Bills Updates: Pick Watch

[Nphan]

I think this will be a top 7 Pick.

 

[Soda]

I was going to put this up last month when camp was starting because I thought the RBF blog would be up. It's taken long to get RCF up and running that I think RBF still has some hurdles ahead.. I'm just posting this here for your consumption. Critique away.

As we roll towards the season, beginning on Thursday, September 4th, Browns fans already have another reason to wait until next year. The recent history of the Browns and their reincarnation after Modell’s financial insecurity drove the beloved team away need not be re-hashed over again. What we do know is that when it comes to the Browns, we’re always excited about the coming draft. This season will be no exception.

Enter the Buffalo Bills.

Much like when the Browns’ brass watched Julio Jones burst out of the gates with just under a thousand yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie for the Falcons in 2011, they again have opted out of selecting a premier playmaker for their fluttering offense when Commissioner Goodell put them on the clock this past May.

Sammy Watkins, a fast and able pass-catcher who has the ability to make people miss in space out of Clemson, was sitting on the board when the Browns had their opportunity to make a selection at #4. It was not to be. The pick was moved to the Buffalo Bills for their 2014 first-round pick (#9 overall), along with first and fourth round selections in 2015 from Buffalo.

While my Browns fan side wanted to see excitement emanating from the 2014 offense, I was certain from the first moment I saw the terms of the trade-down that Buffalo had somehow been hoodwinked into letting go of a coveted first-round pick in 2015. I mean, the Browns moved to pick 9, five spots down from where they naturally stood, at 4. News came out recently that tells you the Bills coveted Watkins, even more than Jadeveon Clowney who was nearly a consensus first overall pick choice by pundits. Wherever he stood with the Bills, their risk is clear. EJ Manual and Watkins must flourish and flourish soon or they will find themselves again amongst the dreads of the league for years to come.

That brings me to my next point. The pick.

I was doing some research of the Bills’ history when it comes to draft place. Some will say that it only takes one season to change the course of history and I’d agree. In my defense, twelve years of history will give one a good idea of what we can expect. In the 12 years I’ve looked back, the Bills have drafted, on average, between picks ten and eleven. As you shrink that sample size looking back, this average position cracks the top-10. Justin Gilbert and a likely top-10 pick in 2015? Doesn’t look so bad, even if a snap hasn’t yet been taken.

We watched the Bills’ defense blossom in front of our eyes during the 2013-14 season, ranking as a top-10 defense that was anchored by a tremendous pass defense. To add some flavor to this narrative, that stellar defense was authored by current Browns head man, Mike Pettine. Of course, it isn’t just a coach that gets it done. Rookie Kiko Alonso was a major cog in that linebacking core and it certainly doesn’t hurt to have Marcel Dareus and Mario Williams on the defensive line. So, while the offense left much to be desired without EJ Manual, there was something happening in Buffalo that was ready to build upon.

This season will be much different for Buffalo. You can bet that there will be many tuned in throughout Browns country, to boot. Unfortunately for Buffalo, Kiko Alonso is out for the season with a torn ACL. Cordy Glenn, the left tackle of the offensive unit, is questionable for Week 1 with a mysterious illness that has everyone guessing. Marcel Dareus has his own problems, which kept him from beginning camp with the rest of the team. Stevie Johnson, the best wide receiver on the team, was shipped to San Francisco for a conditional fourth round pick. I’d say this is a pretty bumpy start for Doug Marrone’s squad, which is also introducing an entirely new defensive coaching staff to replace Pettine and much of the remainder of that 2013-14 staff.

Ultimately, this will be a test for the Bills and Marrone to show that they have the wherewithal to overcome significant hindrances that will hang over their head for training camp and the season. The death of the organization’s coveted owner, Ralph Wilson (may he R.I.P), is a back-drop to the uncertainty that exists on the field.

One thing I am sure of, the Browns and their fans will be eagerly checking the new scoreboards in First Energy Stadium to see how the Bills are playing during every home game. Browns fans always have ample anticipation towards the 16 games ahead, but we now have reason to pay attention to Buffalo, the City three hours north of Cleveland. Also, there’s little doubt that Watkins will garner some attention, if he’s playing well, by those folks who enjoy lashing out at the Browns’ front office.

Here at RealBrownsFans, we will be paying attention to the big picture; where will the Browns stand today and going into the 2015 draft?

 

[Holden beach]

I'm realistically expecting two top 5 picks in the 2015 draft. I have a weird feeling they'll be next to each other too. I'm going to guess we'll own the 3rd (Buffalo), and 4th (Browns) overall picks.

