In case you missed the series of offseason articles, we have you covered:
RCF's Cavs Guide To The Offseason
Evaluating a new Ty Jerome contract
Evaluating a new Sam Merrill contract
Myth vs Facts: Koby's End-Of-Year Press Conference
Well, Koby came out swinging.
All in one day the fates of Ty Jerome, Sam Merrill, Isaac Okoro and the backup point guard position were decided. With one trade, and one re-signing, the Cavs offseason plan came into focus but also created some new questions.
We’ll take you through the busy day that was and preview the busy days to come as the free agency negotiation period opens on Monday, June 30 at 6:00PM (EST) after the current league year officially concludes.
Isaac Okoro for Lonzo Ball
Finances: Cavs send 2 years, $22.8M (with $2.4M worth of incentives); Cavs receive 2 years, $20M (2026-2027 team option).
Logistically, this was a legal trade for the Cavs as a 2nd Apron team because they took back less money than they sent out and did not aggregate (or combine salaries to afford an incoming salary) to do so. For the Bulls, this follows the standard trade matching protocols, and they did not have to worry about taking more money in then they sent out because they were not a 1st or 2nd Apron team.
This was a financially motivated move in a few ways.
For one, the Cavs get off Okoro’s contract and save some money this year. The Cavs will save $1M in going from Okoro to Ball this year and now have the optionality of Ball’s team option next year. If Ball plays great, it’s an easy call. If Ball can’t recover, they can easily decline it and save money on the 2026-2027 cap sheet and/or move his deal at the deadline since it essentially works as an expiring contract.
With 11 players (including their 1st Round pick and Ball’s roster slot) the Cavs project to be $13.3M over the 2nd Apron next year. Without Ball’s salary slot, they drop all the way to $3.3M.
So not only is there a financial safety net with Ball’s team option next year but it increases the year-to-year flexibility from a financial standpoint that the Cavs did not have with Okoro.
The Ball acquisition is also a clear indicator the Cavs were either (or some combination of both) not willing to pay Ty Jerome’s asking price or felt like they were going to get outbid for Jerome on the open market.
What Jerome’s next contract looks like will provide a clearer picture of what the Cavs choices truly were but it’s fair to say the Cavs preferred to pay Ball in the short-term $10M this year with the option next year as opposed to Jerome of what’s likely to be at least $10M AAV over the next two years (Early Bird Rights dictate Jerome had to resign for a minimum of two years with the earliest option year being after year three). Right, wrong or indifferent, that’s the pathway the Cavs chose.
With the later news of the Cavs re-signing Sam Merrill, it opened another wrinkle to these moves. By moving on from Okoro, letting Jerome go, acquiring Ball and re-signing Merrill, it signaled a likely understanding the Cavs had: They could only keep two of Okoro, Merrill and Jerome on the roster next year. The Cavs chose to swap Okoro’s slot for Ball and chose to re-sign Merrill and let Jerome walk.
Now, a lot of this is also under the assumption Jerome wanted to resign. That fact has been provided as a given. There’s nothing to dispute that, and it’s not to disparage Jerome in any way, but the fact is this is Jerome’s best chance to cash in and earn a larger role elsewhere. It’s entirely possible Jerome valued that in his next contract something the Cavs either couldn’t or wouldn’t offer him.
Cost: No draft capital was exchanged.
The Cavs had been shopping Okoro and Dean Wade’s contract for a few weeks now, with some in the local media saying the Cavs would have to attach a sweetener to move Okoro and/or Wade in order to get a deal done. Well, they didn’t.
There were not any draft picks, draft rights or anything else exchanged in this swap. It was a simple one for one swap.
Koby was able to find a usable player with Okoro’s contract, a more team friendly financial contract, and do so without having to trade any assets to do so. Heck, even the Jazz had to attach a future 2nd Round pick to Collin Sexton only to return Jusuf Nurkic.
The other part of the equation is the Cavs did not burn any draft equity in choosing Ball and Merrill over some combination of Jerome, Merrill and Okoro. If the Cavs would have chosen Jerome and Merrill, it would have likely required draft equity to entice a team to take on Okoro’s contract. So, the option to keep Merrill and Jerome may have been costed more financially (chances are Jerome has a higher AAV over more years than Ball and/or Merrill) and costed more asset wise (to facilitate dumping of Okoro’s deal) to do.
Fit: Quite well*.
Let’s be upfront: There’s quite a bit of projection and optimism when it comes to the fit with Ball and the Cavs, and it has all to do with health (hence the asterisk). Ironically, the Cavs are going from one point guard who never played more than 50+ games until this season to one point guard who hasn’t played more than 50 games since 2020-2021. Depending on how you view Ball’s health likely colors how you view this acquisition.
Ball missed the last two years due to injury and just returned about halfway through the 2024-2025 campaign to play 35 games. He missed two seasons after having surgery to repair a meniscus tear and undergo a cartilage transplant that hoped to fix what several other procedures didn’t. Upon his return to play in 2024-2025, Ball missed a collection of games, and was ultimately shut down for the season, with a wrist injury.
