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TA with some awesome breakdowns on FA options for the Browns--
Tl;DR--
2. Ashton Dulin (25)- Most will have never heard of or watched Dulin play as he only played a part time role with the Colts. But every time he stepped on the field, Dulin played pretty well. Surprisingly, he finished 45th among all NFL WRs in yards per route run, which is 2nd among all unrestricted free agent WRs available. Dulin came from a small school (Malone College) but produced an excellent 4.43 40 and 8.9 Relative Athletic Score when he came out for the draft. Dulin will likely not cost much at all but brings cheap upside. He also did not drop a pass on 20 targets this past season.
3. Darius Slayton (25)- After begging the Browns to trade a late round pick during training camp last season for Slayton, he finished 2022 with excellent production for the Giants. Slayton is an excellent deep threat and finished 2022 23rd in yac per reception and 48th in yards per route run for the Giants. He is only lower here because his value likely is at his highest.
4. Jakobi Meyers (26)- Likely not a realistic option as Meyers will receive significant attention in the FA market. But he is still young and is an all-around solid WR. Lacks deep, big play upside and plays nearly 70% of his snaps in the slot which may depress his market value somewhat. Browns would only be an option at depressed rate which is why he’s down this low on my list.
2. Devante Parker (29)- Parker is a big body WR who excels in contested catches down the field. 34% of his targets last season came 20+ yards down the field, good for 10th highest rate in the NFL. George Pickens and Jahan Dotson are the only other WRs who saw at least 30% of their targets down the field and also a deep ball PFF grade higher than Parker. He did not drop a ball on 47 targets this season, although drops had been a bit of an issue in the past. He likely won’t be as coveted as some other WRs on this list but is a decent option for what the Browns need down the field.
3. Brandin Cooks (29)- Cooks is still under 30 years old but definitely not a spring chicken. Houston takes a big dead cap hit if he is released or traded prior to June 1 but they save over $18M after June 1 via trade. He has a prior relationship in Houston with Deshaun Watson which helps the case. He can still get down the field but his past concussion issues would be concerning to the Browns. Compensation would likely be mid round pick at best so that shouldn’t be an issue.
4. Corey Davis (27)- Davis has been just ok with the Jets but that could be more due to the QB issues with New York. He can still get down the field (14.5 ADOT) and the Jets would save $10m with minimal dead cap hit if released prior to June 1. With potential cap concerns if the Jets go after a big name QB, Davis is a likely cut candidate and would fit nicely as a #3 for the Browns.
1. Sheldon Rankins (29)- Rankins tops my list among the most realistic UFA Defensive Tackles available. He is as close to a “big money” FA at DT I think the Browns will even consider but even then I don’t think he will break the bank. He has the pedigree that Andrew Berry likes, as a former 1st round pick, and outside of an outlier poor 2021 season, has played well throughout his career. He is the only free agent DT with a pressure rate (8.1%) above average as well as PFF run defense and pass rush grades above a 65. He is not great at anything but solid pretty much everywhere. As long as his demands aren’t crazy (PFF projects 2 year- $12M), he would be a nice fit.
2. Matt Ioannidis (28)- Ioannidis finished 35th among all DTs in PFF pass rush grade last season while he produced a good 9.8% pressure rate. He was also 5th best among DTs in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. Unfortunately, he could only convert those pressures into 1 sack all season (3% conversion rate). He is the only DT among the free agents available who produced a pressure rate above 7% but a sack conversion rate below 5%. This is a guy who has been an excellent interior pass rusher in his career and prior to last season, converted 15.3% of his career pressures into sacks. He has been very consistent in his career, earning a top 35 level PFF pass rush grade in each of the last six seasons He did battle some injuries last season and is getting closer to 30, so those factors may push Berry to look elsewhere but otherwise is another solid mid tier/bargain DT option.
3. Nathan Shepherd (30)- Another Jet! Shepherd was on my list last year as well (2022 Browns offseason — ClevAnalytics) and he proved me right in producing a solid season for NY. He produced an above average pressure rate at 8.2% but a modest 11.8% sack conversion rate (2 sacks) last season with the Jets. He is a little older at 30 years old and more of a rotational DT, but his 79.5 pass rush grade is by far the highest in the group and 9th among all NFL DTs last season. He also finished 2nd among all DTs in ESPN’s run stop win rate last year. He is a former 3rd round pick who posted excellent combine metrics coming out (9.2 RAS, 64th percentile SPARQ score). He will be fairly cheap and would fit in nicely as a bargain bin DT. He signed a modest 1 year, $1.1M contract to stay with the Jets last season and if the Browns offer a bit more this offseason, he would be an absolute steal as compared to the 1 year $5M that Taven Bryan got from the club last season.
