Tristan Thompson

[CosmoKramer]

That's not a good thing, which is what I was pointing out


Tristan has scored more points, with less efficiency, because he's gotten big minutes on crappy teams. Tristan still has some improving to do to even be the same caliber player as Dale Davis. The only thing Tristan has on Davis is FT shooting.

I'm not agreeing with them being so jump shot heavy, it's just the reality. Our team should rely on crisp ball movement and perfectly timed cuts but let's be real here. It oftens devolves into a couple punchless pick and rolls, followed by our guards trying to bail us out with long jumpers off the bounce.

When I'm talking about his floor I'm making a projection of what his worst case scenario is moving forward, not speaking on the level he is right now. With only small improvements to his game I see him reaching Dale Davis' level, hence his floor. With large improvements moving forward I could see him developing into another Al Horford, hence his ceiling.

And Dale Davis wasn't this great player you're making him out to be. One all-star appearance in his entire injury riddled career? You think that's a bad floor for Tristan, considering he just turned 23?

 

[CosmoKramer]

Last year (i.e. prior to his extension) Favors was just 21 years old and averaged 15 points, 11 boards, 1.6 steals and 2.6 blocks per 36. Tristan is a year and a half older than Favors was, and he's averaging 13 points, 10 boards, 0.5 steals and 0.5 blocks per 36. Perhaps even more importantly, he has legit center size at a shade over 6'10" with a 7'4" wingspan and a 9'2" reach. From a production standpoint, an upside standpoint, and a literal standpoint Favors was head and shoulders above TT going into his extension..

You can't say he's head and shoulders above production wise, that's a gross overstatement. Look at their per 36 numbers from this year, when they both played the majority of games as 22-year-olds

TT: 13.2 points (47.1 FG%, 67.0 FT%, 51.7 TS%), 10.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .5 steals, .5 blocks, 1.6 turnovers

DF: 15.4 points (51.7 FG%, 68.6 FT%, 55.7 TS%), 10.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.7 blocks, 2.2 turnovers


The only place where Favors is head and shoulders above TT production wise is on defense, and that can be explained by Favors spending roughly 2/3 of his minutes at center for the Jazz. In Tristan's rookie year, when he spent 45% of his minutes at center for us, he averaged .7 steals and 1.6 blocks per 36. The transition to full-time power forward changed his responsibilities, I don't think his shot blocking ability disappeared though.

But I do agree Favors upside is higher. That's why my approximation of TT's next contract (4/40) has been lower than what Favors got (4/49).

Wait...Humphries, Bargnani, and Charlie V all have incredibly foolish contracts. Under no circumstances should we use contracts like that as a barometer for what we should pay our players.

The contracts weren't meant to be barometers of what I see Tristan's worth as, they were meant to be examples of how stupid and unreasonable GM's can be. If someone paid millions of dollars to put together a basketball team thought Kris Humphries was worth 12 million dollars a year I can see TT getting 10.

Sure, we can agree to disagree. As for Greg Monroe, teams are more easily fooled into overpaying a guy with a smooth offensive game (see: Bargnani, Charlie V) than a hustle guy like TT. Personally I'd much rather see TT break out and overpay slightly to keep him at 10M/year than watch him stagnate and keep him for 6M/year.

In a perfect world TT keeps his gradual improvement going and he accepts a 4/32 after this year. Most people around here agree Tristan could develop into an above-average PF, that's how much above-average PFs get paid. If he makes it to restricted free agency, I'd have to assume he's going to get overpaid.

 

[Adam]

As far as "growth" averaging more points this year after he switched shooting hands is pretty good. I think a lot of people are overlooking this.

I'm kind of giving him a pass and a return to zero sort of.

It's unprecedented but I'd imagine there's a lot of room for growth when someone changes shooting hands with different moves and everything, etc...

Unscientifically if he just hit the "gimmes" he should probably average 1-3 points more per game, let alone if he were to start hitting an outside shot or develop a move or two maybe.

ive decided to disregard his hand switch as he never shoots jumpers any more. the mountie was always right handed. he is the only pf in the league that uses a rhythm dribble before going up, even if it puts him underneath the basket

 

[Cashius X]

ive decided to disregard his hand switch as he never shoots jumpers any more. the mountie was always right handed. he is the only pf in the league that uses a rhythm dribble before going up, even if it puts him underneath the basket

That's hilarious but true. Im dying at how accurate and dumb that sounds. He really does this every time he gets the ball lol.

 

[Spencer Hawes]

I'm not agreeing with them being so jump shot heavy, it's just the reality. Our team should rely on crisp ball movement and perfectly timed cuts but let's be real here. It oftens devolves into a couple punchless pick and rolls, followed by our guards trying to bail us out with long jumpers off the bounce.