So, there’s risk with this fit. If Ball can’t get on the court, $10M is a lot for the Cavs to have on the bench given their current financial state. (However, they were used to $11M being on the bench come playoff time with Okoro… we kid, we kid.) How Cavs fans view Okoro’s jump shot is how Bulls fans view Ball’s health – they’ll believe it when they see it. There’s always glimpses but then some setback happens that makes it feel like you’re riding a roller coaster that both teams wanted to get off.
This is also why the team option on Ball’s contract next year is a critical part of this fit. If it doesn’t work, and Ball can’t stay healthy, the Cavs are able to easily get off it and even parlay it into something else by the trade deadline and do so without any lost assets.
There’s also the Craig Porter Jr angle. With Darius Garland being out to start the season, the Cavs were already going to need someone to step up into a lion share of the minutes. With Ball, there’s also likely to be managing some minutes even when Garland does return. This in between phase affords Porter Jr a tremendous chance to take hold of the opportunity and earn his keep. If it doesn’t work, the Cavs have Ball to soak up the minutes when Garland comes back… and have Garland coming back. If it does work, it only creates a deeper team and takes some pressure off Ball when Garland comes back. It also would allow coach Kenny Atkinson to use Ball in some different ways knowing he has another viable ball-handler in Porter Jr. The Cavs need to know if they can count on Porter Jr, going into his third year on the team, or else there shouldn’t be a spot for him on the roster, period. It’s a threading the needle type move with Garland’s and Ball’s health status that doesn’t leave the Cavs overexposed with risk.
The other potential upside for Ball is he will likely be asked to do less and play less than he ever has in his career. He’s averaged 31.2 minutes per game and even played at 22.2 minutes per game upon returning last year. Jerome played in 19.9 minutes per game during the regular season. The 1392 minutes that Jerome played last year (a career high) would be the second lowest minute total for Ball's career after his 777 minutes in 35 games this year.
But… back to Ball. Health aside, this has the chance to be a very good fit.
The Cavs retain on-ball playmaking, size and some shooting ability, lose some scoring pop and efficiency but gain point of attack defense.
Can Jerome sustain his unbelievably high highs of last year? A TS% of 64.3%, FG% of 51.6% and 3P% of 43.9% are all career highs and way above where he’s historically been at. However, even if he comes close to matching those numbers, and some regression sets in, 58% TS%, 46% FG% and 38% 3P% (Jerome's career marks, and Darius Garland career splits) is still a very good player.
Jerome really took a jump in the scoring category last year going for 30.3 points per 100 possessions after never averaging higher than 21.3 per 100 possession – being that efficient will do it for you but so will a career high 21.4 FGA per 100 possessions.
Ball has historically been a relatively inefficient shooter, not a bad shooter. He’s at sub-40% career on field goals and is at 51.4% TS% though he’s been hovering closer to the low-to-mid 50s after his first two years in the league. But, Ball has never been a shoot first guard averaging just 14.6 FGA per 100 possessions last year and 16 FGA per 100 possessions over his career. The change in play style may lose some scoring punch on the second unit but it may allow for others (Evan Mobley? De’Andre Hunter? Sam Merrill? Jaylon Tyson?) more shots and a greater opportunity to step forth.
While Jerome shot the ball lights out last year, Ball still can shoot it well. He’s a career 36% three-pointer shooter on good volume (9.2 3PA per 100 possessions) and shot 39% in the two years leading up to his injury. His three-point shot dipped last year making 34.4% on 11.7 3PA per 100 possessions (posting his highest three-point rate as he looked to regain his lower body). The biggest change, and point to watch, will be catch-and-shoot opportunities. Ball shot 32.5% on catch-and-shoot 3’s last year compared to 45.3% for Jerome. If there’s hope, it’s that Ball regains form as he shot 42.5% on catch-and-shoot 3’s his season in Chicago before getting hurt. Also known for his pull-up shot making, Jerome was 96th percentile on 3’s last year. Ball? 87th percentile.
To that point, the one area to watch for Ball will be his finishing – a sign of where his athleticism is at and how comfortable he is with it. He took a career low 7% of his shot attempts within 3-feet while being closer to 20% for his career. He also shot a lower-than-career rate at 52.9% as opposed to his career 57.8% rate.
Jerome’s playmaking created highlights throughout the year – he finished with a 24.5% AST rate (what percentage of teammates field goals were assisted while on the floor). He was the catalysts of many second unit runs and helped lead the term ‘Cavalanche’. He also did so on a very impressive 11.9% TOV rate while having a 23.6% usage rate – so not only was Jerome efficiently using possessions, but he was also playing low mistake basketball within his playmaking.
With Ball, playmaking has always been a strong suit. He’s posted a 25.5% AST on his career although that dipped in his return to play last year to a career low 18.9%. His additional flair, or carelessness with the ball, shows up in his turnover rate as it’s a bit higher than Jerome’s despite a lower usage rate. Ball owns a career 17.6% TOV rate but posted a 13.9% TOV rate last year. His usage rate historically was at 18% and posted a 13.9% usage rate last year. Is this who Ball is coming off surgery or did the return to game require some additional feel and conditioning that will boost those numbers while also being in a better situation? The Cavs are hoping for the latter.
