Zimmer

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Adding Plesac and Amed would be a huge gain. However, it wouldn't be nearly enough to get Winker.

What would we have to add?

And who would be our SS next year if Amed is traded? We don't even have a second baseman and we would have to find a SS as well.

 

[CATS44]

Adding Plesac and Amed would be a huge gain. However, it wouldn't be nearly enough to get Winker.

What would we have to add?

And who would be our SS next year if Amed is traded? We don't even have a second baseman and we would have to find a SS as well.

I have no idea for any of those questions...which is why I dont see a fit.

The Reds are locked into Votto and Suarez for several years, so they aren't looking for a corner IF. They have India and Barrero, who they see as their SS. They are set at catcher.

Their pitching staff is solid, if not spectacular.

What they don't have is outfielders. Winker is it for next year. They can't go into a season planning on Naquin, Senzel, Akiyama, and Aquino.

Plus, you are correct about Amed. I highly doubt he will be traded. We are not going into a season without any dependable MIF.

And I also doubt that we are gonna trade Plesac, unless the return is huge...in terms of both offensive production and affordability.

Fans like to assume that Plesac is the next SP to be dealt. But he is a solid #3 being paid the minimum. The FO trades SPs when they are due for a big jump in salary, not when they are inexpensive. Cost control of SPs is the reason behind the pitching factory in the first place.

If Plesac is traded, it will likely be as part of a package for a young bat that costs very little.

As an example, IMO a Reynolds type contract as opposed to a Marte.

The FO just watched a very good rotation be decimated by unexpected injuries to pitchers with healthy track records. They also watched a large group of youngsters struggle in Cleveland. I doubt they will set themselves up for the same possibility next year, unless the return is huge for 2022 and beyond...and not costly.

So, if we are looking at Plesac trades, we need to take contracts into consideration.

When I look at a Plesac+ for Marte trade, I see...

4 yrs of MOR production (9 fWAR) that will cost about $14 mil + whatever prospects are included for 3 yrs of solid above average production (10 fWAR) for $26.4 mil.

 

[sportscoach]

I have no idea for any of those questions...which is why I dont see a fit.

The Reds are locked into Votto and Suarez for several years, so they aren't looking for a corner IF. They have India and Barrero, who they see as their SS. They are set at catcher.

Their pitching staff is solid, if not spectacular.

What they don't have is outfielders. Winker is it for next year. They can't go into a season planning on Naquin, Senzel, Akiyama, and Aquino.

Plus, you are correct about Amed. I highly doubt he will be traded. We are not going into a season without any dependable MIF.

And I also doubt that we are gonna trade Plesac, unless the return is huge...in terms of both offensive production and affordability.

Fans like to assume that Plesac is the next SP to be dealt. But he is a solid #3 being paid the minimum. The FO trades SPs when they are due for a big jump in salary, not when they are inexpensive. Cost control of SPs is the reason behind the pitching factory in the first place.

If Plesac is traded, it will likely be as part of a package for a young bat that costs very little.

As an example, IMO a Reynolds type contract as opposed to a Marte.

The FO just watched a very good rotation be decimated by unexpected injuries to pitchers with healthy track records. They also watched a large group of youngsters struggle in Cleveland. I doubt they will set themselves up for the same possibility next year, unless the return is huge for 2022 and beyond...and not costly.

So, if we are looking at Plesac trades, we need to take contracts into consideration.

When I look at a Plesac+ for Marte trade, I see...

4 yrs of MOR production (9 fWAR) that will cost about $14 mil + whatever prospects are included for 3 yrs of solid above average production (10 fWAR) for $26.4 mil.

Bimbo kind of stated Plesac is the next to go, but he was expecting for 23 not for 22...

 

[CATS44]

Bimbo kind of stated Plesac is the next to go, but he was expecting for 23 not for 22...

That would follow the organizational pattern, because that's when Plesac hits arby.

 

[xmasbuck]

to be sure, the front office doesn't call around asking what they can get for Plesac, right? they call and say here's who were intested in, can we talk about him - ie, what would you want from us

and Gallo takes #3 into the second deck

 

[Gson]

to be sure, the front office doesn't call around asking what they can get for Plesac, right? they call and say here's who were intested in, can we talk about him - ie, what would you want from us

and Gallo takes #3 into the second deck

CLEFO charts out the guys they have an interest in..
CLEFO visits with/discusses future plans (example: JRam's desire for an extension) with the existing squads on all levels..
CLEFO charts out the guys on the squad & in the minors & assigns a systemized value or some kind of evaluation that says.. we have to receive X much in return to give up Y person...

..A deal can be denied even if the values are met.. based upon someone within the CLEFO providing input about not wanting to do a deal for any number of reasons.. We'll see..

 

[DCTribefan]

I have no idea for any of those questions...which is why I dont see a fit.

