• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

Tristan Thompson

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
Cavatt said:
Cavs want a 5 year deal. Why don't they do the max without hitting the next tax level this year and renegotiate next year? There is a reason.
Click to expand...

I don't know what you're trying to say here. Do the max without the tax level? How?
 
Paul said:
Griffin and his team have plans and projections for the future, but it's a pretty complex thing and I don't know that we can expect him to have it all mapped out and planned for.

The team had some serious deficiencies and Griffin had to make trades happen to correct the deficiencies. He was therefore stuck between a rock and hard place because he probably realized that these role players he traded for would eventually want bigger money, but if he didn't make the deals then how could the Cavs compete for a title? My guess is that Gilbert just told him to get the players in and they would try and figure out how to make the payroll work later.

I also doubt that Griffin was projecting Tristan as a max contract player. Tristan turned down the 13 mil per season, but I doubt Griffin expected him to demand a max deal a year later.

So now the Cavs have a team that is good enough to win a championship, but they may need to drop a player or two in the next couple of years to make it feasible financially. It happens pretty often. Splitter was a luxury the Spurs couldn't afford. David Lee was a luxury the Warriors couldn't afford. Based on TT's connections and this perfect storm of events, it does not appear that TT is going to be the guy who gets kicked to the curb.


Assuming Tristan gets locked up long term, these are the players who would seem to be on the hot seat:

1)Mozgov
2)Andy
3)Jr
4)Delly (unless he willing to continue to play for right around the minimum)


What the Cavs value Tristan at is almost irrelevant at this point. The Cavs are more or less obliged to pay him because they can't risk losing him for nothing and they are probably unwilling to risk the fallout from LeBron if they don't keep Tristan. So, under duress, they value Tristan quite high, but in a vacuum I doubt they see him as worth much more than the 13 mil per year they offered him a year ago.
Click to expand...
I generally like what you post man, but how many times do you have to be told that the team's rim protector and defensive anchor is NOT expendable no matter what happens with Thompson? You've played this either/or game all summer with seemingly little regard for how valuable he is to the team. That's something Gilbert, Griffin, and LeBron all know and fully understand.
 
JMoneyYourHoney said:
I generally like what you post man, but how many times do you have to be told that the team's rim protector and defensive anchor is NOT expendable no matter what happens with Thompson? You've played this either/or game all summer with seemingly little regard for how valuable he is to the team. That's something Gilbert, Griffin, and LeBron all know and fully understand.
Click to expand...

--Mozgov is more important than Tristan to our team

--I agree Mozgov, or someone who can perform his duties roughly as well, is key for our defense. If Gilbert is willing to pay for both Mozgov and Tristan, more power to him.

--If an either/or situation does play out (not going to speculate on the likelihood), Thompson has a huge edge in being the one kept, not because he's better but simply because his deal comes up first and due to his ties to LeBron. I find this annoying, but it is what it is.

--I don't think an asset allocation of Love, Mozgov and Tristan all getting max or near max deals is sustainable especially when you throw in the 10 mil per season Andy gets. Something eventually will have to give, maybe it will be Andy being bought out. It could also be Love getting traded, because out of those 4 players, his contract is the only one that seems like it would be desirable to an outside team.

I love the team as it's currently built (other than the fact that we seem so damn injury-prone), but I am just not sure it's realistic to expect Gilbert to pay all these guys what they are going to want as their contracts become due.

If I've given the impression that I don't see Mozgov's value or that I don't appreciate his game, let me assure you I do. That's what makes the Tristan situation all the more frustrating. The more we end up paying Tristan, IMO the less likely it is we will be able to afford Mozgov next year (or Delly or JR). With any luck, Gilbert will pony up and pay both but it will sure be an ugly payroll structure where you may very well see 5 players earning an average of 16 million a year or more.
 
Paul said:
Griffin and his team have plans and projections for the future, but it's a pretty complex thing and I don't know that we can expect him to have it all mapped out and planned for.

The team had some serious deficiencies and Griffin had to make trades happen to correct the deficiencies. He was therefore stuck between a rock and hard place because he probably realized that these role players he traded for would eventually want bigger money, but if he didn't make the deals then how could the Cavs compete for a title? My guess is that Gilbert just told him to get the players in and they would try and figure out how to make the payroll work later.

I also doubt that Griffin was projecting Tristan as a max contract player. Tristan turned down the 13 mil per season, but I doubt Griffin expected him to demand a max deal a year later.

So now the Cavs have a team that is good enough to win a championship, but they may need to drop a player or two in the next couple of years to make it feasible financially. It happens pretty often. Splitter was a luxury the Spurs couldn't afford. David Lee was a luxury the Warriors couldn't afford. Based on TT's connections and this perfect storm of events, it does not appear that TT is going to be the guy who gets kicked to the curb.