If there’s a change in playmaking that we’ll also see in Ball and Jerome is how they make their decisions. A criticism of the Cavs guards throughout the year is how long they held the ball especially during the playoffs. Jerome graded poorly in many of those rates throughout the year – 20th percentile in quick decision-making percentage and 22nd percentile in quick decision-making pass percentage. Some of that is just who Jerome is – he likes to hold the ball, survey the defense, use his ‘Nash dribble’ where possible and go through a series of fakes and pivots. With Ball, it’s quite the opposite. He ranked 82nd percentile in quick decision-making percentage and 94th percentile in quick decision-making pass percentage. When Ball saw it, he connected and kept the ball moving without holding the offense up.
One other thing to watch is how Ball passes off drives and cuts. This comes up to the benefit and detriment to both players. With Jerome, he was a willing playmaker but also a willing shot taker. In the Indiana series, it worked to his detriment with tunnel vision. On the year, he was 63rd percentile in drive passout rate and 78th percentile in drive assist rate – certainly not bad but certainly not Lonzo Ball. Being more of a pass first guard, and less looking for his own shot, Ball had a drive passout rate of 92nd percentile and drive assist rate of 85th percentile. Pair Ball with Merrill, Strus and/or Hunter on the second unit and watch them flourish.
Perhaps the biggest advantage the Cavs gain going from Jerome to Ball is the on-ball defense. Defense has always been a calling card for Ball, and that returned with his game last year.
There were a few opportunities for the Cavs to get better with point of attack defense and the point guard spot with Jerome’s free agency was one of them.
Now, Jerome wasn’t a poor defender but he’s not Ball. Now, despite a 74th percentile perimeter isolation grade last year Jerome also benefited from easy matchups to the tune of being 27th percentile in matchup difficulty. So, Jerome had good perimeter isolation numbers but did so against weaker competition. With Ball, he had a 91st percentile perimeter isolation defense grade with a 93rd percentile matchup difficulty grade – so Ball took on really hard assignments and did really well against them. The bulk of his time was spent guarding shot creators and primary ball handlers but his size (6’5.25” with 6’9” wingspan) allow him to scale up lineups which is something Jerome couldn’t do. It’s safe to say Kenny is likely to test that with three guard lineups including Ball and some combination of Merrill, Donovan Mitchell, and Darius Garland.
Where Jerome really popped last year was with a 2.7% steal rate which is the highest of his career. It showed up as he had a 93rd percentile pickpocket which measures the number of steals per 75 possessions. He also ranked 96th percentile in deflections and 92nd percentile in passing lane defense. The question for Jerome is, can he keep it up?
Ball has always been a very disruptive defender – he’s got a career 2.3% steal rate and posted a career high 2.8% rate last year. He too was up there in pickpocket rating with a 90th percentile rate and a 92nd percentile deflections rate. Ball has shown the knack of the years to be this type of defender so it shouldn’t be a concern if this would regress like it would with Jerome.
The one interesting part of Ball’s defense is his interior defense a la Craig Porter Jr. Ball had an 81st percentile rim protection grade, a 93rd percentile rim deterrence grade and even a 77th percentile post defense grade. So not only is this a guard who is going to offer a different look defensively than Jerome he’s also someone who will be able to hold up on switches due to his length and strength more so than Jerome did.
In the end, all of this comes down to Ball’s health.
IF he can stay healthy and, in the rotation, the Cavs really have the chance to benefit from the different skillset that Ball brings that better meshes with the on-ball, offensive players (with defensive questions) in the starting backcourt. (And we didn’t even get into what this may mean for Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in bringing out their skillsets with a guard like Ball.)
IF he can’t stay healthy, it will be a disappointment especially if Jerome thrives elsewhere. But the Cavs have a built-in security blanket with Porter Jr and with Ball’s salary that is designed to protect against risk.
Folks wanted to see Koby change up the game plan, and he did that here. This move carries plenty of risk, but it also has the chance of being a Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso type move for the Cavs – swapping a former lottery pick who ran his course with his current team for a better fit, and strong point of attack defender that can be a key piece for a playoff push.
Re-Signing Sam Merrill
Finances: 4 year, $38M deal with no option years. TBD on any partial guarantees and annual raise structure (maximum allowed is 8%).
Talk about a move out of left field.
With the acquisition of Ball securing Okoro’s salary slot, and not simply dumping it, and with the talk of the 2nd Apron, it seemed like a foregone conclusion it might spell the end of Merrill’s time in Cleveland. Even the local media said a “pessimistic tone” was emerging from the organization in being able to retain one and/or both. Welp.
We knew Kenny loved him some Sam, but this is a lot of love.
We evaluated a Sam Merrill contract earlier in the offseason and the deal Merrill got fell in line with the historical comparisons for his position, age and performance albeit being on the very high end of the comparison side.
