2023 Free Agency

[Vee-Rex]

I know people don't want to hear it but Daron Payne will not be a Cleveland Brown next year.. Why?

1). There's a good chance Payne doesn't even hit the market.. They'll have the cap space to make it work and good chance they work out a contractor or tag him before he becomes a UFA..

2). He would be too expensive even if he hit the open market.. Spotrac has Payne's estimated contract being 5yrs, $97.4M ($19.4M AAV) -- there's no way Berry would pay that.. Not for what he's getting and for all the holes they need filled..

3). He may not even be worth it... PFF has Payne only grading above 70 for one season (2020) in his four year career.. The past two years he's graded out as the 41st and 72nd best iDL in the league.. Not to mention, his run defense grades have been subpar the last two years -- Taven Bryan has graded out better this year vs the run...

Similar to reasons #1 and #2, I don't see Hargrave hitting the open market or being a realistic target..

Berry's history seems to suggest he prefers a one-year veteran and a high pick to address iDL.. Whether or not he pivots based on need and past strategy, we'll see this offseason... If he doesn't, it would lend credence to a Fletcher Cox (or maybe Suh reunion?) and Day 2 draft pick to address the iDL spot then Payne or Hargrave..

I will say, if the Browns to spend big I think Dalvin Tomlinson is the guy they do it on.. Also watching what happens with Teair Tart in Tennessee..

Personally I think Berry likes to make a big FA splash (signing or trade) and will spend the cap to do it. The team evaluates a huge need and attacks it. We saw it with Hooper in 2020 (even though it was a mishap), Jadeveon Clowney and JJ3 in 2021, Deshaun Watson in 2022, etc...

If we have 36-40 million in cap space and DT is a huge need on defense and is emphasized in Schwartz's scheme, I don't doubt for one second he'd pursue someone like Daron Payne or another guy in a trade even at 20 million AAV. It wouldn't be terrible given that he's only 25 years old. Cap manipulation would soften the blow for the 2023 year, and I wouldn't be shocked if Berry double-dipped and added on a cheaper but proven vet at 3-5 million AAV. Adding pro bowl level talent is only going to have a cascading effect on the rest of the d-line.

This is it - fail and the front office could be gone. I think Berry aggressively address our need with cap space in FA... make those DTs stout, perhaps a look at EDGE and safety as well. O-line depth and WR will also be something we keep our eye on both in FA and in the draft.

 

[Urban]

I know people don't want to hear it but Daron Payne will not be a Cleveland Brown next year.. Why?

1). There's a good chance Payne doesn't even hit the market.. They'll have the cap space to make it work and good chance they work out a contractor or tag him before he becomes a UFA..

Playing Devil's Advocate. They already paid Jonathan Allen 2 summers ago. Montez Sweat will be a free agent next summer. Chase Young the summer after that. Seems unlikely they pay all these guys, but maybe they'll extend Payne and cross that bridge when they come to it. Also noting, they did spend a 2nd round pick on a DT (Mathis from Bama) last year, who missed the entire season after getting hurt on the first game of the year.

 

[Smooth]

I agree with the gist of your post. However, one thing I'd point out--when I see things like the bolded, I view that as just another indictment of PFF.

Da'Ron Payne is an excellent, stout force in the middle of that defensive line. He's about as strong as they come and has zero issues maintaining two-gap discipline in run fits. He and Allen combined to make one of the most dominant DT duos of this recent NFL era.

As soon as Washington added Payne, that defensive line became their identity, and no PFF grade is going to change what Payne actually does on the field.

The post wasn't to say Payne is a bad player or wouldn't be a positive to the team, it's more so pointing out that Payne hasn't necessarily graded as well as is talents/reputation would lead you to believe, and that combined with is price tag may not be worth it..

Now with that said, I realize the ripple effect a defensive lineman of his caliber has on the rest of the unit and rest of the defense.. I do wonder how well PFF accounts for that type of impact outside of individual play when it comes to positions like iDL that really effect more than just their position..

However when it comes to team building, I tend to be on the side that would rather spend $19.5M differently along the line... Heck, Spotrac has Dremont Jones and Dalvin Tomlinson's coming in at a lower AAV next year than Payne... Using their Market Value tool, you could afford Tomlinson, Jones and Brandon Graham for the same price as Payne...

