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Wham with the Right Hand

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Fangraphs has their series preview up.


Yankees bats against Tribe pitching and defense. They flesh it out with a lot of numbers. I’ll just add a few more and highlight a few of theirs.

Indians are 18-12 at home; Yankees are 11-18 on the road. The Indians have won 9 of 11 while the Yankees have lost 6 of 8.

The Yankees lead the A.L. in scoring but are hitting .220/.317/.350 on the road. However, they did not have Stanton and Judge for a chunk of the season and had the third most games lost to injury, so with everybody healthy now they should be at the top of their game.

That being said, Judge is hitting .205 and Stanton .200 since coming off the injured list.

Defensively the Yankees are middle of the pack in the Fangraphs rankings but are last in the majors in errors per game. This could be critical in a close game if an error is made at the wrong time. The Indians rank 2nd defensively.

Looking at some of the Yankees players, D.J. LeMahieu is the A.L. batting champion at .364, hitting .448 at home. On the road, however, he’s just a solid hitter with a line of .283/.713.

Luke Voit had a huge year with 22 HR’s in only 213 at-bats, which projects to over 60 in a full season. But on the road he hit .212 against .339 at home. He has only 6 hits in his last 28 at-bats. Very impressive season but not on the road and not lately.

Clint Frazier had a .905 OPS. Same thing; it was 1.068 at home and .711 on the road. He has one hit in his last 16 at-bats.

Aaron Judge played in only 28 games with a home OPS of 1.262 versus .690 away. Giancarlo Stanton was the opposite hitting .968 on the road against .185 at home. He’s 2 for his last 19, hitting .182 in August and .200 in September.

Gio Urshela is hitting a robust .323/820 on the road and is crushing it in September at .390/.924. He looks like their hottest hitter at the moment. He also hit .314/.902 against RHP’s, so he could be an impact player.

As for the starting pitchers, Gerritt Cole is the real deal at 7-3, 2.84, although the Fangraphs preview points out he’s not nearly as dominant as last year. But he seems to be peaking at the right time, allowing only 14 hits in 27 innings in September. He’s allowed three earned runs in his last four starts.

A couple of things about Cole, however. One, his road ERA is 3.67. Two, he becomes progressively less effective as the game goes on.

1st time through the order: .146/.564
2nd time through: .206/.652
3rd time through: .266/.800

He’s also allowed 14 home runs in 12 starts. So the key will be to make him pitch deep into counts and get some runners on base so we get the third time through the order in the 5th or 6th inning and then do some damage. Ideally, Bieber shuts them down and we get a home run off Cole with a runner or two on base.

Masahiro Tanaka, 3-3, 3.56, is the kind of crafty veteran that typically bedevils the Tribe. His road ERA is 2.33. He has the most extreme reverse split I’ve seen as righties are hitting .330/.848 while lefties are at .188/.655. This appears to be a one-year aberration but we’ll be throwing a lot of lefties at him.

In his last two starts Tanaka has gone 11 innings, allowing 15 hits, and 6 earned runs. He’s very hittable, but my observation is the Indians like fastballs and don’t do well against junk. He throws the fastball 32% of the time averaging 92.7 mph.

If it goes to three games I agree with Fangraphs that they’ll probably go with Happ, a 37-year-old lefty soft tosser. It better not go three.

Their bullpen is average in ERA and WAR.

So it’s a classic matchup of power at the plate against pitching and defense. They say good pitching stops good hitting and that has to be true in this series. Add in that the Yankees are 11-18 on the road and are only hitting .220 and it seems possible the Indians pitching could hold that offense in check while the offense scrapes together a few runs.

By the way, Jordan Luplow has a 160 wRC+ in September so he’s got a hot bat right now along with Hosey. Lindor had a miserable year at the dish (for him) with a wRC+ of 100. This is his chance to salvage his season.

My feeling is the Yankees have too many hitters who can kill you with one swing while the Indians need to string hits together to score. A couple of bad pitches, even by Bieber who has allowed seven home runs in 12 starts, could be the difference in a 3-2 loss. But the Yankees have hit 67 homers at home against 27 away, so if the Tribe pitchers can keep the ball in the park that would be a huge plus.
 
Fangraphs has their series preview up.


Yankees bats against Tribe pitching and defense. They flesh it out with a lot of numbers. I’ll just add a few more and highlight a few of theirs.

Indians are 18-12 at home; Yankees are 11-18 on the road. The Indians have won 9 of 11 while the Yankees have lost 6 of 8.

The Yankees lead the A.L. in scoring but are hitting .220/.317/.350 on the road. However, they did not have Stanton and Judge for a chunk of the season and had the third most games lost to injury, so with everybody healthy now they should be at the top of their game.

