Which other MLB players could potentially join 500 HR club?

[Alabuckeye]

Can Josey average 30 homers for the next 11 years? If so, he's a candidate.

 

[Phills14]

Off topic but Cy Young’s record of 511 wins is likely untouchable. Interesting article about his career:

How Pitcher Cy Young Achieved an 'Awe-inspiring' Record For MLB Wins

The Hall of Famer won 511 games, but that's not his only untouchable record.

www.history.com

I've always like Old Hoss Radbourn... in 1884 he started 73 games and came in to save 2 games for 75 appearances. He recorded the last out in EVERY one of those 75 games. He pitched 73 complete games. He won 59 games that year. 678 innings and a 1.38 ERA.

Footnotes of Baseball History: Charles "Old Hoss" Radbourn’s Insane 1884 Season and a Photographic First

The 19th century pitcher who holds the record for most wins surprisingly isn’t famous for this photo

www.azsnakepit.com

Also, his twitter handle is pretty damn funny.

 

[CATS44]

To hit 500 you have to be very good, be very lucky, and play a long time.

David Ortiz hit 541 homers.

Thru his age 25 season, he hit 38...one for every 32 plate appearances. For his career he hit one in every 18.6 plate appearances.

Thru his year 25 season, with a month to go, Franmil has hit 86...one for every 16.5 PAs.

Franmil hit 37 dingers in 2019. Ortiz didn't hit that many until he was 28, when he hit 41. He went on to hit at least 37 four more times, including his last two seasons. His big years were ages 28-30, when he hit 41, 47, and 54.

The odds are strongly against Franmil hitting 500, but they are a lot better than Ortiz' at the same age.

 

[sportscoach]

To hit 500 you have to be very good, be very lucky, and play a long time.

David Ortiz hit 541 homers.

Thru his age 25 season, he hit 38...one for every 32 plate appearances. For his career he hit one in every 18.6 plate appearances.

Thru his year 25 season, with a month to go, Franmil has hit 86...one for every 16.5 PAs.

Franmil hit 37 dingers in 2019. Ortiz didn't hit that many until he was 28, when he hit 41. He went on to hit at least 37 four more times, including his last two seasons. His big years were ages 28-30, when he hit 41, 47, and 54.

The odds are strongly against Franmil hitting 500, but they are a lot better than Ortiz' at the same age.

Reyes definitely has the power, but is he gonna be able to stay healthy long enough and keep up the bat speed to stay in the pros that long?

To get to the 500 mark, you have to have the power, the swing speed and the ability to stay healthy enough, long enough to play in enough games, while keeping those skills up. Ortiz still had a good bat when he retired.. Ortiz also always hit for a better avg than Reyes has proven plus took walks. Reyes isn't known for taking walks...

 

[CATS44]

Reyes definitely has the power, but is he gonna be able to stay healthy long enough and keep up the bat speed to stay in the pros that long?

To get to the 500 mark, you have to have the power, the swing speed and the ability to stay healthy enough, long enough to play in enough games, while keeping those skills up. Ortiz still had a good bat when he retired.. Ortiz also always hit for a better avg than Reyes has proven plus took walks. Reyes isn't known for taking walks...

I agree on all counts. Ortiz was good, lucky, and played a looong time.

But we are only talking about home runs. In spite being a better all around hitter and taking his walks, Ortiz didn't hit as many homeruns per plate appearance...and at the same point in their respective careers, his HR/PA was half of Franmils.

I'm not arguing in any way that Franmil will come close to 500. But I am saying that it is not out of the question.

 

[sportscoach]

I agree on all counts. Ortiz was good, lucky, and played a looong time.

But we are only talking about home runs. In spite being a better all around hitter and taking his walks, Ortiz didn't hit as many homeruns per plate appearance...and at the same point in their respective careers, his HR/PA was half of Franmils.

I'm not arguing in any way that Franmil will come close to 500. But I am saying that it is not out of the question.

You cannot ever rule out someone with Reyes' power when it comes to 500 HRs, but it's hard to put money on him cause he doesn't take pitches and whatnot like an Ortiz.