When I'm talking about his floor I'm making a projection of what his worst case scenario is moving forward, not speaking on the level he is right now. With only small improvements to his game I see him reaching Dale Davis' level, hence his floor. With large improvements moving forward I could see him developing into another Al Horford, hence his ceiling.

And Dale Davis wasn't this great player you're making him out to be. One all-star appearance in his entire injury riddled career? You think that's a bad floor for Tristan, considering he just turned 23?

Dale Davis is a bad comparison. DD peaked in his 3rd season stat-wise but continued to improve as a defensive big after and eventually made the all-star game. To say that DD is TT's floor is wrong when you referenced their ppg. DD was a vastly superior rim -protector and defender compared to TT. If DD is TT's floor, then you're saying that TT is going to at least make 1 all-star game in his career and probably projecting him at 3 or 4 all-star games. I just don't see it at this time. I don't doubt his work ethic but like John Wooden used to say, you can't teach height. He's too darn mechanical and slow when he plays.

What I see him as is an Udonis Haslem type player but I think he can be a little better. He'll mean more to the our team than to another so I think other GM's will not be crazy enough to give him a big offer unless they're desperate imo.

 

[Derek]

I'm not agreeing with them being so jump shot heavy, it's just the reality. Our team should rely on crisp ball movement and perfectly timed cuts but let's be real here. It oftens devolves into a couple punchless pick and rolls, followed by our guards trying to bail us out with long jumpers off the bounce.

When I'm talking about his floor I'm making a projection of what his worst case scenario is moving forward, not speaking on the level he is right now. With only small improvements to his game I see him reaching Dale Davis' level, hence his floor. With large improvements moving forward I could see him developing into another Al Horford, hence his ceiling.

And Dale Davis wasn't this great player you're making him out to be. One all-star appearance in his entire injury riddled career? You think that's a bad floor for Tristan, considering he just turned 23?

Yeah, I think that's a bad floor because Tristan isn't as good as Davis was yet. Even at age 23 Davis was a superior player. If Tristan makes any All-Star games I'll be shocked. I'm not making Dale Davis out to be a great player, he was a solid big man on some contenders, that's what I see Tristan's ceiling as.

 

[Nathan S]

You can't say he's head and shoulders above production wise, that's a gross overstatement. Look at their per 36 numbers from this year, when they both played the majority of games as 22-year-olds

TT: 13.2 points (47.1 FG%, 67.0 FT%, 51.7 TS%), 10.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, .5 steals, .5 blocks, 1.6 turnovers

DF: 15.4 points (51.7 FG%, 68.6 FT%, 55.7 TS%), 10.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.7 blocks, 2.2 turnovers


The only place where Favors is head and shoulders above TT production wise is on defense, and that can be explained by Favors spending roughly 2/3 of his minutes at center for the Jazz. In Tristan's rookie year, when he spent 45% of his minutes at center for us, he averaged .7 steals and 1.6 blocks per 36. The transition to full-time power forward changed his responsibilities, I don't think his shot blocking ability disappeared though.

But I do agree Favors upside is higher. That's why my approximation of TT's next contract (4/40) has been lower than what Favors got (4/49).



The contracts weren't meant to be barometers of what I see Tristan's worth as, they were meant to be examples of how stupid and unreasonable GM's can be. If someone paid millions of dollars to put together a basketball team thought Kris Humphries was worth 12 million dollars a year I can see TT getting 10.



In a perfect world TT keeps his gradual improvement going and he accepts a 4/32 after this year. Most people around here agree Tristan could develop into an above-average PF, that's how much above-average PFs get paid. If he makes it to restricted free agency, I'd have to assume he's going to get overpaid.

All good points, just to clarify though I was talking about Favors' production last season because that's how he was playing before he got his extension (i.e. he was in the same position last year that Tristan is in now). Favors obviously hasn't taken the leap like they hoped and has actually regressed in some areas this season...if they were offering him an extension today it would probably be closer to 40/4 I would think

 

[Pioneer10]

All good points, just to clarify though I was talking about Favors' production last season because that's how he was playing before he got his extension (i.e. he was in the same position last year that Tristan is in now). Favors obviously hasn't taken the leap like they hoped and has actually regressed in some areas this season...if they were offering him an extension today it would probably be closer to 40/4 I would think

Good reasons right here not to overpay for Hawes. Contact year stat inflation has to be taken into account

 

[CosmoKramer]

Dale Davis is a bad comparison. DD peaked in his 3rd season stat-wise but continued to improve as a defensive big after and eventually made the all-star game. To say that DD is TT's floor is wrong when you referenced their ppg. DD was a vastly superior rim -protector and defender compared to TT. If DD is TT's floor, then you're saying that TT is going to at least make 1 all-star game in his career and probably projecting him at 3 or 4 all-star games. I just don't see it at this time. I don't doubt his work ethic but like John Wooden used to say, you can't teach height. He's too darn mechanical and slow when he plays.