Wow cdt, that is some pretty severe pessimism there. If the Browns have the 4th pick (again!), that translates to 4 wins (again!) as the ceiling in 2014.

An old sales pro that I worked with had a bit of a world weary attitude told me one day "I am not a pessimist, I am an optimist with experience".

Being a Browns fan is a burden.

I am thinking that 6 wins is an achievable goal, and 7 wins would make for a good season with a new coaching staff and scheme (again!) as well as front office (again!).

I want your prediction of the Bills providing the Browns with the 3rd pick in the 2015 draft to come to fruition.

In short, I am hoping your prediction is half right.

 

[MalTalm]

I'd be shocked if this Browns team manages 6 wins. I don't see it.

 

[Frank Stallone]

EJ Manuel sucks ass

EDIT: If everyone thinks the Browns are going to suck based off 2 preseason games, then we will have two top 3 picks... based off of the Bills preseason games.

 

[Frank Stallone]

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

EJ Manuel sucks ass

EDIT: If everyone thinks the Browns are going to suck based off 2 preseason games, then we will have two top 3 picks... based off of the Bills preseason games.

Hopefully that way we can draft Mariotta and Winston...then we can ensure the front office doesn't totally fuck up and pick the wrong guy...hahaha

 

[Ohio]

Hopefully two top 10 picks is enough to get us Winston or Mariotta.

 

[Frank Stallone]

Hopefully two top 10 picks is enough to get us Winston or Mariotta.

What a way that would be to basically say "we failed" this year at the draft.

 

[macbdog]

What a way that would be to basically say "we failed" this year at the draft.

Actually, it would technically be trading the no. 26 pick and a 3rd rounder to move up to the top of the 2015 draft. Which is below the NFL's compensaton ratings for draft trades. Incredibly shrewd maneuvering by Farmer- moves up a cheaper cost while also vastly increasing the team's season ticket sales.

 

[Frank Stallone]

Actually, it would technically be trading the no. 26 pick and a 3rd rounder to move up to the top of the 2015 draft. Which is below the NFL's compensaton ratings for draft trades. Incredibly shrewd maneuvering by Farmer- moves up a cheaper cost while also vastly increasing the team's season ticket sales.

What? I don't follow.

I'm saying draft a QB after taking Manziel would be a pretty big fail for the FO.

 

[macbdog]

What? I don't follow.

I'm saying draft a QB after taking Manziel would be a pretty big fail for the FO.

...but not if the QB taken, Manziel, helped to put them into position to get the actual good QB. If the Browns draft a good young QB in 2014, that guy probably does well enough to discourage the team from taking Mariota and- not only that- may cause the Browns to win one or three games too many. Was actually a masterstroke by the Browns FO. Sorry you want to hate on it.

 

[cdt]

I was optimistic about our season until the QB play from training camp up until this point. Then our 1st team defense being shredded by the Rams 3rd string QB and 2nd team offensive unit pretty much nuked the rest. I'm not saying 3-13 or 4-12 but if we can't score, and our defense regresses. Well...

 

[Frank Stallone]

...but not if the QB taken, Manziel, helped to put them into position to get the actual good QB. If the Browns draft a good young QB in 2014, that guy probably does well enough to discourage the team from taking Mariota and- not only that- may cause the Browns to win one or three games too many. Was actually a masterstroke by the Browns FO. Sorry you want to hate on it.

Alright, I understand the point you're making... but there is no way in hell that was their plan haha. If they wanted to be shitty and take a QB this year (if this is your point) then they'd have just not drafted a QB at all in this previous draft. Why the hell would you waste a pick like that?

If this front office actually had that as a plan, I hope they all lose their jobs within the next year.

 

[MalTalm]

I was optimistic about our season until the QB play from training camp up until this point. Then our 1st team defense being shredded by the Rams 3rd string QB and 2nd team offensive unit pretty much nuked the rest. I'm not saying 3-13 or 4-12 but if we can't score, and our defense regresses. Well...

I'm with you on the QB play, but I'm hopeful that Manziel figures something out this year or, barring that, Hoyer is capable of being the game manager we want him to be and can at least provide mediocre play for the season.

But I would caution you on looking too much into the defensive struggles in preseason. Gilbert getting torched? Yeah, that will probably happen a few times this year as he learns to play in the NFL. But the D-Line play and LBs? Pettine is going to play everyone very vanilla during the pre-season. There's no reason to dial up the big blitz packages and give teams footage to prepare for once the season starts. The Browns haven't even cracked the defensive playbook yet. Come week 1, I fully expect they will look like a completely different unit.