How did you come to the conclusion that it was low risk scenario when we don't really know what it is going to take to sign the kid yet and we don't know the likelihood of him being able to play?
In order to evaluate risk, you got to know what you are wagering and what the odds of a payoff are.
If Oden signs a 3 year, non-guaranteed deal near minimum salary and his happy with working hard like a 15th man to earn court time, then yes, it sounds like a low risk situation. It's a small wager. However if he would accept something like that, I think he might be on the roster already.
If Oden is holding out for a $10Mil over 3 years guaranteed contract, then there's something significant wagered by the team. Cap space is precious. There's a lot of other things that the Cavs could do with that salary space, like sign Wayne Ellington, or swing another Ellington type deal. Signing Oden could risk the team's ability to do those things.
And if the doctors & trainers say that it's a 100-1 shot that he'll be able to play meaningful minutes for a full year, it would be foolish to offer him any sort of contract. There needs to be better than a 50-50 shot to make it worth while, IMHO.
I wouldn't call it low risk until we know what it would cost to bring Oden onto the roster and had some sort of idea how likely it is that the kid will ever play. Evidence right now suggests to me that it would cost some significant money to sign him and the odds of him playing are very low, and that he might not be the greatest locker room addition. In my opinion, it's risky to sign him to any deal with guaranteed money.