What I see him as is an Udonis Haslem type player but I think he can be a little better. He'll mean more to the our team than to another so I think other GM's will not be crazy enough to give him a big offer unless they're desperate imo.

I did not make the DD comparison, that's DWreck's perceived ceiling for TT. I didn't think Dale Davis was a great comparison in the first place, he's 3 inches taller and only played power forward for the Pacers because they needed a defensive presence along the 7'4'' offensive-minded Rik Smits. IMO Tristan clearly has a higher offensive ceiling than Dale Davis ever had, but I'd be happy if Tristan ever reached DD on defense. I've never said he'll make 3-4 all star teams, but I think it's possible for him to sneak into 1 or 2.

I like your better-Udonis Haslem comparison more, that's a much better floor for TT. If Tristan can gain that confident 18 footer we'd be seeing a rich man's Haslam, as Tristan's already a superior rebounder and defender than Haslam.

Tristan is still wildly inconsistent with the ball on the block. When he's overthinking his next move instead of reacting he looks, as others have already said, as mechanical as a robot. Other times he rushes through his footwork so fast he's completely off balance when he's finally releasing the shot. He can actually create good looks around the rim with his quickness doing this, but dear god they have no touch at all with him moving so fast. I'd like to see someone teach him and AB what a fucking dropstep looks like, it's always face and go with TT.

Yeah, I think that's a bad floor because Tristan isn't as good as Davis was yet. Even at age 23 Davis was a superior player. If Tristan makes any All-Star games I'll be shocked. I'm not making Dale Davis out to be a great player, he was a solid big man on some contenders, that's what I see Tristan's ceiling as.

Why do you keep bringing up that DD was better than him now? (again, debatable) Do you understand a player's floor is referring to his future performance, not the current level he's at? Different sport, but you like baseball and it seems like you need it spelled out for you.

Ceiling/Floor – A common scouting term used to describe a player’s upside at his peak and the bottom level of expected performance. Theoretically, the ceiling of any player is “one of the best in the game” and the floor is “out of baseball”, but used more practically, the ceiling/floor are used as realistic best case and worst case scenarios. Example: “His ceiling is a #2 starter, but if he doesn’t develop his changeup, his floor is a solid middle reliever”

http://phuturephillies.com/prospectprimer/scouting-lingo/

Considering TT is almost a 12-10 guy right now at 23, it's just useless to keep pointing at a defensive specialist whose peak season was 10-10 as TT's ceiling. That's his floor.

 

[mhi]

Thompson’s lack of improvement offensively has been terribly disappointing. He’s still struggling to make shots around the basket, still gets far too many shots blocked and isn’t as good defensively as he should be given his athleticism. The Cavs are facing a difficult decision this summer regarding Thompson, but more on that later.

http://www.ohio.com/sports/cavs/jason-lloyd-s-cavaliers-twitter-mailbag-1.473586

My guess is that they plan to offer an extension they know he will decline and let him hit RFA.

 

[Derek]

Why do you keep bringing up that DD was better than him now? (again, debatable) Do you understand a player's floor is referring to his future performance, not the current level he's at? Different sport, but you like baseball and it seems like you need it spelled out for you.


http://phuturephillies.com/prospectprimer/scouting-lingo/

Considering TT is almost a 12-10 guy right now at 23, it's just useless to keep pointing at a defensive specialist whose peak season was 10-10 as TT's ceiling. That's his floor.

Not debatable. Dale Davis was superior throughout his career to anything Tristan has shown thus far. You can point out the raw stats all you want, but Tristan is getting big minutes on a crappy team, and that skews those numbers. Davis was an efficient scorer in his opportunities, a better rebounder, and a better defender.

A player's floor is his worst case scenario. If Tristan doesn't improve at all from here on out, he won't reach DD's caliber, that's the worst case scenario. We're seeing his floor right now.

I don't use DD to compare styles of play, but rather the caliber of player I would like to see Tristan develop into. Haslem is another good example of this type of player. A valuable big on a contender getting 25 mpg is what I would like to see out of Tristan.

 

[Pioneer10]

Harlem value was in that mid range jumper. Anytime in his career where he has slumped with that shot his minutes get dropped by Miami particularly since they got Lebron. TT has never shown that ability.

Tristan is stuck in that he doesn't have range like Haslem and he isn't finishing like a Millsap inside. He's got the quickness and other attributes (offensive rebounding and ability to get to the line) to get a big contract but he's got to improve in one of those offensive areas. He's got to get out of that no man's land he's in now to truly become an offensive force.

