2019 NBA Draft

[MD13]

Name a more iconic duo

Why exactly has Reddish been so bad? Whenever I watch his shot mechanics look good, but then all of a sudden it’s 10 mins left in the second half and he’s bricked his last 5 shots. There’s no way a guy with his rep out of HS should struggle to do anything positive offensively, yet here he is. Does he just completely lack confidence playing in Duke’s scheme?

 

[Nathan S]

Why exactly has Reddish been so bad? Whenever I watch his shot mechanics look good, but then all of a sudden it’s 10 mins left in the second half and he’s bricked his last 5 shots. There’s no way a guy with his rep out of HS should struggle to do anything positive offensively, yet here he is. Does he just completely lack confidence playing in Duke’s scheme?

I think his rep coming out of high school was more for his all-around game than for his shooting ability...as I pointed out in another post (I forget if in this thread), he was only a 29% 3-point shooter in Nike EYBL.

This was a good game for him in the sense that he got 6 boards, 6 assists, and 5 steals, which is the kind of all-around production he was expected to deliver. Obviously a bad game in that it drops his FG% under 35%, which I imagine would be unprecedented for a lottery pick.

Really bizarre prospect; I wouldn't touch him on draft night but I'm genuinely curious to see whether or not he manages to carve out a role at the next level.

 

[MD13]

I think his rep coming out of high school was more for his all-around game than for his shooting ability...as I pointed out in another post (I forget if in this thread), he was only a 29% 3-point shooter in Nike EYBL.

This was a good game for him in the sense that he got 6 boards, 6 assists, and 5 steals, which is the kind of all-around production he was expected to deliver. Obviously a bad game in that it drops his FG% under 35%, which I imagine would be unprecedented for a lottery pick.

Really bizarre prospect; I wouldn't touch him on draft night but I'm genuinely curious to see whether or not he manages to carve out a role at the next level.

If he just couldn’t hit 3s that’s one thing, but he looks completely overwhelmed whenever he tries to drive to the rim as well. Then he can’t even hit fts some games. I think he lacks strength and can’t really deal with contact right now, but sometimes it’s like he’s never practiced layups.

It’s a shame since his defense is easy to translate and he should be a plus wing defender at worst. It’s just crazy how bad he is shooting the ball.

 

[Nathan S]

If he just couldn’t hit 3s that’s one thing, but he looks completely overwhelmed whenever he tries to drive to the rim as well. Then he can’t even hit fts some games. I think he lacks strength and can’t really deal with contact right now, but sometimes it’s like he’s never practiced layups.

It’s a shame since his defense is easy to translate and he should be a plus wing defender at worst. It’s just crazy how bad he is shooting the ball.

Yeah, his inside-the-arc offense is arguably the most disappointing part of his game. He can't finish at the rim, he's not great pulling up off the dribble, and if you looked at his assist:TO ratio on drives it would be appalling. When he's on the perimeter he can see over the defense, take his time, and make good reads...but speed him up at all and the wheels come off.

That really limits his upside to 3&D roleplayer in my mind, and he's certainly good enough on defense to have a lot of impact in that role. He's good at using his length to envelope smaller guards/wings and blow up plays. The question is whether or not he's a good enough shooter to be valuable in that role on offense.

I compared him to Cedi a long time ago, and I still think that's a pretty decent comp. Like Cedi, he's probably worth a late first or early 2nd pick, but will probably go higher for no good reason.

 

[MD13]

Yeah, his inside-the-arc offense is arguably the most disappointing part of his game. He can't finish at the rim, he's not great pulling up off the dribble, and if you looked at his assist:TO ratio on drives it would be appalling. When he's on the perimeter he can see over the defense, take his time, and make good reads...but speed him up at all and the wheels come off.

That really limits his upside to 3&D roleplayer in my mind, and he's certainly good enough on defense to have a lot of impact in that role. He's good at using his length to envelope smaller guards/wings and blow up plays. The question is whether or not he's a good enough shooter to be valuable in that role on offense.

