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2018 RCF NFL Mock Draft

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***TRADE ALERT***


Summary:

The Chicago Bears will receive:

Pick #11 in the 2018 RCF NFL Draft
Pick #73 (3rd round) in the 2018 RCF NFL Draft
Future 2019 4th round pick for funsies which neither of us will see.


The Miami Dolphins will receive:

Pick #8 in the 2018 RCF NFL Draft
Pick #115 (4th round) in the 2018 RFC NFL Draft



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Miami Dolphins

2017 record: 6-10
Head coach: Adam Gase (3rd Year; Record 16-16)

Biggest Team Needs in Order (my take): RB, DT, LB, TE, QB, RT, OG, S, WR



The Dolphins added former Pro-Bowl G Josh Sitton this off-season, which should be a solid move with him playing on the left side. They also acquired C Daniel Kilgore from the 49ers, who is a savvy veteran leader and stout football player. Tunsil is still adjusting as an NFL tackle, but he’s shown promise. Slowly, this offensive line is moving from “ewww, gross” toward “meh, they’re alright” which should make a big difference. The RT Ja'Wuan James has been banged up on the regular, so that’s a spot to watch. That’s the key here as these Dolphins are wedged in between rebuilding and competing now in Gase’s 3rd year. They’re not a particularly young team. Nor are they a particularly strong football team. They’re right on that dreaded treadmill of mediocrity. A big ol’ bag of “blah.”

After losing Landry to Cleveland, the Dolphins were able to land Danny Amendola to man the slot. He, along with Kenny Stills and Devante Parker, make a reasonably talented receiving unit. The jury is still out on Parker. This is a “shit or get off the pot” type of year for him with Tannehill back in the lineup. Frankly, it was hard to judge any skill players with Jay Cutler slinging the rock through car windows and garage doors.

That said, they need a tight end. Badly. Their linebacking unit could use a piece. They need a running back after trading Jay Ajayi to the Super Bowl champions for peanuts.

On top of that, they cut Pouncey. They cut Suh. They still don’t have much cap room, but they’re using what they did have. Pass rush? They brought in DE Robert Quinn from the Rams to complement Cameron Wake and 2017 first rounder Charles Harris.

What about a quarterback, you say? Some will say Tannehill is "fine."

Here's the argument of the Tannehill apologists:

In back-to-back seasons in 2014 and 2015, Ryan Tannehill averaged 64% completion, 4125 yards, 25.5 TD’s, and 12 INT. This equated to a 90.7 Quarterback Rating. In 2016, his first year under Adam Gase, he went 8-5 in his 13 starts (missed 3 games in ’16 and all of ’17 due to injury). In those games, however, he had a 67% completion percentage, 2995 passing yards, 19 TD’s/12 INT, and was on his way to a 3rd "solid" year. To put this in perspective, Kirk Cousins was highly sought-after and just received 3 years, $84 million guaranteed for eerily similar production at a similar age (and that includes record).


Here's my argument:

This team needs rebuilt. Ryan Tannehill is on the wrong side of 30, has never been a winner, and is coming off 2 major knee injuries. He hasn't played a football game in 19 months and when he did, he was average. He's clearly not a "franchise" guy who elevates a team. Do you want to hitch your franchise to that? He just restructured his deal to stay in town and even he sees the writing on the wall. In my mind, he's the perfect bridge to let a young QB develop this season. In the off-season, you can deal him to a team who needs a veteran. The Broncos, Vikings, or Jets would've gladly been in that market if they had shopped him this season before free agency.

Adam Gase is faced with a dilemma in his 3rd season. He either has to win now to keep his job or rebuild and show promise in hopes that he is kept on for said rebuild. This team is further away from the playoffs than they appear, but I think they can effectively do both. I think the time is now to inject some youth into the franchise. In the meantime, Tannehill can keep you competitive this season until the young buck is ready to take you to the next level.