Are DPJ and Schwartz not vertical threats? I'd even say Njoku is one. He's one of the better tight ends in the league at attacking vertically up the seam.

I know what you're saying--I also just don't think the majority of modern NFL coverages work that way. Schwartz can run fast in a straight line, and a DB would have to carry him down the field, but that just isn't going to significantly change the way the rest of the defense covers the other guys, and especially not within the short time frame most plays have to develop.

I wouldn't mind grabbing another receiver in the draft--but I look more for guys who can get open early and YAC it up. Obviously someone like Zay Flowers stands out early, but I have no problem taking a gamble on someone like Tank Dell in the later rounds.

I'm hoping that Schwartz is a data point that adjusted the way we evaluate prospects. It's clear that his timed speed doesn't translate to the football field, let alone all of the other issues in his game.

I also agree that Fuller would be a nice addition if he comes cheap--for the three games or so he's healthy.

Few data points:



We know how important explosive pass plays are, and the Browns were among league worst last year... You could attribute that somewhat to Brissett being a below average deep ball thrower, but I'd say it's mostly due to the Browns just not having that guy to stretch the defense..

Another way to evaluate Browns WRs when it comes to explosive pass plays is average depth of target (ADOT)--

DPJ: 12
Amari: 11.78
Njoku: 6.45

DPJ and Amari's numbers aren't terrible but it lends credence to that just not being part of their game..

ESPN also put out some receiver metrics: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings. The one stat to keep an eye on is the 'open' score -- how effective were WRs at creating separation and space?

Cooper: 54
DPJ: 41
Njoku: 51

Again, those matchup with the ADOT and speak to the Browns really not having that explosive vertical threat and also the need for one..

I do agree you can find that in the draft (I know Zay Flowers is another popular name) but I'd also be extremely interested in a veteran who can provide that skillset at a lower cost..

 

[Smooth]

Personally I think Berry likes to make a big FA splash (signing or trade) and will spend the cap to do it. The team evaluates a huge need and attacks it. We saw it with Hooper in 2020 (even though it was a mishap), Jadeveon Clowney and JJ3 in 2021, Deshaun Watson in 2022, etc...

If we have 36-40 million in cap space and DT is a huge need on defense and is emphasized in Schwartz's scheme, I don't doubt for one second he'd pursue someone like Daron Payne or another guy in a trade even at 20 million AAV. It wouldn't be terrible given that he's only 25 years old. Cap manipulation would soften the blow for the 2023 year, and I wouldn't be shocked if Berry double-dipped and added on a cheaper but proven vet at 3-5 million AAV. Adding pro bowl level talent is only going to have a cascading effect on the rest of the d-line.

This is it - fail and the front office could be gone. I think Berry aggressively address our need with cap space in FA... make those DTs stout, perhaps a look at EDGE and safety as well. O-line depth and WR will also be something we keep our eye on both in FA and in the draft.

Here's where things likely stand... They can create a whole bunch more room by other restructures but restructuring is like credit card debt: it gives you immediate flexibility to afford but once that interest and total compounds, there comes a day when you have to pay that bill..


I do agree about Berry likely being aggressive to address the two perceived weak spots: DL and S... I just disagree how I anticipate them spending it, or who it might be on... I'd say Hargrave is a more likely target than Payne.. However, Berry does like those former 1st round picks and guys coming off their first contract.. If you look at his highest AAV, multi-year signings (JJIII, Hooper and Conklin) all were coming off their rookie contract..

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

The post wasn't to say Payne is a bad player or wouldn't be a positive to the team, it's more so pointing out that Payne hasn't necessarily graded as well as is talents/reputation would lead you to believe, and that combined with is price tag may not be worth it..

Now with that said, I realize the ripple effect a defensive lineman of his caliber has on the rest of the unit and rest of the defense.. I do wonder how well PFF accounts for that type of impact outside of individual play when it comes to positions like iDL that really effect more than just their position..

