Offseason Rumors

[AZ_]

I just struggle to see who is available that is worth dealing Salazar or Carrasco and it end up being a net gain for the Indians.

Puig scares me with declining numbers and locker room issues
Frazier's road splits are meh
Ozuna/Prado might be interesting? But again, not sure taking away one of the big 3 is worth it

Just feels like trading Salazar/Carrasco for a bat is shuffling pieces without actually improving much.

Don't disagree with this, they'll struggle to ind a fit.

Want no part of Puig, he's a declining mess right now. Frazier as I eluded to earlier is probably an average player outside of GAB in a tougher league.

They'll have their work cut out for them.

 

[Nom]

Don't disagree with this, they'll struggle to ind a fit.

Want no part of Puig, he's a declining mess right now. Frazier as I eluded to earlier is probably an average player outside of GAB in a tougher league.

They'll have their work cut out for them.

Wonder if the Cubs would part with any of their young hitters?

Sort of scared of the idea that they need to trade a pitcher for a hitter. If the right deal comes along, sure - but why go into the offseason with the mentality that you need to trade Salazar or Carrasco? Seems insane.

 

[Derek]

percentage of plate apperances where a ball is put in play.

So. An atbat ends 78% of the time with the ball put in play, but has a .06 lower BABIP than league average.

However, he's been on par with that number (78%) every year he was in the minors.

You say that like it's not a substantial amount. I'd like to see some numbers to compare that 78% to, but 10% above league average seems substantial as well.

I'm not saying he's destined to suck. I'm just saying he's unlikely to repeat the success he had this year. I doubt you think he's going to continue on with an ERA around 3. He's much more likely to drift toward his FIP and xFIP which are both in the low to mid-4's. That's not terrible, but if we can make a deal with somebody who thinks his success is sustainable, I'd love to do it.

 

[macbdog]

I guess it's possible that he's an exception. It's very doubtful though, especially to the extent of this past season. When the ball is being put in play so often, you're at the mercy of chance quite a bit. He was very lucky this season in terms of BABIP.

Without substantial improvement in the aspect of missing bats, he'll struggle to be get anywhere close to the results he obtained last year.



I didn't say my plan was to just give him away. If you put out your feelers, and make your offers, and can't do any better than a Mark DeRosa-type, I'm not advocating for a trade.

Lol I came off more flippant than I meant to be. I think trading a Cody Anderson should be in the cards and think the Tribe could get something useful I just think folks need to temper their expectations accordingly: I don't see any package centered around him getting the team someone really proven. If they can pull something off, fine, but I think they end up with a Brandon Moss type in a deal like that. Just got to find the Moss type who will produce.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Would not be a fan one bit if we traded Salazar for a reclamation. 25, improving, coming off of a 3 fWAR (30th in MLB), 3.48 xFIP season (23rd in MLB), and under team control until 2021. Only way I'd be good with it is if we get a sure thing back. I'm talking Goldschmidt level sure thing. No reclamation guy like Ozuna.

Still in favor of trading Bauer (and prospects if need be) for a bat over any other move.

Also, not worried about Cody Anderson regressing one bit, cause if he does, I don't think it'll be in Cleveland, it'll be Columbus. Right now he is on the outside looking in for the rotation, with Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Bauer, and Tomlin ahead of him...and I figure they bring in a vet starter (I really want them to go after Wei-Yin Chen regardless if they trade someone or not, though his price tag might be too high) like they have in the past few offseasons.

 

[elcheato]

Don't disagree with this, they'll struggle to ind a fit.

Want no part of Puig, he's a declining mess right now. Frazier as I eluded to earlier is probably an average player outside of GAB in a tougher league.

They'll have their work cut out for them.

Not sure classifying Puig as a "declining mess" is a fair evaluation. He was dealing with injuries through most of the season and had a down year. I guess there's a chance he's "declining" but he proved to be a pretty dynamic offensive player the previous two seasons, and I'd be willing to take a chance on him rebounding with better health. Now obviously I'm not going to deal Carrasco for him, and I'm not sure what I'd actually trade for him, but he'd be a welcome addition in my eyes.

