Fangraphs is out with their power rankings going into the season. They are extremely unimpressed with the Guardians, ranking them in Tier 4 ("The Melee") behind eight teams ranked in Tiers 1, 2, and 3. The Angels, Twins, and Mariners are also in Tier 4 plus three N.L. teams. Fangraphs projects the Guardians to finish with a record of 82-80, a full ten wins fewer than last year and behind 14 other teams that Fangraphs expects to win more games.
Wow, did I miss something? Did Jose Ramirez retire? Is Bieber out for the year?
Obviously Fangraphs thinks the 92 games the Guardians won last year was a fluke. They probably expect big regressions from Kwan, Gonzalez, Gimenez, McKenzie, and Stephan. On paper the Guardians have exactly the same roster except for Byan Shaw (5.40 ERA) being replaced by some combination of Herrin, Gaddis, or Morris, Owen Miller and Ernie Clement being replaced by Gilbert Arias, Benson/Jones/Mercado being replaced by Will Brennan, and Hedges/Maile being replaced by Zunino/Gallagher.
All of those moves appear to be upgrades. I'm trying to be objective but I can't find one spot on the 26-man roster where it appears we are weaker than last year. And don't forget Josh Bell replacing Reyes and Miller at 1B/DH.
If anything Hosey, Naylor, and Gimenez will have bigger years due to the elimination of the shift. All the players that had productive seasons this year are either in their primes or still approaching their primes. There are three 30-year-olds on the roster; Zunino (32), Hosey (30), and Bell (30). Zunino won't be expected to catch every game or even close.
Everything points to the Guardians having a better roster than last year except for the injury to McKenzie. You could also point out that they don't need to go through a period of experimentation like last year where it took them a couple of months to shake things out and find the best lineup. Finally, their top prospects are either ready or very close to being able to play at the major league level if necessary, unlike last year. With eight prospects in MLB's top 100, they have all the ammunition they need to make a trade or two at the deadline to fill in any cracks or to replace an injury with a prospect who is ready, like Kwan and Gonzalez last year.
82-80? Win one, lose one? Ten fewer wins than last year? 15th most wins out of 30 teams? I don't see it.
I get that the White Sox have a talented roster that was ravaged by injuries last year. Fangraphs has them at 80-82, essentially the same as last year. The Twins, whose big move was to trade the A.L. Batting Champion for a pitcher that won 10 games last year, are projected to go 83-79, essentially the same as last year. So Fangraphs has the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox all in the 80-83 win category.