However when it comes to team building, I tend to be on the side that would rather spend $19.5M differently along the line... Heck, Spotrac has Dremont Jones and Dalvin Tomlinson's coming in at a lower AAV next year than Payne... Using their Market Value tool, you could afford Tomlinson, Jones and Brandon Graham for the same price as Payne...



Few data points:



We know how important explosive pass plays are, and the Browns were among league worst last year... You could attribute that somewhat to Brissett being a below average deep ball thrower, but I'd say it's mostly due to the Browns just not having that guy to stretch the defense..

Another way to evaluate Browns WRs when it comes to explosive pass plays is average depth of target (ADOT)--

DPJ: 12
Amari: 11.78
Njoku: 6.45

DPJ and Amari's numbers aren't terrible but it lends credence to that just not being part of their game..

ESPN also put out some receiver metrics: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings. The one stat to keep an eye on is the 'open' score -- how effective were WRs at creating separation and space?

Cooper: 54
DPJ: 41
Njoku: 51

Again, those matchup with the ADOT and speak to the Browns really not having that explosive vertical threat and also the need for one..

I do agree you can find that in the draft (I know Zay Flowers is another popular name) but I'd also be extremely interested in a veteran who can provide that skillset at a lower cost..

I just think PFF is notoriously awful at grading in the trenches.

They're a cool tool. I hope more people do what they do and that branch becomes better, more open and more available. I've just always viewed them more as a curiosity than an arbiter of reality.

Why do you feel ADOT is more valuable than the total value of the play which includes YAC? I think someone who can take a slant to the house is more dangerous and applies more pressure to a defense than someone running a 9 route.

If I look at ADOT numbers from last year, I see guys like Justin Watson, Van Jefferson, Gabriel Davis, etc near the top. These guys aren't the best deep threats in the league--they're players that can't run any other route.

You can find players like DK Metcalf and Stefon Diggs, who might be two of the best deep threats in the NFL, much further down the list at 11.2 ADOT. This isn't because they struggle to run deep routes--it's because they're capable of doing so much more than just running fly routes, crosses and deep posts.

So, I guess I just struggle to see any value in using ADOT to grade receivers. Where do you see the value?

Separation is definitely going to be an area where guys like DPJ, Nuk, Pickens, etc grade poorly. Their benefit is they're big-bodied guys who are always open because they can win the contested catch.

As far as how to build the defensive line, a lot of it depends on the draft. If I get someone I feel comfortable with starting at DE, like Van Ness, then I'm more inclined to go all-in on someone like Payne, and hope LVN/Winfrey/Payne/Myles can all team up to wreak havoc this year. If Payne means we're starting Alex Wright at the opposite end, I'd shy away from him.

 

[Los216]

JJ3 isn't getting cut. At least I don't think he is.

 

[Los216]

Pass.

These players are largely unproductive and inefficient, which isn’t what you need as a change of pace.

Nothing you can’t acquire through the draft in the form of young speed and vertical ability.

Isn't this Michael Woods? Schwartz may or may not be here but I'm operating under the sense that he'll be here for reasons. So if we're going into next season with Woods and Schwartz still here, wouldn't spending a draft pick on a WR with the same traits as Woods and Schwartz be viewed as a wasted draft pick?

It seems like and area of improvement that would be easier and wiser to replace with a small FA signing. I also think that Jakeem Grant will factor into the offense next season probably more than Schwartz did this season.

If we spend a draft pick on a speedy WR I'm not sure it would be higher than a 4th which at that point looks redundant with Woods, Grant, and Schwartz still here. Signing a FA to a 1 year deal could fix it and allow us to invest another draft pick into the OL which is what I would prefer more than a WR.

 

[AZ_]

Isn't this Michael Woods? Schwartz may or may not be here but I'm operating under the sense that he'll be here for reasons. So if we're going into next season with Woods and Schwartz still here, wouldn't spending a draft pick on a WR with the same traits as Woods and Schwartz be viewed as a wasted draft pick?

It seems like and area of improvement that would be easier and wiser to replace with a small FA signing. I also think that Jakeem Grant will factor into the offense next season probably more than Schwartz did this season.

If we spend a draft pick on a speedy WR I'm not sure it would be higher than a 4th which at that point looks redundant with Woods, Grant, and Schwartz still here. Signing a FA to a 1 year deal could fix it and allow us to invest another draft pick into the OL which is what I would prefer more than a WR.

