Tristan Thompson

[CleveRocks]

I think I would take marcus morris over TT right now. his jump shooting is 50 percent and he is playing 25 percent of the small forward minutes effectively. Markieff is very similar to TT numbers wise.

otherwise i agree with you mostly.

Blatche is a really good example of a player that made a significant jump in the middle of his career, which is unusual. Not sure what happened but his jump shot went from < 30 percent to a decent 42 percent.

 

[Derek]

Easily debatable. It's not TT's fault he got drafted to an abysmal Cleveland team while DD fell onto a perfect team for his skillset. Dale Davis played multiple seasons with a league leader in assists a game (Mark Jackson), HOF wing in Reggie Miller, another multiple time all-star in Detlef Schrempf (sidenote: loved his cameo in Parks), and played most of his career next to an all-star level offensive center in Rik Smits. Tristan's played with Kyrie (great but still improving) and a 1/2 season with Luol Deng. You don't think that explains the discrepancy between their efficiency?

And before we forget- DD broke out during his age-23 season, Tristan has yet to finish his age-22 season. Let's see Tristan play his age-23 season before calling DD the superior player.



Terrible assumption. He easily has room to grow multiple aspects of his game, and he's shown the work ethic needed to consistently improve incrementally. Him not improving at all is about as likely as him improving to a 20 game a night scorer, which is to say they're both highly unlikely to happen.



Haslam's not a bad comp. I think TT's already at the level of a valuable big getting 25 mpg on a contender (which you somehow keep pushing as his best case scenario)- look at the caliber of players in that very role- it's not exactly difficult for a player to reach this.

Brooklyn - Andray Blatche (22.3)
Charlotte - Anthony Tolliver (21.3)
Dallas - Brandon Wright (18.0), DeJuan Blair (17.0), Samuel Dalembert (19.9)
GS - Jermaine O'Neal (19.8)
Houston - Terrence Jones (27.5), Omri Casspi (18.1)
Indiana - Luis Scola (17.2)
Memphis - Kosta Koufous (17.8)
Miami - Chris Anderson (19.4)
OKC - Nick Collison (16.7), Kendrick Perkins (19.7)
Phoenix - Markieff Morris (25.9), Marcus Morris (22.4)
SA - Boris Diaw (25.2), Tiago Splitter (21.1)
Washington - Trevor Booker (21.1)

IMO none of those players are as valuable as Tristan right now. You really believe it's Tristan Thompson's best case scenario to end up playing this role? You really see no possible outcome with him developing into a starter on a playoff team?? I think by assuming Tristan's done improving you've capped his growth, thereby making your projection of his ceiling completely moot.

This is Tristan's age 23 season, not that that matters at all. DD was a solid player his rookie year as well. Tristan wouldn't be getting big minutes if this were a good team. Playing with better players isn't going to make Tristan a better finisher around the hoop.

I'm not making any assumptions. Floor=worst case, and worst case is that he's a finished product.

I never said any of those players you listed are my hope for Tristan. I have been pretty clear about the role I hope Tristan can play, and he still needs to improve in order to play that role.

 

[AustinCarr]

Tyrone Hill is a far better comparison. The main issue with a Dale Davis comparison is that a lot of what Davis provided didn't show up in the box score. Davis was just a nasty guy. Not Charles Oakley nasty, but close. The defense and intimidation that Davis provided is just not quantifiable.

Ty Hill, however was a lot more similar physically as we'll as In His game. Their per 36 at age 23 is very similar. Both lack fluidity offensively, can't shoot, are average defenders, and very good rebounders. Neither has much of a nasty edge to them. At this point I can see thompsons floor being a Hill type career arc. However, I don't see a ceiling much higher than that either. For all of his work ethic, Tristan lacks natural basketball instincts. And for as high as he can jump, he lacks explosiveness. He is a slow jumper, and that really hampers his effectiveness near the basket.

Thompson is a solid player and a good 3rd big. But I can't count him as part of the teams "core". He simply doesn't make up for the offensive awkwardness with his defense...at least not enough to make him a core player.

