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2019 Mock Drafts

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AZ_ said:
I’ll take Hockenson 10 times out of 10 over any offensive skill player at 17.

I think he’s an elite elite talent.

A more athletic version of Jason Witten.
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So perhaps i was right when I said him lasting to the third round was a pipe dream when people were mocking him there and he would by long gone by round 2 a few weeks ago? He will be a top 25 pick unless something horrid happens. He may not even make to 20.
 
sportscoach said:
How much do you think this will effect his draft stock? I am not familiar with all that happened, but Dorsey hasn’t been afraid to draft anyone with a past issue, but not usually in the first round
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Oh you can’t draft this guy in the first half of the draft. GM sepoku. It’s unfortunate for the young man. Bad decision maker. People don’t change. Heard his agent was leaving him.
 
natedagg said:
Oh you can’t draft this guy in the first half of the draft. GM sepoku. It’s unfortunate for the young man. Bad decision maker. People don’t change. Heard his agent was leaving him.
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Though on day 2, he should be fair game. I mean we drafted Brantley and Callaway the last couple years even though they had stuff against them. If we can get a guy like his talent on day two I don’t think anyone here would have an issue giving him a chance if the interviews go well
 
sportscoach said:
Though on day 2, he should be fair game. I mean we drafted Brantley and Callaway the last couple years even though they had stuff against them. If we can get a guy like his talent on day two I don’t think anyone here would have an issue giving him a chance if the interviews go well
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Bro. This all went way over your head. DO YOUR JOB.
 
The Human Q-Tip said:
Agree that we could really use help at linebacker. We fall apart defensively when Schobert isn't in the game, and could really use a fast LB.

But does experience really even matter all that much on the DL? It may be the most simple/least complicated position group on the team to learn.
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Statistically, interior defensive line has the lowest first round bust rate. It’s a really straightforward transition for players that dominated in college.
 
If you had to guess, what's the likelihood Devin White makes it to #17? 30%?
 
ajz20 said:
So perhaps i was right when I said him lasting to the third round was a pipe dream when people were mocking him there and he would by long gone by round 2 a few weeks ago? He will be a top 25 pick unless something horrid happens. He may not even make to 20.
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Fascinating
 
jking948 said:
Statistically, interior defensive line has the lowest first round bust rate. It’s a really straightforward transition for players that dominated in college.
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There was a new poster in here who came in and left not very long thereafter due to incessant flaming by us. This poster said that Danny Shelton would bust-out because he was so poor with lateral movement. He was laughed out of here.

Oops.
 
Soda said:
There was a new poster in here who came in and left not very long thereafter due to incessant flaming by us. This poster said that Danny Shelton would bust-out because he was so poor with lateral movement. He was laughed out of here.

Oops.
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I mean, again, it is not a law. Interior defensive just happen to turn into solid NFL starters and bust at a much lower rate compared to other positions.

https://www.catscratchreader.com/2016/4/28/11522748/an-analytic-look-at-first-round-success

For this article, I reviewed every first round selection in the NFL Draft from 2010 through 2014 in order to evaluate how often first round picks succeed and what positions tend to be safer as first round selection. Five years should be an adequate sample size, and l chose to omit the 2015 draft class because it is unfair to judge a prospect after just one season. Every first round selection was graded on a simple 1 - 5 scale. Relative draft position, quality of players selected afterward, and team fit were all taken into consideration.

  • 5 - Pro Bowl quality talent.
  • 4 - Good to great selection.
  • 3 - Over drafted or undecided.
  • 2 - Bad value, pretty much a bust
  • 1 - Total bust, usually no longer on the team
160 total prospects were reviewed and the numbers have been crunched. The analysis revealed a series of interesting trends from recent draft history. As a small sample size of just five years, we can't draw any concrete takeaways from this, but it certainly provides an enlightened perspective on the NFL draft. Here are some interesting numbers the study revealed, followed by the positional rankings from riskiest to safest in the first round.