4. John Cominsky (28)- Again, similar to Shepherd, Cominsky is more of a rotational DL and is a hybrid DE/DT who can play inside on some “Nascar” obvious passing down situations. I stuck him in this group, although he could easily be classified as an EDGE. He is a great athlete who posted the 5th highest SPARQ score among DL coming out and a 9.4 RAS score. He quietly posted an impressive 12.1% pressure rate last season for the Lions, the highest among UFA DTs and top 40 among all EDGE and DT in the NFL. His 9.1% sack conversion rate is well below the group average so he has the upside to produce much more than his 4 sacks of a year ago. He did have 3 sacks in just 8 games as a starter to end the season, after beginning as a backup. He won’t hurt you in the run game and his 16 stops are a solid figure.
5. Poona Ford (28)- I am sticking Ford in here even though he struggled a bit last season (56.2 PFF grade). This is mainly because he had four prior excellent seasons, where he posted a PFF grade above 68 in all of them, including two above 79. His 6.9% pressure rate last season was decent bus slightly below the DT average. He has been fairly consistently in that 6.5% to 7.5% range for three straight seasons so a team will be getting a pretty average pass rusher form the interior. His 52 PFF run defensive grade was the real disappointment last season. Especially considering that was his calling card throughout his career (career run grades of 90.0, 73.5, 73.0, 68.9). We already know Poona will likely produce average DT pressure, which is perfectly fine, but if he can regain some of his run stuffing production, will be an absolute steal at his projected contract (2 year- $12.5M).
6. Trysten Hill (25)- Hill would purely be a dirt cheap, backup level DT for the Browns. He has never been a true starting level DT in his short career but as a rotational player could have a lot of upside. His combine numbers (9.5 RAS, 81st percentile SPARQ) were outstanding for a man his size but it has not totally translated on the field yet. He was only in on 121 pass rush snaps last year between Dallas and Arizona, with 9 pressures (7.4% pressure rate) and 1 sack. That is almost identical to his 2021 season in Dallas. He has all the athleticism to produce at a high level in the NFL and at just 25 years old, the Browns could take a flier on him.
Deforest Buckner (28)- Buckner is one of the best DT in the NFL and after trading a #1 pick to SF and giving him a big contract, I am dubious that the Colts would let him go. However, the Colts are in a rebuild mode and trading Buckner can save the Colts $19M against the cap this season. A team like the Browns would love to acquire his services, but would they be willing to give up a 2nd(?) round pick and also pay him nearly $20M for each of the next two seasons? I doubt it but if they do decide to spend freely, he is an excellent player.
Shelby Harris (31)- Seattle can save $8.9M on their cap if they cut Harris prior to June 1st. Harris came over from Denver in the Russell Wilson trade, but he is getting longer in the tooth and I can see Seattle letting him go. He has been as consistent a pass rusher from the interior spot, as you will find in recent seasons. He has produced five straight seasons of 8% pressure rates or higher. Last season, however, was the first time in six seasons where he was not able to convert at least 11% of his pressures into sacks (7.1%). Considering he converted 21% of his pressures in 2021 into 7 sacks, it does not surprise me that his sack numbers came crashing back to earth last season. In 2020, his conversion rate was at a prior career low of 11.1%, so he did bounce back the last time his numbers were lower. There is no reason to think he couldn’t hit the 5-7 sack range this season. He was excellent in stopping the run last year, posting the 5th highest PFF run defensive grade among NFL DTs. He has posted a 76+ run grade in four of his last six seasons, consistently ranking among the top 20 run defenders in the NFL. If teams depress his market value after last season’s slight decline in sack production, he is the exact type of player who would fit the Browns needs at a reasonable price.
2023 NFL/Browns Free Agent Options – ClevAnalytics
www.clevanalytics.com
Tl;DR--
Potential Browns UFA WR Targets:
1. Mecole Hardman (24)- My top realistic option for the Browns. Fills a deep threat need, is only 24 years old and clearly expendable with the Chiefs cap situation. 2022 was the only season that he suffered injuries so he should not be labeled “injury prone”.2. Ashton Dulin (25)- Most will have never heard of or watched Dulin play as he only played a part time role with the Colts. But every time he stepped on the field, Dulin played pretty well. Surprisingly, he finished 45th among all NFL WRs in yards per route run, which is 2nd among all unrestricted free agent WRs available. Dulin came from a small school (Malone College) but produced an excellent 4.43 40 and 8.9 Relative Athletic Score when he came out for the draft. Dulin will likely not cost much at all but brings cheap upside. He also did not drop a pass on 20 targets this past season.
