• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

Zimmer

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
The first four are fine...

Straw
Amed
Jose
Franmil

Bobby is probably at least OK.

The catchers will hit a few homers, and Berto will take some walks.

Gimenez will provide plus defense.

The other two...from outside the org...will provide the bats to put pop in the line up.
 
Adding Plesac and Amed would be a huge gain. However, it wouldn't be nearly enough to get Winker.

What would we have to add?

And who would be our SS next year if Amed is traded? We don't even have a second baseman and we would have to find a SS as well.
It wouldn't be enough? How do you figure? Plesac clearly took a few starts to get back to form, but if you're basing his value off of those few starts then you're wrong. Rosario is 25 and providing close to 2 WAR this season. Winker has provided 2.7 WAR so far this year and has terrible splits. Plesac and Rosario are providing 2.8 WAR this season, and that's selling Plesac at his lowest. He's easily a 3-5 WAR SP over the course of a full season.

Historically, the BTV site is pretty close on values when looking at trades that occured. Trading Plesac and Rosario for Winker would be a significant overpay. The point isn't that the BTV site is a good source, only that most don't share your opinion that "Plesac and Rosario wouldn't be nearly enough to get Winker". It's just not true.
 
It wouldn't be enough? How do you figure? Plesac clearly took a few starts to get back to form, but if you're basing his value off of those few starts then you're wrong. Rosario is 25 and providing close to 2 WAR this season. Winker has provided 2.7 WAR so far this year and has terrible splits. Plesac and Rosario are providing 2.8 WAR this season, and that's selling Plesac at his lowest. He's easily a 3-5 WAR SP over the course of a full season.

Historically, the BTV site is pretty close on values when looking at trades that occured. Trading Plesac and Rosario for Winker would be a significant overpay. The point isn't that the BTV site is a good source, only that most don't share your opinion that "Plesac and Rosario wouldn't be nearly enough to get Winker". It's just not true.
You're probably right if you just compare WAR against WAR, but I was looking at it in terms of what the Reds have and what they need. Just looking at the numbers it appears to me they have a solid five-man rotation and replacing their weakest starter with Plesac would not add much, whereas trading a guy with a .890 OPS would create a big hole in their batting order. One of the other posters pointed out how thin their outfield is already and losing Winker would be a significant hit.

I believe you pointed out that their current starters are either leaving or can't be expected to repeat their 2021performances next season. If that's the case then Plesac would obviously have more value to them next year than he would right now.

There is a lot to consider including money, years of control (two years for Winker), and how strong the Indians feel about Eli Morgan, Cody Morris (1.69 ERA in Columbus), or whoever would take Plesac's spot.

I think the over-arching question is would the Indians consider trading a starting pitcher for an outfield bat this off-season? They will also need bullpen help.
 
You're probably right if you just compare WAR against WAR, but I was looking at it in terms of what the Reds have and what they need. Just looking at the numbers it appears to me they have a solid five-man rotation and replacing their weakest starter with Plesac would not add much, whereas trading a guy with a .890 OPS would create a big hole in their batting order. One of the other posters pointed out how thin their outfield is already and losing Winker would be a significant hit.

I believe you pointed out that their current starters are either leaving or can't be expected to repeat their 2021performances next season. If that's the case then Plesac would obviously have more value to them next year than he would right now.

There is a lot to consider including money, years of control (two years for Winker), and how strong the Indians feel about Eli Morgan, Cody Morris (1.69 ERA in Columbus), or whoever would take Plesac's spot.

I think the over-arching question is would the Indians consider trading a starting pitcher for an outfield bat this off-season? They will also need bullpen help.
Yeah I'm not even suggesting Winker is a good target. I think someone else suggested that, and the point that the Reds may prefer to keep Winker is probably true. I think the means are there to get a better corner OFer than Winker(due to his splits). The only reason I ever mention Plesac is due to the quality SP depth Cleveland has. Between that and the MIF depth, certainly they could make a legitimate offer for an OFer anyway.

I don't know if Cinncy's SP are leaving. I just suggested that a healthy, in form Plesac is more than their 5th starter.
 
