NBA Finals 2015: Cavs vs Warriors

[MirORich]

In the playoffs:

3P made per game:
Cavs 10.2
Warriors 11.1

Yes Barnes, Green, and Iggy can make a three but they are actually all under 33% in the playoffs, with Barnes and Green both under 30%

So I think the casual NBA fan is under the assumption that the Warriors have a huge advantage via the 3P shot when in fact its pretty even.

Another fact lost on most fans, probably including Cavs and Warriors fans:

Kyrie is shooting 47% from 3 in the playoffs, while Steph is shooting 45%(Steph is taking twice as many though)

 

[SVC]

I keep thinking of those early games against Memphis when Memphis bullied Golden State. And then I recall how we bullied Memphis and beat them down by 30 or whatever it was late in the season. Iirc, they were missing Conley, but the impressive part is how we beat them up inside. We owned Zach Randolph and generally pushed them around inside. Referencing, we outrébounded them 49-32 holding Gasol and Randolph to a combined 23 points on bad shooting. Love did have a big game, so that absence hurts, but TT+ LBJ are making Love's absence on the boards not that much of a factor. We just miss his spacing badly.

Memphis slightly outrebounded GS for the series. They lost because they shot so poorly from the field and were horrible from 3, with games of made 3s of 4,5,3,5,4,4 and shot in the 20s %. And they took like 15-19 per game. I don't see anyone holding us to 3 point shooting in that range with the looks Lebron creates. We should outrebound them almost every game.

That GS/Memphis series turned when they abandoned guarding TA, and kind of clogged the middle on defense. Can't do that with our perimeter defenders as they can also knock down shots. Wish we had a little more interior scoring because Moz can't do what Marc Gasol did, but I see us going big and forcing them to match. Forcing them off the 3 point line on defense and make them drive against Moz and TT.

For as good as they are and as banged up as we are, I think we can give them serious issues. Feel like we rise or fall with play of JR and Shump. Clearly LBJ makes everything go, but I assume he'll be himself and rested, but those two need to both defend and shoot well. If they play above expectation as they have been with added help from Delly and hopefully a healthy Kyrie, it could bode well. Lebron has shot way way below expectation from 3. He hasn't shot this bad ever. If he just improved from historically bad to below average, it's going to be huge.

We need TT to check Draymond, and I like our chances. That OKC team that the Heat beat with Harden, Durant, and Westbrook were potent, but green. They didn't defend as well as this GS team, but the ability on the perimeter to push around the slighter OKC guys was big. This series has a few similarities to that situation if we can press the shooters.

They've also been getting away with being really sloppy with the ball. That's not a good habit against a team with LBJ.

We're dogs for sure, but I see myself on the ML for us on series big if it comes in at projected +230 vig free. Usually I have a hard time finding vig free action for serious numbers, but I have a whole lot of GS fans and western homers in my circle to lay off on this one.

I feel we are just slight dogs, not over 2-1. We can get them into a grind it out mess that doesn't favor them, and their stars are mostly slight guys who don't like getting touched up. We can muck this one up hopefully and win it ugly.

 

[Baseline Runner]

As others have mentioned, rebounding is key. Last night our rebounding advantage against Atlanta was a big reason for the victory in an otherwise ugly game. If we can out rebound, out hustle them and get extra possessions while matching them in three point shooting we will win it all.

 

[Birdy89]

We just miss his spacing badly.

I love the additional defense and toughness we have gained more than the "spacing we miss".

Our chances of actually winning a title have gone up exponentially with this more defensive minded unit. People don't want to hear that because they love the big 3 unicorn, but we have more than enough offense with what we have left still to win a championship.

The defense quite frankly has ratcheted up in a way that wouldn't have happened if Love was playing 40 minutes a night still.

That (and not spacing) is what will ultimately carry the day if we end up pulling this out.

 

[bigfoot5415]

Completely unbiased opinion here.

Outside of Tony Allen, name a wing defender that has guarded Curry...Evans, Gordon, Terry, Harden...all notoriously shitty defenders.

Tony Allens length and tenacity killed Curry. Before Allen went out, the Grizzlies were up 2-1 in the series. Allen gets hurt, the despite attempting to comeback in game 6 (played 5 min), Curry killed them all the way to series victory.

Whose to say Shump, Smith, Delly, and Bron cannot rotate and lock this guy up for 48 minutes? Seriously. Length seems to bother him. Look at our February game. If it wasnt for David Lee turning back the clock, we easily win by 20+. Not to mention, our remaining 3 guys have all gone off on the warriors "incredible" defense.

Why is everyone ignoring this, and with a healthy Tony Allen, the Grizzlies probably give them a series game 7 scare. I like our chances.

 

[GonzoRatso88]

The Cavs must have Kyrie Irving at 75% or better or this team will get throttled against Golden State. They are well coached, their players have high basketball IQ, they move the ball well, they defend well and they have the best shooter in the NBA. If Kyrie was 100%, you could say its a draw between the Splash Brothers and LBJ/Kyrie but that is not the case. Someone will have to slow Curry down and our role players will have to play out of their minds a la Dallas Mavericks in 2011.....

