Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

[inliner311]

What’s most concerning to me is how we almost treat Okoro like he’s a second round pick or something. Applauding him for all the little things he does out there like being pesky on defense and grabbing a few offensive rebounds.

That’s nice and all but this guy is a #5 overall pick. If all he turns out to be is a good defender who’s not big enough to defend more than maybe 2 positions - slower end of PGs to the smaller end of SFs - and a cutter and helper on the offensive rebounds who hits the occasional three. Then we fucked up royally.

When Okoro was drafted the front office was touting how he could defended 1-4 even joking started with he could possibly defend 1-5 and said 1-4 was more realistic. I think the problem is the fact that he isn't as flexible position-wise defensively really brings his playability down. I think it hurts his development too because he has to carve out a role with that less position flexibility so his offensive skill set has to be more specific.

The problem with him being a top 5 pick is I think this front office as long as they are in power will accommodate Okoro and may not draft players to compete with him because they drafted him so high. I feel like Okoro will be a player that we hold out hope on potential way too long like Charlotte did with MKG. If he doesn't break out, I don't think he will bust which could be a problem because we might not move on from him as quickly as we should and turn to another player(s).

 

[Futuredome]

Altman definitely is a "don't trade" type of guy. He has his "fella's" and wants to build around them. Trading is a sign of weakness, failure of the design.

 

[weepinwillow]

I'm not sure what you guys watched last night, but I saw a kid who was guarding 3 positions at an above average to very good level, moving the ball in the offense when he had it, making quick decisions with the ball without turning it over and making timely cuts when the defender turned his head or there was an opportunity.
You have 7 guys who are going to eat up offensive possessions before Okoro in Garland, Sexton (who should count for 2), Mobley, Allen, Laurie, Love & Rubio, plus whatever goes up from a thirsty AF Cedi Osman. And the Cavs are 14th in points scored (a number being dragged down by last nights score in a W).
Don't be a dumb-ass. Basketball isn't only a shot going through the damn net. Cavs don't win that game without the effort Isaac had last night.

 

[Cavatt]

I'm not sure what you guys watched last night, but I saw a kid who was guarding 3 positions at an above average to very good level, moving the ball in the offense when he had it, making quick decisions with the ball without turning it over and making timely cuts when the defender turned his head or there was an opportunity.
You have 7 guys who are going to eat up offensive possessions before Okoro in Garland, Sexton (who should count for 2), Mobley, Allen, Laurie, Love & Rubio, plus whatever goes up from a thirsty AF Cedi Osman. And the Cavs are 14th in points scored (a number being dragged down by last nights score in a W).
Don't be a dumb-ass. Basketball isn't only a shot going through the damn net. Cavs don't win that game without the effort Isaac had last night.

He put pressure on the rim and had a crucial 3. Had a really great finish.

His defense was great.

I wish he would just try to take some guys off the dribble. U think he can drive on smaller guys if they are the only ones between him and the basket.

 

[weepinwillow]

He put pressure on the rim and had a crucial 3. Had a really great finish.

His defense was great.

I wish he would just try to take some guys off the dribble. U think he can drive on smaller guys if they are the only ones between him and the basket.

We have guys who can make things happen offensively, Okoro just needs to take what's there. When he does attack he normally passes to wherever the help comes from. Keeps the flow of the offense.
My only criticism is he should know what "NBA open" is and take some of those shots where he has room.

 

[ryanf]

okoro made things happen the last game. was helping on the boards, streaking out on the break and just being active. before he would just stick to his man because of "defense".

he should have more of these type of games to be an impact player.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I never said Haliburton was a colossal reach. I'm responding to those who view Okoro as a complete waste of a pick because (a) Haliburton was available and (b) he's had somewhat better numbers to date. (Which he should vis-a-vis Okoro, as an older player with an extra year of college ball.)