The high end of the salary comparisons, with a bit looser on the statistical profiles, saw their contractual value average around 5% of the salary cap. Merrill’s projected first year salary will be about 5% of the salary cap and throughout the course of his contract (based on projected salary cap numbers).
Assuming for a standard 8% maximum annual salary increase year-over-year, Merrill contract likely looks something like this:
| Year 1 | $8,482,143 |
| Year 2 | $9,160,714 |
| Year 3 | $9,839,286 |
| Year 4 | $10,517,857 |
Merrill’s deal will now take him through the 2028-2029 season which only has Mobley and Allen under contract with Tyson set to hit restricted free agency.
There’s only been seven players to receive 4+ year deals from Koby Altman during his tenure: Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Max Strus and now Sam Merrill.
Cost: The Cavs did not have to give up anything to retain Merrill just cap space.
The Cavs will be over the 2nd Apron this year by about $16.1M and next year by about $13.3M after this signing (using a projected contract structure).
Did it cost the Cavs Jerome? That’s dependent on what perspective you have coming into this article.
Fit: Well…
We know what Merrill does well: He’s dependable, shoots the shit out of the ball (career 38.6% three-point shooter on 13.9 3PA per 100 possessions), showed more playmaking and off the dribble chops then in years past (still not great though but enough to pair with his gravity to make it interesting) and dramatically improved as a defender (55th percentile on perimeter isolation defense, 93rd percentile in ball screen navigation and Cavs were 85th percentile defensively with him on the floor).
If you want to read the full profile and statistical breakdown on how Merrill developed on the court last year, we covered it all in here.
However, what makes the fit a bit questionable is what it means for lineup construction moving forward. For one, they may not be finished making moves that will make this make more sense. For two, there may be a philosophical belief in playing small (sigh).
Merrill has a positive impact on lineups – no doubt about it. The Cavs were 98th percentile with him on the court in the playoffs compared to 72nd percentile without him. And surprisingly, the defense took a huge drop (81st percentile with him on, 28th percentile with him off) in the playoffs. Not what you expected from the sharpshooter but speaks to the improvement he made on defense.
But paying Merrill $9.5M AAV as a 2nd Apron team means you’re going to find playing time for him. And with Ball making $10M, Strus making $15.9M and Hunter making $23.3M that’s a lot of money committed to spots around Mitchell and Garland and not a lot of true wings – and that’s part of the problem here.
The Ball acquisition seemed like it was a step in the right direction – put more size around Mitchell and Garland, put Hunter at the starting SF spot, bring Strus off the bench and slide Tyson in minutes between Strus and Ball/Porter Jr. That’s well suited to mitigate Mitchell and Garland’s weaknesses.
But then Merrill happened.
You could simply insert Merrill into Tyson’s role and call it day but there’s not enough minutes to go around to match everyone’s pay. There are also not many resources available, trade or free agency, which would allow Hunter to play down more minutes on the wing. Which means…
More Hunter minutes at the 4.
The acquisition of Hunter was hailed as the wing they needed to seal the deal but then (somewhat due to injuries) Hunter + the core four only played 37 minutes together the entire regular season. When they did, they were +25.7 net rating with a 100 defensive rating. That’s pretty damn good – more cowbell, please.
There’s a chance we could see Kenny lean into Hunter starting with a full offseason, be the first sub, and split his minutes with Wade at the 4. There’s a chance.
But between the 1-3 slots there’s 144 minutes to split. After you go through the averages of every player last year (Mitchell, Garland, Merrill, Strus and Ball filling Jerome’s role), it leaves about 17-20 minutes on the wing during the regular season. During the playoffs, that may get squeezed further.
Going by the minutes Mobley and Allen received during the regular season, it leaves about 35-38 minutes available behind them. With the only other “big” on the roster being Dean Wade, there’s no room for Wade to soak up all those minutes. Even when healthy, he averaged about 21 minutes per game which leaves an additional 14-17 minutes per game behind Mobley and Allen. And the question is, do you really want Wade playing 21 minutes?
We saw Kenny’s comfortability in bringing Hunter off the bench as the 4 throughout his early Cavaliers tenure, and based off the current lineup construction, that may continue.
Hunter can play the four, it’s just a matter of give and take. Where his size and lack of rebounding fits better at the 3 it shows up defensively at the 4. In those minutes his teams were 31st percentile, 9th percentile and 19th percentile defensively. Not great. Now offensively, they were great: 97th percentile, 45th percentile and 80th percentile. So, if you prefer offense over defense, Hunter at the 4 is a good thing. If you prefer better defense, Hunter at the 4 is not such a good thing.
And it also may get down to the Cavs philosophical belief they can play small which is part of the concern.
We saw Kenny comfortably trot Merrill out there with Mitchell and Garland. Merrill at SF was in 2 of the 8 most used lineups last year – they were 23rd percentile and 44th percentile in on/off court differential.
Strus as a starter can work versus about 90% of the teams in the playoffs but when it gets down to who they need to beat, the size advantage that Hunter provides and amplifies can be useful. Strus + the core four in the last two playoffs was 15th percentile and 30th percentile in on/off differential. Sense a trend here?