It wouldn't be enough? How do you figure? Plesac clearly took a few starts to get back to form, but if you're basing his value off of those few starts then you're wrong. Rosario is 25 and providing close to 2 WAR this season. Winker has provided 2.7 WAR so far this year and has terrible splits. Plesac and Rosario are providing 2.8 WAR this season, and that's selling Plesac at his lowest. He's easily a 3-5 WAR SP over the course of a full season.

Historically, the BTV site is pretty close on values when looking at trades that occured. Trading Plesac and Rosario for Winker would be a significant overpay. The point isn't that the BTV site is a good source, only that most don't share your opinion that "Plesac and Rosario wouldn't be nearly enough to get Winker". It's just not true.

I should have worded things differently.

Over the last two seasons, Winker has been a 3.5 fWAR player. He has two years left of control, and will probably cost around $13 mil.

He is the only legitimate OF on the Reds roster going into the offseason.

Although the Indians have inquired about him, the Reds would create too big of a hole in their roster to make that trade. Their OF situation would be far worse than ours.

The Reds are gonna play for next year. The contract situation dictates that, even if they considered a rebuild.

If they were to trade Winker, they would have to get a MLB OF in return. The only one we have is Straw, and no way will we trade Straw for Winker.

It always possible that a third team could get involved to provide the Reds an OF, but if there is, why wouldn't we just trade for that one?

I think you are right that Plesac and Amed would be an overpay for two years of Winker. But I dont think it would interest the Reds in their situation...and I don't think it would interest our FO.

For both teams, looking to contend next year, such a trade would merely be shuffling holes in the lineup.

I know a lot of posters are looking to trade Amed, but we are not going into next season with two toddlers at the keystone. We need to add to the offense, not subtract.
 
The Reds rotation is intact for next year, if they pick up Mileys option, which looks like a certainty.

Gray has a year left, plus an option.

Castillo and Mahle have two years left.

Gutierrez is a rookie.
 
The Reds rotation is intact for next year, if they pick up Mileys option, which looks like a certainty.

Gray has a year left, plus an option.

Castillo and Mahle have two years left.

Gutierrez is a rookie.
Well, there it is. If Winker is "the only legitimate outfielder" on their roster going into next season and their rotation is intact, then why would they trade Winker for a starting pitcher even if they could get an upgrade at shortstop in the deal?

It would not surprise me to see the Guardians try to package a starter and a middle infield prospect for an impact corner outfield bat, if any are available.

It looks to me like the future middle infield might be SS Brayan Rocchio (.293/.865 at Akron at age 20! And he's a switch-hitter) and 2B Tyler Freeman (.323/.842 at Akron at age 22). Which means Arias would be available, along with others.

A package of either Plesac or Morgan plus Arias should be able to get us a pretty good bat if there are any available.
 
I should have worded things differently.

Over the last two seasons, Winker has been a 3.5 fWAR player. He has two years left of control, and will probably cost around $13 mil.

He is the only legitimate OF on the Reds roster going into the offseason.

Although the Indians have inquired about him, the Reds would create too big of a hole in their roster to make that trade. Their OF situation would be far worse than ours.

The Reds are gonna play for next year. The contract situation dictates that, even if they considered a rebuild.

If they were to trade Winker, they would have to get a MLB OF in return. The only one we have is Straw, and no way will we trade Straw for Winker.

It always possible that a third team could get involved to provide the Reds an OF, but if there is, why wouldn't we just trade for that one?

I think you are right that Plesac and Amed would be an overpay for two years of Winker. But I dont think it would interest the Reds in their situation...and I don't think it would interest our FO.

For both teams, looking to contend next year, such a trade would merely be shuffling holes in the lineup.

I know a lot of posters are looking to trade Amed, but we are not going into next season with two toddlers at the keystone. We need to add to the offense, not subtract.
I don't expect a trade for Winker and the bolded statement is accurate IMO. It just doesn't seem like there's much of a chance of it happening for the reasons you stated.

I expect a corner OF upgrade next season, but I don't know where it will come from. Hell, it may come from within.

I suspect that the Reds are more interested in Amed than the Indians/Guardians are interested in Winker. I think Amed has drawn some serious attention to himself and deservedly so.
 
A few thoughts...

1) The Reds rotation may be set, but it doesn't mean it couldn't be upgraded, and Plesac is a cheap upgrade for most rotations.

2) IMO the Guardians would REALLY be interested in Winker, if there was a fit between the two orgs.

