If you guys have reasons why you bet what you did, please write it out if you have time. That way we all get better...
I have bets in for Clemson game going over 63 (a capper I follow likes them) on the bounce back from a pretty craptastic showing last week. They also have only 4 starters returning on defense, and 8 on offense, so basically I the idea is that they just laid an egg last week.
Returning starters here:
http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2016/FEB16/DBFeb16.html
A cool** different way to look at returning starters:
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...-experience-lsu-ohio-state-tennessee-stanford
**This had LSU as a dominant force and Tennesee as projected to be awesome too, so obviously a grain of salt.
I took Duke -6.5 against Wake on the theory that Wake sucks and can't score. They won 7-3 last week against Tulane and put up.........................................96 yards. I might have to add to this wager...
Now, here's where I am looking for a debate... Someone talk me out of betting on Tulsa today getting 28.5 points.
-OSU defense returns very few people. Sure the new guys are awesome, but this is a spread offense so it'll be a bit different.
-Tulsa returns many starters and that other website says they should be better this year too FWIW.
-OSU beat a pretty bad BGSU team.
-Tulsa beat a bowl team from a season ago in their opener. And they beat them by more points than anyone else did last year.
-Tulsa was a (bad) bowl team last year, but they did play some big boys (Houston, Okla, Memphis). Their defense sucked last year, but they did win 45-10 in their first game this year.
-OSU in a trap/look ahead situation with Okla on deck. Lots of new players, lots of hype, lots of... mistakes? We'll see, but as a bettor, this is a trap game.
-The ole "thread as proxy" technique: the game thread for the buckeye game has 2 posts as I write this. I have found that, over the years (across all sports), with no data backing this whatsoever, that when the threads are dead, the team can come out flat.
-Joe 6 pack theory: The average college kid about to wager on this game will just look at how OSU crushed last week and slap down the bet, I have to think. Therefor, I should be on the other side of that.
Ok, so somebody talk me off of these points or agree with me. Might see that spread go up too toward game-time.