Even assuming that Haliburton has the better career (and it's way too early to decide that one), you're saying that the existence of one player (from the same "tier," however that is defined) who is taken later in the draft, and who has a better career, is a reason to call the GM who didn't take him on the carpet. So if Okoro turns out to be the second best out of however-many players in that "tier," that's not good enough. It doesn't matter if he outshines Okongwu, Hayes, Avdija, Toppin, etc. Correct? If so, then ... you're never going have a GM for very long. You'll almost always be able to find a player taken later in the draft who has a better career (even putting aside the guys like Giannis, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler who way outperform their draft slots). Should the dude who took Dream #1 for the Rockets be fired because he didn't take Jordan? (As for the dude who took Sam Bowie at #2 for Portland, well, that's a much fairer question.)

The issue is that some here are treating Haliburton as this amazing talent who somehow dropped to #5, and that the Cavs inexplicably passed on him. That's simply not the case. Haliburton would have been one of any number of defensible choices at #5. Okoro was another such choice. So were several others. Most of them have done worse than Okoro to date, and (at least in my mind) none have clearly outshined him to the point of asking "what the hell were the Cavs thinking?"

To this point, the problem is we took a guy who has been pretty bad overall.

The problem isn't that we took one hall of fame player over the other. Which I'm sure you know.

What metrics tell you that "(at least in my mind) none have clearly outshined him to the point of asking "what the hell were the Cavs thinking?"

Okoro:

VORP: -1.7 (56th - last among qualifying 2020 draftees)
BPM: -4.9 (40th)
WS: 1.0 (20th)
Raptor: -4.2
PER: 7.9

Halliburton:

VORP: 1.4 (2nd)
BPM: 1.2 (4th)
WS: 2.6 (2nd)
Raptor: -0.9
PER: 16.2

Vassell:

VORP: 0.0 (16th)
BPM: -2.3 (20th)
WS: 1.7 (14th)
Raptor: -1.8
PER: 10.6

Okongwu:

VORP: 0.1 (12th)
BPM: -1.3 (12th)
WS: 1.9 (12th)
Raptor: -1.1
PER: 16.8

I feel like people don't look at these, don't care, both?

I personally don't dislike Isaac as much as the numbers do........but they are all, objectively, pretty bad.

He has a long way to go to be even the second best player in the tier he was drafted in. To me, that is already tracking to be Vassell. I also think, barring his health just never getting in order, that Okongwu will be a better player.

So that is inherently the calculus to me......it is possible we selected the 4th best player in a 7-8 player tier, having the first pick to select among those players. I guess that isn't a valid criticism of a GM?

 

[Douglar]

So that is inherently the calculus to me......it is possible we selected the 4th best player in a 7-8 player tier, having the first pick to select among those players. I guess that isn't a valid criticism of a GM?

It's hard to criticize a GM based on a single pick. It's like criticizing a gambler based on a single hand of poker.

But Okoro is never going to be a 3&D guy if he can't hit the 3, and he doesn't look any better from distance in year 2, but look at Rick Rubio. After 10 years in the NBA, has his 3point shot finally come around?

 

[I'mWithDan]

It's hard to criticize a GM based on a single pick. It's like criticizing a gambler based on a single hand of poker.

I personally would push back on this......because there is far more at stake. The value of a top 5 pick is immense.

From an All-Star appearance perspective, 50+% of the appearances come from just the top 5 (8.3% of the draft picks). 70+% come from the top 10.

GM's that get top 5-10 picks need to find value there. It isn't the equivalent of an average single hand of poker. It is the equivalent of them being dealt a massively valuable hand in poker and assessing if they played that incredibly valuable hand correctly.

I don't think you fire a GM for a single selection, in the event that GM has a quality track record but GM's make how many picks on average with a single team? 6-10? 1 pick is a pretty large evaluation point there. 10-17% of all picks on average. 20-33% of 1st round picks.

If Koby failed to pick one of the best players from a tier he had the first pick in, at worst, you need to evaluate why he made that decision. Was that decision making sound? Set aside Okoro and his place right now. What did Altman describe as the redeeming qualities that lead us to select Isaac? And do those evaluation criteria make any sense a year removed? Or has anything they believed to happen from a player development perspective actually happened?

But Okoro is never going to be a 3&D guy if he can't hit the 3, and he doesn't look any better from distance in year 2, but look at Rick Rubio. After 10 years in the NBA, has his 3point shot finally come around?