That being said, Judge is hitting .205 and Stanton .200 since coming off the injured list.

Defensively the Yankees are middle of the pack in the Fangraphs rankings but are last in the majors in errors per game. This could be critical in a close game if an error is made at the wrong time. The Indians rank 2nd defensively.

Looking at some of the Yankees players, D.J. LeMahieu is the A.L. batting champion at .364, hitting .448 at home. On the road, however, he’s just a solid hitter with a line of .283/.713.

Luke Voit had a huge year with 22 HR’s in only 213 at-bats, which projects to over 60 in a full season. But on the road he hit .212 against .339 at home. He has only 6 hits in his last 28 at-bats. Very impressive season but not on the road and not lately.

Clint Frazier had a .905 OPS. Same thing; it was 1.068 at home and .711 on the road. He has one hit in his last 16 at-bats.

Aaron Judge played in only 28 games with a home OPS of 1.262 versus .690 away. Giancarlo Stanton was the opposite hitting .968 on the road against .185 at home. He’s 2 for his last 19, hitting .182 in August and .200 in September.

Gio Urshela is hitting a robust .323/820 on the road and is crushing it in September at .390/.924. He looks like their hottest hitter at the moment. He also hit .314/.902 against RHP’s, so he could be an impact player.

As for the starting pitchers, Gerritt Cole is the real deal at 7-3, 2.84, although the Fangraphs preview points out he’s not nearly as dominant as last year. But he seems to be peaking at the right time, allowing only 14 hits in 27 innings in September. He’s allowed three earned runs in his last four starts.

A couple of things about Cole, however. One, his road ERA is 3.67. Two, he becomes progressively less effective as the game goes on.

1st time through the order: .146/.564
2nd time through: .206/.652
3rd time through: .266/.800

He’s also allowed 14 home runs in 12 starts. So the key will be to make him pitch deep into counts and get some runners on base so we get the third time through the order in the 5th or 6th inning and then do some damage. Ideally, Bieber shuts them down and we get a home run off Cole with a runner or two on base.

Masahiro Tanaka, 3-3, 3.56, is the kind of crafty veteran that typically bedevils the Tribe. His road ERA is 2.33. He has the most extreme reverse split I’ve seen as righties are hitting .330/.848 while lefties are at .188/.655. This appears to be a one-year aberration but we’ll be throwing a lot of lefties at him.

In his last two starts Tanaka has gone 11 innings, allowing 15 hits, and 6 earned runs. He’s very hittable, but my observation is the Indians like fastballs and don’t do well against junk. He throws the fastball 32% of the time averaging 92.7 mph.

If it goes to three games I agree with Fangraphs that they’ll probably go with Happ, a 37-year-old lefty soft tosser. It better not go three.

Their bullpen is average in ERA and WAR.

So it’s a classic matchup of power at the plate against pitching and defense. They say good pitching stops good hitting and that has to be true in this series. Add in that the Yankees are 11-18 on the road and are only hitting .220 and it seems possible the Indians pitching could hold that offense in check while the offense scrapes together a few runs.

By the way, Jordan Luplow has a 160 wRC+ in September so he’s got a hot bat right now along with Hosey. Lindor had a miserable year at the dish (for him) with a wRC+ of 100. This is his chance to salvage his season.

My feeling is the Yankees have too many hitters who can kill you with one swing while the Indians need to string hits together to score. A couple of bad pitches, even by Bieber who has allowed seven home runs in 12 starts, could be the difference in a 3-2 loss. But the Yankees have hit 67 homers at home against 27 away, so if the Tribe pitchers can keep the ball in the park that would be a huge plus.
Don’t forget this is also an opportunity for Lindor to audition for a future wearing pinstripes as a FA.
 
Don’t forget this is also an opportunity for Lindor to audition for a future wearing pinstripes as a FA.


Oh yeah.... A MVP performance from Lindor during the playoffs really invalidates his somewhat pedestrian short year stats. Everyone wins the better he plays.
 
Two things about the Yankees...

The perception..

Big bad monster team with a payroll four times ours and an all star at every position.

What they are away from the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium..

The Kansas City Royals.

The Royals put up a similar OPS this season as the Yanks did on the road. KCs season ERA was nearly a run better than the Yankees away.

Vs playoff teams the Yankees went 10-17. Cleveland went 19-16.

Cole is Cole, meaning dominant. But Tanaka and Happ in their careers have been...uh...bad to very bad vs the Tribe in Progressive.

The adage that good pitching beats good hitting has been mostly true when it comes to Cleveland vs NY, esp in the Prog.

For the most part, those big names have swung little bats in Cleveland.