I compared him to Cedi a long time ago, and I still think that's a pretty decent comp. Like Cedi, he's probably worth a late first or early 2nd pick, but will probably go higher for no good reason.

A case can be made that a lot of his struggles are due to his role in Duke: they like to play with a useless 5, they almost never run pick and rolls, and he doesn’t have much room to drive as the designated spacer with 4 guys who struggle to shoot from outside. That said, I just can’t buy that line of thinking when he struggles to score even in transition opportunities when there’s one man to beat.

 

[Nathan S]

A case can be made that a lot of his struggles are due to his role in Duke: they like to play with a useless 5, they almost never run pick and rolls, and he doesn’t have much room to drive as the designated spacer with 4 guys who struggle to shoot from outside. That said, I just can’t buy that line of thinking when he struggles to score even in transition opportunities when there’s one man to beat.

Also, defenses always have their better defensive wings glued to Zion and RJ...that creates plenty of driving opportunities for Cam that he wouldn't have on a normal team, but he hasn't been able to capitalize at all.

EDIT: To be clear, I do get that the spacing is less than ideal since Zion in particular is an exclusively inside-the-arc scoring threat. But he still has a ton of gravity as a rebounder and a lob threat, sort of like TT in Cleveland at his very best. Defenses have to keep a body on him at all times.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Bitadze is a sure fire high quality starter and a possible future all-star.

I'd try to get another pick and raft the guy. He is a sure fire success. He has grown so much in so little time in terms of his body and game wise and he is only starting to grow into his body.

 

[Nathan S]

Remember when KPJ and Dort were hot picks to jump into the top-10? Yeeeesh...

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Remember when KPJ and Dort were hot picks to jump into the top-10? Yeeeesh...

You watching that game? I'm probably going to watch it tomorrow. I still think KPJ is top 10. The handle + athleticism is just too good... and he's shot the ball better than expected. Unless he gets suspended again I'm going to have him pretty high. With how bad the draft is after Zion I think I'd be more willing to go after highest ceiling possible than normal.

Idk if anyone ever had Dort top 10, but yeah this draft somehow is getting WORSE.

Reddish's play has been garbage going on 2 months now. Little has played a little bit better of late, but mostly just energy plays from what I saw. Porter with the suspension - I guess tonight he's been awful and had some poor body language too. Have enough of a sample on Langford now to say he's close to a non-shooter. Even Culver's had some rough games in conference play.

 

[Nathan S]

You watching that game? I'm probably going to watch it tomorrow. I still think KPJ is top 10. The handle + athleticism is just too good... and he's shot the ball better than expected. Unless he gets suspended again I'm going to have him pretty high. With how bad the draft is after Zion I think I'd be more willing to go after highest ceiling possible than normal.

Idk if anyone ever had Dort top 10, but yeah this draft somehow is getting WORSE.

Reddish's play has been garbage going on 2 months now. Little has played a little bit better of late, but mostly just energy plays from what I saw. Porter with the suspension - I guess tonight he's been awful and had some poor body language too. Have enough of a sample on Langford now to say he's close to a non-shooter. Even Culver's had some rough games in conference play.

I dunno...I cut Reddish, Little, Langford and even Grimes a little slack because they were top-10 recruits this year. Still wouldn't take them top-10, but I wouldn't be surprised if they go there.

Porter on the other hand was ranked much lower; some had him late 20's I think, and looking back now ESPN had him at 40. Put himself on the radar with a couple good games before getting injured, then has apparently struggled on and off the court since. I guess you could do worse if you're just drafting for upside, but could also do a lot better IMO.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I dunno...I cut Reddish, Little, Langford and even Grimes a little slack because they were top-10 recruits this year. Still wouldn't take them top-10, but I wouldn't be surprised if they go there.

Porter on the other hand was ranked much lower; some had him late 20's I think, and looking back now ESPN had him at 40. Put himself on the radar with a couple good games before getting injured, then has apparently struggled on and off the court since. I guess you could do worse if you're just drafting for upside, but could also do a lot better IMO.