History would say no but who knows. Shooting samples are such an enormous data set by year 10. For a player to suddenly acquire a skill like shooting, kind of out of nowhere, would be pretty improbable. Maybe they could get hot for a stretch and perform significantly above their baseline.....but the sustaining of that skill is unlikely, just from what we have seen.

The most discouraging aspect of Okoro has been shooting for sure. Without that skill, it is pretty much a realistic impossibility for him to have been worth a top 5 pick. Who is the best example of this type of guy? If he were to go on to be an immensely valuable defender? In a best case? Is it Tony Allen? Who eventually got just played off the floor in the playoffs, as the NBA evolved?

I feel like the bar is just so much higher for top 5 picks......but maybe there is less universal agreement on that.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

To this point, the problem is we took a guy who has been pretty bad overall.

The problem isn't that we took one hall of fame player over the other. Which I'm sure you know.

What metrics tell you that "(at least in my mind) none have clearly outshined him to the point of asking "what the hell were the Cavs thinking?"

Okoro:

VORP: -1.7 (56th - last among qualifying 2020 draftees)
BPM: -4.9 (40th)
WS: 1.0 (20th)
Raptor: -4.2
PER: 7.9

Halliburton:

VORP: 1.4 (2nd)
BPM: 1.2 (4th)
WS: 2.6 (2nd)
Raptor: -0.9
PER: 16.2

Vassell:

VORP: 0.0 (16th)
BPM: -2.3 (20th)
WS: 1.7 (14th)
Raptor: -1.8
PER: 10.6

Okongwu:

VORP: 0.1 (12th)
BPM: -1.3 (12th)
WS: 1.9 (12th)
Raptor: -1.1
PER: 16.8

I feel like people don't look at these, don't care, both?

I personally don't dislike Isaac as much as the numbers do........but they are all, objectively, pretty bad.

He has a long way to go to be even the second best player in the tier he was drafted in. To me, that is already tracking to be Vassell. I also think, barring his health just never getting in order, that Okongwu will be a better player.

So that is inherently the calculus to me......it is possible we selected the 4th best player in a 7-8 player tier, having the first pick to select among those players. I guess that isn't a valid criticism of a GM?

Most advanced stats don't fully take into account the role assigned to that player by the team, nor do I believe they fully compensate for quality of teammates. Whole lot of noise in there affecting the "how good is this guy at basketball" overall evaluation.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Most advanced stats don't fully take into account the role assigned to that player by the team, nor do I believe they fully compensate for quality of teammates. Whole lot of noise in there affecting the "how good is this guy at basketball" overall evaluation.

Certainly noise for sure and some limitation but I fail to see the qualitative evaluation there for him either, if we want to go that route.

He's not useless.......but his qualitative value is largely overblown as well, especially on defense.

I just think he was a limited player when we drafted him and he's still a limited player.

Until he stops being a limited player, I feel like the GM is open for criticism, relative to the value of the asset we exchanged for him.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

I personally would push back on this......because there is far more at stake. The value of a top 5 pick is immense.

From an All-Star appearance perspective, 50+% of the appearances come from just the top 5 (8.3% of the draft picks). 70+% come from the top 10.

GM's that get top 5-10 picks need to find value there. It isn't the equivalent of an average single hand of poker. It is the equivalent of them being dealt a massively valuable hand in poker and assessing if they played that incredibly valuable hand correctly.

I don't think you fire a GM for a single selection, in the event that GM has a quality track record but GM's make how many picks on average with a single team? 6-10? 1 pick is a pretty large evaluation point there. 10-17% of all picks on average. 20-33% of 1st round picks.

If Koby failed to pick one of the best players from a tier he had the first pick in, at worst, you need to evaluate why he made that decision. Was that decision making sound? Set aside Okoro and his place right now. What did Altman describe as the redeeming qualities that lead us to select Isaac? And do those evaluation criteria make any sense a year removed? Or has anything they believed to happen from a player development perspective actually happened?



History would say no but who knows. Shooting samples are such an enormous data set by year 10. For a player to suddenly acquire a skill like shooting, kind of out of nowhere, would be pretty improbable. Maybe they could get hot for a stretch and perform significantly above their baseline.....but the sustaining of that skill is unlikely, just from what we have seen.