Now look at the trends the other way. In the playoffs, the backcourt pairing of Mitchell and Garland has led to defensive percentiles of 55th and 78th when paired together. Pretty solid, right? But pair them with length and/or defense on the wing and see what happens: Wade, 100th percentile (23-24); Okoro (100th percentile 22-23, and 71st percentile 23-24); and LeVert (32nd percentile 22-23 and 84th percentile 23-24). The sample sizes are small, but the lineups are not. Putting more size around the backcourt can have a positive effect on the defense and better protect Mitchell and Garland.
Part of the frustration is the Cavs have not consistently used one of their biggest (literally) advantages – Mobley and Allen. Instead of amplifying that advantage, and mitigating any disadvantage in the backcourt, and by continuing to go big at other spots they’ve used their two bigs as a safety net to go smaller. The problem with that scenario is it puts so much pressure on Allen and Mobley as lynchpins behind everything that injury, foul trouble or motor trouble (as it pertains to Allen) has the potential to undue it all.
The reason teams like the Thunder and Pacers can play small consistently is because they have the positional POA defense, length and rebounding up and down the lineup to to withstand smaller lineups. The Cavs don’t really have that. So, when they want to go small, it really feels small.
Now, this is just someone writing on the internet versus the 2024-2025 Coach of the Year Kenny Atkinson – we’ll defer to the COY.
But bringing Merrill back at that rate, without any other help upfront, tends to skew the Cavs lineups to being small which is the opposite of what most hoped to see happen this offseason.
The issue on its face isn’t the fit of Merrill itself – we know Merrill can find himself a part of effective lineups, and his shooting is always welcome. But what it means for the roster of the roster is a concern, and if that is truly building this team out to be in the best position possible.
So, what next?
The Cavs made a few roster decisions that help finalize the remaining roster slots.
Chuma Okeke’s team option was declined, opening a roster spot and saving $2.5M off the books this year.
Luke Travers was extended a qualifying offer as a two-way player making him a restricted free agent. If a team wants to offer him a contract, it must be for a standard NBA contract and not a two-way deal. The Cavs would have the right to match it. Otherwise, they can sign him for a one- or two-year deal.
Emoni Bates also has an extended a qualifying offer as a two-way player which is to be determined. Per CBA rules, this is the last year Bates can spend as a two-way player as the CBA caps three consecutive seasons on a two-way with the same team as the maximum. If the Cavs wanted to convert his deal to a standard contract they could at any time.
Nae’Qwan Tomlin is currently already under contract as a two-way player.
Strus and Garland become eligible for extensions at the onset of the new year but those may be discussions for a later date as both have more than one year remaining on their deals.
As it stands, here is what the Cavs financial position looks like.
Given that Koby has opened the season with 14 rostered players in just about every season in recent memory, it’s a good bet they’re likely to start with 14 again especially the current tax penalties. That leaves two open roster spots.
There continue to be reports of the Cavs shopping Wade. This has been a constant since the beginning of the offseason. But with the recent Merrill re-signing as we laid out, Wade kind of becomes more important than he did before the Ball and Merrill moves. If the Cavs plan to move Wade, it either likely will be for someone who can fill his minutes, or they have someone else lined up to be able to fill those minutes.
If you want to see what Wade can get the Cavs on the open market, start at Wade’s salary (#202) and work your way down from there. Being in the 2nd Apron, the Cavs cannot take back more than 100% salary matching in a trade. They can take multiple players back, or one player back, it just can’t be a dollar more. As you start to work your way through the list it’s either really old players without much use or really young players with greater value than Wade. The likeliest of pairings are someone like Drew Eubanks from the Clippers (who may be waived due to his non-guaranteed deal) or Duop Reath (who also has a non-guaranteed deal) from the Blazers. Both fill a need at center, and save the Cavs money, but require another move to backfill Wade’s power forward minutes – it’s like one big game of wack-a-mole.
(If you need a reminder on all the trade do's and don'ts in the 2nd Apron, we have you covered here.)
Outside of a Wade trade, the Cavs would look to be taking a bigger swing such as Jarrett Allen or Darius Garland. By all intents and purposes that doesn’t look like the play right now. The Cavs seem set on improving around the core in year two under Kenny and reevaluate by the deadline.
The player to watch that could be interesting is Max Strus. The Cavs love Strus. He plays a critical role as a spacer, secondary playmaker and adds grit. He’s only one of the few Cavs who showed up against the Pacers. But, his spot becomes a bit more expendable with Merrill now signed long-term and Hunter available to take over the starting small forward spot. Would the Pacers want to make room for Jarace Walker and swap Obi Toppin for Strus? Would the Mavericks want to add more shooting around their core and swap an expiring in PJ Washington for Strus? While unlikely, those are the types of larger moves the Cavs may consider to rebalance their roster after the Ball and Merrill additions.