 

[secund2nun]

I also laugh at the Warriors incredible defense as well. Those so called incredible defenders are gonna get shredded by lebron with a high volume high efficiency score series while lowly ecu chumps Atlanta and Chicago had their defenses hold lebron to very low efficiency series. Aside from the spurs and Memphis the west doesn't play defense. They run and gun it and that plays into lebrons strengths.

 

[Houston RZ34]

Us doubling up on Curry is the equivalent of them doubling up on LeBron, The ball will find it's way to the next man (or the man after)

We can't do that, They play "Pick your poison" as well as we do. This is the first time where I think we might actually lose....we need a 100% Kyrie for this series.

 

[Walter White]

Us doubling up on Curry is the equivalent of them doubling up on LeBron, The ball will find it's way to the next man (or the man after)

We can't do that, They play "Pick your poison" as well as we do. This is the first time where I think we might actually lose....we need a 100% Kyrie for this series.

You can't let Curry get 6+ threes a game though. We have to run him off the three point line and probably trap him on the pick and roll or at least hedge hard.

That's going to be a challenge because we are taking the opposite approach with the Hawks. We are daring Teague to shoot and playing under on the pick and roll, doing everything we can to stop the drive. Steph can be trouble when he gets in the paint too, but it's better for us if he takes more 2's instead of 3's because he is that good from three.

This is where Delly might have more problems. Not just because Steph is better than Teague, but Delly isn't the best perimeter defender. I'd rather have Shump guard Steph more, but if Delly is in, that would mean he would have to guard Klay, and Klay would take him to the box and score every time. Klay is notorious for exploiting smaller mismatches in the post, so we would have to figure that out.

 

[CHIMOCHIS]

Don't understand this nonsense, you can put Scottie pippin to guard curry at the beginning, once a screen comes all that matters is your help team defense

Make him a passer, don't make him s scorer

 

[Frank Reynolds]

Do you let Curry try to score 50 and focus on stopping everybody else? Do you just concede to Curry? Or do you do the impossible which is slow Curry and let everybody else kill you?

Two different theories on this one, not sure what is the best method to stop these guys.

 

[CHIMOCHIS]

Do you let Curry try to score 50 and focus on stopping everybody else? Do you just concede to Curry? Or do you do the impossible which is slow Curry and let everybody else kill you?

Two different theories on this one, not sure what is the best method to stop these guys.

The most important thing is to make curry actually have to defend

The Warriors do a great job of always hiding him defensively

That's where Irving comes into the picture

 

[Helium filament]

I love the additional defense and toughness we have gained more than the "spacing we miss".

Our chances of actually winning a title have gone up exponentially with this more defensive minded unit. People don't want to hear that because they love the big 3 unicorn, but we have more than enough offense with what we have left still to win a championship.

The defense quite frankly has ratcheted up in a way that wouldn't have happened if Love was playing 40 minutes a night still.

That (and not spacing) is what will ultimately carry the day if we end up pulling this out.

Disagree on the Love being out improving our defense story. Throughout the regular season and Boston series, Kevin was a better defensive player than Tristan. Since Kevin's injury, our entire team has increased their defensive intensity and there's no reason to think Kevin would not have been able to do that since he showed great improvement on his defense throughout the season. I'm glad Tristan has stepped up and improved his personal defense and has increased his rebounding, but again Kevin was our best rebounder and one of our best defensive players. The stats were all posted in the Kevin Love thread before his injury.

 

[Adam]

Disagree on the Love being out improving our defense story. Throughout the regular season and Boston series, Kevin was a better defensive player than Tristan. Since Kevin's injury, our entire team has increased their defensive intensity and there's no reason to think Kevin would not have been able to do that since he showed great improvement on his defense throughout the season. I'm glad Tristan has stepped up and improved his personal defense and has increased his rebounding, but again Kevin was our best rebounder and one of our best defensive players. The stats were all posted in the Kevin Love thread before his injury.

Also seeing how James jones has stepped up you can imagine kev would have been locked in and battling. All those lineups with jj in would be minutes love would have played. He can still play beside TT

 

[secund2nun]

As another poster already pointed out, aside from a 3 game span against Memphis where he was guarded by Allen (and shut down) Curry has faced shitty defenders the rest of the playoffs. Lebron would be even more of a challenge to Curry than Allen was. Shumpert and even Delly would be much tougher to go against than the trash defenders Curry went up against in Harden, Evans etc. I really think people are overlooking this. As much as everyone wants Curry to be some juggernaut force that can consistently score as well from down town as a slashing Lebron or Shaq in the post that is not the case and will never be the case even though Curry is by far the best shooter in bball history. Ultimately a 3 point shot is still a 3 point shot...put a tough defender on him and see.