ESPN was definitely lower on him than anyone. Rivals had him 16th. He had as much hype as pretty much any HS player outside the consensus top 10 iirc. Though players out of Seattle often get a lot of attention. I’m really hoping more info comes out on why he was suspended. Though my guess would be it is just overall attitude. I honestly think he’s a pretty solid fit next to Sexton as well. Can play on or off ball. Don’t really have a feel for him defensively yet because he’s not played much. A lot of people are low on his defense, but whenever I watch him I’m impressed with his energy level on that end. Just doesn’t play under control.


Off topic, but I’m curious where would you have each of Grant Williams and Brandon Clarke ranked? They’re probably the two most difficult evals to me in this draft but I know that stats love them. A lot of people seem to have them ranked back-to-back or in similar ranges.

 

[Nathan S]

ESPN was definitely lower on him than anyone. Rivals had him 16th. He had as much hype as pretty much any HS player outside the consensus top 10 iirc. Though players out of Seattle often get a lot of attention. I’m really hoping more info comes out on why he was suspended. Though my guess would be it is just overall attitude. I honestly think he’s a pretty solid fit next to Sexton as well. Can play on or off ball. Don’t really have a feel for him defensively yet because he’s not played much. A lot of people are low on his defense, but whenever I watch him I’m impressed with his energy level on that end. Just doesn’t play under control.


Off topic, but I’m curious where would you have each of Grant Williams and Brandon Clarke ranked? They’re probably the two most difficult evals to me in this draft but I know that stats love them. A lot of people seem to have them ranked back-to-back or in similar ranges.

My draft rater doesn't actually hate KPJ (+0.2 offense, +0.5 defense), so maybe I'm unnecessarily low on him because I just watched him play poorly and have heard people talk about his possibly bad attitude. My point was mainly that, like Dort, I think he really impressed some people early in the season with some highlight-reel plays, then pretty much disappeared. But maybe he hasn't lost as much stock as Dort.


I'm much higher on Williams than on Clarke. I think people are misevaluating Williams in part because they think he's some 23-year-old curmudgeon who's done developing. He'll still be 20 years old on opening night next year, the same age as some freshmen like Langford. He's still clearly improving and expanding his game, and if that trend continues for another couple of years he could be really good.

Clarke is a nice prospect too, especially on defense, but I don't see the same degree of upside there. He's significantly less skilled than Grant offensively in spite of being more than two years older than him. He also lacks Grant's impressive frame, which may limit his versatility on defense and will definitely limit his ability to attack the rim on offense. He'll be shooting floaters on plays where Grant will be shooting layups or going to the free throw line, and even though he has nice touch on those short midrange shots it's tough to create efficient offense that way.

Overall, I'd have Grant 2-7, Clarke 15-30 very roughly.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

My draft rater doesn't actually hate KPJ (+0.2 offense, +0.5 defense), so maybe I'm unnecessarily low on him because I just watched him play poorly and have heard people talk about his possibly bad attitude. My point was mainly that, like Dort, I think he really impressed some people early in the season with some highlight-reel plays, then pretty much disappeared. But maybe he hasn't lost as much stock as Dort.


I'm much higher on Williams than on Clarke. I think people are misevaluating Williams in part because they think he's some 23-year-old curmudgeon who's done developing. He'll still be 20 years old on opening night next year, the same age as some freshmen like Langford. He's still clearly improving and expanding his game, and if that trend continues for another couple of years he could be really good.

Clarke is a nice prospect too, especially on defense, but I don't see the same degree of upside there. He's significantly less skilled than Grant offensively in spite of being more than two years older than him. He also lacks Grant's impressive frame, which may limit his versatility on defense and will definitely limit his ability to attack the rim on offense. He'll be shooting floaters on plays where Grant will be shooting layups or going to the free throw line, and even though he has nice touch on those short midrange shots it's tough to create efficient offense that way.

