Zimmer

[FFRva]

Pilkington was acquired for Cesar, btw

 

[sportscoach]

Pilkington was acquired for an injured platoon bat that would have been dropped from the 40 man at the end of the season and a 32 yr old reliever who had appeared once in the last two seasons. The Indians also saved about $500,000 while acquiring him. If not traded by the Rays, he is unlikely to have been protected in the Rule Five.

In other words, we got him for virtually nothing....or likely could have picked him up for virtually nothing in December.

Battenfeld was acquired for a middle reliever already in arby and a prospect that would not have been protected in the Rule Five. We saved about $400,000 on the deal.

In the end we got those two and about $900,000 for three players, two of which would not be on the 40 man in December, and Maton.

Thats pretty darned close to dumpster diving.

Again, that doesn't mean that they can't, or won't, become quality MLB SPs. But it does mean that we should temper our estimates as to what their value in trade would be.

Let's get your info straight...

Pilkington was the guy we got for Hernandez...

Battenfield we got for Luplow and DJ Johnson...

Straw we got for Maton and Diaz...

Getting anything for Hernandez was a win especially a decent potential left handed pitcher... we finally got some depth in lefties in the minors... he has a good shot of getting added to the 40 man roster...

Battenfield is a higher rated prospect than Morris is... We all know Morris is likely our 6/7 in the rotation depth chart with Morgan at the current moment for the starting rotation in 22. We didn't get him from the dumpster, we got him from a team with one of the best farm systems in the league...

How in the heck is that dumpster diving? If anything that is called smart trading by the FO...

 

[CATS44]

Dumpster diving is smart trading.

But it still stands.

If we got these guys for nearly nothing...and got paid in the process...at the deadline, they aren't gonna be a major piece in any trade in December.

At this point in time, they are depth pieces.

If you rank our young SPs from Cleveland to Akron, they probably are #9 and #10.

Bieber
Civale
Plesac
Quantrill
TMac
Morris
Allen Jr
Cantillo

And thats not counting Espino, who will likely get to Columbus next year.

At this point in time, they all have more trade value.

 

[sportscoach]

Dumpster diving is smart trading.

But it still stands.

If we got these guys for nearly nothing...and got paid in the process...at the deadline, they aren't gonna be a major piece in any trade in December.

At this point in time, they are depth pieces.

If you rank our young SPs from Cleveland to Akron, they probably are #9 and #10.

Bieber
Civale
Plesac
Quantrill
TMac
Morris
Allen Jr
Cantillo

And thats not counting Espino, who will likely get to Columbus next year.

At this point in time, they all have more trade value.

Are you ranking guys via their potential or depth chart wise? No Burns, Williams etc in that if its potential? If depth chart, you are way off btw... Espino isn't getting to AAA if there isn't any injuries mostly because of who is going to be at AAA...

 

[CATS44]

I'm only talking about potential and trade value at the moment.

In re Espino...

If he is as good as many are insisting, the org will make room for him, no matter who is in his way...just like they did for Biebs, Civale, Plesac...and a big kid named Sabathia. Kids like Espino, if he is as advertised, don't get stuck in AA for an entire season. They are put on the express elevator.

 

[sportscoach]

I'm only talking about potential and trade value at the moment.

In re Espino...

If he is as good as many are insisting, the org will make room for him, no matter who is in his way...just like they did for Biebs, Civale, Plesac...and a big kid named Sabathia. Kids like Espino, if he is as advertised, don't get stuck in AA for an entire season. They are put on the express elevator.

He's only at A Ball this season... I expect a split between high A and AA next season. He doesn't need protected until the 24 season, so AA-AAA in 23 and AAA to pros in 24, if everything goes as planned... Biebs, Civale and Plesac were all college kids when drafted, so they were older already than Espino is now. Age 23 making his MLB debut with a very deep pitching organization would be a normal progression.

Plesac and Civale weren't made room for purposely, it was a mix of earning it and injuries... Plesac wasn't even a ranked prospect when he came up...

 

[CATS44]

We shall see...

But if Espino is as good as everybody says, and just spent a half season in A+, it's difficult not to see him get a late season call to Columbus....and a look in MLB in 2023.