The most discouraging aspect of Okoro has been shooting for sure. Without that skill, it is pretty much a realistic impossibility for him to have been worth a top 5 pick. Who is the best example of this type of guy? If he were to go on to be an immensely valuable defender? In a best case? Is it Tony Allen? Who eventually got just played off the floor in the playoffs, as the NBA evolved?

I feel like the bar is just so much higher for top 5 picks......but maybe there is less universal agreement on that.

I was absolutely killing Okoro this summer knowing what was on the line for him/us, but I still feel he was the right choice and I believe he's being misused after being miscast, still.

I also believe JBB and his staff recognize this and are making a concerted effort to right this for his development, however, the front office is trying not to devalue Sexton leading up to the trade deadline, so they are effectively delaying/deferring the priority of Okoro's development. Okoro replacing Sexton at 8 mins in each of these games assures me that someone on the bench has a clue while holding the front office at bay and reaching a compromise.

Okoro's trajectory is not yet set for me, as outside of the last 20 games last season, we haven't seen him prioritized in role or pecking order, to really assess what that trajectory might be.

What I know for sure... right after Wiseman and Patrick Williams, he is the youngest from that draft with the highest floor of NBA ready defensive versatility to impact 1's and 2's with a fighting chance to impact 3's but not long enough to impact them as much as 1/2's. He is smart on both ends to a fault when it comes to deferring to systems/teammates but more and more we're starting to see him assert himself (similar to Garland) and react/gamble/take calculated risks on defense a little more. He shows *flashes* of asserting himself on offense though his priority is 4/5th pretty much everytime he's on the court.

He JUST turned 20 years old, 6 months ago

We've got the next 2.5 years to prioritize his development so we can more clearly assess what his trajectory is, but let's draw his parallels with respect to age and production one more time:

MKG: He's better than MKG already all-around so he's surpassed my worst case developmental fear
Tony Allen: He's offensively better than Tony Allen already with a very realistic chance to be better than him defensively sooner (Allen hit his peak and really became THAT guy defensively his 2nd year in Memphis at age 28/29).
Iggy & Butler: Okoro is already more productive than Igoudala who had his rookie year a full year older than Okoro is right now and Jimmy Butler who became the full-time starter at SG for Thibs his 3rd year at 24 years old

What he looks like right now, is he can have the potential to be a very good 4th starter/contending glue starter who can win games for you by complimenting your top 3 guys perfectly while making nights really hard for the primary ball handlers and scorers that fit his matchup profile (which is just a little shorter and less reach than the PG13's, Kawhi's and Brons but a perfect match potentially for the other half of perimeter stars like Kyries, Hardens, Stephs and like we just saw last game...Trae's). I can guarantee you that Thibs and Doc Rivers would give their left nut to have him out there for those series last year when Trae sent them home after watching what he did to him last game. Guarantee it. And we're talking about a 20 year old with less than 100 games who's defensive impact is not reliant at all on his offense.

Patience with this one

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Certainly noise for sure and some limitation but I fail to see the qualitative evaluation there for him either, if we want to go that route.

He's not useless.......but his qualitative value is largely overblown as well, especially on defense.

I just think he was a limited player when we drafted him and he's still a limited player.

Until he stops being a limited player, I feel like the GM is open for criticism, relative to the value of the asset we exchanged for him.

My point is twofold:

1) Every drafted player's performance is impacted heavily by the opportunities he is given, and the role he is asked to play on his new team. Looking at how other players performed on other teams where the opportunities and roles were different, and then comparing that performance to the player we drafted, overlooks that distinction. Okoro's offensive numbers here are underwhelming in large part because the Cavs -- with the exception of the last couple weeks of the season -- did not want him to play a major offensive role. Downgrading his abilities as a player because his offensive numbers aren't good ignores that.

2) We drafted Okoro knowing that his shot would take some time to come around. We wanted his defense, intangibles, ability to slash, and BBIQ. We should not expect that to have happened this quickly, especially, given the limited role we have asked him to play offensively.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

What he looks like right now, is he can have the potential to be a very good 4th starter/contending glue starter who can win games for you by complimenting your top 3 guys perfectly....

"I say Evan, that was quite the dunk! Well done!"