He's on a very affordable contract as well.

 

[EdMonix11]

Uh the other teams in baseball have access to the same stats you guys have and probably have the same opinion of Cody Anderson and his low K rate. This idea of 'packaging' a bunch of C prospects never really happens, and when it does, it gets you a Mark DeRosa.

FWIW, one of the "C prospects" the Indians traded for Mark DeRosa was Chris Archer.....

 

[MoFlo]

mlbtraderumors posted their off-season outlook:

Guaranteed Contracts

• Jason Kipnis, 2B: $45.5MM through 2019 (including BO of 20 option)
• Corey Kluber, RHP: $36.5MM through 2019 (including BO of 20 option)
• Yan Gomes, C: $20.95MM through 2019 (including BO of 20 option)
• Carlos Carrasco, RHP: $19.6625MM through 2018 (including BO of 19 option)
• Chris Johnson, 3B/1B: $17.5MM through 2017 (including BO of 18 option)
• Michael Brantley: $15MM through 2017 (including BO of 18 option)
• Carlos Santana, 1B/DH: $9.45MM through 2016 (including BO of 17 option)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)

• Josh Tomlin (4.151) – $3.1MM
• Bryan Shaw (4.081) – $2.8MM
• Lonnie Chisenhall (3.158) – $3.0MM
• Zach McAllister (3.077) – $1.0MM
• Cody Allen (3.076) – $3.5MM
• Nick Hagadone (3.056) – $600K
• Jeff Manship (2.130) – $700K
• Non-tender candidate: Hagadone

Contract Options

• Ryan Raburn, OF: $3MM club option with a $100K buyout

Free Agents

• Mike Aviles, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Webb

With a little more than $41MM committed to the 2016 payroll plus another $15MM or so in arbitration raises looming, plus 10 spots at or near the league minimum, Cleveland’s payroll presently projects to about $61MM. That’d be about $26MM south of their Opening Day mark from 2015, and while it’s not clear if they’ll be willing to spend back up to that level — the team did, after all, eat $10MM in the trade that sent Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to Atlanta — there appears to be a fair amount of room to make additions. Significant additions, however, may not be as necessary as one would think when glancing at the team’s record.

On paper, the 2015 Indians look like a club that should’ve contended for a playoff spot more credibly than they actually did. The team finished eighth in the Majors with a collective 3.68 ERA on the strength of an impressive, team-controlled rotation and a bullpen filled with quality arms. On the offensive side of the spectrum, Cleveland’s hitters combined to hit .256/.325/.401, which translates to a wRC+ of 99. (That is to say, essentially, their hitters’ collective production was one percent below the league average.)

Given those figures and he fact that the team’s pending free agents are more role players than everyday contributors, there’s reason to believe that Antonetti, Chernoff and the rest of the front office don’t need a drastic overhaul to experience better results on the field next year. A rebound from Yan Gomes and a full season of the incredible Francisco Lindor (my personal pick for AL Rookie of the Year) will go a long ways toward improving the club’s record. That said, there are still some very clear areas of need.

First and foremost is the team’s lack of production at third base. Indians third basemen combined to slash just .228/.273/.356. While players like Giovanny Urshela and Jose Ramirez graded out well defensively, neither provided much in the way of offense. Lonnie Chisenhall, long hoped to be the future at third base, now looks like more of an answer in right field due to the strong defensive contributions he turned in following the change. Chris Johnson has a good deal of experience at the hot corner but has a questionable glove and significant platoon issues, making it a stretch to use him as an everyday option there.

The free agent market offers little in terms of certainty at third base, but Cleveland could make a run at David Freese to fill the need. A slightly above-average bat and slightly below-average glove, he’s not an exciting option but could solidify the position. His age — he’ll play next season at 33 — figures to keep his price down, to some extent. Daniel Murphy could be another option, even though the longtime Mets infielder has spent far more time at second base than third base in his career.

