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After two days off the Cavs stay home to take on the Knicks on Halloween, who are also 1-2 and also had two days off. This game will be billed as a rematch of last spring’s first round playoff series, but in fact, that series is irrelevant. It’s a new season and this is just the first of three important games between two teams who will probably be competing for playoff positioning. The game will be televised nationally on TNT.
In fact, the second game is tomorrow night in New York. The third game isn’t until March so after this back-to-back we won’t see the Knicks for four months.
This should be an interesting couple of games even though Garland and Allen will miss at least the first game. The Knicks might be the most unchanged team in the NBA, with 8 of their 9 rotation players back (and they’re all veterans). Only Obi Toppin is gone, replaced by Donte DiVincenzo, and Toppin averaged under 16 minutes last year.
The Cavs, on the other hand, have added some pieces, mainly Max Strus. So far it appears JBB is not enthralled with Ty Jerome, who has averaged just 7.5 minutes, or Damian Jones, who has averaged only 9.0 minutes despite Jarrett Allen being out. Georges Niang has scored 9 points in 60 minutes, shooting an abysmal 21% from the field and 8% on 3’s - his specialty.
It’s very early, but I’m wondering if Strus is going to be the ONLY significant addition to the Cavs this year. Strus has been as advertised so far, shooting 39.3% on 3’s and giving a surprising amount of help on the glass.
It would have been great to see a rematch of last year’s playoffs but with both Garland and Allen out it’s not going to happen.
I don’t want to review the Knicks’ 2023 stats in depth since they only played three games, but they are averaging 15 offensive boards per game, so they are still crashing the glass. In the playoffs last spring they averaged 15 offensive rebounds against the Cavs.
The Knicks are only averaging 105.7 points in their first three games after 114.1 last year. Is that just a slow start, a tough early schedule, or has something changed? Only four players are averaging more than 7.3 ppg. Julius Randle is shooting 27.7% - is he OK? The Knicks aș a team are shooting only 40.7% and are last in points in the paint, partly because they jack up so many 3’s - nearly 41 per game. They launch a 3 and crash the glass, hunting long rebounds.
Dylan Windler is now a Knick and has appeared in one game for three minutes. Surprisingly, he’s not on the injury list. Do they not let him practice?
Here’s some season preview information on the Knicks.
John Hollinger:
The Knicks are a tough team to model because three of their projected starters aren’t among their five most effective per-minute players. On the other hand, this is the best second unit in the league when the starters are healthy, and it’s not even close. Josh Hart, Immanuel Quickley and Isaiah Hartenstein all project as starter-quality players by BORG, and in fact grade out much better than starters Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson…
Whatever this mix is, it works. New York went 37-22 last season after Tom Thibodeau found the nine guys he trusted and played them almost exclusively for the rest of the season. Eight of those nine players are back, with DiVincenzo replacing Obi Toppin, and all of them are on the right side of 30. The lack of star power might limit the ceiling for this roster, but it’s a good, deep team that could end up winning a lot of regular-season games.
For the moment, however, the Knicks are in the best shape they’ve been in for decades. There is no superstar here, but there is a deep, hard-playing team…It won’t be a shock if this team is in the second round of the playoffs again.
VSin:
New York’s first season with Jalen Brunson on the roster went as well as the team could have hoped. The Knickerbockers won 47 games and took their first postseason series since 2013 when they defeated the Cavaliers in five games. Success like that is worth building on, and New York is doing just that by running it back this season.
There is a limit to how much better a team of veterans can be when a front office decides to retain the same core, but this was a different team in the second half of the season.
The Knicks’ strength last season was its offense, surprising for a Tom Thibodeau team, and it should be once more. New York averaged 118.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, the second-best offensive rating in the league. They did so by absolutely crushing teams on the offensive glass.
The team rebounded 30.8% of their missed attempts - the second-best rate in the league - and averaged 16.2 second-chance points per game. Cleaning The Glass had them as one of the most effective putback teams in the league….Mitchell Robinson is an elite offensive rebounder who ranked in the 98th percentile last season in offensive rebounding rate (17.2%), and Jericho Sims placed in the 88th percentile (12.7%). Players like Julius Randle and Josh Hart also contributed from their positions, which allowed the Knicks to dominate the offensive glass. That strength should remain in place this season.
There are some odd anomalies in New York’s offensive production though, and should they fail to replicate their success on the glass it could lead to a big dip in offensive production.
Despite finishing second in offensive rating, this team was somewhat inefficient from the floor. It finished 20th in overall effective field goal percentage (54.3%), and the most efficient area of the floor it shot from was short mid-range (shots 4-14 feet from the basket), and they finished no higher than 19th in shooting percentage from any other area.
