I would of bet my left nut on top of a cobb salad that no way Appalachian St. would of beaten Michigan in 2007. Handfuls & handfuls of upsets have happened since then. Florida is definitely on the shitty side of the SEC, but I have seen bigger upsets than them over Alabama. It takes one game & some luck. Hey, the fucking Browns beat the Patriots 5 years back.
Even you just said, you would have to think they would jump over OSU. Their bad schedule and that horrible loss to South Carolina, who have had some awful losses, as well. I think the only way UNC makes it is if they win, Stanford/Clemson/Bama ALL lose.
Bama or Clemson loses, there is a slight hope. If that happens, + Stanford losing, I think they make it. Do I think they will make it? Probably not, because we most likely need 2 losses from top teams to get in. But it is definitely not 0% like you are making it out to be.