Jack Brickman
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Aug 12, 2012
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Going opponent by opponent and counting only those games you think you are likely to win is the wrong way to guess your likely win total because it ignores the reality that favorites don't always win.
If you want to go game by game, add up the percentage chance to win each of your 16 games. That's your estimated win total.
Yeah, most teams beat a couple of teams they should lose to each year and win a couple of games they should lose.
Hell, as Browns fans we should know this, because our shit teams have split with the Ravens and Steelers countless times despite being completely terrible.