It's always hard for me not to chime in on posts like this. I have to think eventually we'll cover all conceivable scenarios.
We arent going to be active in free agency. We have too many key pieces that need to be resigned. Here is how our offseason will look.
1) LBJ & Love option situation. Call me crazy, but given Love's injury, and his history, I wouldnt be shocked if he worked out a new deal now. Granted its less than 5% likely that itll happen, but I could see it.
With Love, I don't think anything would surprise me. Indicators are that he will be back at least one more year though. But that's subject to change.
2) Sign TT & Shump. Both are key to our long term success. TT will get $13 mil, and Shump will get around $10 mil. I would obviously rather lock them in over them taking the QO and trying again next year. Both contracts seem like a lot now, but in 2 years, both will be around 10% of the salary cap...not even factoring in luxury tax. Well worth it in both cases.
So hard projecting what the Cavs' free agents will end up getting, but with Thompson we have a pretty good idea, and it's going to be more than 4 yrs/$52-54M. Whether it's $56M or closer to $60M (as Windy has recently suggested) remains to be seen.
The fact that Demarre Carroll and Jae Crowder are not badly hurt, may cool the market for Shump a bit. Yes, they are more 3s than 2s, but they are all known as perimeter defenders.
3) Pick up MozGods option. Hes a huge piece to our team, and we must keep him. With that being said, it would be nice to work out a new deal. If not, try again next year.
I think that in order to retain some fiscal sanity, they will need to pick up his $5M team option, and worry about 2016 when it gets here. This entails some risk that he will actually leave in 2016.
4) JR Swish will pick up his option. No reason to leave. Unless he wants a new long term deal. Either way he will get paid someday.
I guess we will just have to see, but I suspect he opts out and goes for a multiyear contract since he will be turning 30 this summer. I imagine he would be interested in re-signing if the money is right.
5) Pay Delly what anyone is willing to pay him (doubt itll be that high). We will give him the QO, but I know a fringe guy like him will take the best long term deal (expect a few mil).
See above; still hard to predict what he will get.
6) Hope Mike Miller retires. Jones & Marion are both likely gone.
I think hoping Miller walks away from $2.8M is wishful thinking.
Marion has said he will retire.
I guess we will have to see on Jones. I guess I am okay with him if he is like their 15th man.
7) Sign Perkins for cheap. Keep him as the 6th big. Muscle/Vet Presence
I am meh, at best, on Perk. Sort of like them take a chance on finding the next Whiteside or find some undervalued/under the radar younger vet. Maybe someone like Jeff Withey. Just one guy who will be a free agent.
Right there we have 7 guys, 10 with Andy, Harris, & Kyrie.
I've got them with 11: LeBron, Kyrie, Love, TT, Andy, Shump, JR, Moz, Harris, Delly, Miller.
Which leaves 4 open spots and these needs: PG, wing/combo forward, big man, maybe one more open spot (James Jones?)
Tools to fill these spots: 24th pick, Haywood contract, taxpayers MLE, minimum salary contract(s)
One thing worth keeping in mind: Griffin this year purposely kept the bottom of the roster fluid. He had a vet in Amundson on a non-guaranteed deal who was a hard worker and was, quite frankly, happy to have a job in the NBA, and it was no problem trading him. All parties knew it was just business. Then he had Alex Kirk, an undrafted free agent, again a guy Griffin had no particular problem trading. If the roster plays out the way we hope it does, Griffin may not have to worry about building in some flexibility at the bottom of the roster.
That leaves 5 spots open.
1) 1st round pick. I personally hope they trade up for Stanley Johnson or Oubre. Stanley Johnson could be Kawhi Leonard very soon. Bring them along slow for year 1, and give them big minutes in year 2. No one will fill the shoes of LBJ, but having a defense 1st wing, who can develop an offense will help the long term prosperity of this team.
If not, take a developmental C and give him sparing minutes. Dakari Johnson Baby!!!
What are you trading to move up? When San Antonio moved up back in 2011 to draft Leonard they had a young vet in George Hill who had value and was under contract on a reasonable deal. Cavs don't really have anything a team picking around 10 would want, and I personally wouldn't care to burn any assets to get a 19 year old anyway.
I think trading the pick makes some sense if they can acquire a targeted player (or two) via the Haywood contract.
2) Trade Brendan Haywood for 3 players, atleast 2 will be serviceable and fit the Marion, Miller, Jones roles. Hopefully they are younger than the aforementioned, but provide similiar skill sets, and at greater consistency. I expect Harris to slide into the Miller role.
That will leave you with:
1) James
2) Irving
3) Love
4) Thompson
5) Varejao
6) JR
7) Mozgov
8) Harris
9) Delly
10) Shumpert
11) Perkins (I fully expect him to comeback)
12) 1st rounder
13) Player acquired from Haywood trade
14) Player acquired from Haywood trade
15) Player acquired from Haywood trade/ 2nd rounder/ rookie FA
We will be active in FA, but it wont be signing new players. It will be locking ours up, and planning for soon to expire deals.
Many are assuming the Cavs will use their taxpayers MLE, but there is no guarantee they will and if they get one or two players using the Haywood contract, I tend to doubt that they will.
The big question for me is how motivated they will be to use the Haywood contract, or if at this point it is mainly viewed as insurance in case they lose Love or Smith or another one of their free agents.