LackOfSkill
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I think people should temper expectations on the trade front for Cleveland. It’s going to be a pretty big challenge for CLE to find a deal that will net them a future asset with the current state of the cap.
A lot of these money dumping deals that teams (including the Cavs) have taken advantage of are the product of the big cap spike in 2016. Tons of teams overspent on players of other teams - these signings, if they didn't have their bird rights, were typically overpays over 4 years. That means the final year of those deals are now in their final year as expirings. There just aren't many bad contracts from that summer left that extend to 2020-21 that were originally signed as 5 year deals that summer - and therefore could be used in a salary dump trade.
Also, the overspending in 2016 probably affected the spending in the following year, meaning there were less of these awful overpays, and therefore fewer opportunities for Cleveland now.
Additionally, the Cavs are extremely close to the tax. They will not be making a trade that increases their salary in the current year. Navigating around this will be difficult, because they don't have any salaries in the $2.5m-$8m range besides key young players, making trade construction less flexible.
I'd also point out that the waiver claim on McKinnie could help the Cavs out in certain trade scenarios. You look at their expirings - Knight, Dellavedova, Clarkson, Henson, Thompson - and you'll notice that none of them are wings. If you're helping a contending team save money for next year, they likely won't want to downgrade their roster much for the current year. Pairing McKinnie with one of the expirings could be enough to entice a team to part with a rotation wing player that they wouldn't have been able to replace otherwise.
The last point worth making is that any deal done to save teams future money will reduce that Cavs' space for this summer. If they already have their eyes on a near-max offer sheet for someone like Brandon Ingram, these deals could become difficult to make. They're likely going to have about $30m in space as is with the Cedi extension, but the deals below will eat into that, and could take them out of the running for a player such as Ingram.
Here are a couple I think are at least worth looking into:
DET Receives:
John Henson $9.73m
Alfonzo McKinnie $1.59m
CLE Receives:
Tony Snell $11.39m
Draft Compensation
These are almost equal salaries for this season, and will not push the Cavs into the tax in the current year. Through this deal, DET adds about $10m in space this summer. By renouncing Reggie Jackson & Langston Galloway, they could then get to about $20m in cap space for this summer. How valuable is that with this free agency crop? That's up to DET's front office. If they see minimal value there, then the trade gets nowhere. I think best case scenario on the draft compensation on this deal is a lottery protected 2020 first from DET with CLE sending back a second.
DEN Receives:
Jordan Clarkson $13.44m
Alfonzo McKinnie $1.59m
CLE Receives:
Will Barton $12.78m
Malik Beasley $2.73m
Again, the Cavs would only increase their current year salary by about $500k here... leaving them just barely under the tax line. DEN is known for their unwillingness to pay the tax. With the Murray rookie extension kicking in next year, having the additional flexibility of removing Barton's contract could help with their future planning. There's a lot up in the air with them, as Millsap and Plumlee are UFAs, and Beasley and Hernangomez are RFA's. Jerami Grant may also opt out and earn himself a nice pay day with a solid playoff performance. There was a report that Beasley/DEN were not close on a rookie extension deal, so my guess would be there's a good chance he gets a decent offer sheet this summer that'll pry him away. Barton has $13.7m due in 2020-21, and a $14.7m player option for 2021-22.
A similar deal like this is still unlikely to me for a few reasons. Why give up to $27m in future spending for Beasley's rights, when he's gettable this summer on his own? Is Beasley even worth the salary he will get? This comes down to CLE's evaluation of him, of course. He's a great offensive talent, but there's questions there defensively. Of course, CLE already has quite an investment in two one-way guards, and have an important upcoming draft with more of the same at the top. A more likely deal may be to replace Beasley with Juancho Hernangomez + a protected pick deep into the future.
TOR Receives:
Matthew Dellavedova $9.61m
Alfonzo McKinnie $1.59m
CLE Receives:
Norman Powell $10.12m
Draft Compensation
Everyone's already heard about TOR's pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021. The key to this deal for TOR is getting off of Powell's player option of $11.6m for 2021-22. They have very little on their books for that summer as is, but an upcoming re-signing of Van Vleet and a possible rookie extension for OG Anunoby will eat into that. We've seen the importance of getting a second star can be for luring FAs. It's safe to say that Giannis will have many suitors, but the opportunity to play with Siakam and another max player could land him. The acquisition of McKinnie could help them a ton this year, with the lackluster start of Stanley Johnson and Hollis-Jefferson.
