The Pacers started the season 16-18 but were 34-14 the rest of the way, winning 13 of their last 16 and 17 of 21 counting the Bucks series. They are on a roll.
The Pacers were 20-18 against teams over .500 while the Cavs were 28-11. The Pacers finished 9th in offensive rating and 14th in defensive rating while the Cavs were 1st in offense and 8th in defense.
The Pacers beat the Bucks 4-1 in the first round, outscoring the Bucks by 5.6 points per game. The Bucks won 48 games but were without Damian Lillard, who went down early in the 3rd game with the series tied 1-1.
The Pacers won the season series against the Cavs 3-1 but the last two games were played after the playoff seedings were decided and the Cavs rested most or all of their starters. The first two games were split, but the Cavs still had LeVert and Niang while Nesmith and Haliburton were out for Indy. So the personnel that will take the court for both teams have never faced each other in the regular season.
Darius Garland is questionable for game 1. Kenny Atkinson said, "There’s some concern there. I could see it go either way. I think it’s something he’s going to have to deal with probably the rest of the playoffs.” Whether Garland can play and whether his level of play will be diminished because of the toe injury is a major concern. The fact that the injury will likely linger for "the rest of the playoffs" means it's not insignificant. There are weeks left if the Cavs get to the Finals.
I’m not going to compare the first round playoff stats because the Cavs and Pacers were playing two different teams. But looking at the season stats…
The Pacers were 7th in points per game, 4th in effective field goal percentage, and 5th in fast break points. They play an uptempo style, ranking 7th in pace. They were only 21st in 3-point rate, but were 7th in 3-point accuracy.
They are the best transition team in the league. They play the five-out, and that’s the hardest thing to guard in basketball. - Atkinson
What jumps out about the Pacers’ offense is how unselfish and balanced they are, ranking 3rd in assists per possession. In the series against the Bucks they had seven players average in double figures - same as in the regular season. Their five starters all averaged from 12-20 points per game. They push the pace and share the ball.
Both teams upped their games in the first round.
The Pacers bring the NBA’s third-best playoff offense, one that dismantled Milwaukee’s defense. The Cavs had the highest team offensive rating in NBA playoff history since 1997. - Chris Fedor
These teams finished 1st and 2nd out of 20 teams in effective field goal percentage in the first round. The points could be coming fast and furious.
One notable weakness of the Pacers’ offense is the lack of offensive rebounding as they ranked second worst in that category during the regular season. If the Cavs can make them miss the first shot they should be in good shape. The Cavs have been vulnerable to great offensive rebounding teams but Indiana is the opposite of that.
Defensively the Pacers were average, ranking 17th in points per game during the regular season. Notably, they were 26th in points in the paint allowed. The Cavs were 8th in points in the paint so they should be able to score from inside. The Cavs have the manpower to exploit the Pacers' biggest defensive weakness.
The Pacers ranked 10th in defending 3’s and 21st defending 2’s, so the Cavs should attack the rim. In two games against Indy Evan Mobley averaged 19 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting 64% from the field and 67% on 3’s. Donovan Mitchell averaged 27 points in two games. Hunter played one game and had 23 points and 11 rebounds in 32 minutes.
Opponents’ 3-point rate against Indy was the 6th lowest so it’s clear most teams preferred to attack them inside, which makes sense as they defend 3’s well but are near the bottom in points allowed in the paint.
According to Brain Windhorst, the Pacers have good depth and speed, great wings, and they can shoot and defend. They have great big men in Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner. They want to play a “five-out” game to open up driving lanes for Tyrese Haliburton. They want to get Mobley away from the basket.
Windy added that the Pacers “wear you down” but that might not work this series since the Cavs are so deep. Coach Rick Carlisle is “old school”. He will set things up early in the series for games 5 and 6. The Pacers are not a perfect team but they present a real challenge according to Windy.
Siakam leads in scoring at 20 ppg followed by Haliburton at 19, Turner and Mathurin at 16, Nesmith at 12, and Toppin and McConnell at 10 off the bench. Unlike Miami which was heavily dependent on Adebayo and Herro the Pacers spread the wealth with a very balanced attack based on a fast pace and scoring in transition.
Siakam and Turner made 39% and 40% of their 3’s during the regular season so their bigs can hit from deep, which draws opposing bigs out of the paint. I imagine the Pacers will put their bigs on the 3-point line to draw out the Cavs’ bigs and allow the Pacers’ wings to drive on Garland and Strus. If Mobley or Allen drop down to help it leaves Siakam or Turner open for a kickout. Like Kenny said, the 5-out is the toughest offense to defend.
The Cavs may have to sit Garland and use Wade and Hunter more than normal to get more length defending their wings. Garland was a significant liability on defense against Miami. I can see Indy trying isolate him on a bigger wing like Haliburton, Mathurin, or Nesmith.
Miami found success, going 12-of-18 from the field with Garland as the primary defender, according to NBA.com matchup data. And every metric says the Cavs were better — significantly — on defense without Garland.
In 63 minutes with him on the court, Cleveland had a flimsy 119.8 defensive rating. In 129 minutes without him, it suffocated the Heat, boasting a 93.3 defensive rating.
The Cavs were 26.5 points better defensively with Garland on the bench; something to keep an eye on. What will Kenny do if the Cavs are much better without Garland because the Pacers are targeting him relentlessly and helping him only creates uncontested 3’s?
The Pacers shot 49% from the field and 37% on 3’s during the regular season, averaging 117.4 ppg. They outscored opponents by 2.3 ppg against 9.8 for the Cavs.
Deandre Hunter could be key for the Cavs.
Over the final three games [of the Miami series], Hunter averaged 17.3 points on 55.2% from the field and 61.5% from 3-point range. He ranked first on the team in plus-minus and fourth in scoring while having a significant impact on defense…the Heat shot just 13-of-35 from the field when guarded by Hunter. That included Herro going 0-for-7 and Andrew Wiggins missing eight of his 11 shots. - Chris Fedor
Fedor noted that when Mobley and Hunter shared the court against Miami, the Cavaliers posted a staggering +31.2 net rating. This combination could provide Cleveland with the defensive versatility to contain Indiana’s multiple threats while maintaining offensive spacing.
Final word from Ethan Sands:
The Cavs and Pacers could deliver one of the most stylistically entertaining series of the postseason.
Two of the best offenses in basketball. Two ascending coaches unafraid to make bold adjustments. And two stars capable of stealing games on their own.
The margins will be thin, tempo frantic, And the winner may not be the team that scores the most — but the one that defends just enough when the shooting eventually cools.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Darius Garland - QUESTIONABLE (toe)
INDIANA
Isaiah Jackson - OUT (achilles)