 

[DatDudeZ3]

Good reasons right here not to overpay for Hawes. Contact year stat inflation has to be taken into account

I don't see Hawes doing anything out of the ordinary.. He just happens to fit our team really well with Kyrie and Dion. He's getting a lot of open looks, I bet we would get the same production even if he wasn't on a contract year. His performances are very repeatable for him, he hasn't been doing anything crazy. Look at him in Philly... His numbers were worse there and he was still on a contract year...

I just see a guy who wants to win and plays with fire and heart, which we need. I hope we re-sign Hawes, fits perfect here. Sorry for talking about Hawes in a TT thread, that comment just bothered me. No offense to you Pioneer, just explaining how I feel.

 

[CosmoKramer]

This is Tristan's age 23 season, not that that matters at all. DD was a solid player his rookie year as well. Tristan wouldn't be getting big minutes if this were a good team. Playing with better players isn't going to make Tristan a better finisher around the hoop..

He entered his rookie year at 20. His second year he was 21. This third season is considered his age-22 year, he's going to play 79% of the games as a 22-year-old.

I'm not making any assumptions. Floor=worst case, and worst case is that he's a finished product..

Really? No assumptions made? From your original post from last night-

I don't see Tristan ever being more than a 10-12 points 9-10 rebounds guy in starters minutes..

Keep in mind, Tristan is averaging 12 points and 9.5 rebounds a game RIGHT NOW. Thinking he can't improve his efficiency moving forward (even though he has every year in the league) is just silly, he just turned 23! Congratulations on assuming he's reached his worst case scenario.

I never said any of those players you listed are my hope for Tristan. I have been pretty clear about the role I hope Tristan can play, and he still needs to improve in order to play that role.

Well those are the PFs and Cs on playoffs teams averaging around 20-25 minutes a night, effectively filling the role you envision Tristan at his peak. You never mentioned these players because they completely disprove your point, and why would you want to do my job for me?

 

[Derek]

He entered his rookie year at 20. His second year he was 21. This third season is considered his age-22 year, he's going to play 79% of the games as a 22-year-old.



Really? No assumptions made? From your original post from last night-



Keep in mind, Tristan is averaging 12 points and 9.5 rebounds a game RIGHT NOW. Thinking he can't improve his efficiency moving forward (even though he has every year in the league) is just silly, he just turned 23! Congratulations on assuming he's reached his worst case scenario.



Well those are the PFs and Cs on playoffs teams averaging around 20-25 minutes a night, effectively filling the role you envision Tristan at his peak. You never mentioned these players because they completely disprove your point, and why would you want to do my job for me?

If you're considering this to be Tristan's age-22 year, then DD broke out in his age-22 year.

Re-read my posts. I even said that Tristan's continued development won't result in more volume production, but it WILL result in increased efficiency, and better defense. I also believe that he will never play more minutes than he is right now.

You didn't disprove my point. You're just creating a strawman argument. I am on record giving Tristan more credit than developing into some random big man. I think he can be a valuable big man if he settles into the right role.

 

[Spencer Hawes]

He entered his rookie year at 20. His second year he was 21. This third season is considered his age-22 year, he's going to play 79% of the games as a 22-year-old.



Really? No assumptions made? From your original post from last night-



Keep in mind, Tristan is averaging 12 points and 9.5 rebounds a game RIGHT NOW. Thinking he can't improve his efficiency moving forward (even though he has every year in the league) is just silly, he just turned 23! Congratulations on assuming he's reached his worst case scenario.



Well those are the PFs and Cs on playoffs teams averaging around 20-25 minutes a night, effectively filling the role you envision Tristan at his peak. You never mentioned these players because they completely disprove your point, and why would you want to do my job for me?

There are many NBA players that have peaked stat-wise early in their careers. Dale Davis and Andre Kirilenko peaked in their 3rd year. So assuming TT is not going to improve his production after his 3rd year is not unreasonable. Of course players will become more efficient the longer they're in the league but that doesn't always translate into more production. Besides, 23 years old is relatively old for a player in this day and age. A player who spends 4 years in college comes into the NBA at 21~23 years of age and most teams avoid most of those players like the plague because they pretty much know what they're getting already.

