Why the Guardians will win over 100 games this year

[Hurl Bruce]

I actually met Carlos Baerga at a Browns game in 1994 at Municipal Stadium. I was an 11 year old kid with my dad and had to pee during the 3rd quarter of the game against the Patriots in early November (we won that game 13-6!).

My dad waited outside of the bathroom as I made my way to the piss trough and I'll never forget it... Carlos Baerga was walking up at the same time as me wearing what I can only describe as a 1970s/80s leisure suit. As we both pissed in the trough, Carlos looks at me, grins, and starts rapidly shaking one of his legs until a small turd rolled out of his pant leg. As soon as it happened, he tucked back in, kissed his cross necklace, winked at me, and walked away without washing his hands.

It was one of the coolest things I've ever seen.

Did you save it and take it home?

 

[Deezus]

Did you save it and take it home?

It’s in a miniature mail box next to my mom’s ashes on the mantle

 

[petes999]

Just an interesting tidbit from MLB on how the competitive balance will help/hurt teams. They have for us as middle of the road just because we were scheduled for NL East anyways and now spread things out to Central and others. So, in other years, I would assume that it hurts (e.g. when we were suppose to play NL Central following year).

How 2023 balanced schedule could affect playoff races

Amongst all the changes you’ll notice on the field in 2023 -- the pitch clock, the positioning ban, the larger bases, the pickoff limits -- there’s another quietly meaningful one that might not be quite so obvious if you weren’t looking for it. For the first time since Interleague Play

www.mlb.com

"But for the relatively weak AL Central, it doesn’t seem like it’ll matter so much. That’s because these five teams had already been scheduled to face the NL East in 2023, so those games aren’t new, and instead they’ll pick up games against the equally weak NL Central and the NL West, which features a somewhat depleted (compared to previous years) Dodgers squad and the very poorly projected Rockies. We project these five teams with almost no change at all.
The takeaway: It was already pretty hard to see the Central sending a team to the Wild Card, given the strength in the East and West, and this only exacerbates that."

 

[sportscoach]

Just an interesting tidbit from MLB on how the competitive balance will help/hurt teams. They have for us as middle of the road just because we were scheduled for NL East anyways and now spread things out to Central and others. So, in other years, I would assume that it hurts (e.g. when we were suppose to play NL Central following year).

How 2023 balanced schedule could affect playoff races

Amongst all the changes you’ll notice on the field in 2023 -- the pitch clock, the positioning ban, the larger bases, the pickoff limits -- there’s another quietly meaningful one that might not be quite so obvious if you weren’t looking for it. For the first time since Interleague Play

www.mlb.com

"But for the relatively weak AL Central, it doesn’t seem like it’ll matter so much. That’s because these five teams had already been scheduled to face the NL East in 2023, so those games aren’t new, and instead they’ll pick up games against the equally weak NL Central and the NL West, which features a somewhat depleted (compared to previous years) Dodgers squad and the very poorly projected Rockies. We project these five teams with almost no change at all.
The takeaway: It was already pretty hard to see the Central sending a team to the Wild Card, given the strength in the East and West, and this only exacerbates that."

I'd say they are underestimating the central... Guardians won 92 games and got better... White Soxs and Twins could have good teams if their health is there. Royals and Tigers are playing rookies in a sense, you really don't know what you get there. I don't think it will be that simple to knock the second place team in the central out of the WC spot...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Pluto had this:

Suppose someone told you at the start of the 2022 season that Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac would combine for an 8-18 record and a 4.62 ERA? It would seem impossible for Cleveland to win 92 games with that production from its fourth and fifth starters. But it happened. Those rotation spots are still a concern in 2023. I was told Civale is healthy. That’s not been the case for the last 1 1/2 seasons. Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill and Bieber are all relatively young pitchers. The Guardians are excited about starters in the farm system who could help in 2023: Cody Morris, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Konnor Pilkington and one of my favorites – Joey Cantillo.

Yeah - eight wins and a combined 4.62 ERA from their 4th and 5th starters. That's an area where we could see dramatic improvement this year. Civale had a 3.05 ERA in his last eight starts, not counting his playoff start where he hadn't pitched in over two weeks.

As for Plesac, either he pitches better (and avoids punching any mounds or undressing injuries) or he gets replaced by one of the names mentioned above. Don't ask me which one, but I think the odds are good that at least one of them will be a better starting pitcher this year than Plesac was last year.

