2016 Presidential Race AND POLL

[Pioneer10]

Bets?

Assuming Janet Yellen doesn't pull a Bank of France during the great depression
-I think Hillary wins decisively in the general election

-Have no clue who will be the VP: interesting if she can convince Warren. Just from an ideological perspective you will have a clear difference and election with "consequences"
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-It will be either Jeb or Walker as the Republican candidate. Can't decide who'll win this but I'm favoring Walker as he has the best conservative street cred. I don't think much of him but you have to give him credit for being able to stick it to the Democrats in a bluish/purple state.

-I suspect Rubio will be the VP if Walker is the candidate to help with the Latino vote.
-not sure with Jeb, maybe Walker to secure the conservative base as he pulls a Dubya fake move to the center like in 00.
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All things being equal: all that really matter is what Yellen decides. If she goes light on the presumed interest rate hikes then hard to see Hillary not winning

 

[gourimoko]

Bets?

Assuming Janet Yellen doesn't pull a Bank of France during the great depression
-I think Hillary wins decisively in the general election
-It will be either Jeb or Walker as the Republican candidate. Can't decide who'll win this but I'm favoring Walker as he has the best conservative street cred. I don't think much of him but you have to give him credit for being able to stick it to the Democrats in a bluish/purple state.

-I suspect Rubio will be the VP if Walker is the candidate to help with the Latino vote.
-not sure with Jeb, maybe Walker to secure the conservative base as he pulls a Dubya fake move to the center like in 00.
​

All things being equal: all that really matter is what Yellen decides. If she goes light on the presumed interest rate hikes then hard to see Hillary not winning

If Jeb Bush doesn't win the primary, he will likely be the VP nominee. There's a lot of reasons for this, but primarily because no other VP candidate except Rubio has a shot at bringing Florida along with them.

Also guys it's important to note, Rubio does not help with the Latino vote, and neither does Cruz. Both guys are Cuban. The multitude of Latino races do not really intermingle with Cubans and vice versa. There is animosity between these groups.

But I generally agree with the overall point, I have Hillary winning the general in a historic landslide. I think she will likely win the same states Obama won in 2008 and maybe more if she can avoid getting dirtied during this election cycle. However, if she can't make it out of the primaries, I think Sanders would win the popular vote substantially, and win a marginal victory in the electoral college.

 

[Maximus]

Don't count out Warren...

 

[RonG]

General question to the conservatives on the board.

Why shouldn't we have universal health care if it's more cost effective and saves lives?

Why shouldn't we have completely subsidized college education if it reduces unemployment, dependency, international competitiveness, among the several dozen other life improvements that come with a collegiate education?

Why shouldn't we have a social pension program?

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Its a simple answer and you already know it. When people become politicians they instantly become irresponsible fiscally . Who wouldn't want all those nice things functioning as they should be. I mean I am sorta joking but at the same time dead serious.

 

[gourimoko]

Its a simple answer and you already know it. When people become politicians they instantly become irresponsible fiscally . Who wouldn't want all those nice things functioning as they should be. I mean I am sorta joking but at the same time dead serious.

Well, there's a lot of people who are opposed to these ideas. I think irresponsibility can be found in many areas, not just in government. Corporations aren't immune to irresponsible behavior and competition does not generally cure all ills.

 

[Pioneer10]

Its a simple answer and you already know it. When people become politicians they instantly become irresponsible fiscally . Who wouldn't want all those nice things functioning as they should be. I mean I am sorta joking but at the same time dead serious.

Doesn't seem to work in healthcare: government involvement seems to result in less money spent in healthcare with better results. Basically risk pooling is what insurance is all about the larger your risk pool increases efficiency and outcomes

http://www.amazon.com/The-Healing-America-Global-Cheaper/dp/0143118218

 

[Pioneer10]

Don't count out Warren...

She is a strong VP candidate but unless Hillary gets health problems I don't see it for POTUS. She has no campaign apparatus and in this election the power of anti-war vote throw at Hillary like Obama did is simply not there. Hard to use foreign policy as a differentiating point against the former successful secretary of state of the sitting Democratic president.

Plus the Clinton's appeal to Latinos is something other NorthEastern Democrats don't have and that is going to be critical in presidential cycle elections going forward

 

[RonG]

Well, there's a lot of people who are opposed to these ideas. I think irresponsibility can be found in many areas, not just in government. Corporations aren't immune to irresponsible behavior and competition does not generally cure all ills.

Right but we can choose not to contribute to those corporations but there is no choice on the taxes.

 

[gourimoko]

Right but we can choose not to contribute to those corporations but there is no choice on the taxes.

I get that. I think my question is regarding things that we generally consider necessities.

Education, healthcare, pensions are necessities. Shouldn't these things be negotiated and controlled by society itself?

I mean, what if you could opt-out?

So for example, Medicare-for-All but with an opt-out.. You don't want it? Okay, you get insurance on your own, but the rest of us will form a national pool. Oh wait, that means there's not enough people who don't really want federal insurance, so it kills private insurance. So in reality we have to keep people from collectively forming a national insurance program to protect private business interests..