CLE will save about $1m in the current year of this deal. They could also swap out Henson for Dellavedova, though that would just add to an already crowded backcourt. A deal could also be structured around McKinnie and Brandon Knight, with the Cavs also getting back Stanley Johnson or Hollis Jefferson in the deal. My best guess on draft compensation would be a lightly protected first round pick. CLE would likely want to negotiate for the draft pick to be received as soon as possible, prior to any potential Giannis signing that would send a TOR first into the picks 28-30 range year in and year out. It's also worth noting that Masai Ujiri rarely trades first round picks, making this one a challenge when combined with their already comfortable flexibility.
LAC Receives:
Tristan Thompson $18.54m
Ante Zizic $2.28m
CLE Receives:
Moe Harkless $11.01m
Jerome Robinson $3.57m
Rodney McGruder $4.81m
Draft Compensation
This trade is pretty difficult to make, as both CLE and LAC are up against the tax this year. There are some interchangeable parts that could happen here, but this deal as is would increase LAC's salary by $1.43m this year - bringing them within $300k of the tax line. I would expect McKinnie to once again be involved in this scenario, as losing Harkless and McGruder hurts LAC's wing depth. CLE would have some decent leverage on draft compensation here in my opinion, as they're giving an upgrade in talent, and taking on over $8m in future money. Due to their moves this past offseason, the draft compensation available for the Cavs to go after here is limited. It would have to be this year's first round pick due to the Stepien Rule and their current obligations. LAC has a small handful of 2nd rounders to work with also.
There's also a conversation about whether or not the Cavs would even be interested in moving Thompson. Preliminary talks with his agent about his next contract may have a strong effect on this.
Minnesota Receives:
Tristan Thompson $18.54m
Cleveland Receives:
Gorgui Dieng $16.23m
Josh Okogie $2.53m and/or Draft Compensation
I truthfully am not sure what Minnesota's direction is currently, but I think a Thompson-Towns pairing could be enticing to them. Their effort to try to sign & trade for D'Angelo Russell may indicate they would like to win sooner rather than later. They also have all of their draft picks going forward. I personally believe Okogie would be a solid fit next to either Sexton or Garland and can be taken in via the Sam Dekker trade exception in a non-simultaneous trade. However, the deal could involve draft compensation with one of their minimum players instead. Dieng is due $17.29m in 2020-21.
Portland Receives:
Kevin Love $28.94m
Cleveland Receives:
Hassan Whiteside $27.09m
Draft Compensation
I'm just throwing this one in there for timesake. I feel like a Portland deal for Love would have happened by now if it were going to happen, and I'll leave it at that. Portland has all of their first round picks going forward to make a deal work. I still don't think the Cavs are interested in moving Love. If this deal were to happen, it would free up quite a bit of cap space for this summer, enabling them to pursue additional salary dumping moves.
Lastly, there may be a move out there to move Jordan Clarkson for a young player or 2nd rounder(s). I'm sure Cleveland will call around and shop him. Again, the Cavs are up against the tax so putting together a deal that works for both sides may not always be easy. For example, say the Bucks wanted to upgrade their shot creation off the bench... they just don't have the contracts that can add up to close to Clarkson's $13.44m without giving up a key contributor to the deal.
A couple of common theoretical trades thrown around that I personally don't think are too realistic:
James Johnson - This one has been talked about for awhile now, as Brandon Knight's salary matches up extremely well. Miami is up against the hard cap due to their sign & trade for Jimmy Butler, but this deal increases their salary by just $300k. They would still be under the apron by about $500k. I've not looked around the league, but I'd imagine it would be difficult for Miami to find an expiring(s) that matches up with Johnson's contract this closely. I have one big issue with this one: what is Miami's motivation for this deal? Dragic comes off their books after this year and they have no impending extensions until 2021, at which point James Johnson's contract is up. They're not up against the tax next season either. If anything, they may see value in James Johnson's contract next season as an expiring to pair with their 2025 pick for a talent upgrade. If you take a step back, what this trade would do is give up Miami's sole future remaining asset for almost meaningless savings.
Caris LeVert - I think this one would have to wait for a few reasons. LeVert's contract falls under what's called the Poison Pill Provision until his rookie contract extension kicks in. His incoming salary is the average of his current year contract and the years under extension - about $13.78m. However, his outgoing salary is just $2.63m for BKN. This makes things extremely difficult, as CLE is near the tax and BKN is about $7m short of it. Both teams are also over the cap, causing both teams having to receive no more than 125% + $100k of what they send out. Because of this, a third team with cap space (ATL is the only team with cap space with about only $3m) or a trade exception is needed. There aren't a ton of decent sized trade exceptions out there either. Who would be giving compensation to the third team, and what would it be? Additionally, what would BKN's motivation be for moving LeVert to the Cavs at this point in time?
