Real or not? Trevor Bauer is as good as he says he is
12:40 AM MT
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David SchoenfieldESPN Senior Writer
Trevor Bauer will tell you he's going to win the 2019 Cy Young Award. In fact, he has already said it. In a profile in Sports Illustrated a couple of months ago -- you should read
the whole piece -- he told writer Ben Reiter:
"There's optimization to be done, but I'm going to have one of the top 10 changeups in baseball, a top-10 slider in baseball, a top-10 curveball in baseball. I'm going to throw above league average velocity. I'm going to post a mid-two ERA. I'm going to win the Cy Young in 2019. What else do I have to work on?"
From any other pitcher, such bravado would sound out of place. From the outspoken Bauer, a guy who got into hot water in the offseason for trolling a female college student with a barrage of Twitter posts, it's not surprising at all. He says what he thinks, which hasn't made him the most lovable teammate in the
Cleveland Indians' clubhouse, but he also might be right about that Cy Young Award.
In his second start of the season, Bauer pitched seven no-hit innings against the
Toronto Blue Jays in Cleveland's
4-1 victory, with the bullpen losing the bid for a combined no-hitter in the ninth inning. Len Barker's perfect game in 1981 remains the last no-hitter in Indians history -- the second-longest active drought in the majors, behind only the
San Diego Padres, who have never pitched a no-hitter.
The Indians are batting .160 as a team and are uber-reliant on starting pitching. If you think Trevor Bauer, on a night he walked 6 dudes and in the 2nd freaking start of the season, should have been pushed much further past 117 pitches in the name of a no-hitter, please... no.
— Anthony Castrovince (@castrovince)
April 5, 2019
You might remember that Bauer gave up one hit in seven innings in his season debut against the Twins, so if my math is correct that's one hit (and one run) in 14 innings. That's backing up your talk. Bauer is only the second pitcher to go at least seven innings and give up one hit or fewer in his first two starts, joining Lon Warneke, who did it in 1934 for the Cubs with two complete-game one-hitters.
(Quick aside: Warneke won 192 games in an outstanding career and later returned to the majors as an umpire. He quit that after a decade, went into business and then became a county judge in Arkansas.)
Back to Bauer. He did walk six batters in Thursday's game, which ran up his pitch count to 117 and led to the exit after seven innings, so it was more one of those effectively wild no-hit bids than a purely dominating effort where the hitters have no chance.
Better control has been one key to Bauer's improvement since he led the American League in walks in 2015, so the six walks was probably just a blip. Based on last season's 2.21 ERA -- he had a chance at the Cy Young until a
Jose Abreu line drive in August fractured his leg -- and his hot start this year, Bauer's Cy claim is hardly outrageous.
Bauer calls being removed with no-hitter 'right decision'
Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer understands why he was taken out after the seventh with a no-hitter intact because of his high pitch count.
I was more curious about the claim of the effectiveness of his various pitches. Looking at all pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings since 2018, let's see where Bauer rates based on weighted on-base average in plate appearances ending with that pitch:
Changeup: .126 wOBA allowed (best in the majors)
Slider: .131 wOBA allowed (second best behind
Tyler Glasnow)
Curveball: .228 wOBA allowed (25th best in the majors)
Again, his claim wasn't that outrageous. His changeup and slider were dominant pitches and the curveball was outstanding as well. To be even more fair, of the pitchers ahead of him in curveball wOBA, only
Aaron Nola and
Charlie Morton threw more curves than Bauer's 789. (Based on run value on the pitch, FanGraphs ranked Bauer's curveball 16th best.)
So there's no doubting Bauer's offspeed stuff. His fastball, however, remains a pitch he nibbles with at times. Batters hit .261/.383/.383 against it last season with a higher walk rate (14.8 percent) than strikeout rate (11.8 percent). When he's forced to throw it when behind in the count, he doesn't always go right after hitters. That was the case against the Blue Jays on Thursday: five of the six walks came on fastballs (the sixth came on a pitch labeled a cutter).
We've seen enough to know -- not much, really. But that didn't stop us from asking our experts to go out on a limb based on what they've observed so far.
This could be a conscious decision, as he might be willing to give up the free pass and avoid challenging a hitter and giving up a home run or extra-base hit. It's a strategy that paid off last season as the extra-base hit rate against him dropped from 9.2 percent to 5.7 percent even as his walk rate remained the same.
Bottom line: Like him or not, Bauer has clearly moved into the upper echelon of starting pitchers. He talks a big game, but he backs it up.