 

[CATS44]

You cannot ever rule out someone with Reyes' power when it comes to 500 HRs, but it's hard to put money on him cause he doesn't take pitches and whatnot like an Ortiz.

Maybe, but the question still isn't taking pitches or batting average or OBP. Its strictly hitting home runs...and Franmil has done it at a better pace, by a significant margin, than Ortiz.

Franmil has also been a better overall hitter than Ortiz thru age 25 by a fair margin. Ortiz improved. Will Franmil?

There is one more consideration.

Franmil will be more than 50 home runs ahead of Ortiz at the same age by the end of the season. Thats a career season's worth of taters.

 

[sportscoach]

Maybe, but the question still isn't taking pitches or batting average or OBP. Its strictly hitting home runs...and Franmil has done it at a better pace, by a significant margin, than Ortiz.

Franmil has also been a better overall hitter than Ortiz thru age 25 by a fair margin. Ortiz improved. Will Franmil?

There is one more consideration.

Franmil will be more than 50 home runs ahead of Ortiz at the same age by the end of the season. Thats a career season's worth of taters.

Ortiz also played into his age 40 season... Can Franmil play enough years as well? If he regresses in his 30s, I don't think his current skillset says he's going to make it all those years...

 

[CATS44]

I dont think any 25 yr old has much of a chance to reach 500 homers....because Father Time and/or attrition almost always strike before a player can play long enough.

Consider Ortiz, who got to 500 at age 39. To get from 38 at age 25 to merely 500 at age 39, he had to average 33 homers for 14 years. The 33 isn't that big of a deal, but the 14 years IS.

If you pro rate last year and the rest of 2021, Franmil will have averaged about 31 homers per full season...and have 92. At that pace he would have to play thru age 38 to have a shot. If he averaged 33, like Ortiz, he'd have to play thru age 37 to have a shot.

The odds are fair that Franmil can average 31-33 per year. The odds are really bad that he can play that long.

Thats why 500 is a big deal. If it was easy, nobody would care.

 

[xmasbuck]

Ortiz also played into his age 40 season... Can Franmil play enough years as well? If he regresses in his 30s, I don't think his current skillset says he's going to make it all those years...

did ortiz ever do anything other than DH? wonder if that would effect the years one of these guys can play - and as it is, frannie's been able to get dinged up while dh'ing

 

[sportscoach]

did ortiz ever do anything other than DH? wonder if that would effect the years one of these guys can play - and as it is, frannie's been able to get dinged up while dh'ing

He played a few games at 1B, but he isn't as a good of athlete as Reyes in that sense...

 

[Alabuckeye]

IIRC, Ortiz came up with the Twins, and really bombed with them......went to Japan/Korea for a year or so and then Boston took a flier on him and he took off.....

 

[MadThinker88]

IIRC, Ortiz came up with the Twins, and really bombed with them......went to Japan/Korea for a year or so and then Boston took a flier on him and he took off.....

Mistaken memory.

Ortiz played in 125 gms during the 2002 season with Minnesota & 128 gms during the 2003 season with Boston..

David Ortiz Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

Career: 541 HR (17th), .286 BA, 1768 RBI (23rd), DH/1B, HOF in 2022, 10xAllStar, RedSox/Twins 1997-2016, b:L/t:L, 3x RBI Leader, born in Dominican Republic. 1975

www.baseball-reference.com

 

[mopete12]

Mistaken memory.

Ortiz played in 125 gms during the 2002 season with Minnesota & 128 gms during the 2003 season with Boston..

David Ortiz Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

Career: 541 HR (17th), .286 BA, 1768 RBI (23rd), DH/1B, HOF in 2022, 10xAllStar, RedSox/Twins 1997-2016, b:L/t:L, 3x RBI Leader, born in Dominican Republic. 1975

www.baseball-reference.com

Yep, the Twins released him after 2002 when he put up a .839 OPS because he was going to arbitration and they wanted to save a couple million bucks. Unbelievable.

 

[Criznit]

Yep, the Twins released him after 2002 when he put up a .839 OPS because he was going to arbitration and they wanted to save a couple million bucks. Unbelievable.

He was also the PTBNL in the trade that sent him from Seattle to Minn for Dave Hollins..