The only way that wouldn't happen...if he is as good as he appears to be...is if nobody above him got hurt, nobody above him got traded, and almost nobody above him failed.

We've all been around long enough to have seen our share of Merritts, Morimandos, and Plutkos to understand that a lot of the upper level prospects we have now will eventually fall by the wayside, due to injury or by reaching their levels of incompetence.

We've also recently watched an entire rotation traded away.

 

[CATS44]

I know that everybody is really excited by our SP situation. It looks like both quality and quantity.

I know that I am more excited about it than I've ever been. But my excitement is more focused on the quantity...because the failure rate of high end SP prospects is nearly 80%. 80% don't do diddly squat in the first six years of MLB. (This org obviously does better than that.)

Everybody has their personal can't miss...maybe two or three or even four of them. But history says that there are no sure things with pitching prospects.

At the beginning of 2015 these were our SP prospects in two tiers.

45FV

Sheffield
Mitch Brown
Cody Anderson

40FV

Luis Lugo
Dylan Baker
Grant Hocking
Ryan Merritt
Sean Brady
Plutko

If you are looking for any significant production as a measurement of success, that's a 100% failure rate, although Sheffield has two years left to do something within six years.

The best of them were in the same tier as anybody we had or now have at the beginning of this year...excepting TMac and Espino.

The difference isn't the quality, its the sheer quantity. While in 2015 we had three 45FVs and six 40FVs, we had this year...

Two 50s

Five 45s

Four 40+s

Three 40s

And we added Battenfield (35+) and Pilkington (40)

We also have a slew of 35+s....Morris, Mejia, Scott, and Moss.

That means we have twenty candidates...likely or not...to go along with Biebs, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, and Allen sr.

If we assume that our present rotation, including TMac, but excluding Allen sr, are successes...and look at a 20% success rate from the rest, we have nine solid to elite SPs to cover the rotation for years to come. If we assume that our org will continue to have a better than average success rate in pitching pitching development, we probably have 12 solid to elite SPs for years to come.

I think both assumptions are reasonable.

And if you believe that a better than average to elite rotation automatically makes a team a contender, as I do...

Our window of contention is at least seven years long.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I know that everybody is really excited by our SP situation. It looks like both quality and quantity.

I know that I am more excited about it than I've ever been. But my excitement is more focused on the quantity...because the failure rate of high end SP prospects is nearly 80%. 80% don't do diddly squat in the first six years of MLB. (This org obviously does better than that.)

Everybody has their personal can't miss...maybe two or three or even four of them. But history says that there are no sure things with pitching prospects.

At the beginning of 2015 these were our SP prospects in two tiers.

45FV

Sheffield
Mitch Brown
Cody Anderson

40FV

Luis Lugo
Dylan Baker
Grant Hocking
Ryan Merritt
Sean Brady
Plutko

If you are looking for any significant production as a measurement of success, that's a 100% failure rate, although Sheffield has two years left to do something within six years.

The best of them were in the same tier as anybody we had or now have at the beginning of this year...excepting TMac and Espino.

The difference isn't the quality, its the sheer quantity. While in 2015 we had three 45FVs and six 40FVs, we had this year...

Two 50s

Five 45s

Four 40+s

Three 40s

And we added Battenfield (35+) and Pilkington (40)

We also have a slew of 35+s....Morris, Mejia, Scott, and Moss.

That means we have twenty candidates...likely or not...to go along with Biebs, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, and Allen sr.

If we assume that our present rotation, including TMac, but excluding Allen sr, are successes...and look at a 20% success rate from the rest, we have nine solid to elite SPs to cover the rotation for years to come. If we assume that our org will continue to have a better than average success rate in pitching pitching development, we probably have 12 solid to elite SPs for years to come.

I think both assumptions are reasonable.

And if you believe that a better than average to elite rotation automatically makes a team a contender, as I do...

Our window of contention is at least seven years long.

Don't forget the 10 pitchers we just drafted. Some of them were high end college pitchers that could develop fast.

 

[sportscoach]

Don't forget the 10 pitchers we just drafted. Some of them were high end college pitchers that could develop fast.

I feel Nikhazy will be the first one up from the 21 crew. But Williams and Mace have more upside. People also forget we drafted Hickman from Vanderbilt in 20... Thats usually been a good college for SPs of late.