3. Darius Slayton (25)- After begging the Browns to trade a late round pick during training camp last season for Slayton, he finished 2022 with excellent production for the Giants. Slayton is an excellent deep threat and finished 2022 23rd in yac per reception and 48th in yards per route run for the Giants. He is only lower here because his value likely is at his highest.
4. Jakobi Meyers (26)- Likely not a realistic option as Meyers will receive significant attention in the FA market. But he is still young and is an all-around solid WR. Lacks deep, big play upside and plays nearly 70% of his snaps in the slot which may depress his market value somewhat. Browns would only be an option at depressed rate which is why he’s down this low on my list.
Potential Browns Cap Casualty WR Targets:
1. Courtland Sutton (27)- There is no guarantee Sutton will actually be traded but the Broncos are going to need to shed some salary in order to field a roster around Russell Wilson. Denver saves $14.4m if he is traded after June 1 and with Jerry Jeudy still on a rookie deal, there is a small chance Sutton is dealt. He fits what the Browns need/want in a younger WR who can get down the field. Not exactly sure on potential compensation for a trade but a 3rd round pick along with a contingent later round pick could be in range.2. Devante Parker (29)- Parker is a big body WR who excels in contested catches down the field. 34% of his targets last season came 20+ yards down the field, good for 10th highest rate in the NFL. George Pickens and Jahan Dotson are the only other WRs who saw at least 30% of their targets down the field and also a deep ball PFF grade higher than Parker. He did not drop a ball on 47 targets this season, although drops had been a bit of an issue in the past. He likely won’t be as coveted as some other WRs on this list but is a decent option for what the Browns need down the field.
3. Brandin Cooks (29)- Cooks is still under 30 years old but definitely not a spring chicken. Houston takes a big dead cap hit if he is released or traded prior to June 1 but they save over $18M after June 1 via trade. He has a prior relationship in Houston with Deshaun Watson which helps the case. He can still get down the field but his past concussion issues would be concerning to the Browns. Compensation would likely be mid round pick at best so that shouldn’t be an issue.
4. Corey Davis (27)- Davis has been just ok with the Jets but that could be more due to the QB issues with New York. He can still get down the field (14.5 ADOT) and the Jets would save $10m with minimal dead cap hit if released prior to June 1. With potential cap concerns if the Jets go after a big name QB, Davis is a likely cut candidate and would fit nicely as a #3 for the Browns.
Potential Browns UFA DT Targets:
The Browns are not flush with cap space, even after they likely the restructure of Deshaun Watson’s contract among others, so they will be very careful in allocating those resources. My expectation is that they will go after one or two DTs in FA, with one on the rotational side of things and another as a full fledged starter. However, they will likely go after the mid-tier DT as a starter if I had to guess. That likely pushes out guys expected to receive $10m+ per year contracts like Javon Hargrave, Zach Allen, Dre’mont Jones, Daron Payne and Dalvin Tomlinson. That is why those guys are not listed below.1. Sheldon Rankins (29)- Rankins tops my list among the most realistic UFA Defensive Tackles available. He is as close to a “big money” FA at DT I think the Browns will even consider but even then I don’t think he will break the bank. He has the pedigree that Andrew Berry likes, as a former 1st round pick, and outside of an outlier poor 2021 season, has played well throughout his career. He is the only free agent DT with a pressure rate (8.1%) above average as well as PFF run defense and pass rush grades above a 65. He is not great at anything but solid pretty much everywhere. As long as his demands aren’t crazy (PFF projects 2 year- $12M), he would be a nice fit.
2. Matt Ioannidis (28)- Ioannidis finished 35th among all DTs in PFF pass rush grade last season while he produced a good 9.8% pressure rate. He was also 5th best among DTs in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. Unfortunately, he could only convert those pressures into 1 sack all season (3% conversion rate). He is the only DT among the free agents available who produced a pressure rate above 7% but a sack conversion rate below 5%. This is a guy who has been an excellent interior pass rusher in his career and prior to last season, converted 15.3% of his career pressures into sacks. He has been very consistent in his career, earning a top 35 level PFF pass rush grade in each of the last six seasons He did battle some injuries last season and is getting closer to 30, so those factors may push Berry to look elsewhere but otherwise is another solid mid tier/bargain DT option.