Turning to the trade market, Martin Prado, Yunel Escobar and Luis Valbuena represent potential short-term fixes. Each is signed through 2016. Trevor Plouffe‘s name figures to come up as a potential trade candidate given the emergence of Miguel Sano, though it’s worth wondering if the Twins would be averse to an intra-division swap. The two sides have lined up on a pair of trades in the past six years, but those were minor deals involving Jim Thome and Carl Pavano in the late stages of each veteran’s career, whereas Plouffe is in the midst of his prime. A higher-ceiling medium-term trade candidate would be Todd Frazier, but the cost of a cross-state swap with the Reds would be significantly higher than the cost to acquire any of the previously mentioned names. While I personally feel the Reds should be open to dealing Frazier to accelerate their rebuild, there’s been no indication that such a scenario is something to which Cincinnati is open. Displaced Phillies third baseman Cody Asche could be an even longer-term option, though he’d be a buy-low pickup after a fairly unproductive 2015 season. If those struggled continued, Cleveland would be right back where it started.

The rest of the Cleveland infield is more or less set, with Lindor manning shortstop and Jason Kipnis returning to reprise his role at second base. Carlos Santana figures to see the bulk of the playing time at first base, though Antonetti and Chernoff could seek help in the first base/DH realm. Cleveland is lacking in right-handed pop, for instance, making someone like Mike Napoli or Steve Pearce a fit, at least on paper. If handedness isn’t an issue, John Jaso is an underrated candidate for clubs in need of some DH production, and Justin Morneau could be lower-cost first base/DH option. Either would require a platoon partner, however.

In the outfield, Michael Brantley will again man left field after emerging as one of baseball premier corner outfielders over the past two seasons. Right field figures to be manned primarily by Chisenhall, whose glove out there was highly impressive to Cleveland. Chisenhall posted unbelievable marks of +11 DRS and +9.3 UZR in just 354 innings in right, and while he’s not likely to maintain those rates and save somewhere in range of 35 to 40 runs next year, he’s probably earned a look in at least a platoon capacity. (As mentioned before, Johnson’s been suggested by the Cleveland media as a probable platoon partner.)

The question, then, is center field. Abraham Almonte impressed in 51 games, hitting .261/.324/.455 with sound defense, but he’s never shown that level of production in the Majors until arriving in Cleveland. Almonte hit .233/.283/.336 in 364 plate appearances between the Mariners and Padres before joining Cleveland. He does bring a career .287/.369/.437 Triple-A batting line (999 PAs) to the table.

Nevertheless, banking on that productivity translating to the Majors in 2016 is a sizable risk for a team that will aim to contend and does have some financial flexibility. Given Almonte’s unproven nature, the Indians could, at minimum, seek out a platoon partner. Though Almonte is a switch-hitter, he struggled against lefties in 2015 and has been far worse against them throughout his career. Rajai Davis would be a nice fit on the free agent market, and Justin Ruggiano could be a lower-cost option as well.

A longer-term fix would be to pursue a trade of a controllable center fielder, and one name in which Cleveland expressed interest this summer is Marcell Ozuna. The Indians’ interest in Ozuna pre-dates their acquisition of Almonte, but Ozuna’s offensive upside is more significant than that of Almonte. The 24-year-old Marlins outfielder batted .269/.317/.455 with 23 homers in 2014 but has fallen out of favor with owner Jeffrey Loria this year. Ozuna was demoted to Triple-A on the heels of a 1-for-36 slump and kept in the minors long enough to prompt accusations of service time manipulation from agent Scott Boras. While some may roll their eyes at such allegations due to the source of said complaint, it’s worth noting that Ozuna will narrowly fall shy of Super Two designation. (The question is not whether a demotion was warranted, but rather whether the length was necessary from a developmental standpoint or boiled down to financial manipulation.) Ozuna hit well in Triple-A but upon returning to the Majors likened the demotion to a jail sentence. Reports since have indicated that Loria has soured on the talented Ozuna, who is controlled through the 2019 season.