Career OPS...

Judge.....718
Stanton...733
Gardner...728
Hicks.......496
Sanchez..607
LeMahieu..717

A lot of angst over the 2017 Series with NY, but if that had been a three game series we would have won in two. Our problem was that we only had three good starters, and Bauer was forced to go on short rest and got bombed in game four..and Kluber was gassed.

None of that applies this time. Our three starters are better this year than theirs.
 
Oh yeah.... A MVP performance from Lindor during the playoffs really invalidates his somewhat pedestrian short year stats. Everyone wins the better he plays.
You misconstrued my point. Lindor will be highly motivated playing the Yankees. Never said it would obscure his mediocre regular season play.
 
One thing that HAS to happen in this series is Jose producing. His post season production has been abysmal...replacement level.
 
Good point, Cats, about the Yankees being 10-17 against playoff teams. Combine that with being 11-18 on the road and I don't see how they stand a chance. :chuckle:

There are a lot of reasons to like the Tribe's chances but I can't get too optimistic because it's only a three-game series. Cole has allowed three earned runs in his last 27 innings against teams that have better offenses than the Indians. All it takes is Cole on top of his game and one bad pitch by Bieber to lose this game.

Tanaka throws off-speed pitches 68% of the time and those kinds of pitchers give the Indians fits. Same with Happ.

So I'm hopeful but not too optimistic. I suppose it helps that some of the Yankees most dangerous hitters (Judge, Stanton, Voit, Frazier) have not been hitting much the last couple of weeks, but all it takes is one mistake to any of these guys and it's tough to throw 100 pitches without making a mistake or two.

The Tribe needs to string hits together to score and that involves getting hits with RISP which is something they have not excelled at this season.
 
You misconstrued my point. Lindor will be highly motivated playing the Yankees. Never said it would obscure his mediocre regular season play.

He’ll be highly motivated to endear himself to his future employer. He may even forget in which dugout he belongs.
 
I'm not saying that NY isn't a good team...just that on the road they haven't played very well, and esp against other playoff caliber teams. The Indians are a playoff caliber team that has played well against better competition.

Cole is not unbeatable.

(Win/loss below are team records, not individual)

Against playoff teams he is 3-3. On the road he is 4-2. On the road vs playoff teams he is 2-1.

Against playoff teams, Tanaka is 3-4. On the road he is 0-4. On the road vs playoff teams, he is 0-3.

Against playoff teams, Happ is 0-2. On the road he is 2-3. On the road vs playoff teams he is 0-1.

Combined the Yanks are 2-5 when these three pitched on the road vs playoff teams...in spite of being supported by an unstoppable offense vs which a pitcher supposedly can't make a mistake.

Now lets look at our guys.

Biebs was 6-1 vs playoff teams. He was 4-0 at home. He was 3-0 at home vs playoff teams.

Cookie was 2-4 vs playoff teams. He was 3-4 at home. He was 1-2 vs playoff teams at home.

Plesac was 2-3 vs playoff teams. He was 2-1 at home. He was 1-1 vs playoff teams at home.

Combined they were 5-3 vs playoff teams at home, in spite of a pop gun offense behind them.

Chicagos offense scored nine fewer runs than the Yankees. We did a number on them. Cookie did not face the Chisox, but Plesac and Biebs did five times. The Tribe was 4-1 and held Chicago to 15 runs in those games.

What happened in July and August doesn't matter much, so let's look at Sept numbers.

Coles ERA was 1.00 with an OPS of .432.
Tanaka....3.62....773
Happ.......3.07....646

Biebs....2.56.....550
Cookie...1.97...568
Plesac....2.88....635
 
The Yankees have not hit on the road so that may be a bigger factor in those road win/loss records than the starting pitcher. I just read that the Yankees rank 29th of 30 teams in road home runs. It's unbelievable that they have 67 HR's at home against only 27 on the road. Voit has 16 at home and 6 on the road, for example.
 
Good point, Cats, about the Yankees being 10-17 against playoff teams. Combine that with being 11-18 on the road and I don't see how they stand a chance. :chuckle:

There are a lot of reasons to like the Tribe's chances but I can't get too optimistic because it's only a three-game series. Cole has allowed three earned runs in his last 27 innings against teams that have better offenses than the Indians. All it takes is Cole on top of his game and one bad pitch by Bieber to lose this game.

Tanaka throws off-speed pitches 68% of the time and those kinds of pitchers give the Indians fits. Same with Happ.

So I'm hopeful but not too optimistic. I suppose it helps that some of the Yankees most dangerous hitters (Judge, Stanton, Voit, Frazier) have not been hitting much the last couple of weeks, but all it takes is one mistake to any of these guys and it's tough to throw 100 pitches without making a mistake or two.