In other words, the Knicks relied heavily on their offensive rebounding to produce its offense. It could be argued that a team that relies on efficient mid-range shooting and offensive rebounding could be due for a step back in efficiency the next season, and New York fits those parameters.
Should the Knicks regress on offense, this defense will have to be much better. They allowed 115.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time and ended up finishing 20th in halfcourt defensive rating (98.8). Taking this into consideration with their rebounding on defense - New York was 11th in defensive rebounding rate - and the 13.3 second chance points allowed per game, it’s pretty clear that opponents were having success on initial shot attempts.
It wasn’t all luck though. Once again the Knicks allowed a high rate of wide-open 3-point attempts last season. Opponents averaged 17.8 uncontested looks from beyond the arc per game and shot 38.8% on those shots. Initial success on a possession, coupled with a high rate of uncontested attempts, will equal a below-average defensive rating, and that is exactly what transpired for the Knicks last season.
Improvements on both ends of the floor are needed for the Knicks if they are going to maintain the success they had last season, but none of the improvements needed are ones that are impossible to achieve. They can certainly contend for one of the top four seeds in the Eastern Conference this season.
Win Total Analysis
This team won’t produce at the 59-win pace it was to end the season, but they should be among the five best in the East without a doubt.
My comments:
1. It will be interesting to see if the Knicks destroy the Cavs on the offensive glass again. What adjustments have the Cavs made after having all summer to think about it? Max Strus is averaging a whopping 9.3 rebounds per game; he has a knack for being in the right spot. Can he make a difference? Can a healthy Dean Wade provide some help on the defensive glass? How about a slightly stronger Evan Mobley?
2. If the Knicks continue to allow a high rate of wide-open 3-point attempts (nearly 18 per game), can the Cavs take advantage where they could not last year?
3. Will the Cavs try to play a more physical style to counter the Knicks’ physicality? I’m sure they will, but can they?
“I think we got out-toughed. We didn’t play the way we were supposed to play. I think we all let each other down, from the coaching staff all the way down. We brushed that off, though. It’s a new year. Ready to get back at it and hopefully get back in the playoffs and get past the first round.” - Darius Garland
“It’s a big game for us. We definitely really want to get this win and really put it on ‘em. So we’re definitely getting prepared and ready. We definitely want to go out there and really show the crowd and show our team as well that we’re out here to really fight.” - Evan Mobley
In fact, the second game is tomorrow night in New York. The third game isn’t until March so after this back-to-back we won’t see the Knicks for four months.
This should be an interesting couple of games even though Garland and Allen will miss at least the first game. The Knicks might be the most unchanged team in the NBA, with 8 of their 9 rotation players back (and they’re all veterans). Only Obi Toppin is gone, replaced by Donte DiVincenzo, and Toppin averaged under 16 minutes last year.
The Cavs, on the other hand, have added some pieces, mainly Max Strus. So far it appears JBB is not enthralled with Ty Jerome, who has averaged just 7.5 minutes, or Damian Jones, who has averaged only 9.0 minutes despite Jarrett Allen being out. Georges Niang has scored 9 points in 60 minutes, shooting an abysmal 21% from the field and 8% on 3’s - his specialty.
It’s very early, but I’m wondering if Strus is going to be the ONLY significant addition to the Cavs this year. Strus has been as advertised so far, shooting 39.3% on 3’s and giving a surprising amount of help on the glass.
It would have been great to see a rematch of last year’s playoffs but with both Garland and Allen out it’s not going to happen.
I don’t want to review the Knicks’ 2023 stats in depth since they only played three games, but they are averaging 15 offensive boards per game, so they are still crashing the glass. In the playoffs last spring they averaged 15 offensive rebounds against the Cavs.
The Knicks are only averaging 105.7 points in their first three games after 114.1 last year. Is that just a slow start, a tough early schedule, or has something changed? Only four players are averaging more than 7.3 ppg. Julius Randle is shooting 27.7% - is he OK? The Knicks aș a team are shooting only 40.7% and are last in points in the paint, partly because they jack up so many 3’s - nearly 41 per game. They launch a 3 and crash the glass, hunting long rebounds.
Dylan Windler is now a Knick and has appeared in one game for three minutes. Surprisingly, he’s not on the injury list. Do they not let him practice?
Here’s some season preview information on the Knicks.