A lot of these money dumping deals that teams (including the Cavs) have taken advantage of are the product of the big cap spike in 2016. Tons of teams overspent on players of other teams - these signings, if they didn't have their bird rights, were typically overpays over 4 years. That means the final year of those deals are now in their final year as expirings. There just aren't many bad contracts from that summer left that extend to 2020-21 that were originally signed as 5 year deals that summer - and therefore could be used in a salary dump trade.
Also, the overspending in 2016 probably affected the spending in the following year, meaning there were less of these awful overpays, and therefore fewer opportunities for Cleveland now.
Additionally, the Cavs are extremely close to the tax. They will not be making a trade that increases their salary in the current year. Navigating around this will be difficult, because they don't have any salaries in the $2.5m-$8m range besides key young players, making trade construction less flexible.
I'd also point out that the waiver claim on McKinnie could help the Cavs out in certain trade scenarios. You look at their expirings - Knight, Dellavedova, Clarkson, Henson, Thompson - and you'll notice that none of them are wings. If you're helping a contending team save money for next year, they likely won't want to downgrade their roster much for the current year. Pairing McKinnie with one of the expirings could be enough to entice a team to part with a rotation wing player that they wouldn't have been able to replace otherwise.
The last point worth making is that any deal done to save teams future money will reduce that Cavs' space for this summer. If they already have their eyes on a near-max offer sheet for someone like Brandon Ingram, these deals could become difficult to make. They're likely going to have about $30m in space as is with the Cedi extension, but the deals below will eat into that, and could take them out of the running for a player such as Ingram.
Here are a couple I think are at least worth looking into:
DET Receives:
John Henson $9.73m
Alfonzo McKinnie $1.59m
CLE Receives:
Tony Snell $11.39m
Draft Compensation
These are almost equal salaries for this season, and will not push the Cavs into the tax in the current year. Through this deal, DET adds about $10m in space this summer. By renouncing Reggie Jackson & Langston Galloway, they could then get to about $20m in cap space for this summer. How valuable is that with this free agency crop? That's up to DET's front office. If they see minimal value there, then the trade gets nowhere. I think best case scenario on the draft compensation on this deal is a lottery protected 2020 first from DET with CLE sending back a second.
DEN Receives:
Jordan Clarkson $13.44m
Alfonzo McKinnie $1.59m
CLE Receives:
Will Barton $12.78m
Malik Beasley $2.73m
Again, the Cavs would only increase their current year salary by about $500k here... leaving them just barely under the tax line. DEN is known for their unwillingness to pay the tax. With the Murray rookie extension kicking in next year, having the additional flexibility of removing Barton's contract could help with their future planning. There's a lot up in the air with them, as Millsap and Plumlee are UFAs, and Beasley and Hernangomez are RFA's. Jerami Grant may also opt out and earn himself a nice pay day with a solid playoff performance. There was a report that Beasley/DEN were not close on a rookie extension deal, so my guess would be there's a good chance he gets a decent offer sheet this summer that'll pry him away. Barton has $13.7m due in 2020-21, and a $14.7m player option for 2021-22.
A similar deal like this is still unlikely to me for a few reasons. Why give up to $27m in future spending for Beasley's rights, when he's gettable this summer on his own? Is Beasley even worth the salary he will get? This comes down to CLE's evaluation of him, of course. He's a great offensive talent, but there's questions there defensively. Of course, CLE already has quite an investment in two one-way guards, and have an important upcoming draft with more of the same at the top. A more likely deal may be to replace Beasley with Juancho Hernangomez + a protected pick deep into the future.
TOR Receives:
Matthew Dellavedova $9.61m
Alfonzo McKinnie $1.59m
CLE Receives:
Norman Powell $10.12m
Draft Compensation
Everyone's already heard about TOR's pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2021. The key to this deal for TOR is getting off of Powell's player option of $11.6m for 2021-22. They have very little on their books for that summer as is, but an upcoming re-signing of Van Vleet and a possible rookie extension for OG Anunoby will eat into that. We've seen the importance of getting a second star can be for luring FAs. It's safe to say that Giannis will have many suitors, but the opportunity to play with Siakam and another max player could land him. The acquisition of McKinnie could help them a ton this year, with the lackluster start of Stanley Johnson and Hollis-Jefferson.