With the 8th selection in the 2018 RCF Mock NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select:



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Baker Mayfield, University of Oklahoma, Quarterback



Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 215 lbs
Hand Size: 9 1/4 (21st)
Age: 22.9


Workout Metrics
40-Yard Dash 4.84 (55th percentile)
Burst Score: 106.3 (31st)
Agility Score: 11.28 (72nd)
Throw Velocity: 60 mph (97th)
College QBR: 92.6 (98th)
College YPA: 11.5 (99th)
SPARQ-x: 89 (47th)


My take: This team needs a young quarterback to groom. There are too many questions about Ryan Tannehill given his age, health, and record--but the one question of "Is he a franchise quarterback?" has been answered. HE ISN'T.

Here, the Dolphins make a move up for my 3rd favorite QB in this class (behind Rosen and Darnold). That doesn't mean I don't believe in him, however. I wouldn't have done this for Josh Allen. I did it because it's Mayfield. I like him as a prospect. A shade under 6'1, but at a solidly-built 215 lbs, we aren't worried about size. He has a good live arm, great anticipation, great touch, and lethal accuracy. Some question his maturity. In south beach, we love the attitude. We love his fire. We want fans in the stands. We are dangerously close to having to give away beer with tickets like our Jacksonville brethren. But it's more than "bringing in fans" with Mayfield. Sure, he comes from a college spread, has been asked to make quick-reads, and really doesn't know many of the nuances of running pro-style concepts just yet. That said, he's a master of the concepts he's been asked to run. He's been insanely productive in a favorable offense.

We think we can build an offense around the things he does well. This is a guy who has many tools. He has quick feet and he's elusive in the pocket. He's great at throwing on the run. His accuracy is elite. His ability to extend plays is valuable. By all accounts, he's a quick learner. "He's a leader of men." We have NFL coaches. He'll learn protection packages; he'll learn the concepts. He has quick eyes. You can see it on tape. He throws with anticipation. You can see that as well.

We're not asking him to start Day 1 in Miami. That's what Tannehill is for. However, the franchise's outlook has never appeared brighter after this selection. This team was "marching a slow death." That's why we came up a couple picks to get a guy we are high on. Had I stayed at 11, I had my eyes on Roquan or Edmunds. But right now, the opportunity was there. I wasn't going to come up into the top 5 to do it. The presence of Tannehill affords the Dolphins the time to draft a QB next year if the fit isn't there this year. However, when Mayfield got past 6, the Dolphins became interested for the low price of a 3rd and 4th round pick swap and a 4th rounder in 2019.



Take via NFL.com -

Overview
Mayfield finished his career as one of the most decorated quarterbacks in college football history, topping it off by winning the Heisman Trophy, Maxwell Award, Davey O'Brien Award, and the Big 12 Championship and a spot in the 2017 College Football Playoff. Mayfield completed 70.5 percent of his passes (285-of-404), throwing 43 touchdowns against just six interceptions (also rushing for 311 yards and five scores). The Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year led the nation in pass efficiency by a large margin (setting a NCAA record that he himself set the previous year) and yards per pass attempt (11.8), and finished in the top five of pretty much every other passing category. He was an all-state pick from Texas, but his lack of size scared major college programs away. He began his college days in Lubbock, walking on at Texas Tech. In his one and only season there, Mayfield started seven of eight games played, winning Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year (218-of-340, 64.1 percent complete, 2,315 yards, 12 touchdowns, nine interceptions). Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury decided to open up the starting competition, so Mayfield left campus to find a new home. He sat out the 2014 season as a transfer student to Oklahoma (eventually, Big 12 coaches approved a rule that gave Mayfield an extra year of eligibility to make up for the lost season, as he was a walk-on that never received a scholarship offer from Tech). Finally on the field as the No. 1 starter in 2015, Mayfield became a second-team Associated Press All-American, Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting, and was a finalist for the Davey O'Brien, Manning, and Walter Camp Player of the Year Awards. He also won the Burlsworth Trophy as the nation's top player who began his career as a walk-on after completing 68.1 percent of his passes (269-of-395) for 3,700 yards and 36 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. In addition to winning Burlsworth Trophy again in 2016, Mayfield was first-team All-Big 12, finished third in Heisman voting, and was a finalist for the Maxwell and Davey O'Brien Awards after leading the FBS in passing efficiency (196.4 rating, ranked first with 70.9 completion percentage, 3,965 yards, 40 touchdowns, eight interceptions). While his completion percentage was aided by horizontal throws, his mobility helped him find secondary targets and his ability to throw passes over the top of defenses also led him to lead the FBS with 11.1 yards per attempt. Mayfield was arrested for public intoxication, disorderly conduct, and fleeing/resisting arrest in February 2017. He was not suspended for those actions, though he was required to participate in alcohol education classes and community service.