I also think the bullpen will actually be better, although it was great already. Tim Herrin (I assume) will replace Shaw, who had a 5.40 ERA and did not face a single batter in seven playoff games. Herrin is a lefty who throws in the upper 90's. He had 101 K's in 69 innings last year. If not Herrin they will find somebody who can do better than a 5.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Last year they dug De Lo Santos out from under a rock - they're pretty good at that.

Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin had hiccups during the season but finished exceptionally strong. I can't find a reason why any pitcher on the Guardians' staff can't at least meet if not exceed his production from last season relative to the rest of the league. The oldest pitcher on the roster is Plesac at 28. That's an amazing number. The Yankees have seven pitchers age 30 and older.

I think batting averages and runs scored will increase across the leagues due to the elimination of the shift, so I'm not predicting that the ERA's of Guardians' pitchers will stay the same or go down. But relative to the rest of the league the G's are in great shape pitching-wise because the staff is so young. There are no 30-somethings coming off a strong season who are approaching the age of regression. In fact, they have some young pitchers who are just finishing off their transition to the majors like Stephan, Hentges, Clase, Morgan, Karinchak, and Sandlin.

There's a realistic chance the pitching could be amazing this year from Bieber right down to the last reliever. The 4th and 5th starters are questionable, but if healthy I would put Civale and Plesac right up there with anybody in our division except the White Sox (Kopech and Clevinger if he's not in jail).

 

[CDAV45]

It’s in a miniature mail box next to my mom’s ashes on the mantle

Fecalpheliac? Kyle is that you?

 

[CDAV45]

Pluto had this:

Suppose someone told you at the start of the 2022 season that Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac would combine for an 8-18 record and a 4.62 ERA? It would seem impossible for Cleveland to win 92 games with that production from its fourth and fifth starters. But it happened. Those rotation spots are still a concern in 2023. I was told Civale is healthy. That’s not been the case for the last 1 1/2 seasons. Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill and Bieber are all relatively young pitchers. The Guardians are excited about starters in the farm system who could help in 2023: Cody Morris, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Konnor Pilkington and one of my favorites – Joey Cantillo.

Yeah - eight wins and a combined 4.62 ERA from their 4th and 5th starters. That's an area where we could see dramatic improvement this year. Civale had a 3.05 ERA in his last eight starts, not counting his playoff start where he hadn't pitched in over two weeks.

As for Plesac, either he pitches better (and avoids punching any mounds or undressing injuries) or he gets replaced by one of the names mentioned above. Don't ask me which one, but I think the odds are good that at least one of them will be a better starting pitcher this year than Plesac was last year.

I also think the bullpen will actually be better, although it was great already. Tim Herrin (I assume) will replace Shaw, who had a 5.40 ERA and did not face a single batter in seven playoff games. Herrin is a lefty who throws in the upper 90's. He had 101 K's in 69 innings last year. If not Herrin they will find somebody who can do better than a 5.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Last year they dug De Lo Santos out from under a rock - they're pretty good at that.

Eli Morgan and Nick Sandlin had hiccups during the season but finished exceptionally strong. I can't find a reason why any pitcher on the Guardians' staff can't at least meet if not exceed his production from last season relative to the rest of the league. The oldest pitcher on the roster is Plesac at 28. That's an amazing number. The Yankees have seven pitchers age 30 and older.

I think batting averages and runs scored will increase across the leagues due to the elimination of the shift, so I'm not predicting that the ERA's of Guardians' pitchers will stay the same or go down. But relative to the rest of the league the G's are in great shape pitching-wise because the staff is so young. There are no 30-somethings coming off a strong season who are approaching the age of regression. In fact, they have some young pitchers who are just finishing off their transition to the majors like Stephan, Hentges, Clase, Morgan, Karinchak, and Sandlin.

There's a realistic chance the pitching could be amazing this year from Bieber right down to the last reliever. The 4th and 5th starters are questionable, but if healthy I would put Civale and Plesac right up there with anybody in our division except the White Sox (Kopech and Clevinger if he's not in jail).

So how do they go about getting any of Morris, Pilkington, Battenfield, Gaddis, Curry, Bibee, Williams, Allen, Cantillo or Espino an opportunity should they continue to earn it? Who or what gives and when? I mean that's more arms than they can even stash in Columbus. Let's say Espino and Cantillo start in Akron due to the lack of IP last season. That's still 8 SP prospects in Columbus.