Miami would most likely ask young pitching in return for Ozuna, and Cleveland is perhaps better suited than any team in baseball to accommodate that desire. Rotation options for 2016 include Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, Cody Anderson and Trevor Bauer. Of all those names, Bauer stands out as someone who could be sent to Miami in an Ozuna trade. The former No. 3 overall pick led the AL with 79 walks this season and finished with an ugly 4.58 ERA, though he was very good through the season’s first few months before his walk rate spiraled out of control. He’s controlled through 2020 and has had more recent success, so his value would seem to be higher than Ozuna’s. As such, other pieces need to be involved (perhaps Cleveland could add prospects and push for Prado to be included in a deal as well). But, an Ozuna-for-Bauer framework would, at its core, represent a swap of two high-ceiling, controllable assets that have struggled in their current setting.

If the team does trade a starter, adding a veteran arm on a one-year deal to provide some depth would seem to be a prudent decision. Anderson was sharp in 2015, but his minuscule strikeout rate and BABIP bring in question the sustainability of that success. Tomlin, too, was impressive, maintaining his increased strikeout rate from 2014, but he hasn’t thrown more than 144 innings in a season since 2011. Gavin Floyd has expressed interest in returning and shouldn’t cost more than a few million dollars. Chris Young could also be a one-year deal candidate, and reclamation projects such as Doug Fister, Mat Latos and Bud Norris could all be looking at such contracts as well.

Left-handed depth in the bullpen will need to be an area of focus, as Nick Hagadone underwent elbow surgery that will cost him six to nine months (making him a possible non-tender). Kyle Crockett and Giovanni Soto are internal options, but Crockett had a poor 2015 between Triple-A and the Majors, and Soto has averaged more than five walks per nine innings at Triple-A in two seasons. Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw and Zach McAllister will be the primary righties, and Jeff Manship’s surprisingly dominant season has earned him a look in 2016 as well.

An under-the-radar need for Cleveland is to improve its bench. In recent seasons, the since-shed albatross contracts of Swisher and Bourn not only hampered payroll but took a pair of valuable roster spots that left bench options thin. Mike Aviles and Ryan Raburn seem unlikely to return, so adding some younger, versatile bench pieces would be of benefit. Jose Ramirez and his glove could have the inside track to one bench spot, and Almonte could become a fourth outfielder if a center fielder is acquired. Roberto Perez is one of the game’s better backup catchers, so that position isn’t an area of need.

 

[macbdog]

FWIW, one of the "C prospects" the Indians traded for Mark DeRosa was Chris Archer.....

Exactly. So thinning the Tribe will be better off by packaging a Cody Anderson + a couple others for an ok bat instead of dealing a legit bigleaguer like Salazar for a legit return could really bite the Tribe in the ass. Teams are pulling more starters from prospect trades than bats in the last few years.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Amazing how fast things change for players...Doug Fister being labeled as a "reclamation project" a year after finishing in the top 10 for the NL Cy Young...

 

[Binkster]

Is there any realistic chance the Indians would be able to snag Prado with Ozuna in a trade package? That would be huge.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Is there any realistic chance the Indians would be able to snag Prado with Ozuna in a trade package? That would be huge.

If they include prospects, sure...Ozuna for Bauer is a wash essentially, though I value young, cost controlled starting pitching more...so you'd have to think about how much a 32 year old, steady but nothing special 3B would be worth...probably would cost a fringe prospect or 2, like the Wendle for Moss trade.

 

[CBBI]

I just don't think Cody Anderson has the sort of value (even with prospects attached) to bring back a bat that would actually be a legitimate upgrade over what we already have.

Salazar would certainly bring back better talent, but I really don't think you're getting back a super high end hitter for him either. I just think the dynamics of baseball have shifted, teams are more willing to give up pitching/pitching prospects than hitting.

 

[Steve_424]

Nick Cafardo listed the Indians as a potential suitor for Alex Gordon in his Sunday column.

 

[Simon]

Nick Cafardo listed the Indians as a potential suitor for Alex Gordon in his Sunday column.

6. Alex Gordon, OF, Royals — Gordon should be on the radar of a few teams this offseason. The Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and perhaps even the Red Sox ( Allard Baird signed Gordon in Kansas City) could all be suitors for the Gold Glove left fielder. The Royals may also try to retain him.