I made a thread about this on Twitter, but in case people are curious (just humor me), the analytics models are actually uniformly picking the Browns to finish between 16th-18th in the NFL this year. I want to explain why.
(sorry for hijacking this thread,
@Juice Is Loose, loved the Myles article).
1) Uncertainty about the head coach. Kitchens is a new HC, and new HCs tend to be unstable. My guess is that most models have Freddie making a negative impact (a neutral impact would be league average/team's schedule). Even more, I imagine those models have Freddie adding anywhere from half-to-one extra losses.
2) Baker Mayfield is going into his second year. This combines with the fact that his play under Hue was pretty underwhelming. Consequently, models viewed Baker as a league average QB last year, and project slight improvement. Expected points added models have Baker as a +2.5 win QB. Mahomes is a +5 and highest in the NFL.
3) Lots of roster overhaul adds even more instability. The Browns have eight new starters, five new additional rotation players, and unknown philosophies on both sides of the ball.
4) The offensive line is predicted to be significantly below average. Historically, the team only has one elite linemen and two average starters. Robinson is a big question mark and Kush is not that good.
5) The depth at a lot of positions just are not all that great. QB, WR, all offensive line positions, and all defensive line positions will be much worse in case of injury.
6) The Browns were 7-8-1 last season, 5-3 after Hue got fired, and only got one win against a playoff team. They played .500 football all year. The biggest positions they added this year are at receiver and secondary pass rusher - two positions reliant on other factors.
7) Compounding all of this is that the Browns play two games against the Ravens - who are another team with very similar problems - and the Steelers - who are actually a really reliable eight-to-ten win pick. The schedule may look easy, but it is actually pretty unpredictable.
I think this leads to two valuable pieces of information:
First, the best models we have still do not perform greatly at incorporating context. ELO models view the Browns as a slightly below .500 team, with lots of overhaul, whose QB will add about one more win than their total last season. They cannot incorporate how the players feel about Freddie, if they know his offense, how good Baker looked under Freddie, etc.
Second, with all of that said, the models do identify uncertainty with this Browns team. Incorporating new players is
difficult, no matter the coach. Injuries are unpredictable and the Browns will be impacted more than most by such events. Overall, if you are risk averse, the Browns probably are not a team you want to root for.
Still, I think the models are underrating the Browns by about thirty total net points (which roughly equates to one win). My guess is the Browns go 9-7 and make the playoffs. If they avoid injuries, though, the sky is the limit.