The Tribe needs to string hits together to score and that involves getting hits with RISP which is something they have not excelled at this season.
to be sure, cole and any other opposing pitcher, doesnt need to be at the top of their game to shut down this lineup
 
Direct matchups...

Cole versus Indians hitters have been truly abysmal.. While clearly a SSS, the Indians have 5 hits in 52 at bats.. Only Jose Ramirez has had any success.. and that was a three run homer.. otherwise, it's a lot of misery..

Biebs being on with strong defense is going to be key to the Indians success in game one. No outs on the base paths will also be significant..

Thoughts?..
 
Lloyd: Sandy Alomar’s big chance is finally here as Indians face postseason

By Jason Lloyd 3h ago 8
Twelve things I think I think about the Indians heading into what is sure to be a wild MLB postseason …
1. Sandy Alomar finally has the opportunity he has always craved. October will be his chance to prove he is worthy of being an MLB manager. It’s perplexing why Alomar, 54, has never gotten the opportunity. With the Indians announcing that Terry Francona will not return during these playoffs, this is Alomar’s team the rest of the way.
2. Let’s assume for a moment this isn’t it for Francona and he will be back in Cleveland next year after a brutal couple of years battling health issues. If Alomar can successfully guide the Indians on a deep playoff run, he’ll surely rise to the top of the list of managerial candidates this winter. The Red Sox and Tigers already have openings. The Mets and Rockies might before long, too. (Alomar, incidentally, interviewed with the Red Sox in 2011 before former GM Ben Cherington chose Bobby Valentine in what became a one-year disaster.)
3. As the number of minorities in baseball’s leadership roles stagnates, Alomar’s name hasn’t surfaced as a viable candidate in years. There are currently two Black managers in baseball (Dave Roberts and Dusty Baker) and four Latinos. Alomar’s fluency in English and Spanish should theoretically be a hit in diverse baseball clubhouses, although those who know him well say Alomar doesn’t go easy on anyone.
4. “He’s not a manager for Latin players. He’s a manager for everybody,” said one former baseball official who knows Alomar well. “He was tougher on Latin guys than the Americans. Oh shit, he was tough.”
5. Alomar has a deep understanding of the game and is rooted in his beliefs. Most importantly, he’s fearless.
6. “He’s sharp. The more you could pile on him, the more he likes it,” the former executive said. “I know one thing: If someone is talking to me as a GM looking for a manager, he’s a guy I’d interview right away.”
7. It’s rare for someone Alomar’s age to suddenly get his first managerial gig, but it wouldn’t be unprecedented. Joe Maddon was 51 when the Rays hired him in 2005 and enjoyed great success. Brian Snitker was 61 when he managed his first season for the Braves in 2017. Both Maddon and Snitker spent their lives around the game and rewarded the clubs that finally gave them a chance. Alomar could be next. October will go a long way in determining his fate.
8. I didn’t like the timing of the Mike Clevinger trade but wrote a few weeks ago that the Cleveland front office has earned the benefit of the doubt on these matters. One of the concerns the Indians had was Clevinger’s durability. Sure enough, he’s battling an elbow injury on the eve of the playoffs. The Padres remain hopeful he could pitch in their wild-card series against the Cardinals, but how effective will he be?
9. The move to leadoff has done little to spark Francisco Lindor, who batted .213 out of the top spot in the order over the final few weeks. Part of it might just be lousy luck. Lindor’s BABIP is .218 out of the leadoff spot. It was .292 last year and is .278 for his career. The Indians, and Lindor, are bound to get lucky at some point, right? Right?
10. Any sort of home-field advantage is significantly reduced this year with no fans at the games, but keep in mind that the Yankees went 22-8 at home this year and 11-18 on the road.
11. This series makes me feel like a couple of home runs could be the difference between winning and losing. Despite all their thump, the Yankees have sort of devolved into home-run-or-nothing of late, and the Indians, well, we all know how tough it is for them to score runs. One well-timed blast from Lindor or José Ramírez or Franmil Reyes could be pivotal.
12. Regardless of regular-season numbers, Masahiro Tanaka is to be feared in the postseason (remember his seven scoreless innings in 2017?). That’s what makes Game 1 so critical. If this series gets to a Game 3, I like the Indians’ odds of advancing. Give me Cleveland in three.
 
Playoff baseball is hell on my nerves. I'm already anxious.
 
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We are better than the Yanks and I think that would prove out in a 7 game series, but these 3 game series are a total crap shoot...nobody is "safe", not even the Dodgers. That said, I am optimistic...we're going to win this coin flip! :cool: :happy (1)::doh (31):
 

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