Strengths
Tough and competitive. Plays with fiery demeanor and massive chip on his shoulder. Teammates rally around him on and off field. In complete command of his offense and has improved with each season. Light on his feet with quick setup in pocket. Has good pre-snap plan. Eyeballs and eliminates safeties to isolate man coverage on his receiver. Quick processor from read to read. Responds suddenly to what is there. Pitch and catch accurate if you allow it. Underrated arm talent. Expedite from off-platform with tight release and zip. Drives with lower body for added velocity. Accurate on all three levels. Completed 53 percent of his throws of 21-plus yards over last two years. Drops touch throws over top of linebackers trailing in coverage. Has improv talent. Uses mobility to buy time to make plays. Effective when he breaks contain and will probe for explosive play. Completed 67 percent when on the move. Rises to the occasion. Posted elite production and efficiency as passer in the red-zone.

Weaknesses
Falls short of size marks for traditional early-round quarterback. Short with drop-down release makes him more susceptible to batted passes. Benefited from spread scheme that created huge passing windows to throw to. Will see increased importance on post-snap reads. Needs to improve full-field scanning. Can be thrown off rhythm by delayed blitz packages and disguised coverages. Footwork is erratic. Creeps up in pocket towards pressure. Ball placement wanes when he tries to gun it. Deep balls hang on him. Can't afford any delay in deep release to beat safety over the top. Needs to eliminate his back foot throws. Desire to make plays will lead to unnecessary sacks. Has to prove he can reign in and control on-field edge and cockiness.

Draft Projection
Round 1

NFL Comparison
Doug Flutie

Bottom Line
Spread quarterbacks have had limited success as have small quarterbacks. Mayfield falls into both categories and has to prove he can transcend those perceived deficiencies on the next level. Having complete command of the Oklahoma offense isn't an automatic precursor for NFL success, but Mayfield's ability to process, extend plays and throw with accuracy give him a good shot. He'll be somewhat scheme-dependent so whoever takes him will need to be willing to build their offense around his strengths.


The Film Room:



The Game Tape:

2017 versus The Ohio State University

2017 versus Texas Tech

2017 versus Oklahoma State University

The Foot Work:

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That's right, playas. @thestatman is MY egg account.

@Randolphkeys and the San Francisco 49ers are now on the clock.
 
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Didn't Cinci move their first round pick? Are we going to do it that way or should I consider their roster before that trade?

Want to get that clear before I pick on a few turns.
 
Didn't Cinci move their first round pick? Are we going to do it that way or should I consider their roster before that trade?

Want to get that clear before I pick on a few turns.
You'll be at #21.
 
With the ninth pick in the 2018 RCF NFL Mock Draft.

The San Francisco Forty-Niners select...

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Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State University

Height 5'10 Weight 191
40 time: 4.32
Vertical: 39 inches
Broad: 136 inches


Strengths
Supreme athletic ability. Expected to be impressive Combine tester. Can park in a deep squat under wide receiver's chin at the line. Patient from press showing no panic or hurry in initial movements. Can pedal and mirror for a long time without opening hips. Tremendously gifted footwork. Mirrors and matches with good balance throughout the route. Matches changing route speed stride for stride. Plays from low side of route to take away comebacks. Uses big burst for recovery and closeouts. Carries true long speed down the field. Reads clues from off-man. Reads slants and drives in front of the route in search of an interception. Allowed just over 32 percent completions over last two years. Ballhawk with sudden hands to attack the throw. Bats throws down and will swirl arms around the catch point to prevent target from finishing the catch.