Yes, Schwartz has been a waste of a draft pick to this point.

Woods has another year to crack playing time.


I think you keep swinging at young talent in the middle to later rounds where you can find and develop traits. Committing a veteran FA contract from a pool of inconsistent, oft-injured and inefficient veterans isn't doing much to solve that IMO.

 

[Smooth]

JJ3 isn't getting cut. At least I don't think he is.

0.0% chance JJIII comes back to the Browns on the same salary..

They will either trade (not much value there), cut or ask to restructure... It may end up like Sheldon Richardson where they ask to restructure and he says nah cut me..

They would realize $9.75M in cap space with a post 6/1 cut and only have $3.75M in dead cap...

They can find much more productive and cheaper alternatives than paying him top-10 safety money..

 

[Smooth]

I just think PFF is notoriously awful at grading in the trenches.

They're a cool tool. I hope more people do what they do and that branch becomes better, more open and more available. I've just always viewed them more as a curiosity than an arbiter of reality.

Why do you feel ADOT is more valuable than the total value of the play which includes YAC? I think someone who can take a slant to the house is more dangerous and applies more pressure to a defense than someone running a 9 route.

If I look at ADOT numbers from last year, I see guys like Justin Watson, Van Jefferson, Gabriel Davis, etc near the top. These guys aren't the best deep threats in the league--they're players that can't run any other route.

You can find players like DK Metcalf and Stefon Diggs, who might be two of the best deep threats in the NFL, much further down the list at 11.2 ADOT. This isn't because they struggle to run deep routes--it's because they're capable of doing so much more than just running fly routes, crosses and deep posts.

So, I guess I just struggle to see any value in using ADOT to grade receivers. Where do you see the value?

Separation is definitely going to be an area where guys like DPJ, Nuk, Pickens, etc grade poorly. Their benefit is they're big-bodied guys who are always open because they can win the contested catch.

As far as how to build the defensive line, a lot of it depends on the draft. If I get someone I feel comfortable with starting at DE, like Van Ness, then I'm more inclined to go all-in on someone like Payne, and hope LVN/Winfrey/Payne/Myles can all team up to wreak havoc this year. If Payne means we're starting Alex Wright at the opposite end, I'd shy away from him.

YAC is more useful to measure how well a WR/TE can create after the catch... aDOT doesn't measure catches or success, it's simply indicative of the depth a ball thrown his way... aDOT will only increase if they are consistently seeing passes thrown to them downfield... To me, aDOT is a better statistical describer for who is getting their looks downfield i.e. vertical threats.. Not the end all be all but provides a good glimpse into that skillset..

Understood there's noise in any stat and more polished receivers who can run a variety of routes would likely see their aDOT differ than a more limited route tree than the ones as you mentioned... But to me, the Browns just really need this one skillset.. Cooper, DPJ, and Njoku all really work the middle and intermediate routes well and Bell has the potential to be really good underneath and move the chains... Just don't think they have "that guy" to really stress the defense vertically to create chunk plays... Far too often last year Browns didn't really have a way to penalize teams for cheating up to defend the run.. When a guy with that speed is on the field, just causes that much more stress for the defense..

This isn't taking away from Cooper or DPJ's ability as wide receivers, it's just saying the Browns need to do more to stress the defense and create explosive plays and I don't think that's Cooper or DPJ's strongest skillset..

Another interesting data point.. Chark and Slayton are guys to watch -- especially Slayton to me.. Also curious if Broncos would be open to trading Jeudy..

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

YAC is more useful to measure how well a WR/TE can create after the catch... aDOT doesn't measure catches or success, it's simply indicative of the depth a ball thrown his way... aDOT will only increase if they are consistently seeing passes thrown to them downfield... To me, aDOT is a better statistical describer for who is getting their looks downfield i.e. vertical threats.. Not the end all be all but provides a good glimpse into that skillset..

See, I think it's almost the exact opposite, and people grossly misuse the stat in the way you're talking about.