 

[cavfanintexas]

There are many NBA players that have peaked stat-wise early in their careers. Dale Davis and Andre Kirilenko peaked in their 3rd year. So assuming TT is not going to improve his production after his 3rd year is not unreasonable. Of course players will become more efficient the longer they're in the league but that doesn't always translate into more production. Besides, 23 years old is relatively old for a player in this day and age. A player who spends 4 years in college comes into the NBA at 21~23 years of age and most teams avoid most of those players like the plague because they pretty much know what they're getting already.

I'm sure that you will agree that most do improve between age 23 - 28.

 

[Spencer Hawes]

I'm sure that you will agree that most do improve between age 23 - 28.

In what ways? Efficiency or production? Production wise OJ Mayo peaked in his rookie season and I believe he came into the league younger than TT. Production wise, Michael Beasley peaked in his 3rd year and Udonis Haslem is pretty much the same player he was in his 2nd year. I don't think improvement is a quantifiable thing unless you look purely at stats but to say that TT is only 23 years old and he's gonna improve because he's young is fine but don't take offense to people who say that he's peaked and he is what he is because there are many players in the NBA that peaked at an early age. You guys keep saying he's going to improve but to what end? We know he's a hard worker but from just watching him play, it's not unreasonable to assume from his mechanics that he is most likely not gonna take a huge step any time soon.

 

[DELONTEizDad]

In what ways? Efficiency or production? Production wise OJ Mayo peaked in his rookie season and I believe he came into the league younger than TT. Production wise, Michael Beasley peaked in his 3rd year and Udonis Haslem is pretty much the same player he was in his 2nd year. I don't think improvement is a quantifiable thing unless you look purely at stats but to say that TT is only 23 years old and he's gonna improve because he's young is fine but don't take offense to people who say that he's peaked and he is what he is because there are many players in the NBA that peaked at an early age. You guys keep saying he's going to improve but to what end? We know he's a hard worker but from just watching him play, it's not unreasonable to assume from his mechanics that he is most likely not gonna take a huge step any time soon.

I think that's a completely ridiculous statement and is completely unreasonable- he could change those mechanics and this is the first year since he switched shooting hands in the offseason!

 

[CosmoKramer]

If you're considering this to be Tristan's age-22 year, then DD broke out in his age-22 year.

Seriously DWreck, you're wrong. Admit it so we can move on, because you're talking out of your ass about their ages. DD entered the league at 22 and played 53 games of his 64 played that year as a 22-year-old rookie. His breakout came the following season as a 23-year-old second year player.

Re-read my posts. I even said that Tristan's continued development won't result in more volume production, but it WILL result in increased efficiency, and better defense. I also believe that he will never play more minutes than he is right now..

That's basically the entire part I don't agree with. You just stated TT's worst case scenario is if he's a finished product right now. In a previous post you've assumed the best you see TT doing in starters' minutes (his current role) is averaging 10-12 points and 9-10 rebounds. News flash, that's what's he's averaging right now. Even if you didn't mean to say it, you've implied TT has reached his ceiling through the context of your previous posts. And that's something I don't strongly disagree with, considering he literally just turned 23.

I don't think it's a bad thing he's handling so many minutes at this age, most young bigs can't handle playing 30+ minutes a night. Contrary to your belief, I think Tristan's going to play more minutes as he enters his prime. I see him averaging 35-36 minutes in coming seasons, be that with the Cavs or not.

You didn't disprove my point. You're just creating a strawman argument. I am on record giving Tristan more credit than developing into some random big man. I think he can be a valuable big man if he settles into the right role.

Yes you've given Tristan the credit to develop into something, and that's a "valuable 25 minute a night big on a contender." Not really saying much. I just showed the bigs playing 25 minutes on over 10+ playoff teams, that's not much of a role. If you're truly right, the Cavs aren't going to keep TT around to fill that. I still see him as the power forward of the future, and a core piece of this team. AB only has a chance to unseat him if he shows up in great shape and ready to go for next year's training camp, but I'm not comfortable declaring that a certainty by any means.

