Once you get to that 6-14 range, it's always been a crapshoot and statistics prove it. So, yes, that's exactly how it "usually" is.
I won't dispute that. The past #8 picks don't exactly inspire confidence: Al Farouq Aminu, Jordan Hill, Joe Alexander, Brandan Wright, Rudy Gay, Channing Frye, Rafael Araujo, TJ Ford, Chris Wilcox, DeSagana Diop, Jamal Crawford, Mike Miller, Larry Hughes, Adonal Foyle, Kerry Kittles.
With this being a weaker draft than normal there's probably a 50% chance or less that the pick can become a productive player for us.
Irving isn't a great prospect? I mean, Williams is arguable because of his position questions, but Irving is a dynamite prospect that would be a top 3 pick in any of the last 5 drafts.
Great, no. Good, yes. Irving looked good when he played, but his body of work in college was very small. He's not in Chris Paul's league IMO. I didn't see enough of him in college to conclude that Irving can be the next Chris Paul.
The truth is impossible to know until three years after a draft and every single competent NBA executive will tell you the same. Draft people were having these same discussions about what has now turned out to be an absolutely awesome 2008 draft. Top heavy with two guys(Rose and Beasley) and then a crapshoot afterwards.
Agreed. However, when projecting this draft, anyone can see that it's weak at the top. There is some depth. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if a guy taken in the late 1st turns out to be a better player than a lottery pick. I wouldn't mind seeing us trade the Clippers pick, assuming it's #8 or later, for a mid to late 1st rounder this year and a future pick.