The Reds are locked into Votto and Suarez for several years, so they aren't looking for a corner IF. They have India and Barrero, who they see as their SS. They are set at catcher.

Their pitching staff is solid, if not spectacular.

What they don't have is outfielders. Winker is it for next year. They can't go into a season planning on Naquin, Senzel, Akiyama, and Aquino.

Plus, you are correct about Amed. I highly doubt he will be traded. We are not going into a season without any dependable MIF.

And I also doubt that we are gonna trade Plesac, unless the return is huge...in terms of both offensive production and affordability.

Fans like to assume that Plesac is the next SP to be dealt. But he is a solid #3 being paid the minimum. The FO trades SPs when they are due for a big jump in salary, not when they are inexpensive. Cost control of SPs is the reason behind the pitching factory in the first place.

If Plesac is traded, it will likely be as part of a package for a young bat that costs very little.

As an example, IMO a Reynolds type contract as opposed to a Marte.

The FO just watched a very good rotation be decimated by unexpected injuries to pitchers with healthy track records. They also watched a large group of youngsters struggle in Cleveland. I doubt they will set themselves up for the same possibility next year, unless the return is huge for 2022 and beyond...and not costly.

So, if we are looking at Plesac trades, we need to take contracts into consideration.

When I look at a Plesac+ for Marte trade, I see...

4 yrs of MOR production (9 fWAR) that will cost about $14 mil + whatever prospects are included for 3 yrs of solid above average production (10 fWAR) for $26.4 mil.

Return for Plesac will be far less than bounty for Clevenger, Bauer, and Frankie.

 

[Gson]

Return for Plesac will be far less than bounty for Clevenger, Bauer, and Frankie.

Frankie's trade was augmented with Carlos Carrasco.. IF the decision is made to move Plesac.. that may involve an addition player, prospect or two.. The return.. has to meet the predetermined evaluation or the CLEFO will not make the deal..

 

[CATS44]

Frankie's trade was augmented with Carlos Carrasco.. IF the decision is made to move Plesac.. that may involve an addition player, prospect or two.. The return.. has to meet the predetermined evaluation or the CLEFO will not make the deal..

This.

The FO sets a value, and when a team comes looking, the FO sets the parameters.

Unless the FO is backed into a corner, like it was with Klubers injury, it sticks to its evaluation and trade parameters....like with Bauer. The parameters for a Bauer trade were set in December and met in late July.

IF the FO has any interest in trading Plesac, other than general listening to offers, it has already set the parameters for any team that has shown more than merely doing due diligence.

(My guess is that the FO is not shopping Plesac like they shopped Bauer and Clevinger, but they will listen to legitimate offers. My second guess is that multiple teams have made truly interested inquiries.)

The beauty of this situation is that, like Bauer in December 2017 and Clevinger last season, the Guardians do not have to move Plesac...and won't for several years. They can sit on their trade parameters for a long time.

When considering what Plesacs trade value might be, we have to consider his contract situation and his health history.

Bauer had 1.5 years left at a fairly hefty cost. His market was limited to contending teams in win now mode. Clevinger had 2.5 years left and was headed for Arby Two. Clev also had several health issues. While not as limited as Bauer's, his market was still limited to teams that were either contenders, or who planned on contending in 2022-2024.

Plesac is pre arby with four years of control. He also has an injury free history, excepting for breaking his thumb on a table.

While Plesac is not as good of a pitcher at this point in time as the other two were, his contract situation is light years better, and he is not the health risk that Clevinger was. Outside of the Dodgers, almost everybody could use him...from NY to Seattle, and all points in between.

There is one more thing.

While some may view Plesac as little more than a BOR...or at best a MOR...at the same point in their careers, Plesac has been a much better pitcher than Bauer.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Getting back to the thread topic, it appears to me that Zimmer is just treading water this season.

May-July: 34-for-136, .250 BA, .366 OBP, 34.8% K-rate, 2 HR, 15 RBI
Aug-Sep: 25-for-119, .210 BA, .309 OBP, 36.0% K-rate, 5 HR, 15 RBI

He'll be 29 in November. It is time to say he is what he is - a .231 hitter with a .338 OBP and a .345 slugging percentage who strikes out about 35% of his plate appearances? A rangy corner outfielder who takes away a few hits and gets on base a third of the time with great speed, but will never be a run producer?

Should he be in the plans for next year? He's finally had an injury-free season. I'm just not seeing value at the major league level, not for a team contending for the WS.

 

[CDAV45]

This.

The FO sets a value, and when a team comes looking, the FO sets the parameters.

Unless the FO is backed into a corner, like it was with Klubers injury, it sticks to its evaluation and trade parameters....like with Bauer. The parameters for a Bauer trade were set in December and met in late July.

IF the FO has any interest in trading Plesac, other than general listening to offers, it has already set the parameters for any team that has shown more than merely doing due diligence.