But onto free agency
The Cavs do not have access to any signing exceptions and can only sign players to veteran minimums. Remember: While the players are due their minimum salary as dictated by their years of experience, for any players of 2+ years’ experience it only counts against the salary cap as a player of 2 years’ experience. This flattening of cap hits is to ensure older players are not phased out for younger, cheaper players.
The Cavs will also have access to any player that is bought out which flips during the regular season. During the regular season, being a 2nd Apron team, the Cavs cannot sign a player who earned more than the NTMLE.
With that, here are a few free agent targets to watch:
If the Cavs want further point guard insurance…
Kyle Lowry: Okay, so Lowry may not be able to play anymore (he looked cooked in Philly) but this signing is more like a Tristan Thompson signing but for the guards. With all the talk of grit-and-grind needed on the team what better than a veteran signing of grit and grind himself Kyle Lowry? Lowry was about headed to the broadcasting booth but looks like he could be interested in one more year in Philadelphia. If they don’t want him, would he be interested in going elsewhere? The Cavs have to be smart about their roster spots but given the age of their guards, this might be more of an investment in Proctor and Porter Jr then it is on the court play. Lowry will be 40-years old, and it shows – his FG% dropped to 35%, his 3P% to 33%, his USG% was a paltry 10%, his AST% was at an all-time low, and his REB% was at rock bottom. He may be able to still play a spot minute here or there but the veteran leadership he could provide, while providing a safety blanket, could be invaluable.
Cory Joseph: If the Cavs still want some veteran insurance with Garland set to start the season on the bench, Ball’s uncertainty health wise and Porter Jr still being green, Joseph would be a great option. Kenny has familiarity with Joseph going back to their Golden State days, and Joseph has familiarity with helping a young team out in Orlando – could it be a match? Joseph looked cooked in Golden State and then had a mini renaissance in Orlando when called upon. He parlayed it into some late season run and even playoff run where he was out on the floor to hold the fort down offensively, not make any mistakes defensively and hit open shots when they come his way. At this point, most of what made Joseph’s career has fallen off – he’s never been a great creator, or isolation player (his USG% is almost the same as his TO%), his defense as a lot better when he had better athleticism and the ancillary role playing stats (REB%, STL%, BLK%) are just okay. But as the Cavs are looking for a potential veteran to help bring along Proctor and Porter Jr, and not stand in the way when it’s their turn, Joseph would be a fantastic option.
Spencer Dinwiddie: Here’s a wild card. The Cavs may not have minutes for Dinwiddie, and he may get in the way of Porter Jr’s potential path to minutes but if the Cavs are looking to add size and replace the scoring punch lost from Jerome, Dinwiddie is about as good as any option on a minimum. Dinwiddie is one Atkinson’s original projects in Brooklyn that saw him take off but there were also questions how the two ended things on Kenny’s way out. Time heals all wounds, and perhaps it’s all water under the bridge at this point but returning to a coach and system that believed and benefited him may be attractive. Teams that bring in Dinwiddie are bringing him for one reason and one reason only: to score. Dinwiddie’s strength is scoring but really self created scoring. He’s a guard in a wings body that can handle it and provide on-ball and secondary playmaking. His AST% has geared down from the mid-30s in Brooklyn to the lower 20s in Dallas as he’s developed tunnel vision later in his career. Dinwiddie’s isolation and one-on-one metrics are still elite – that is his bread and butter. His shot comes and goes as his streakiness does as he’s never been a terribly efficient scorer (41.4% FG%, 33.3% 3P% for his career). His game has shifted more to the mid-range and perimeter and away from the basket as his early career shots came at the expense of defense inside. Now, it’s more pull-ups and self-created shots as even his catch-and-shoot metrics are 20th to 30th percentile. Dinwiddie has historically been a poor defender despite his size advantage as a guard. He doesn’t really rebound, he’s not attentive on the ball and his overall defensive impact is typically a negative. But, he scores and not a lot of players can get their shot and score like him. While he may chase a larger role elsewhere, it’s one to watch given the connection.
If the Cavs want further wing help…
Torrey Craig: Another man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Craig was acquired by Boston at the deadline in hopes of providing some veteran wing depth…. aand was a good addition on the bench. Craig got little burn with Boston and is on the back end of his career now looking for his fourth team in four years. How much is left in the tank is the question but if he were to be signed to the Cavs the hope is they wouldn’t have to find out. Craig built his path like that of Dean Wade and Craig Porter – undrafted to rotation level player for a playoff team before moving on elsewhere. The draw to Craig is his 3&D skillset – he’s a career 35.4% three-pointer shooter and has versatility to guard most positions on the floor. He's not an extremely disruptive defender, although has posted a 2.6 BLK% rate as a wing, but he’s always been a solid positional defender. Offensively, he’s not going to use a lot of possessions or create for himself, but he’ll hit a spot-up shot when he’s asked. Craig may not have much left in the tank and will likely be resigned to a veteran minimum anywhere he goes but his experience and skillset will likely have him ring chasing somewhere next year. This would be like the Javonte Green signing but before the regular season.