John Hollinger:
The Knicks are a tough team to model because three of their projected starters aren’t among their five most effective per-minute players. On the other hand, this is the best second unit in the league when the starters are healthy, and it’s not even close. Josh Hart, Immanuel Quickley and Isaiah Hartenstein all project as starter-quality players by BORG, and in fact grade out much better than starters Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson…
Whatever this mix is, it works. New York went 37-22 last season after Tom Thibodeau found the nine guys he trusted and played them almost exclusively for the rest of the season. Eight of those nine players are back, with DiVincenzo replacing Obi Toppin, and all of them are on the right side of 30. The lack of star power might limit the ceiling for this roster, but it’s a good, deep team that could end up winning a lot of regular-season games.
For the moment, however, the Knicks are in the best shape they’ve been in for decades. There is no superstar here, but there is a deep, hard-playing team…It won’t be a shock if this team is in the second round of the playoffs again.
VSin:
New York’s first season with Jalen Brunson on the roster went as well as the team could have hoped. The Knickerbockers won 47 games and took their first postseason series since 2013 when they defeated the Cavaliers in five games. Success like that is worth building on, and New York is doing just that by running it back this season.
There is a limit to how much better a team of veterans can be when a front office decides to retain the same core, but this was a different team in the second half of the season.
The Knicks’ strength last season was its offense, surprising for a Tom Thibodeau team, and it should be once more. New York averaged 118.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, the second-best offensive rating in the league. They did so by absolutely crushing teams on the offensive glass.
The team rebounded 30.8% of their missed attempts - the second-best rate in the league - and averaged 16.2 second-chance points per game. Cleaning The Glass had them as one of the most effective putback teams in the league….Mitchell Robinson is an elite offensive rebounder who ranked in the 98th percentile last season in offensive rebounding rate (17.2%), and Jericho Sims placed in the 88th percentile (12.7%). Players like Julius Randle and Josh Hart also contributed from their positions, which allowed the Knicks to dominate the offensive glass. That strength should remain in place this season.
There are some odd anomalies in New York’s offensive production though, and should they fail to replicate their success on the glass it could lead to a big dip in offensive production.
Despite finishing second in offensive rating, this team was somewhat inefficient from the floor. It finished 20th in overall effective field goal percentage (54.3%), and the most efficient area of the floor it shot from was short mid-range (shots 4-14 feet from the basket), and they finished no higher than 19th in shooting percentage from any other area.
In other words, the Knicks relied heavily on their offensive rebounding to produce its offense. It could be argued that a team that relies on efficient mid-range shooting and offensive rebounding could be due for a step back in efficiency the next season, and New York fits those parameters.
Should the Knicks regress on offense, this defense will have to be much better. They allowed 115.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time and ended up finishing 20th in halfcourt defensive rating (98.8). Taking this into consideration with their rebounding on defense - New York was 11th in defensive rebounding rate - and the 13.3 second chance points allowed per game, it’s pretty clear that opponents were having success on initial shot attempts.
It wasn’t all luck though. Once again the Knicks allowed a high rate of wide-open 3-point attempts last season. Opponents averaged 17.8 uncontested looks from beyond the arc per game and shot 38.8% on those shots. Initial success on a possession, coupled with a high rate of uncontested attempts, will equal a below-average defensive rating, and that is exactly what transpired for the Knicks last season.
Improvements on both ends of the floor are needed for the Knicks if they are going to maintain the success they had last season, but none of the improvements needed are ones that are impossible to achieve. They can certainly contend for one of the top four seeds in the Eastern Conference this season.
Win Total Analysis
This team won’t produce at the 59-win pace it was to end the season, but they should be among the five best in the East without a doubt.
My comments:
1. It will be interesting to see if the Knicks destroy the Cavs on the offensive glass again. What adjustments have the Cavs made after having all summer to think about it? Max Strus is averaging a whopping 9.3 rebounds per game; he has a knack for being in the right spot. Can he make a difference? Can a healthy Dean Wade provide some help on the defensive glass? How about a slightly stronger Evan Mobley?
2. If the Knicks continue to allow a high rate of wide-open 3-point attempts (nearly 18 per game), can the Cavs take advantage where they could not last year?
3. Will the Cavs try to play a more physical style to counter the Knicks’ physicality? I’m sure they will, but can they?
“I think we got out-toughed. We didn’t play the way we were supposed to play. I think we all let each other down, from the coaching staff all the way down. We brushed that off, though. It’s a new year. Ready to get back at it and hopefully get back in the playoffs and get past the first round.” - Darius Garland
“It’s a big game for us. We definitely really want to get this win and really put it on ‘em. So we’re definitely getting prepared and ready. We definitely want to go out there and really show the crowd and show our team as well that we’re out here to really fight.” - Evan Mobley
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