3) Trading a young SP and a MLB ready SS (Arias, Gimenez) makes more sense for us than a trade involving Amed. And Arias is more likely than Gimenez. A trade of that kind may make more sense for another team than a trade involving Amed.

Wham IMO is on the right track, but Morgan won't move the needle much. BORs without projection are secondary pieces, not targets. While we have young pitching depth, and lots of it, most of them are not the type that other teams would target. The ones most likely to be targeted are the ones already in our rotation, along with Espino, Allen Jr, and maybe Morris.

If we are gonna make a trade for a major bat, its gonna hurt a lot. Losing a Morgan, or a kid we just picked up in a minor trade (Pilkington, Battenfield) isn't enough hurt.
 
A few thoughts...

1) The Reds rotation may be set, but it doesn't mean it couldn't be upgraded, and Plesac is a cheap upgrade for most rotations.

2) IMO the Guardians would REALLY be interested in Winker, if there was a fit between the two orgs.


3) Trading a young SP and a MLB ready SS (Arias, Gimenez) makes more sense for us than a trade involving Amed. And Arias is more likely than Gimenez. A trade of that kind may make more sense for another team than a trade involving Amed.

Wham IMO is on the right track, but Morgan won't move the needle much. BORs without projection are secondary pieces, not targets. While we have young pitching depth, and lots of it, most of them are not the type that other teams would target. The ones most likely to be targeted are the ones already in our rotation, along with Espino, Allen Jr, and maybe Morris.

If we are gonna make a trade for a major bat, its gonna hurt a lot. Losing a Morgan, or a kid we just picked up in a minor trade (Pilkington, Battenfield) isn't enough hurt.
This wins the post of the month award. There is a match there that needs to happen. Our #1 need is a corner OF. Winker is a professional hitter. Acquiring somebody like that is definitely going to hurt. But pitching depth is the currency of baseball.
 
There is a difference between pitching depth and pitching trade value.

Morgan, Scott, Pilkington, and Battenfield are pitching depth. This doesn't mean that they can't, or won't become solid MLB starters, esp with our orgs ability to develop pitching. But in the world of pitching prospects, they are a step above dumpster dives...which is how we got two of them. You don't often flip dumpster dives for major MLB upgrades...although we did with Esmil Rogers.

Espino and Allen Jr are pitching trade value. If we put Espino on the block, every GM in baseball would be on the phone to Chernoff. Almost all of them have probably already made inquiries. And when Chernoff has made inquiries, Espino is probably one of the first names he hears back.
 
There is a difference between pitching depth and pitching trade value.

Morgan, Scott, Pilkington, and Battenfield are pitching depth. This doesn't mean that they can't, or won't become solid MLB starters, esp with our orgs ability to develop pitching. But in the world of pitching prospects, they are a step above dumpster dives...which is how we got two of them. You don't often flip dumpster dives for major MLB upgrades...although we did with Esmil Rogers.

Espino and Allen Jr are pitching trade value. If we put Espino on the block, every GM in baseball would be on the phone to Chernoff. Almost all of them have probably already made inquiries. And when Chernoff has made inquiries, Espino is probably one of the first names he hears back.
You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but I don't agree that either Battenfield or Pilkington are a step above dumpster dives. There's some upside to both of them that neither Morgan or Scott have in my view. I would lump all of LT Allen, Burns, Battenfield, Pilkington, Nikhazy, and Mace together as possible MOR SP. Espino and Williams are in a class by themselves as TOR candidates. The power arms of Hankins, Vargas, and Torres could prove to be TOR possibilities when they return to full health. I have to say that Morris intrigues me. I wouldn't put him in the same category as Espino or Williams, but he definitely has #2 upside.
 
You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but I don't agree that either Battenfield or Pilkington are a step above dumpster dives. There's some upside to both of them that neither Morgan or Scott have in my view. I would lump all of LT Allen, Burns, Battenfield, Pilkington, Nikhazy, and Mace together as possible MOR SP. Espino and Williams are in a class by themselves as TOR candidates. The power arms of Hankins, Vargas, and Torres could prove to be TOR possibilities when they return to full health. I have to say that Morris intrigues me. I wouldn't put him in the same category as Espino or Williams, but he definitely has #2 upside.