  • The average grade given to 160 players was a 3.3
  • 86 players were considered probowl talent and worthy of a first round selection
  • 30 players were okay, but over drafted
  • 44 players were considered busts
  • Of 73 offensive players, 23 of them were busts, 32%
  • Of 87 defensive players, only 21 of them were busts, 24%
  • On average there are 17 great players, 6 players that are okay but over drafted, and 9 total busts each year in the first round of the NFL draft.
Unranked - Centers - 3 Players Selected - No Busts - Perfect 5.0 Grade
I hate to start off like this but with most mathematic studies, there was an "outlier". Something unusual that just doesn't fit and Centers didn't quite fit into the equation. Over the last 160 first round selections, there have only been 3 centers. The Pouncey brothers and Travis Frederick. All three earned a five as all three are Probowl talents and taken outside of the top 10. This does show how hard it is to find a good center as they are so rarely taken early.

11th - Running Backs - 7 Players Selected - 3 Busts - 2.1 Average
Jahvid Best, Trent Richardson, David Wilson, Mark Ingram, CJ Spiller, Doug Martin, Ryan Matthews.... Only five 1,000 yard seasons between the seven of them. None of them were really worth a first round pick. Recently I've come around to the idea of drafting Derrick Henry in the first, but history is not on his side.

10th - Quarterbacks - 14 Players Selected - 7 Busts - 2.8 Average
Of course, the most important position in football is hard to fill. Even in the first round it's literally only a 50% chance of finding a quality quarterback. This is why teams are willing to trade so much to get that top selection, in the last five years only seven good QBs have gone in the first. If you don't pick that one good QB per year, you probably won't get one. Cam Newton earned a solid 5 of course.

9th - Guards - 8 Players Selected - 3 Busts - 3.1 Average
This one surprised me. I didn't know guards go in the first this often and I assumed they were one of the safer picks. Jonathan Coopers injury and the crazy selection of Danny Watkins in the first really dragged the position down.

8th - Defensive Ends - 17 Player Selected - 6 Busts - 3.2 Average
There is a reason defensive ends are the highest paid position on defense. Not only are they very important, they are the hardest defensive position to find. For a variety of reasons from being too light, to not fitting schemes or not staying healthy, it's been hard to find good defensive ends recently.

7th - Cornerback - 20 Player Selected - 5 Busts - 3.3 Average
The next highest paid defensive position, it almost makes sense! Not much to say here, corners are really hit and miss recently. Dee Milllner, DJ Hayden and Morris Claiborne are all top 10 selections and total failures in recent years. There are also a number of corners that have gone later in the first who are extremely talented such as Trufant or Robey.

6th - Tight Ends - 3 Players Selected - 1 Bust - 3.3 Average
Tight ends are not often selected in the first round and placed right in the middle of the position groups with an average score of 3.3. Only three have gone in the first round in recent years and two to the same team. One great player in Tyler Eifret, one okay player in Jermaine Gresham, and a bust in Eric Ebron. When an average player goes in the top 10 before OBJ or Donald Penn, that's considered a busted pick.

5th - Safeties - 11 Players Selected - 2 Busts - 3.4 Average
Safeties actually have the lowest bust rate of any position at only 18%. Unfortunately, they aren't often the Probowl talent or real difference makers. Most of the recently drafted first round safeties are players who contribute and are starters but aren't stars. Deone Bucannon, Calvin Pryor, and Eric Read are examples of guys who are good players but aren't Probowl and first round quality players.

4th - Offensive Tackle - 21 Players Selected - 5 Busts - 3.5 Average
I thought offensive tackles would be higher in the rankings and were one of the safest positions in the first round. The fact of the matter is there are a handful of busts at the position and a lot of over drafted players like Luke Joeckel and Jake Fisher. They both earned a 3 because they are decent starters, but certainly not worth first and second overall selections. Offensive tackles are on the safer side, but still are a bust nearly 20% of the time.

3rd - Linebackers - 20 Players Selected - 5 Busts - 3.5 Average
Going into this I has estimated that linebackers would be the safest position and they are. The only reason why linebackers come in third is because four of the five busts were defensive ends converted to outside linebackers like Nick Perry or Marcus Smith. If you draft a pure linebacker in the first round, he's almost guaranteed to be a Probowl talent. A good sign for Shaq Thompson's future with the team. If anything this shows that converting college ends to outside linebacker is a difficult transition, with nearly 50% of those guys failing. One of many reasons I prefer a 4 - 3 over a 3 - 4, the personnel are usually easier to find.