I'm sure they are hoping Civale and Plesac rebound this season, and that there is a demand for them. It just doesn't seem like they are being very proactive, but I could be mistaken because they are very tight lipped when discussing trades.

Who is anyone here willing to deal? Clearly most would prefer to deal Plesac, but what if a team makes a very good offer for one of Quantrill and/or Civale? What do you do then?

 

[Mott the Hoople]

So how do they go about getting any of Morris, Pilkington, Battenfield, Gaddis, Curry, Bibee, Williams, Allen, Cantillo or Espino an opportunity should they continue to earn it? Who or what gives and when? I mean that's more arms than they can even stash in Columbus. Let's say Espino and Cantillo start in Akron due to the lack of IP last season. That's still 8 SP prospects in Columbus.

I'm sure they are hoping Civale and Plesac rebound this season, and that there is a demand for them. It just doesn't seem like they are being very proactive, but I could be mistaken because they are very tight lipped when discussing trades.

Who is anyone here willing to deal? Clearly most would prefer to deal Plesac, but what if a team makes a very good offer for one of Quantrill and/or Civale? What do you do then?

Here's the problem. There's an excellent chance the G's will strongly contend for the AL Central crown in 2023. (I did not feel that way at all a year ago.) That makes it tough to trade veteran SP's. Of the SP prospects, I see Espino and Bibee as potentially FORSP. That puts them in a different category.
In a perfect world, I would rather trade Plesac or Civale. However, if we could make a deal for a player that truly makes a difference, I would make Quantrill, Williams, Cantillo, or any of the rest of them available. Because as you say, there's little chance all of them could get an opportunity.
It goes without saying that I would be willing to trade any of the MIF prospects.

In order to take the next step, a true WS contender, the G's need another impact player.

 

[CDAV45]

Here's the problem. There's an excellent chance the G's will strongly contend for the AL Central crown in 2023. (I did not feel that way at all a year ago.) That makes it tough to trade veteran SP's. Of the SP prospects, I see Espino and Bibee as potentially FORSP. That puts them in a different category.
In a perfect world, I would rather trade Plesac or Civale. However, if we could make a deal for a player that truly makes a difference, I would make Quantrill, Williams, Cantillo, or any of the rest of them available. Because as you say, there's little chance all of them could get an opportunity.
It goes without saying that I would be willing to trade any of the MIF prospects.

In order to take the next step, a true WS contender, the G's need another impact player.

If you see Espino and Bibee as FOR SP then how do you not see Williams as the same? If I'm forced to trade one of the 3 then it's Espino everyday of the week right now for no other reason than his inability to stay healthy even though it isn't a major concern right now.

Every Cleveland fan in the world would rather trade Plesac over Civale. Every MLB team would prefer to acquire Civale for the same reasons.

Bieber is a FA after 2024. Quantrill, Civale and Plesac reach FA in 2026. Do you think they'll hang onto to them past next season with all of the SP depth?

I think if the G's want to be a true WS contender then they need some things to happen:
- Get the same production or better from JRam, Gimenez, Kwan, Gonzalez and J. Naylor.
- I also think they need to replace Rosario with Arias. Yes, there's a chance Arias will falter, but there's also a chance they hit gold with him too.
- Brennan should be the starting CFer with Straw going to a 4th OFer/defensive replacement/pinch runner role where he belongs.
- Bo Naylor taking the starting C job and running with it. His offensive upside is so vastly superior to anything we've had since Gomes was at his best.
- Replace the BOR SP's with higher upside arms that are in house. If they want to trade for an upgrade then so be it, but I don't think that's likely right now.

 

[Gson]

Well.. Pluto has a new BITCH BOY to hammer on.. oh joy.. I guess the attempt by the PLAIN DULL'er and their half-witted sports department to go after the Browns and get the head coach and Coordinators fired doesn't have any traction.. So, it's time for the idiot to turn his poison pen at Plesac.. and the PD wonders why NO ONE buys that rag other than to line a bird cage..

Sad.. very sad indeed..

 

[Gson]

Here's the problem. There's an excellent chance the G's will strongly contend for the AL Central crown in 2023. (I did not feel that way at all a year ago.) That makes it tough to trade veteran SP's. Of the SP prospects, I see Espino and Bibee as potentially FORSP. That puts them in a different category.
In a perfect world, I would rather trade Plesac or Civale. However, if we could make a deal for a player that truly makes a difference, I would make Quantrill, Williams, Cantillo, or any of the rest of them available. Because as you say, there's little chance all of them could get an opportunity.
It goes without saying that I would be willing to trade any of the MIF prospects.