Lonnie Walker: Walker is one of those players who every time you look him up you see how old he is and can’t believe it. Prepare for it again as Walker is younger than Jarrett Allen at 26.5 years old. Despite never being a character issue and having athleticism and off-the-ball shot creation, Walker hasn’t been able to stick. He’s played with four different NBA teams his last four seasons and has even had a stint overseas. But everywhere he goes he scores. He’s a career 53.1% TS% (which speaks a bit to his inefficiency issues) but is comfortably in the 21-27 points per 100 possession range for his career. He’s comfortable creating his shot and despite his inefficiencies shot wise he’s relatively careful with the ball – career 8.7 TOV% rate. Walker’s shot has been up and down as he scaled back from a 38% and 40% 3P shooter to a 31.4% shooter all the way back up to 38.4% -- which shot the next team will get is anyone’s guess but it’s in there if a team can find it. Walker has found a little bit of mid-career playmaking with 16.5% and 11.5% assist rate the last two years – could that expand with Kenny? If Walker was a better defender or got to the free-throw line more he likely would have had more of a role but a relatively efficient score first wing who doesn’t scale up, doesn’t rebound and doesn’t produce stocks has a fairly limited market… and his size is okay, nothing special. With that said, for a team like the Cavs limited on resources taking a shot on a wing entering his prime with shot creation isn’t a bad thing especially if they’re worried about offense walking out the door with Ty Jerome.
Amir Coffey: Kenny connect – Atkinson coached him for his lone year in Los Angeles when Coffey was a rookie, Since then, it’s taken a few years for Coffey to find his role, but he found one under Ty Lue. His minutes have increased almost year over year since he popped in 2022 and ended with a career high this year at 24.3 minutes per game. Lue has really trusted Coffey in a lot of different ways and tasked him with a variety of defensive assignments (70th percentile matchup difficulty) which has played out in a mixed manner. He posted a 72nd percentile perimeter isolation defense grade but has posted three straight negative DBPM, and his on/off defensive splits have been porous. He doesn’t rebound at all, and his stocks rate is borderline offensive (1.1% STL%, 0.4 BLK%). His offensive value is centered around his shot as he doesn’t have a lot of self-creation, his passing is mediocre, and his free-throw rate is just okay. He shot 40.9% and 38% on 3’s the last two years which saw him earn more minutes. His size is just okay – 6’6.75” with 6’7.25” wingspan but his shot and experience defensively could provide a valuable stopgap behind the Cavs rotational players.
If the Cavs want a big who can play either big spot…
Larry Nance Jr: The dream fit for just about every fan out there. If there was a king to return home this offseason, it might be LNJ not LBJ. Nance is the most prolific rotation player on this list and could walk into a playoff rotation tomorrow and nobody would bat an eye. Injuries and a jammed up center rotation robbed Nance of a 2024-2025 season or else he might be demanding more money and a bigger role elsewhere. There’s not much to take away from his 463 minutes that you didn’t already know aside from he can still really make a positive impact. The interesting part of Nance’s game is he’s played a lot more center minutes the last three years then he had ever before – 62%, 98% and 81% of his minutes in each of the last three seasons came there. It’s partly due to the evolving game and his skillset being a match but also a credit to his malleability. Nance’s rebound has never been his strong suit, but he’s kept up his stocks (2% STL% and 2.6% BLK%) last year which has always been part of his reactive, disruptive defensive game. He’s still shown his ability to facilitate some with a 11.3 AST% and do so in an efficient manner (only 9.1% TOV rate). Nance has found the late career jumper that Channing Frye did as he’s shot 44.7% and 41.5% on 3's in back-to-back years. Granted, it’s come on a total of 141 attempts, but he’s been more willing to let it fly than ever and it’s benefited him. The Cavs need someone who can float between positions and fit with either big, and Nance is just about as good of a fit as you can hope. We know the connection between the player, the family and the city, and can only hope for a return tour. The only question is how big of a market will Nance have and will the Cavs minimum salary offer stand in the way of bringing him home.
Chris Boucher: It’ll be interesting to see what his market is as he’s been in Toronto for the last seven years and is hitting free agency at 32 years old. Boucher is like the Thomas Bryant version of the 4/5 tweener where what you’re getting with him is the ability to stretch the defense (36.3% on 10.8 3PA per 100 possessions last year) and cause issues at the rim (2.8% BLK%) but anything on top of that is a bonus. His rebounding is just okay, he can’t really create shots for himself, his frame limits what kind of lineups you can go small with him and while he blocks shots well it doesn’t always mean strong defense at the rim (65th percentile rim protection). Despite all this, teams are really good when he’s on the floor. The Raptors had a positive plus-minus of at least +4.7 in five of the last six years. That’s not anything to scoff at. Perhaps it’s because he’s doesn’t turn the ball over despite using a decent number of possessions and carries his own weight defensively while hitting his spot up looks (75th percentile on C&S 3’s last year). If the Cavs miss out on Nance, Boucher wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize at all.
