KI4MVP
formerly LJ4MVP
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2005
- Messages
- 31,268
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Hollinger's predictions appear to have a bias. With very few exeptions, the teams currently with winning records play worse for the rest of the season, and the losing teams play better. Some dramatically better, e.g. NO goes from .214 to .318. The teams we would be competing against for that 5th spot ALL play better in the projections. This seems highly unlikely.
However if one projects based on current percentages, if we win 10 more games our winning percentage would be .348. Assuming the other teams continue to win at their current rate that would put us 8th. If we won 6 games we would squeak into 5th behind Toronto. To have some insurance against the likelyhood of a team moving up in the lottery winning 5 games would move us into 4th.
BTW, I voted 11-14 and I assumed there will be some player movement.
The hornets are a combination of their recent improved record (.400 over the last 10) and because they've played the 2nd hardest schedule in the league thus far. We're projected at 27 wins, which is 14 more. 30 wins is the projected 8 seed (17 more) while 21 wins (8 more) is tied for 3rd worst record in the league. Also the range of 24 to 28 wins is only projected to make a 1 spot difference in draft position (7 vs 8) and may not make any difference at all if the suns trade Nash.
The trade deadline will determine a lot. If we do nothing more than move Sessions for a pick and don't have any players break out from where we stand now, 24-28 seems a reasonable range. If we either pick up talent and/or have a player break out, we may get that 8th seed. Andy returning in the projected timeframe vs getting traded also will impact the win total.
I don't think the compressed schedule matters too much in terms of endurance unless injuries pile up because we're a young team. The older teams will feel it more, even if they've already played more games, thus have fewer left. It's already impacting the celtics, and they've only played 1 more game than us. Where it hurts us is the lack of practice time to work on things that are happening in the games.