"Brilliant pass, Collin! Keep 'em coming!"

"Nothing but net, Darius!"

(Cavs go on 22-0 run).





I can't help it. That's what runs through my tiny little brain. Sorry.

 

[AllforOne]

I was absolutely killing Okoro this summer knowing what was on the line for him/us, but I still feel he was the right choice and I believe he's being misused after being miscast, still.

I also believe JBB and his staff recognize this and are making a concerted effort to right this for his development, however, the front office is trying not to devalue Sexton leading up to the trade deadline, so they are effectively delaying/deferring the priority of Okoro's development. Okoro replacing Sexton at 8 mins in each of these games assures me that someone on the bench has a clue while holding the front office at bay and reaching a compromise.

Okoro's trajectory is not yet set for me, as outside of the last 20 games last season, we haven't seen him prioritized in role or pecking order, to really assess what that trajectory might be.

What I know for sure... right after Wiseman and Patrick Williams, he is the youngest from that draft with the highest floor of NBA ready defensive versatility to impact 1's and 2's with a fighting chance to impact 3's but not long enough to impact them as much as 1/2's. He is smart on both ends to a fault when it comes to deferring to systems/teammates but more and more we're starting to see him assert himself (similar to Garland) and react/gamble/take calculated risks on defense a little more. He shows *flashes* of asserting himself on offense though his priority is 4/5th pretty much everytime he's on the court.

He JUST turned 20 years old, 6 months ago

We've got the next 2.5 years to prioritize his development so we can more clearly assess what his trajectory is, but let's draw his parallels with respect to age and production one more time:

MKG: He's better than MKG already all-around so he's surpassed my worst case developmental fear
Tony Allen: He's offensively better than Tony Allen already with a very realistic chance to be better than him defensively sooner (Allen hit his peak and really became THAT guy defensively his 2nd year in Memphis at age 28/29).
Iggy & Butler: Okoro is already more productive than Igoudala who had his rookie year a full year older than Okoro is right now and Jimmy Butler who became the full-time starter at SG for Thibs his 3rd year at 24 years old

What he looks like right now, is he can have the potential to be a very good 4th starter/contending glue starter who can win games for you by complimenting your top 3 guys perfectly while making nights really hard for the primary ball handlers and scorers that fit his matchup profile (which is just a little shorter and less reach than the PG13's, Kawhi's and Brons but a perfect match potentially for the other half of perimeter stars like Kyries, Hardens, Stephs and like we just saw last game...Trae's). I can guarantee you that Thibs and Doc Rivers would give their left nut to have him out there for those series last year when Trae sent them home after watching what he did to him last game. Guarantee it. And we're talking about a 20 year old with less than 100 games who's defensive impact is not reliant at all on his offense.

Patience with this one

@I'mWithDan : rather than respond to your message above, I'm just gonna jump on @RchfldCavRaised 's back and say "me too." He hit most of the points I planned to address, except he said it better than I would have.

One other point worth addressing (and @The Human Q-Tip started down this road a bit in his message above): Okoro has played the second-most minutes out of the entire 2020 class (only Edwards has played more), with 2253. (Patrick Williams is a not-particularly-close third place at 2065.) That speaks to two separate issues:

1. Okoro has shown durability in his brief career. You can't help the team if you're not available. (The Dylan Windler Theorem)

2. I don't have stats to back this up at the moment, but players are going to decline in performance the more minutes they play. It makes sense a priori for several reasons. One, they're playing more minutes when fatigued. Two, they're not being confined to a 15-20 MPG role where their strengths can be maximized and their weaknesses not as exposed (as is the case with 15-20 MPG/game guys like Okongwu or Vassell). Third, it gives opposing teams that much more video to study.

I'm saying that if Okoro had been drafted by a team that didn't have such a crying need for someone, anyone to play -- a San Antonio or Atlanta, for example -- and he were playing 15-20 MPG, his numbers probably would look a lot better. (Talking about ratios here, obviously; the raw counting stats would be lower.) I'd be very careful about taking the stats compiled by Okongwu or Vassell -- numbers compiled in less than 20 minutes per game -- and assuming they will extrapolate to the 32+ MPG that Okoro has played since Day One.