2019 NBA Draft

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

As much I love Zion and RJ, they don't even come close.

We really suck though lol.

 

[Lee]

Zion is like Charles Barkley and Draymond Green having a baby.

I don't think he can play center much, but for sure he is a pf in the NBA and will be dominate in the new NBA for years to come.

 

[Derek]

We really suck though lol.

We do, but even if Zion, RJ, and Cam are great rookies, that’s not enough to carry the rest of the roster.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I think what you're missing is that Zion played only 23 minutes. On a per-minute basis, he attempted more field goals and more free throws than Trae Young did last season. When he was on the court, he was playing like a #1 option and then some, and he was doing it with ridiculous efficiency. It's just one game, of course, and it's silly to make a comparison based on just one game. But by an reasonable measure, Zion was the more impressive player last night.

I'm not arguing his efficiency, it is what it is.....I'm arguing that he's not scoring in ways that are sustainable, at volume, at the NBA level. He's not going to just get straight line driving lanes and when he was cut off last night, he had no counter. That is what he needs for me to believe he can sustain as a #1 option at the NBA level.

I'd imagine Zion will be really successful if he just gets to drive straight to the basket and use his athleticism to finish.....but that isn't the reality of what NBA life will be like for him. He needs a hop step, euro step, step back, floater......anything to keep the defense from smothering his driving lane with help or a defender forcing him to change directions. He has a great first step, near electric but at the NBA level, you have to have something else.

Certainly, his offensive potential is unlocked at the next level with hunting teams in to P&R switches, I just want to see more creativity with the ball to be confident he can assume that role against more athletic and more talented defenders.

Most intriguing for me about Williamson, which most people gloss over is he does seem to have great basketball feel.....which is very rare for the uber athletic players. He understands positioning, both body and court and he can sense for where he should be on a certain play / situation. That's not a sexy thing to watch and observe but it does certainly help separate him from the pack, when assessing previously players like him.

 

[Nathan S]

I'm not arguing his efficiency, it is what it is.....I'm arguing that he's not scoring in ways that are sustainable, at volume, at the NBA level. He's not going to just get straight line driving lanes and when he was cut off last night, he had no counter. That is what he needs for me to believe he can sustain as a #1 option at the NBA level.

I'd imagine Zion will be really successful if he just gets to drive straight to the basket and use his athleticism to finish.....but that isn't the reality of what NBA life will be like for him. He needs a hop step, euro step, step back, floater......anything to keep the defense from smothering his driving lane with help or a defender forcing him to change directions. He has a great first step, near electric but at the NBA level, you have to have something else.

Certainly, his offensive potential is unlocked at the next level with hunting teams in to P&R switches, I just want to see more creativity with the ball to be confident he can assume that role against more athletic and more talented defenders.

Most intriguing for me about Williamson, which most people gloss over is he does seem to have great basketball feel.....which is very rare for the uber athletic players. He understands positioning, both body and court and he can sense for where he should be on a certain play / situation. That's not a sexy thing to watch and observe but it does certainly help separate him from the pack, when assessing previously players like him.

It's important to consider a player's likely position when talking about his skillset.

For instance, Jokic isn't particularly skilled with the ball compared to the typical NBA team's primary offensive initiator, which is usually a point guard or occasionally a wing. But he's overwhelmingly skilled compared to other centers, which makes him a game-changing offensive mismatch.

Zion's potentially in the same boat. At PG, SG, or SF, his ballhandling ability and first step would be nothing special. But at PF or C, they're potentially devastating. Just a few months after his 18th birthday, he already has offensive skills that many NBA bigs could only dream of. If he continues to develop those skills, he'll be impossible for most bigs to defend.

 

[I'mWithDan]

It's important to consider a player's likely position when talking about his skillset.

For instance, Jokic isn't particularly skilled with the ball compared to the typical NBA team's primary offensive initiator, which is usually a point guard or occasionally a wing. But he's overwhelmingly skilled compared to other centers, which makes him a game-changing offensive mismatch.

Zion's potentially in the same boat. At PG, SG, or SF, his ballhandling ability and first step would be nothing special. But at PF or C, they're potentially devastating. Just a few months after his 18th birthday, he already has offensive skills that many NBA bigs could only dream of. If he continues to develop those skills, he'll be impossible for most bigs to defend.

But Jokic is also a good mid range and long distance (NBA range) shooter. Shooting is the great equalizer for big men with offensive skills. As it presses centers and PF's out beyond their comfort zone and it makes average ball handling better.

He is certainly a good passer, so that will help but my two concerns with him are that 1. he doesn't have 2-3 really good NBA change of direction moves off the dribble 2. I think he is not going to be an above average NBA shooter from 3. Those two together are compounding. If you are a good shooter, shot fake, put the ball down can be the only move you need. Without that, you need dribbling counters.