I feel like Morgan and Scott have a better floor than some of the other names you mentioned. Nikhazy doesn't have much of a different profile than Morgan honestly either. He's a small guy who really knows how to pitch but doesn't throw hard.

Mace from his profile needs the most time, so my opinion him and Pilkington are BOR at the current moment with a chance to get to MOR. Williams is another I am not 100% sold on yet, since he really only had one successful college season, but in time I think the tools are there to at least be a MOR if not more... Battenfield is another I think is a MOR, I dont know if his stuff translates to TOR, but I think his floor is really good, so its very unlikely he fails to pitch in the pros... Allen Jr and Burns have a similar profile to each other in a sense to be. Both guys are smaller, but know how to pitch and likely will make the pros baring injury.. Espino is the best of the bunch, but he still has some work to do before his floor is at MOR level (which in our system, he should get to at least MOR if not TOR).

What I like here is the fact that we have a ton of guys who all likely will hit BOR levels at the minimum baring injuries...

Going into 22 our depth chart for SP is pretty much like this in my mind, you can tell me yours as well

1-5, Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, TMac
6-10 Morgan, Morris, Allen Sr, Scott, Moss
11-15 Stephan, Mejia, Hentges, Battenfield, Allen Jr,
16-20 Pilkington, Cantillo, Curry, Burns, Espino,
21-25 Torres, Wolf, Vargas, Hickman, Davenport

Williams, Nikhazy, Mace, Webb, Bibee, Leftwich, Boone, etc haven't even pitching yet in the minors so they will be behind Davenport, but I expect Nikhazy to move up quickly with any of the other high command guys since they usually have very good floors... Dion Will has done some relief work.. This isn't even including guys like Tully, Hillman, Gaddis etc if we retain them... Vargas I have down the list since 22, is when he works on strengthen and getting that arm gameshape

Also I don't see all three of the Allen Sr, Hentges and Mejia being retained as starters if we keep them all of course. Stephan will start the season as a SP in the minors... Moss has another option, so I think he will get another chance in 22...

@CATS44 You have insulted Battenfield and Pilkington btw... Battenfield is listed as our 17th ranked prospect via MLB.com above Morris (24th).. I really don't think he's a dumpster dive type of player honestly. Pilkington to me isn't a high ceiling guy, but he would be ranked way higher in a non-pitching factory type of organization...

Edit... ummm can Zimmer pitch? His brother can so maybe we can make him into a mix of Otani and Gose...
 
Pilkington was acquired for an injured platoon bat that would have been dropped from the 40 man at the end of the season and a 32 yr old reliever who had appeared once in the last two seasons. The Indians also saved about $500,000 while acquiring him. If not traded by the Rays, he is unlikely to have been protected in the Rule Five.

In other words, we got him for virtually nothing....or likely could have picked him up for virtually nothing in December.

Battenfeld was acquired for a middle reliever already in arby and a prospect that would not have been protected in the Rule Five. We saved about $400,000 on the deal.

In the end we got those two and about $900,000 for three players, two of which would not be on the 40 man in December, and Maton.

Thats pretty darned close to dumpster diving.

Again, that doesn't mean that they can't, or won't, become quality MLB SPs. But it does mean that we should temper our estimates as to what their value in trade would be.
 
Pilkington was acquired for an injured platoon bat that would have been dropped from the 40 man at the end of the season and a 32 yr old reliever who had appeared once in the last two seasons. The Indians also saved about $500,000 while acquiring him. If not traded by the Rays, he is unlikely to have been protected in the Rule Five.

In other words, we got him for virtually nothing....or likely could have picked him up for virtually nothing in December.

Battenfeld was acquired for a middle reliever already in arby and a prospect that would not have been protected in the Rule Five. We saved about $400,000 on the deal.

In the end we got those two and about $900,000 for three players, two of which would not be on the 40 man in December, and Maton.

Thats pretty darned close to dumpster diving.

Again, that doesn't mean that they can't, or won't, become quality MLB SPs. But it does mean that we should temper our estimates as to what their value in trade would be.
You’re mixing up your trades and returns.
1st mentioned, Pilkington which should have been Battenfied who doesn’t need to be rostered.

2nd was not Battenfield but Straw. I also believe Diaz didn’t need rostering this year but next but not positive cause he logged multiple years very low in the system.
 

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-13: "Backup Bash Brothers"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:11: "Clipping Bucks."
Top