Assuming Tristan gets locked up long term, these are the players who would seem to be on the hot seat:

1)Mozgov
2)Andy
3)Jr
4)Delly (unless he willing to continue to play for right around the minimum)


What the Cavs value Tristan at is almost irrelevant at this point. The Cavs are more or less obliged to pay him because they can't risk losing him for nothing and they are probably unwilling to risk the fallout from LeBron if they don't keep Tristan. So, under duress, they value Tristan quite high, but in a vacuum I doubt they see him as worth much more than the 13 mil per year they offered him a year ago.
Click to expand...
For about the 100,000th time, there is no relationship between what the Cavs do with Mozgov if they re-sign or don't re-sign TT.
Their intention is to keep both. They will pay whatever it takes to keep Mozgov. They invested two No. 1 picks in him. It is absurd to put him on a hot seat list. Andy is broken down junk and the other two guys are role players. Yes, those three can be replaced.
But Mozgov is a critical piece to a title contender. They will pay the tax and pay the man whatever it takes.
Geez.
 
Paul said:
If I've given the impression that I don't see Mozgov's value or that I don't appreciate his game, let me assure you I do.
Click to expand...
No, you've given the impression that the CAVS don't see his value. As was just mentioned, they parted with two No. 1 picks to get him and the results were almost immediate (of course, that was a confluence of things but Mozgov plugging the enormous hole at Center was one of the big ones.)

Thompson has no impact on Mozgov's contract. Our bill will certainly be ugly, but Gilbert took on that task when he welcomed LeBron back to town. He's committed to winning and his investments this summer prove that. He's not going to get cheap when it comes to one of the team's most integral pieces...otherwise why give Love the max, or pay TT an inflated contract to appease LeBron? We're not going to get anybody that comes close to matching Moz's production on the free market, so we're going to go above and beyond to retain him.
 
Drifter said:
For about the 100,000th time, there is no relationship between what the Cavs do with Mozgov if they re-sign or don't re-sign TT.
Their intention is to keep both. They will pay whatever it takes to keep Mozgov. They invested two No. 1 picks in him. It is absurd to put him on a hot seat list. Andy is broken down junk and the other two guys are role players. Yes, those three can be replaced.
But Mozgov is a critical piece to a title contender. They will pay the tax and pay the man whatever it takes.
Geez.
Click to expand...
A lot may depend on how much Mozgov is willing to accept in a deal (will he play below his market value) If he's offered the max by another team are you 100% certain the Cavs will match the offer?
 
Paul said:
What the Cavs value Tristan at is almost irrelevant at this point. The Cavs are more or less obliged to pay him because they can't risk losing him for nothing and they are probably unwilling to risk the fallout from LeBron if they don't keep Tristan.
Click to expand...

I see it exactly the opposite.

TT is not going to sit out the entire season. Not only would he earn nothing this year, but it would likely cause his value to drop significantly next summer as well. And I think he's a young guy who couldn't stand not to play. If he doesn't come back until January...Cavs will still be there and still have plenty of time to gear up for the playoffs. And in the meantime, TT will have no income, his value will be dropping, and he'll be watching other guys play the game he loves while he just watches.

The CBA gives the team most of the cards in a player's RFA year, and Dan has tens of millions of reasons not to give that up. Time to sit tight, and let the screws of time start squeezing that hoser and his agent.

The question isn't whether Dan can overpay TT. The question is - why the hell should he?
 
mds said:
Thank God you're here to spell it out.
Click to expand...
You are welcome. Now wait 5 minutes and start spewing " TT doesn't cost 60 million this season" all over again. I will come to your rescue again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The Human Q-Tip said:
I see it exactly the opposite.

TT is not going to sit out the entire season. Not only would he earn nothing this year, but it would likely cause his value to drop significantly next summer as well. And I think he's a young guy who couldn't stand not to play. If he doesn't come back until January...Cavs will still be there and still have plenty of time to gear up for the playoffs. And in the meantime, TT will have no income, his value will be dropping, and he'll be watching other guys play the game he loves while he just watches.

The CBA gives the team most of the cards in a player's RFA year, and Dan has tens of millions of reasons not to give that up. Time to sit tight, and let the screws of time start squeezing that hoser and his agent.

The question isn't whether Dan can overpay TT. The question is - why the hell should he?
Click to expand...
I disagree, I think overpaying TT has meaningful ripple effects. It goes beyond pride or what is fair. The more we spend on TT, the harder it will be to justify the spending on subsequent contracts. It also sets a precedent that Gilbert will pay whatever it takes no matter how unreasonable the deal, and that is a precedent that agents and players can use against him.

I may be misjudging where Gilbert's max pain is with regard to the most he's willing to pay to field a team for say the next 4 or 5 seasons. I don't see him wanting to be in that record territory of 90 million in tax, but it's quite possible he will go there and well beyond.

I guess I just hope he's more agreeable to huge spending than I think he is.
 
Paul said:
I disagree, I think overpaying TT has meaningful ripple effects. It goes beyond pride or what is fair.
Click to expand...

You kind of lost me here - I honestly don't know what you mean. Are you saying there are good ripple effects from overpaying TT?
 
Ecmic said:
Cavs revenues were around $216 million last year, I think. But even with such high revenues, their earnings before taxes, etc. couldn't have been more than $60 million (it was ~$20 million in 2014 on $150 in revenues).