Student loans are a profit source for many banks. Eliminating student loans would eliminate that profit. But.. corruption? Supposed corruption and inefficiency so great that we should prevent national organization of education....

Pensions... this one makes no sense. 401(k)s, IRAs, all great.. But a government-run 401(k)? Fuuck that... Why? see above..

So again, I get what you're saying about choice, but do you choose not to have health care? Do you choose not to get sick? Do you choose not get educated? In fact, education is compulsory in this country until you're of a certain age. I suppose you could choose to do without a pension, but right now Social Security is also compulsory; so again, no one really chooses to do without it these days.

So I fail to see the "choice" aspect here.

For health insurance, you could still choose the provider - what's been removed is the concept of "insurance."

For education you could still choose the school - and since just about every attends school why wouldn't this be organized at a national level.

For pension programs; Social Security already works and works very well. Why not expand on this program to accommodate more people?

Again, I just don't think the argument of "choice" really applies here.

 

[RonG]

Gour lets just talk about student loans for a minute. Do you really want me to feel sorry for people who didn't bother to read the loan details and terms? They all had a choice. My dumb ass sister in law has over 120k in student loans. Why? She went to TCU her father said take loans out and ill pay them all off when you graduate. Fast forward she graduates he throws all his money away and cant pay now. My little brother came home bragging to me that with the student loan forgiveness they were going to get rid of 80 percent or so of her debt. Poof.... gone... I was pissed and I explained it to him. Its unfortunate her father screwed her if you want to call it that, but a debt is a debt.

I have no issues with student loans but like all loans they should meet certain requirements. Just white wash away the debt because people are dumb (yes i know this is offensive) and didn't bather to understand the terms of repayment is fiscally irresponsible. They need to pay their debt and learn their lesson.

I also would have zero problem with how Germany does it but to just clean the slate on billions of debt? We can not afford to do that.

 

[Kyrieville]

I'd like to end Social Security and replace it with state-ran pensions. I bought this example up before, but state employees (in Ohio) are exempt from Social Security and pay 12% of their gross income with a 12% employee match. State employees retire after 30 or 35 years (their choice) of service. Mock this system to exempt all Ohioans from Social Security.... Even if the numbers were skewed more to favor businesses (15-16% employee contribution with a 8-9% employer match (what many already pay after 6.2% for Social Security and 401k matches).

State workers pay double what people pay into Social Security and collect ~3x of what people making the same amount collect on Social Security.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Do you have any support that free money is driving up the cost of tuition? Because I don't think the data supports that assertion.

But please, take the effort. I'll consider and respond in good faith.

I agree that government-backed loans play a role in increased tuition costs.

Demanding data to prove a point you were willing to admit doesn't fall within my definition of good faith.

The magnitude of the effect is open to reasonable debate. But disputing the fact at the outset was not.

 

[Kyrieville]

Gour lets just talk about student loans for a minute. Do you really want me to feel sorry for people who didn't bother to read the loan details and terms? They all had a choice. My dumb ass sister in law has over 120k in student loans. Why? She went to TCU her father said take loans out and ill pay them all off when you graduate. Fast forward she graduates he throws all his money away and cant pay now. My little brother came home bragging to me that with the student loan forgiveness they were going to get rid of 80 percent or so of her debt. Poof.... gone... I was pissed and I explained it to him. Its unfortunate her father screwed her if you want to call it that, but a debt is a debt.

I have no issues with student loans but like all loans they should meet certain requirements. Just white wash away the debt because people are dumb (yes i know this is offensive) and didn't bather to understand the terms of repayment is fiscally irresponsible. They need to pay their debt and learn their lesson.

I also would have zero problem with how Germany does it but to just clean the slate on billions of debt? We can not afford to do that.

There are still forgiveness plans. Public employees and those who work in a hospital with an ER get forgiveness after 10 years of paying 15% of AGI - 150% poverty level. For the rest, it is 25 years at 15% (or 20 years and 10% if you first took loans out after October 2007).

I'd like to see it changed to 10 years at 10% of NET income for everyone. Not AGI, not minus 150% poverty, not adjusted for family size... net.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I'd like to end Social Security and replace it with state-ran pensions. I bought this example up before, but state employees (in Ohio) are exempt from Social Security and pay 12% of their gross income with a 12% employee match. State employees retire after 30 or 35 years (their choice) of service. Mock this system to exempt all Ohioans from Social Security.... Even if the numbers were skewed more to favor businesses (15-16% employee contribution with a 8-9% employer match (what many already pay after 6.2% for Social Security 401k matches).

State workers pay double what people pay into Social Security and collect ~3x of what people making the same amount collect on Social Security.

Any private sector business that runs a defined benefit plan is nuts. Such businesses don't have taxpayers to bail them out (unless they're well-connected politically) if they get behind actuarily.

And if you're not talking about a defined benefit plan, them why have the state run it at all?

 

[Kyrieville]

Any private sector business that runs a defined benefit plan is nuts. Such businesses don't have taxpayers to bail them out (unless they're well-connected politically) if they get behind actuarily.

Oh, I don't want businesses running the pension plans, I want the states to run them, with the money going in it's own fund and no borrowing allowed. They could even contract the existing public pension systems to service them.