 

[Spencer Hawes]

I think that's a completely ridiculous statement and is completely unreasonable- he could change those mechanics and this is the first year since he switched shooting hands in the offseason!

What?! When I say mechanical, I'm not talking about the mechanics of his jump shot. I'm talking about just the way how he flows and move on the court. It's like watching slow motion replay and I can almost anticipate what he's going to do before he even does it lol. I'm saying that it's NOT unreasonable from just watching how he plays that it's not likely he's going to show drastic improvement and that history has shown that a lot of young players DO IN FACT PEAK AT A YOUNG AGE and 23 is really not that young in terms of basketball development. Get that through your head please.

And let me put this switching hand BS to rest. TT is obviously ambidextrous. That means he's equally adept at using both hands. You guys put him on this pedestal just because he "switched hands" and equate that to someone who is not ambidextrous who wiped his ass with his right hand for 22 years and then suddenly decides to switch to his left. TT is like a switch hitter in baseball. He can bat left of right. Most are better at one side of the plate. It just so happens that TT chose the weaker side of the plate for his shooting hand when he started playing basketball and now he realize that his right hand was probably the better one and so decided to switch. I would be more impress if he wasn't ambidextrous and switched hands.

 

[CosmoKramer]

In what ways? Efficiency or production? Production wise OJ Mayo peaked in his rookie season and I believe he came into the league younger than TT. Production wise, Michael Beasley peaked in his 3rd year and Udonis Haslem is pretty much the same player he was in his 2nd year. I don't think improvement is a quantifiable thing unless you look purely at stats but to say that TT is only 23 years old and he's gonna improve because he's young is fine but don't take offense to people who say that he's peaked and he is what he is because there are many players in the NBA that peaked at an early age. You guys keep saying he's going to improve but to what end? We know he's a hard worker but from just watching him play, it's not unreasonable to assume from his mechanics that he is most likely not gonna take a huge step any time soon.

The few players you pull up are exceptions, the vast majority of NBA players peak in their mid-to-late 20's. Tristan hasn't flashed early and failed to live up to previous levels, he's gradually improved his game every year he's been here. He's proven to be extremely durable, he's got a consecutive games started streak of 173 games. I'm not worried about his progression being filled with the ups and downs of an injury-prone player.

I would be more impress if he wasn't ambidextrous and switched hands.

It'd be completely impossible if he wasn't already ambidextrous. Switching shoots hands really is no small feat, it's never been done before at the NBA level.

 

[DELONTEizDad]

What?! When I say mechanical, I'm not talking about the mechanics of his jump shot. I'm talking about just the way how he flows and move on the court. It's like watching slow motion replay and I can almost anticipate what he's going to do before he even does it lol. I'm saying that it's NOT unreasonable from just watching how he plays that it's not likely he's going to show drastic improvement and that history has shown that a lot of young players DO IN FACT PEAK AT A YOUNG AGE and 23 is really not that young in terms of basketball development. Get that through your head please.

And let me put this switching hand BS to rest. TT is obviously ambidextrous. That means he's equally adept at using both hands. You guys put him on this pedestal just because he "switched hands" and equate that to someone who is not ambidextrous who wiped his ass with his right hand for 22 years and then suddenly decides to switch to his left. TT is like a switch hitter in baseball. He can bat left of right. Most are better at one side of the plate. It just so happens that TT chose the weaker side of the plate for his shooting hand when he started playing basketball and now he realize that his right hand was probably the better one and so decided to switch. I would be more impress if he wasn't ambidextrous and switched hands.

The fact you are desperately attempting to play down someone switching shooting hands so much makes me think you are working an agenda.

You are taking a lot of leaps in logic in this post elsewhere as well.

 

[CosmoKramer]

This is Tristan's age 23 season, not that that matters at all

I'm not making any assumptions. Floor=worst case, and worst case is that he's a finished product..

[video=youtube;Cg_8knBHEyw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cg_8knBHEyw[/video]