Is Williamson capable of shooting 37-38% from 3 on 3+ attempts a game? If he's not, can he be as effective initiating offense? Draymond's tailing off has directly coincided with his jump-shot disappearing. Zion is more athletic than Draymond (understatement) but you aren't worried there's a similar blueprint there in important games against elite NBA competition?

If Zion takes and makes 3, then certainly the calculus changes on him.....because I think he can really punish bigger players who have to over extend but it's really hard to playmake over much bigger guys at the NBA level. If you can sag off with arms extended, and clog some of those passing lanes, it becomes really hard, even for a good passer....much like it has for Dray. When he was hitting 33, 34, 39 % from 3 as he got better, it was impossible to guard him. As his percentages have nose dived, he's become a very ordinary player from an efficiency standpoint.

 

[Nathan S]

But Jokic is also a good mid range and long distance (NBA range) shooter. Shooting is the great equalizer for big men with offensive skills. As it presses centers and PF's out beyond their comfort zone and it makes average ball handling better.

He is certainly a good passer, so that will help but my two concerns with him are that 1. he doesn't have 2-3 really good NBA change of direction moves off the dribble 2. I think he is not going to be an above average NBA shooter from 3. Those two together are compounding. If you are a good shooter, shot fake, put the ball down can be the only move you need. Without that, you need dribbling counters.

Is Williamson capable of shooting 37-38% from 3 on 3+ attempts a game? If he's not, can he be as effective initiating offense? Draymond's tailing off has directly coincided with his jump-shot disappearing. Zion is more athletic than Draymond (understatement) but you aren't worried there's a similar blueprint there in important games against elite NBA competition?

If Zion takes and makes 3, then certainly the calculus changes on him.....because I think he can really punish bigger players who have to over extend but it's really hard to playmake over much bigger guys at the NBA level. If you can sag off with arms extended, and clog some of those passing lanes, it becomes really hard, even for a good passer....much like it has for Dray. When he was hitting 33, 34, 39 % from 3 as he got better, it was impossible to guard him. As his percentages have nose dived, he's become a very ordinary player from an efficiency standpoint.

I should've been more clear in my original post...the only way Zion's similar to Jokic and Draymond is that he has elite offensive skills for a big man. For Jokic (and to a lesser extent Draymond) those skills are shooting and passing ability. For Zion, it's his ballhandling ability and first step. How many players his size have that combination of straight-line quickness and ballhandling ability? Not many...normally scouts get excited if an 18-year-old big shows even a momentary flash of ballhandling in the open court, or has the audacity to even try driving past a defender from the 3-point line. Zion, of course, already does both of those things with ease. If he adds the passing and shooting skills of Jokic on top of his current skill set (I don't think he will), he'll be in line for multiple MVPs. Even without that, though, he should be a sure-fire All Star as long as he's good enough defensively to play in the frontcourt.

 

[Nathan S]

Unrelatedly, I reminded myself of the BPM formula and solved the RJ Barrett mystery. His OBPM is low because the stat looks at a player's scoring efficiency relative to the rest of his team. This is a somewhat questionable approach that punishes players on efficient offensive teams, and helps players on inefficient offensive teams. Through one game, Duke has been quite efficient offensively, to put it mildly. So OBPM sees RJ Barrett dragging down his team's efficiency with his 55% true shooting, and holds that against him.

EDIT: to clarify,

Raw BPM = a*ReMPG + b*ORB% + c*DRB% + d*STL% + e*BLK% + f*AST% - g*USG%*TO% +
h*USG%*(1-TO%)*[2*(TS% - TmTS%) + i*AST% + j*(3PAr - Lg3PAr) - k] + l*sqrt(AST%*TRB%)


The bolded term is a large negative number for RJ, because his TS% is about 10 points lower than his team's TS%. That's at the root of his negative OBPM.

 

[Muffinalt]

You guys watch any of their behind the scenes? Such an awesome group, with that unique Fab Five vibe. Been binging the whole day.

(Sexton shoutout at 6.10)

Im really liking their characters so far as well, or at least what I made of them after watching a lot of interviews and interactions.

Barrett looks like a alpha's alpha, overtaking conversations and obviously acts like it on the court at every stage too.

Love Zion the most, he suprisingly seems like a really down to earth guy but with that Shaq like supreme confidence. He was pretty quite in this video for how he usually comes across.

Reddish and Jones are quitier and I guess more shy but their humor is constantly brough up by the other two. They were the ones who actually brought the group together in the first place and continue to be the engagers (good glue guy characters in the future possibly?).

I know obviously things like this are impossible to see for real because we get very limited insights only. Assessing the character of 18 year olds anyway is the most hit and miss thing even for NBA front offices, so take my hot takes and gushing for what theyre worth.

But anyway im starting to develop a serious crush on this group and im sure its gonna be a really really fun year.

 

[priceFTW]

Frankly I don't see how anyone is going to stop him.