Are the Cavs willing to cut their EBITDA by over two-thirds this year to overpay Thompson? Remember, there are people that have ownership stake in Cavs profits that are far less rich than Gilbert.
Click to expand...

Coming from a season ticket holder, I think you are underestimating revenues for this coming season. My tickets went up 22% from last year and they were not even premium seats. I would imagine others had increases larger than that.

If each seat averaged around a 20% increase, that's (conservatively) an additional $10 million on top of last years number. That doesn't include other ways they could ring out revenue, like even larger increases for playoff tickets. Even with those increases, the Cavs still are in the middle of the pack for average ticket prices....so they have cushion to move them higher (based on the on court product).

Additionally, season ticket holders pay for their tickets 5-6 months in advance of the season. I had to renew in March for the 2015-16 season. The franchise has an influx of cash before the year even begins, which makes it easier to swallow a contract like TT's.

Now, I'm not saying they shouldn't still push back but I doubt the hold up is merely a profit issue. The team can still leverage ticket prices to cover costs (in this upcoming playoffs and in to the future). It probably is just more of the FO having to draw the line somewhere.
 
Last edited:
The Human Q-Tip said:
You kind of lost me here - I honestly don't know what you mean. Are you saying there are good ripple effects from overpaying TT?
Click to expand...
Negative ripple effects.

I'm viewing it (and admittedly I may be on the ozone layer on this) that there's a limit to Gilbert's spending--not just a pie in the sky limit, but one that we could realistically reach in the next year or two. I'm not saying he necessarily has a set number in his head, but maybe it's somewhere near that record luxury tax area of 90 mil. It could be more or it could be less, but if you look at how careful the Cavs have been this offseason with even small stuff like JR and Mo's contracts, and shipping off Miller, it does seem to show an aversion to reckless spending. I'd just hate to see Gilbert's limit reached and it result in the loss of a player like Mozgov or Dellavedova, both of whom I think are key reasons we made it as far last year as we did.

After what has transpired thus far with TT's negotiations, it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me that Mozgov and his agent will ask for a max deal from the Cavs. I don't recall what a max deal is worth, but I think it's around 22 million per season. That's a huge cost to ask Gilbert to absorb.

The Tristan negotiations to me seem to indicate that Shump probably could have weaseled his way into a more lucrative deal as well, if he was so inclined.

Maybe I'm underestimating just how much Gilbert is willing to spend, but it may also be possible that many fans are overestimating his generosity/desire to win at all costs.
 
Last edited:
I'mWithDan said:
Coming from a season ticket holder, I think you are underestimating revenues for this coming season. My tickets went up 22% from last year and they were not even premium seats. I would imagine others had increases larger than that.

If each seat averaged around a 20% increase, that's an additional $11-12 million on top of last years number. That doesn't include other ways they could ring out revenue, like even larger increases for playoff tickets. Even with those increases, the Cavs still are in the middle of the pack for average ticket prices.

Additionally, season ticket holders pay for their tickets 5-6 months in advance of the season. I had to renew in March for the 2015-16 season. The franchise has an influx of cash before the year even begins, which makes it easier to swallow a contract like TT's.

Now, I'm not saying they shouldn't still push back but I doubt the hold up is merely a profit issue. The team can still leverage ticket prices to cover costs. It probably is just more of the FO having to draw the line somewhere.
Click to expand...

I factored increasing revenue streams (though it was just a wild guess, maybe $20-$25 million), but team payroll with a large contract to Thompson would more than offset any year over year revenue gains. Payroll and taxes would be a huge increase from 2014-15.
Overall thought though, is if Thompson is signed to a large contract, team earnings is going to go way down this year, not up. Not that it neccessarily matters. Just pointing out this team isn't gonna be printing money.
 
Last edited:
Paul said:
Maybe I'm underestimating just how much Gilbert is willing to spend, but it may also be possible that many fans are overestimating his generosity/desire to win at all costs.
Click to expand...
Look at our alternatives at the 5 and then tell me what you propose. Gilbert is too committed to NOT pay Mozgov. He put all of his chips in the middle; he can't at this point take a stack or two back and go 75% all in. He's in 100% and that means paying Mozgov.

...what I'm getting at here is that we NEED Mozgov to win, plain and simple. Everything else that Gilbert and the FO have done is for nothing if you let him walk.
 
Drifter said:
For about the 100,000th time, there is no relationship between what the Cavs do with Mozgov if they re-sign or don't re-sign TT.
Their intention is to keep both. They will pay whatever it takes to keep Mozgov. They invested two No. 1 picks in him. It is absurd to put him on a hot seat list. Andy is broken down junk and the other two guys are role players. Yes, those three can be replaced.
But Mozgov is a critical piece to a title contender. They will pay the tax and pay the man whatever it takes.
Geez.
Click to expand...

This is wrong for numerous reasons that have been detailed before.

We may not be financially able to keep Tristan and Mozgov at near-max contracts.

Please do not assert something like this as factual when many others on this board not only disagree but have good reason to.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-14: "Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:14: " Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey."
Top