(My guess is that the FO is not shopping Plesac like they shopped Bauer and Clevinger, but they will listen to legitimate offers. My second guess is that multiple teams have made truly interested inquiries.)

The beauty of this situation is that, like Bauer in December 2017 and Clevinger last season, the Guardians do not have to move Plesac...and won't for several years. They can sit on their trade parameters for a long time.

When considering what Plesacs trade value might be, we have to consider his contract situation and his health history.

Bauer had 1.5 years left at a fairly hefty cost. His market was limited to contending teams in win now mode. Clevinger had 2.5 years left and was headed for Arby Two. Clev also had several health issues. While not as limited as Bauer's, his market was still limited to teams that were either contenders, or who planned on contending in 2022-2024.

Plesac is pre arby with four years of control. He also has an injury free history, excepting for breaking his thumb on a table.

While Plesac is not as good of a pitcher at this point in time as the other two were, his contract situation is light years better, and he is not the health risk that Clevinger was. Outside of the Dodgers, almost everybody could use him...from NY to Seattle, and all points in between.

There is one more thing.

While some may view Plesac as little more than a BOR...or at best a MOR...at the same point in their careers, Plesac has been a much better pitcher than Bauer.

Absolutely agree with everything you say here CATS. If you look at Plesac’s performance before breaking his thumb and combine that with his age and cost then you have an extremely valuable piece. Because of that he won’t be cheap. He’s pitched like a #2 a good portion of his brief MLB career and one can’t help but think that this season’s performance would have been even better without the silly injury.

MC is in the driver’s seat in any Plesac deal.

 

[CATS44]

Lets say that what we are seeing from Zimmer this year is legit...that his 2022 BABIP is realistic.

What does that give us? A platoon bat whose OPS vs RHers is .718. A plus base runner and very good defender in RF.

Some posters are expecting a Zimmer-Mercado platoon, which makes some sense, until you look at the numbers...which would be a .737 OPS and plus defense in RF. That might be liveable, IF the 2022 numbers are legit, and you want to carry five OFs.

I've seen Harold and Franmil and Naylor give away enough runs this year to last me a lifetime, so the idea is enticing.

But my preference is to bring in a major upgrade...which is what I expect the FO to do. The question for the FO is does it think it has a reasonable chance of bringing in TWO corner OFs. If it does, there is no need to debate the relative merits of any of our three fringe outfielders. DFA them all. I still think that it is likely that one or two of them will not be picked up by anybody else. There are gonna be too many of these type of borderline MLBers floating around that can be signed to a minor league deal.

Zimmer, Mercado, and Harold can go into the bargain bin with the Ben Gamels of MLB outfielders. There will be dozens of them available this winter.

Here's a quick look at OFs who were available on minor league contracts or otherwise picked up for nothing this year...

Gamel
Brian Goodwin
Greg Allen
Danny Santana
Patrick Kivlehan
Travis Jankowski
Jace Peterson
Scott Schebler
Juan Lagares

None of these guys move the needle, but neither do ours.

 

[KluberSociety]

Getting back to the thread topic, it appears to me that Zimmer is just treading water this season.

May-July: 34-for-136, .250 BA, .366 OBP, 34.8% K-rate, 2 HR, 15 RBI
Aug-Sep: 25-for-119, .210 BA, .309 OBP, 36.0% K-rate, 5 HR, 15 RBI

He'll be 29 in November. It is time to say he is what he is - a .231 hitter with a .338 OBP and a .345 slugging percentage who strikes out about 35% of his plate appearances? A rangy corner outfielder who takes away a few hits and gets on base a third of the time with great speed, but will never be a run producer?

Should he be in the plans for next year? He's finally had an injury-free season. I'm just not seeing value at the major league level, not for a team contending for the WS.

...and despite that, 2 WAR if you stretch it out to 600 PA.

At least given the other options, he gives us the best chance to win ballgames now at least vs RHP. So what do you do, pretend like you're a team "contending for the WS" and let him go or put him in a 4th OF role, while actively making the team worse?

The rest of the OF (outside of Zimmer) has combined for ~1.5 WAR in about 1500 PA.

Unless we get 2 OFs or get 1 and move Amed to the OF, I just don't know what we can do with what we've got. The rest of the options that we've called up have been worse. Do we have anyone waiting that we're actually confident in? I like Kwan's numbers but he's completely unproven.

The way I look at it is - we could do a lot worse than Zimmer and he will probably act as a stopgap until something better comes along.

 

[CATS44]

This is true...

IF you believe that a .359 BABIP is sustainable.

IF a .714 OPS vs RHers is valuable.

IF you think that the only options are in house.

 

[PPark]

I suppose the off-season question for the F.O. is whether a lineup comprised of one third Chris Carter and one third WTF can be successful?

Accentuate the positive: one ninth of the lineup is elite.