The only person who can stop Zion is himself, by eating his way out of the league.

So if the Cavs get #1, and Zion continues on this path, they better really do their due dilegence and not get duped like they with with Bennett. But Bennett was always much more of a finesse tweener with average athleticism and a good jumper that fell off a cliff after college. Totally different player. But if Zion's character/motor/work ethic gets the thumbs up from the people it needs to get the thumbs up from, I don't see why you would even consider anyone else. That athleticism plus body frame/type is just so rare and so special...

I love Barrett, don't get me wrong...but I don't project him as a potential transformative star.... Is his ceiling high? Yeah...maybe could be the 10th best player in the league? Maybe the 8th?

But he just doesn't scream "FREAK" to me.....Zion does.

If his handle doesn’t develop and his shot doesn’t develop (relative to his age and from where we see it now in its basically untrained form), and he can’t create for others, he can have all the freak athleticism in the world, but he won’t be a true impact player offensively in the modern NBA and might very well be a defensive neutral or liability. Plenty of teams will stop him just fine.

Every single +5 offensive player over the last 5 years has been either a shooter/creator or a scorer/creator, or a shooter/scorer/creator.

I don’t see Zion becoming one of them, and I don’t see him being an impact defender. I think these things drastically lower his potential ceiling.

 

[Nathan S]

If his handle doesn’t develop and his shot doesn’t develop (relative to his age and from where we see it now in its basically untrained form), and he can’t create for others, he can have all the freak athleticism in the world, but he won’t be a true impact player offensively in the modern NBA and might very well be a defensive neutral or liability. Plenty of teams will stop him just fine.

Every single +5 offensive player over the last 5 years has been either a shooter/creator or a scorer/creator, or a shooter/scorer/creator.

I don’t see Zion becoming one of them, and I don’t see him being an impact defender. I think these things drastically lower his potential ceiling.

Why don't you see him being an impact defender? As I suggested before, I'm picturing him becoming similar to Jokic in overall impact: +3-4 on offense (elite for a frontcourt player), and +2-3 on defense (modestly above average for a frontcourt player), which would make him a top-10 player overall.

 

[ajz20]

I dont see the facilitating. At all.

He is a good defender though.

I think it is time to take the L on the hood camparison. Besides both playing at Duke and being wings they literally have have nothing in common.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Unrelatedly, I reminded myself of the BPM formula and solved the RJ Barrett mystery. His OBPM is low because the stat looks at a player's scoring efficiency relative to the rest of his team. This is a somewhat questionable approach that punishes players on efficient offensive teams, and helps players on inefficient offensive teams. Through one game, Duke has been quite efficient offensively, to put it mildly. So OBPM sees RJ Barrett dragging down his team's efficiency with his 55% true shooting, and holds that against him.

EDIT: to clarify,

Raw BPM = a*ReMPG + b*ORB% + c*DRB% + d*STL% + e*BLK% + f*AST% - g*USG%*TO% +
h*USG%*(1-TO%)*[2*(TS% - TmTS%) + i*AST% + j*(3PAr - Lg3PAr) - k] + l*sqrt(AST%*TRB%)


The bolded term is a large negative number for RJ, because his TS% is about 10 points lower than his team's TS%. That's at the root of his negative OBPM.

Thanks for clarifying. I suspected that might be the case (efficiency as compared to your team). Kind of funky in the scenario where you get a game like last night but over the course of the season, makes more sense.

 

[JrRD35]

I think RJ, Zion, and Cam could all struggle to create off the dribble against NBA wings, for different reasons. What makes Zion different is that he may not have to create against NBA wings...he'll be playing PF, maybe even C. That's a huge advantage, and that's where his superstar upside is IMO.

I think he can create against NBA wings if he gets room with that size and step on them there's no one that can stop him one on one.He puts that should down he is getting space no question. What i like is he is fearless. He can go through traffic against 1 or 3 defenders and get that shot off with his verticals. But he is just a big kid that he lands awkward and he might be injury prone.

 

[Nathan S]

I think he can create against NBA wings if he gets room with that size and step on them there's no one that can stop him one on one.He puts that should down he is getting space no question. What i like is he is fearless. He can go through traffic against 1 or 3 defenders and get that shot off with his verticals. But he is just a big kid that he lands awkward and he might be injury prone.

There's no reason to try to stop him one-on-one...you funnel him towards your rim protector, and force him to either change direction for an off-balance finish or make a quick pass off the dribble, neither of which are strengths of his. If you're looking for a wing, Barrett and Reddish seem at least as promising because of their superior court vision and off-the-dribble shooting ability. I would play Zion exclusively at PF and C...he's the perfect guy to put opposing bigs on their heels and run them off the floor. Our current brand of small ball fails because TT has very little offensive skill. Replace him with Zion, and all of a sudden we'd be able to dictate the style and pace of play.