3. Nathan Shepherd (30)- Another Jet! Shepherd was on my list last year as well (2022 Browns offseason — ClevAnalytics) and he proved me right in producing a solid season for NY. He produced an above average pressure rate at 8.2% but a modest 11.8% sack conversion rate (2 sacks) last season with the Jets. He is a little older at 30 years old and more of a rotational DT, but his 79.5 pass rush grade is by far the highest in the group and 9th among all NFL DTs last season. He also finished 2nd among all DTs in ESPN’s run stop win rate last year. He is a former 3rd round pick who posted excellent combine metrics coming out (9.2 RAS, 64th percentile SPARQ score). He will be fairly cheap and would fit in nicely as a bargain bin DT. He signed a modest 1 year, $1.1M contract to stay with the Jets last season and if the Browns offer a bit more this offseason, he would be an absolute steal as compared to the 1 year $5M that Taven Bryan got from the club last season.
4. John Cominsky (28)- Again, similar to Shepherd, Cominsky is more of a rotational DL and is a hybrid DE/DT who can play inside on some “Nascar” obvious passing down situations. I stuck him in this group, although he could easily be classified as an EDGE. He is a great athlete who posted the 5th highest SPARQ score among DL coming out and a 9.4 RAS score. He quietly posted an impressive 12.1% pressure rate last season for the Lions, the highest among UFA DTs and top 40 among all EDGE and DT in the NFL. His 9.1% sack conversion rate is well below the group average so he has the upside to produce much more than his 4 sacks of a year ago. He did have 3 sacks in just 8 games as a starter to end the season, after beginning as a backup. He won’t hurt you in the run game and his 16 stops are a solid figure.
5. Poona Ford (28)- I am sticking Ford in here even though he struggled a bit last season (56.2 PFF grade). This is mainly because he had four prior excellent seasons, where he posted a PFF grade above 68 in all of them, including two above 79. His 6.9% pressure rate last season was decent bus slightly below the DT average. He has been fairly consistently in that 6.5% to 7.5% range for three straight seasons so a team will be getting a pretty average pass rusher form the interior. His 52 PFF run defensive grade was the real disappointment last season. Especially considering that was his calling card throughout his career (career run grades of 90.0, 73.5, 73.0, 68.9). We already know Poona will likely produce average DT pressure, which is perfectly fine, but if he can regain some of his run stuffing production, will be an absolute steal at his projected contract (2 year- $12.5M).
6. Trysten Hill (25)- Hill would purely be a dirt cheap, backup level DT for the Browns. He has never been a true starting level DT in his short career but as a rotational player could have a lot of upside. His combine numbers (9.5 RAS, 81st percentile SPARQ) were outstanding for a man his size but it has not totally translated on the field yet. He was only in on 121 pass rush snaps last year between Dallas and Arizona, with 9 pressures (7.4% pressure rate) and 1 sack. That is almost identical to his 2021 season in Dallas. He has all the athleticism to produce at a high level in the NFL and at just 25 years old, the Browns could take a flier on him.
Potential Browns Cap Casualty DT Options:
(*Note: this doesn’t mean I definitely think some or all of these guys will get cut or traded, but these are the highest likelihood for that to potentially occur). For the Browns to even consider one of these guys, it would have to come with a contract that is flexible enough to not hurt the roster in coming years.Deforest Buckner (28)- Buckner is one of the best DT in the NFL and after trading a #1 pick to SF and giving him a big contract, I am dubious that the Colts would let him go. However, the Colts are in a rebuild mode and trading Buckner can save the Colts $19M against the cap this season. A team like the Browns would love to acquire his services, but would they be willing to give up a 2nd(?) round pick and also pay him nearly $20M for each of the next two seasons? I doubt it but if they do decide to spend freely, he is an excellent player.
Shelby Harris (31)- Seattle can save $8.9M on their cap if they cut Harris prior to June 1st. Harris came over from Denver in the Russell Wilson trade, but he is getting longer in the tooth and I can see Seattle letting him go. He has been as consistent a pass rusher from the interior spot, as you will find in recent seasons. He has produced five straight seasons of 8% pressure rates or higher. Last season, however, was the first time in six seasons where he was not able to convert at least 11% of his pressures into sacks (7.1%). Considering he converted 21% of his pressures in 2021 into 7 sacks, it does not surprise me that his sack numbers came crashing back to earth last season. In 2020, his conversion rate was at a prior career low of 11.1%, so he did bounce back the last time his numbers were lower. There is no reason to think he couldn’t hit the 5-7 sack range this season. He was excellent in stopping the run last year, posting the 5th highest PFF run defensive grade among NFL DTs. He has posted a 76+ run grade in four of his last six seasons, consistently ranking among the top 20 run defenders in the NFL. If teams depress his market value after last season’s slight decline in sack production, he is the exact type of player who would fit the Browns needs at a reasonable price.