Overall, I'd have Grant 2-7, Clarke 15-30 very roughly.

Yeah you’ve started to convince me on Grant Williams lol. I’ve just not watched enough of them lately for whatever reason. I’ve got their game against Arkansas recorded that I’m going to watch this week. He shut down Gafford supposedly that game... but it seems like a lot of his stat lines are produced at the FT line, so I’d rather put my time into watching other games. Like tonight he scored 19 on 8 shot attempts lol. Fortunately their conference schedule is backloaded sort of... have Kentucky twice still, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State before the tourney. I just need to see more perimeter offense and I think I’d view him close to a similar light as you do.

I view Clarke in the same range as you it sounds like.

 

[Nathan S]

Yeah you’ve started to convince me on Grant Williams lol. I’ve just not watched enough of them lately for whatever reason. I’ve got their game against Arkansas recorded that I’m going to watch this week. He shut down Gafford supposedly that game... but it seems like a lot of his stat lines are produced at the FT line, so I’d rather put my time into watching other games. Like tonight he scored 19 on 8 shot attempts lol. Fortunately their conference schedule is backloaded sort of... have Kentucky twice still, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State before the tourney. I just need to see more perimeter offense and I think I’d view him close to a similar light as you do.

I view Clarke in the same range as you it sounds like.

Yeah, Tennessee has so many high-profile games in their future (especially ones involving multiple other prospects) it's not worth going back to watch tape.

Another reason I'd really like to see the Cavs draft Williams (assuming they miss out on Zion) is his leadership. I've touched on that before...I think it's particularly risky to bring a talented guy who's not quite mature or who isn't a natural leader into a rudderless team like the Cavs. Vets and coaches aren't going to respect him, and he's going to feel like he's walking on eggshells after every missed shot.

Do you buy it? Obviously this is to some extent just a crazy extrapolation from one particularly painful datapoint in Sexton. But I would hate to see us make the same mistake twice.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Yeah, Tennessee has so many high-profile games in their future (especially ones involving multiple other prospects) it's not worth going back to watch tape.

Another reason I'd really like to see the Cavs draft Williams (assuming they miss out on Zion) is his leadership. I've touched on that before...I think it's particularly risky to bring a talented guy who's not quite mature or who isn't a natural leader into a rudderless team like the Cavs. Vets and coaches aren't going to respect him, and he's going to feel like he's walking on eggshells after every missed shot.

Do you buy it? Obviously this is to some extent just a crazy extrapolation from one particularly painful datapoint in Sexton. But I would hate to see us make the same mistake twice.

It definitely is something valuable... it also probably correlates pretty well with just being a smart and talented player lol. To me it's about talent over everything. As long as a player isn't a complete asshole, I probably wouldn't put too much weight on it in a negative sense. I think it's hard to say how much effect it has on a guy's play without being there and seeing them day-to-day. It's hard to gauge how receptive Sexton is to teammates and coaches without seeing it consistently first hand (also he just seems really odd in general lol). And really if he just improves and the team wins, a lot of that is somewhat meaningless... you can also always fill out leadership at the back of your roster. Like Kawhi is the furthest thing from a natural leader, but they're doing alright lol.

To me the way to avoid those types of situations you mentioned comes more with hiring the right coaching staff who will hold players accountable when they mess up. And empower them to play through their struggles that happen to every player in the league at some point. If there's issues (like there may be with Sexton & his confidence + teammates opinion of him), I'd say it's almost always more on the fault of the coaching staff than the actual player.

But still, having those traits like Grant has isn't something to ignore. Something I've always like to watch for is how a player's teammates react when they make a great play. That really stuck out to me recently while catching up on Nassir Little's recent games... you can just tell his teammates love him.

It's another talking point completely, but I've always wondered about the whole culture narrative that you hear about with just about every team in all sports. Does winning cause good culture? vs Does good culture cause winning? I'm more inclined to think the former, though you don't hear it talked in that sense very often, almost always just the latter. To me it's largely just a buzz-word that media likes to use lol.