CLE will save about $1m in the current year of this deal. They could also swap out Henson for Dellavedova, though that would just add to an already crowded backcourt. A deal could also be structured around McKinnie and Brandon Knight, with the Cavs also getting back Stanley Johnson or Hollis Jefferson in the deal. My best guess on draft compensation would be a lightly protected first round pick. CLE would likely want to negotiate for the draft pick to be received as soon as possible, prior to any potential Giannis signing that would send a TOR first into the picks 28-30 range year in and year out. It's also worth noting that Masai Ujiri rarely trades first round picks, making this one a challenge when combined with their already comfortable flexibility.
LAC Receives:
Tristan Thompson $18.54m
Ante Zizic $2.28m
CLE Receives:
Moe Harkless $11.01m
Jerome Robinson $3.57m
Rodney McGruder $4.81m
Draft Compensation
This trade is pretty difficult to make, as both CLE and LAC are up against the tax this year. There are some interchangeable parts that could happen here, but this deal as is would increase LAC's salary by $1.43m this year - bringing them within $300k of the tax line. I would expect McKinnie to once again be involved in this scenario, as losing Harkless and McGruder hurts LAC's wing depth. CLE would have some decent leverage on draft compensation here in my opinion, as they're giving an upgrade in talent, and taking on over $8m in future money. Due to their moves this past offseason, the draft compensation available for the Cavs to go after here is limited. It would have to be this year's first round pick due to the Stepien Rule and their current obligations. LAC has a small handful of 2nd rounders to work with also.
There's also a conversation about whether or not the Cavs would even be interested in moving Thompson. Preliminary talks with his agent about his next contract may have a strong effect on this.
Minnesota Receives:
Tristan Thompson $18.54m
Cleveland Receives:
Gorgui Dieng $16.23m
Josh Okogie $2.53m and/or Draft Compensation
I truthfully am not sure what Minnesota's direction is currently, but I think a Thompson-Towns pairing could be enticing to them. Their effort to try to sign & trade for D'Angelo Russell may indicate they would like to win sooner rather than later. They also have all of their draft picks going forward. I personally believe Okogie would be a solid fit next to either Sexton or Garland and can be taken in via the Sam Dekker trade exception in a non-simultaneous trade. However, the deal could involve draft compensation with one of their minimum players instead. Dieng is due $17.29m in 2020-21.
Portland Receives:
Kevin Love $28.94m
Cleveland Receives:
Hassan Whiteside $27.09m
Draft Compensation
I'm just throwing this one in there for timesake. I feel like a Portland deal for Love would have happened by now if it were going to happen, and I'll leave it at that. Portland has all of their first round picks going forward to make a deal work. I still don't think the Cavs are interested in moving Love. If this deal were to happen, it would free up quite a bit of cap space for this summer, enabling them to pursue additional salary dumping moves.
Lastly, there may be a move out there to move Jordan Clarkson for a young player or 2nd rounder(s). I'm sure Cleveland will call around and shop him. Again, the Cavs are up against the tax so putting together a deal that works for both sides may not always be easy. For example, say the Bucks wanted to upgrade their shot creation off the bench... they just don't have the contracts that can add up to close to Clarkson's $13.44m without giving up a key contributor to the deal.
A couple of common theoretical trades thrown around that I personally don't think are too realistic:
James Johnson - This one has been talked about for awhile now, as Brandon Knight's salary matches up extremely well. Miami is up against the hard cap due to their sign & trade for Jimmy Butler, but this deal increases their salary by just $300k. They would still be under the apron by about $500k. I've not looked around the league, but I'd imagine it would be difficult for Miami to find an expiring(s) that matches up with Johnson's contract this closely. I have one big issue with this one: what is Miami's motivation for this deal? Dragic comes off their books after this year and they have no impending extensions until 2021, at which point James Johnson's contract is up. They're not up against the tax next season either. If anything, they may see value in James Johnson's contract next season as an expiring to pair with their 2025 pick for a talent upgrade. If you take a step back, what this trade would do is give up Miami's sole future remaining asset for almost meaningless savings.
Caris LeVert - I think this one would have to wait for a few reasons. LeVert's contract falls under what's called the Poison Pill Provision until his rookie contract extension kicks in. His incoming salary is the average of his current year contract and the years under extension - about $13.78m. However, his outgoing salary is just $2.63m for BKN. This makes things extremely difficult, as CLE is near the tax and BKN is about $7m short of it. Both teams are also over the cap, causing both teams having to receive no more than 125% + $100k of what they send out. Because of this, a third team with cap space (ATL is the only team with cap space with about only $3m) or a trade exception is needed. There aren't a ton of decent sized trade exceptions out there either. Who would be giving compensation to the third team, and what would it be? Additionally, what would BKN's motivation be for moving LeVert to the Cavs at this point in time?