Weaknesses
Frame is somewhat slight and he feels small in coverage at times. Lacks play strength to jam and disrupt. Appears to avoid route contact so he doesn't upset coverage balance. Physical receivers can body him around at the top of the route. Needs to turn and find football sooner with back to the ball. Always around the throw, but lack of size and length shows up with "just misses" in pass defense. Several pass breakups came on throws with poor placement. Coverage benefitted from deep, talented rush unit up front. Has issues disengaging from big blocking receivers. Big backs drag him for a ride in run support.

Why?

The Niners have a few holes on both sides of the ball. They have spent the last three first round picks on constructing the defensive line from the PAC 12 with some hits - like Arik Armstead - and some other mixed results elsewhere. Ahkello Witherspoon looked bad the first half of his rookie year, playable the second half. After signing Richard Sherman, one cornerback position has a plan but I don't know if he can be trusted to play a full season at full speed. The Niners ended their season in need of a full cornerback overhaul around Witherspoon, so a true shutdown corner opposite the aging veteran with an iffy wheel is ideal.

The Oakland Raiders and @Phills14 are on the clock!
 
We have a trade.

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*The Tennessee Titans have traded their 2018 first-round pick (25th overall) to the New York Giants for 2-time pro-bowler, DE Jason Pierre-Paul.*





With this move, the Titans address their biggest need, and make it clear to the fanbase that they are ready to contend for a super bowl right now.








Giants reasoning: The Giants want Rosen and Obj to be the future of the team. Having such a highly paid defense didn't help win many games last year. By freeing up cap space with this trade, the Giants hope to be able to sign Obj to a long term contract. JPP according to PFF (and my co-worker who's a Giants fan) was just average this year and made a lot of money. By getting a first round pick back, the Gmen can address some weaknesses with cheaper talent.
 
Giants reasoning: The Giants want Rosen and Obj to be the future of the team. Having such a highly paid defense didn't help win many games last year. By freeing up cap space with this trade, the Giants hope to be able to sign Obj to a long term contract. JPP according to PFF (and my co-worker who's a Giants fan) was just average this year and made a lot of money. By getting a first round pick back, the Gmen can address some weaknesses with cheaper talent.
That might be a worse trade than the one the Jets really made.
 
Wait, you haters are hating this on Tennessee’s end, right?

I think getting a first round pick in this deal is an absolute steal for New York.

JPP still has a lot of guaranteed money on his deal and many considered him untradeable.

Not only did they get someone to take him, they get a first for an aging DE who has never been the same since his injury?

Yeah, you moved heaven and earth as far as I’m concerned.

It’s not that I hate the move for Tennessee in terms of the actual player/fit. Clearly the two franchises are in different spots. I just think New York would gladly ship him off for a late rounder if a team had interest.
 
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With the 10th pick in the 2018 RCF Mock Draft the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders selected...

  • Roquan Smith, LB Georgia
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http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/roquan-smith?id=2559899

Overview
One of the top high school recruits in the country (top 30 overall, second-ranked linebacker), Smith stayed in his home state of Georgia to play football after being named the Class AA Defensive Player of the Year by the Atlanta Journal-Sentinel as a senior. He played as a reserve his true freshman season (20 tackles, four for loss) before becoming a defensive leader in 2016. Smith played in all 13 games, starting 10, and leading the Bulldogs with 95 tackles (five for loss, one pass breakup).

ANALYSIS
P

STRENGTHS
Former high school wideout with elite athletic ability. Speed demon who walks down backs looking to race him to the corner. Fluid and explosive in space. Block-slipper. Praised by his head coach as being a "tremendous leader" who holds himself accountable. Has instincts and football intelligence. Laser-sharp focus to finds the football when sifting through zone reads and jet sweeps. Plays with discipline. Senses when running backs are prepping for screen and fires downhill to stop it. Face-up tackler who sticks his nose in noise. Rare stop-start and change of direction talent. Flips pursuit from one target to the next seamlessly. Gets early bail into coverage against play-fake. Able to mirror and match against the most athletic running backs in coverage. Gets early jumps to join crossing routes and has the speed to carry them across the field. Searches out and squeezes receivers when playing zone.