In order to take the next step, a true WS contender, the G's need another impact player.

agree with most of this..

one clarification.. it doesn't have to be Plesac leaving if he proves he can be effective out of the pen.. as in an opener/back half of a piggy back with one of the innings limited guys like morris..

We'll see..

 

[Gson]

So how do they go about getting any of Morris, Pilkington, Battenfield, Gaddis, Curry, Bibee, Williams, Allen, Cantillo or Espino an opportunity should they continue to earn it? Who or what gives and when? I mean that's more arms than they can even stash in Columbus. Let's say Espino and Cantillo start in Akron due to the lack of IP last season. That's still 8 SP prospects in Columbus.

I'm sure they are hoping Civale and Plesac rebound this season, and that there is a demand for them. It just doesn't seem like they are being very proactive, but I could be mistaken because they are very tight lipped when discussing trades.

Who is anyone here willing to deal? Clearly most would prefer to deal Plesac, but what if a team makes a very good offer for one of Quantrill and/or Civale? What do you do then?

civale is a St Louis kind of SP.. not that there's a deal working there at present..but there can be..

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I think if the G's want to be a true WS contender then they need some things to happen:
- Get the same production or better from JRam, Gimenez, Kwan, Gonzalez and J. Naylor.

Very probable.

- I also think they need to replace Rosario with Arias. Yes, there's a chance Arias will falter, but there's also a chance they hit gold with him too.

Inevitable. Especially after this season.

- Brennan should be the starting CFer with Straw going to a 4th OFer/defensive replacement/pinch runner role where he belongs.

That's probable if Straw doesn't show more with the bat.

- Bo Naylor taking the starting C job and running with it. His offensive upside is so vastly superior to anything we've had since Gomes was at his best.

Bo might become the starter sometime this season. But might not reach full potential for a couple of seasons.

- Replace the BOR SP's with higher upside arms that are in house. If they want to trade for an upgrade then so be it, but I don't think that's likely right now.

With all the arms in the system this is also inevitable.

But even if all this happens, I'm not sure it makes us any better than just AL Central Champs.
Plus, Bell is only here for a year. Then maybe Noel could get a chance. Or I could see OGonz moving positions to 1B to make room for Valera.
I think some of these names would have to play at their ceilings for us to be WS contenders.

 

[CDAV45]

But even if all this happens, I'm not sure it makes us any better than just AL Central Champs.
Plus, Bell is only here for a year. Then maybe Noel could get a chance. Or I could see OGonz moving positions to 1B to make room for Valera.
I think some of these names would have to play at their ceilings for us to be WS contenders.

Maybe not, but it makes us better which increases our chances of postseason success. It will also be helpful determining the path forward to being an actual WS contender.

I love Noel's power, but there are some red flags. I don't even think his profile is as good as OGon's was. He's extremely young though so I'm holding out hope.

I'm not sure OGon can play 1B. I'd guess that move would have already been made if it were possible, but I could be mistaken.

Yes, these guys performing well this season is mandatory to them being WS contenders, but does that not apply to every other team?

Edited to say that by playing/rostering all of Straw, Rosario, Plesac, Civale and maybe even Quantrill that we are kicking the can down the road. I acknowledge that I could be wrong in that statement, but it seems that way to me regardless. The inevitable is that we have better players that need to play and gain experience. When is it optimal to do so, now or next season?

 

[sportscoach]

Maybe not, but it makes us better which increases our chances of postseason success. It will also be helpful determining the path forward to being an actual WS contender.

I love Noel's power, but there are some red flags. I don't even think his profile is as good as OGon's was. He's extremely young though so I'm holding out hope.

I'm not sure OGon can play 1B. I'd guess that move would have already been made if it were possible, but I could be mistaken.

Yes, these guys performing well this season is mandatory to them being WS contenders, but does that not apply to every other team?

Edited to say that by playing/rostering all of Straw, Rosario, Plesac, Civale and maybe even Quantrill that we are kicking the can down the road. I acknowledge that I could be wrong in that statement, but it seems that way to me regardless. The inevitable is that we have better players that need to play and gain experience. When is it optimal to do so, now or next season?

OGonz cannot play 1B... He isn't very good at fielding grounders lol I would put good money, I could still play a better 1B than he could..