 

[DELONTEizDad]

ive decided to disregard his hand switch as he never shoots jumpers any more. the mountie was always right handed. he is the only pf in the league that uses a rhythm dribble before going up, even if it puts him underneath the basket

I think his never shooting jumpers any more could be a symptom of his hand switch. Once he grows more comfortable doing it, it could open up his game a lot more.

(Not saying it's going to happen just that there could be some elasticity in what his ceiling appears depending on his development and comfort level with the hand switch.)

 

[CleveRocks]

Thompsons floor is better than Dale Davis. I dont think Davis is a great comparison anyway. The way I see it, Thompson's body is still in transition. He is significantly bigger stronger in each year so far, and I think that is the source of his awkwardness. When he is strong enough, I think he refocuses his training on basketball motions, and we will see him reach new levels of effectiveness.

We have talked a lot about the youngsters getting better. in fact kyries numbers have improved little, and TT's numbers have only improved convincingly in jump shot field goal percentage (ref 82 games) this year over last. I think the numbers here are a bit misleading because when I watched the last three games there was a difference in Kyries defense over last year, but it does not show in opponent PER.

Dion's numbers are up across the board and especially on defense. His opponent PER at the point guard position is below 15, and his own effective shooting percentages are up. Tyler Zeller has improved significantly on offense, thought his minutes are down. His jump shot % is up from 44 to 54 percent.

i bring this up as a counter point to my own comment. The data are not supporting significant year over year progress by TT at this point, so my expectation may be optimistic. There is room on both sides of this argument. I think a stronger bigger TT is better inside, and the fact he has avoided major injury time supports this idea. But we cant get carried away. All of the effective bigs achieve a 50% short jumper component in their game, and while TT's switch has improved it from dismal to average, it needs to make a similar jump to think he will acheive another level.

 

[CosmoKramer]

Not debatable. Dale Davis was superior throughout his career to anything Tristan has shown thus far. You can point out the raw stats all you want, but Tristan is getting big minutes on a crappy team, and that skews those numbers. Davis was an efficient scorer in his opportunities, a better rebounder, and a better defender.

Easily debatable. It's not TT's fault he got drafted to an abysmal Cleveland team while DD fell onto a perfect team for his skillset. Dale Davis played multiple seasons with a league leader in assists a game (Mark Jackson), HOF wing in Reggie Miller, another multiple time all-star in Detlef Schrempf (sidenote: loved his cameo in Parks), and played most of his career next to an all-star level offensive center in Rik Smits. Tristan's played with Kyrie (great but still improving) and a 1/2 season with Luol Deng. You don't think that explains the discrepancy between their efficiency?

And before we forget- DD broke out during his age-23 season, Tristan has yet to finish his age-22 season. Let's see Tristan play his age-23 season before calling DD the superior player.

A player's floor is his worst case scenario. If Tristan doesn't improve at all from here on out, he won't reach DD's caliber, that's the worst case scenario. We're seeing his floor right now.

Terrible assumption. He easily has room to grow multiple aspects of his game, and he's shown the work ethic needed to consistently improve incrementally. Him not improving at all is about as likely as him improving to a 20 game a night scorer, which is to say they're both highly unlikely to happen.

I don't use DD to compare styles of play, but rather the caliber of player I would like to see Tristan develop into. Haslem is another good example of this type of player. A valuable big on a contender getting 25 mpg is what I would like to see out of Tristan.

Haslam's not a bad comp. I think TT's already at the level of a valuable big getting 25 mpg on a contender (which you somehow keep pushing as his best case scenario)- look at the caliber of players in that very role- it's not exactly difficult for a player to reach this.

Brooklyn - Andray Blatche (22.3)
Charlotte - Anthony Tolliver (21.3)
Dallas - Brandon Wright (18.0), DeJuan Blair (17.0), Samuel Dalembert (19.9)
GS - Jermaine O'Neal (19.8)
Houston - Terrence Jones (27.5), Omri Casspi (18.1)
Indiana - Luis Scola (17.2)
Memphis - Kosta Koufous (17.8)
Miami - Chris Anderson (19.4)
OKC - Nick Collison (16.7), Kendrick Perkins (19.7)
Phoenix - Markieff Morris (25.9), Marcus Morris (22.4)
SA - Boris Diaw (25.2), Tiago Splitter (21.1)
Washington - Trevor Booker (21.1)

IMO none of those players are as valuable as Tristan right now. You really believe it's Tristan Thompson's best case scenario to end up playing this role? You really see no possible outcome with him developing into a starter on a playoff team?? I think by assuming Tristan's done improving you've capped his growth, thereby making your projection of his ceiling completely moot.