WEAKNESSES
Is a little undersized. Has to stay one step ahead of the blocking scheme or he can be engulfed by size. Will need to diagnose and trigger just a hair faster on the next level. Occasionally comes in hot rather than breaking down in space as a tackler. Will need more schooling on hand work when taking on blocks. Needs to do a better job of recognizing oncoming blocker in his periphery. Gets touched up by second level traffic and needs to continue to improve finding more efficient routes to the ball.

DRAFT PROJECTION
Round 1

SOURCES TELL US
"Great player. Really fun to watch because he can get to just about any play on the field and he's only going to get better. You would love to play him inside but he may have to slide to WILL." -- AFC team personnel director

NFL COMPARISON
Deion Jones

BOTTOM LINE

Smith is an ascending linebacker prospect with elite athletic ability, plus intelligence and an ability to be an effective cover linebacker on passing downs. While he's a little undersized, he does have the quickness and speed to keep himself from being mauled. He was good in 2016, but great in 2017 and projects as a player who hasn't tapped his full potential. Smith has Pro Bowl traits and talent and will come off the board in the first round.



Why for the Raiders

Smith is a sideline to sideline LB that the Raiders desperately need. NaVorro Bowman is not the player he once was and is entering his 10th season in the league. Roquan will slide right into the MIKE Linebacker role and control the center of the defense while Khalil Mack and Mario Edwards come off the edge. It was a close call between Smith and Tremaine Edmunds who remains on the board, however; Smith not only is a great player but he fits a need. Edwards is a great player but doesn’t necessarily fill a need at this point.

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This takes me back to when I traded my 1st and Davante Adams last year for Leonard Floyd and a 4th and people raised similar hell.:chuckle:

Call me the Ted Stepien of RCF mock drafts if you want, but this is what I do. I trade firsts for pass rushers.

I remember watching JPP last year and being impressed. I think he would definitely help Tennessee.

But yeah, I'm starting to feel that tingle of regret in the back of my throat. I don't know, it sounded good in my head this morning.
 
This takes me back to when I traded my 1st and Davante Adams last year for Leonard Floyd and a 4th and people raised similar hell.:chuckle:

Call me the Ted Stepien of RCF mock drafts if you want, but this is what I do. I trade firsts for pass rushers.

I remember watching JPP last year and being impressed. I think he would definitely help Tennessee.

But yeah, I'm starting to feel that tingle of regret in the back of my throat. I don't know, it sounded good in my head this morning.

It’s not that he isn’t a good fit with Tennessee. I like him on your roster a lot. It’s what you gave up for him considering New York would basically beg someone to take him.

See below:

-via NJ.com

Now? Reese has been fired, the Giants are one of the league's worst teams and Pierre-Paul has been stunningly underwhelming. Sunday's outing - two tackles, one assist, no sacks, no quarterback hits and one illegal hands to the face penalty - is his latest barely-there performance this fall. It will only amplify those who say the Giants made a major mistake giving him all that money.

Like with most things involving the Giants in 2017, Pierre-Paul's situation is a complicated one.

The Giants are not going to cut him this offseason. Nor will they be able to trade him. Pierre-Paul has at least $18.75 million in guaranteed and set-to-be guaranteed money still coming his way, according to Spotrac, and a deal the Giants have little choice but to stick with for at least one more season. There are salary cap tricks the Giants could work - a post-June 1 release would split the immense $22.75 million dead cap hit over two years, for example - but they aren't worth the hassle given the meager 2018 cap savings.

The accusation Pierre-Paul has taken the money and run feels a bit hollow as well. Have you ever heard of a player signing a big deal, diligently showing up to the offseason program and training non-stop, dominating training camp and the preseason, then deciding he wants to mail it in once the regular season begins? It's a production issue with Pierre-Paul, and it's a layered one.
 

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