Trey Lyles: A former lottery pick had to bounce around, play in San Antonio and Denver before making his way to Sacramento to find success and resurrect his career – go figure. Lyles always had talent and was a good player, but no team could quite figure out what to do with him – is a ‘tweener forward? Is he a big? Can he shoot? Lyles found a home in Sacramento especially next to Domantas Sabonis. While this year was a down year, the two years prior they had net ratings of +9.4 and +3.2 together. Lyles also found his shot, shooting 36% on nearly 700 attempts over the last three seasons. Playing a bulk of his minutes at the 4, Lyles doesn’t have great size, he doesn’t rebound the ball well (still better than Georges Niang), isn’t an overly effective passer, doesn’t collect a lot of stocks (1.5 STL%, 1.7 BLK%) and has a career 13.4 PER. So how the heck is he good? He’s like a chameleon, adapting to whatever the offense or defense needs at the time he’s in a lineup. There’s a value in being malleable, and a connector, and that best describes Lyles. He was 67th percentile in offensive portability (how well a player would do with any four players) and 82nd percentile in defensive versatility. So basically, plug Lyles in any lineup and he’ll find a way to make an impact – that’s a skill. Lyles doesn’t pop off the page but for a team needing some minutes covered at the four, he would provide a reliable option that can hit shots, be dependable and not make mistakes – they could do a lot worse. (Sidenote – Who does CraftedNBA have as his closest similarity score overall? Jabari Smith Jr).
If the Cavs want a backup center…
Mason Plumlee: Never too old to grab a rebound or block a shot, Plumlee is a year older than Tristan Thompson but somehow a more relevant NBA big man. He’s bounced around 5 different teams over the last 6 years because he’s a usable, low maintenance center that can eat minutes in a heartbeat. His rebound rate is fantastic (28.4% would have led the Cavs), he can still block shots (his 3.4% would have been 2nd), he’s still adept with the ball (13.6% assist rate) and is efficient around the rim (64.5% TS%, 88th percentile rim FG%). Somehow, he’s never managed a negative DBPM in his career but has managed a negative OBPM in 3 of the last 4 years. Chalk it up to being a limited offensive player (78% of his shots are within 3 feet) and a high turnover rate (18.6%), and in today’s game you’ll see why. Despite all the gaudy box score numbers, Plumlee has struggled to make it into an impact with just one year over 50th percentile net on/off over the last 5 years. He can put up numbers, but do they really impact winning? For a veteran minimum, the Cavs could do a lot worse. He can eat up minutes, rebounds and block shots when needed and provide a similar look to Allen should things go awry. He can clear the boards, protect the guards, and still operate out of the handoffs or short rolls when called upon. If Plumlee is game, he should be at the top of the Cavs list.
Kevon Looney: Can Kenny work his magic and lure him away from the Bay just as the Cavs did with Kenny? Looney is somehow still just 29 even though it seems like he’s been around forever. Looney has played his entire 10-year career in Golden State so it may be hard to get him out of the Bay but if Kenny it certainly could, it would be worth a look. While Looney has never been imposing, or athletically advanced, he’s made a career of positioning, high basketball IQ and effort. He’s turned himself into a very good defensive player posting a 79th percentile defensive EPM last year which is right in line with Wendell Carter Jr and Brandon Clarke. Looney cleans the glass well (26.9 DREB% last year), can block shots (3.1% BLK%) and ranked 93rd in CraftedNBA’s rim defense metric. Looney’s value offensively has always been staying around the boards and keeping the ball moving. His 98th percentile offensive rebound rate shows his ability to create extra possessions and had an 84th percentile passer rating – both valued qualities for this team. Like Plumlee, get Looney away from the basket and he’s less comfortable. He’s also a career 60% FT shooter. But, for what the Cavs need, an experience veteran who has still shown high productivity when given minutes should be at the top of their veteran list.
Thomas Bryant: How would Bryant like to join the other side? After being tossed from Miami to Indiana during the season, Bryant ended up playing key role in the playoffs and even Finals. It seemed like he might have found a home after bouncing around with five teams over the last four seasons, but his role was more so a stopgap then a long-term piece. Enter the Cavs. Still only 28, Bryant has a bit of a different skillset than the other two centers mentioned and then what the Cavs currently have. He’s an okay rebounder, that isn’t comfortable handling or facilitating to any extent and doesn’t have much of a post-game. But what he does have is an ability to be a rim deterrent (3.9% BLK% and 68th percentile rim defense) and stretch the defense (career 34.6% three-pointer shooter on 4 3PA per 100 possessions). Bryant is a ball of activity, sometimes to his own detriment where his mind moves too fast for his feet and decision making, but has a skillset that teams tend to attract to because they all think they can fix him. The Pacers did the best job in harnessing him and it paid off. If the Cavs could do it, it could pay off for them too.
With two roster spots, major holes up front and limited ways to fix those roster holes, Koby has his work cut out for him. He’s shown the ability to thread the needle with the De’Andre Hunter and Lonzo Ball trade and will need to do it again in free agency.
We’ve seen Donovan Mitchell pitch in to recruit before, and may need him to do it again to seal the deal as the Cavs are ring chasing and looking for some ring chasers to join them
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