2nd - Wide Receivers - 17 Players Selected - 4 Busts - 3.7 Average
This one is a little unfair with the recent success of the position. The 2014 draft class may go down as the best in history for the position and throws off the scale with five players averaging a 4.8. The 2016 draft class of receivers is much less promising than the last two years and more in line with long-term history. Wide receivers are actually a bit of a risky pick and the farther back you go, the more often you see busts. In recent history however, it's been very easy to find good receivers.

1st - Defensive Tackle - 19 Players - 4 Busts - 3.8 Average
Isn't this a pleasant surprise. Much to Dave Gettleman's delight, defensive tackles have been the safest position in the draft the last five years. With the 2nd smallest percentage of busts and the most Probowl talent to speak off, the defensive tackle position has seen an infusion of talent in recent years. With all of the analysts raving about the depth of this defensive class, this group of tackles appears to be continuing the trend. Recently, a widely perceived story around the NFL is that offensive line play is down. The truth may be that defensive line play is just that much better than it was just a couple seasons ago and it makes offensive linemen look bad. Even though the Panthers are stacked at the position, don't be surprised if Dave selects another defensive tackle early in the 2016 class.

There you have it. An in-depth look by position at the first round of the NFL Draft. Hopefully, this article made you a little bit more informed and provide a better understanding of the draft. It is a little surprising that only 54% of players selected in the first round ever live up to expectations. 31 player are going to be drafted tonight, and in all likelihood only half of them are going to be the players their team expects them to be. Hopefully, this also gives you a little more appreciation for Panther General Manager Dave Gettleman, who has done an excellent job drafting the past three season. I look forward to tonight to see who he adds to the team this year.

Fun Fact
Despite the fact that I truly tried to do this completely objectively, the Carolina Panthers were the only team to have a perfect first round grade of 5.0. The team had no first round selection in 2010, then followed up with Cam, Luke, Star and KB in four straight years.
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sportscoach said:
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I can't believe this is someone's job. When I started getting in to football in my teens, who knew I could possibly just make fake drafts for a living. I really missed the boat here.

Also, I'll save everyone a ton of time. They seem to just skip over the Browns slot of picks (16-19)......for no apparent reason.
 
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From Matt Miller's Feb. 4th update:

The Pick: Yodny Cajuste, OT, West Virginia

A run on offensive tackles continues as Yodny Cajuste goes to Cleveland as the team's new left tackle.

The Browns limped by with Greg Robinson as a Band-Aid at the position after Joe Thomas retired last offseason; and while Robinson did solid work, he's not the team's answer for the future.

Cajuste is a top-tier athlete at left tackle, showing excellent footwork combined with good length and strength to handle power and speed rushers. He's a bit raw in the run game but has the traits to be fine there with some coaching by a pro staff.

Finding a long-term answer at left tackle with the No. 17 overall pick is rare, which is why the Browns would jump all over Cajuste if available here.

_____________________________________________________

I have seen Yodney Cajuste all over the place in mock drafts. What I can gather is that draftniks really weren't following him closely in the preseason. West Virginia hired a dynamic new head coach, won more games with an explosive offense, then people start paying attention. Another factor is that Cajuste was inconsistent in 2017 but his technique became more consistent in 2018. He is a violent player who relishes the run game. He reminds me of a right tackle who had been playing on the left side his whole career. This isn't the reach it would have felt like three months ago.

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RD 2
Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia

RD 3
Kendall Sheffield, CB, Ohio State
Terrill Hanks, LB, New Mexico State

RD 4
Isaiah Buggs, DL, Alabama

RD 5
Chris Lindstrom, OG, Boston College
Marvel Tell III, S, USC
Porter Gustin, EDGE, USC

RD 6
KeeSean Johnson, WR, Fresno State

RD 7
Cece Jefferson, EDGE, Florida
Donald Parham, TE, Stetson
 
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