Just look at who the best deep ball threats are in the league. Guys I mentioned earlier like Diggs and Metcalf. Throw in Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Lockett, Tyreek Hill. Absolutely none of them are anywhere close to the top of the ADoT charts. That's because they're good at all levels of the field--and every short route they draw a target on reduces their aDOT. That doesn't mean that Justin Watson is a better deep ball receiver. It means that Justin Watson can't do anything but run go routes.

When you look atop the ADOT leaderboards, you're looking at the worst and most limited receivers in the league. You aren't finding the guys who are best at getting open on deep routes--you're finding the guys incapable of getting open on short-to-intermediate routes.

Understood there's noise in any stat and more polished receivers who can run a variety of routes would likely see their aDOT differ than a more limited route tree than the ones as you mentioned... But to me, the Browns just really need this one skillset.. Cooper, DPJ, and Njoku all really work the middle and intermediate routes well and Bell has the potential to be really good underneath and move the chains... Just don't think they have "that guy" to really stress the defense vertically to create chunk plays... Far too often last year Browns didn't really have a way to penalize teams for cheating up to defend the run.. When a guy with that speed is on the field, just causes that much more stress for the defense..

See, I don't even think it's about speed.

Give me a guy like Amari Cooper who knows how to use his feet and his body to set up a corner. His releases at the line allow him to win deep.

Then you look at someone with speed, like Anthony Schwartz--he can't get open because he doesn't know how to be a wide receiver. And that isn't a "hurr durr, he's a track star" shot. This is a kid who's been a wide receiver and a football player his whole life and he just doesn't have it. It's like a phyiscal freak at linebacker who can't diagnose a play (cough cough Chaun Thompson). Give me Chris Borland every time.

And DPJ is always a deep threat because he doesn't need separation to get open. Guys like DPJ and George Pickens are great targets for QB's and great thorns in the sides of opposing defenses because they can make big plays and provide excellent vertical threats.

I'm excited to watch Jakeem Grant work underneath. Just watching his speed pull away from a man defender on a drag route is going to bring a smile to my face.

This isn't taking away from Cooper or DPJ's ability as wide receivers, it's just saying the Browns need to do more to stress the defense and create explosive plays and I don't think that's Cooper or DPJ's strongest skillset..

I agree that we need a third receiver. I just don't agree with the rest of your analysis. I don't think speed translates as well as many people think it does. If it did, Schwartz running a 9 would draw the defense as well as anyone.

Another interesting data point.. Chark and Slayton are guys to watch -- especially Slayton to me.. Also curious if Broncos would be open to trading Jeudy..

I think Slayton gets paid in free agency at a dollar amount higher than people are expecting--similar to the way Christian Kirk did last year.

I do think DJ Chark is someone worth kicking the tires on.

I watched how fucking TERRIBLE and broken he looked in New York, but I'd still kick the tires on Kenny Golladay as well if he becomes available.

 

[Vee-Rex]

YAC is more useful to measure how well a WR/TE can create after the catch... aDOT doesn't measure catches or success, it's simply indicative of the depth a ball thrown his way... aDOT will only increase if they are consistently seeing passes thrown to them downfield... To me, aDOT is a better statistical describer for who is getting their looks downfield i.e. vertical threats.. Not the end all be all but provides a good glimpse into that skillset..

Understood there's noise in any stat and more polished receivers who can run a variety of routes would likely see their aDOT differ than a more limited route tree than the ones as you mentioned... But to me, the Browns just really need this one skillset.. Cooper, DPJ, and Njoku all really work the middle and intermediate routes well and Bell has the potential to be really good underneath and move the chains... Just don't think they have "that guy" to really stress the defense vertically to create chunk plays... Far too often last year Browns didn't really have a way to penalize teams for cheating up to defend the run.. When a guy with that speed is on the field, just causes that much more stress for the defense..

This isn't taking away from Cooper or DPJ's ability as wide receivers, it's just saying the Browns need to do more to stress the defense and create explosive plays and I don't think that's Cooper or DPJ's strongest skillset..

Another interesting data point.. Chark and Slayton are guys to watch -- especially Slayton to me.. Also curious if Broncos would be open to trading Jeudy..

In addition to everything @Out of the Rafters at the Q mentioned... also gotta wonder how much scheme and QB affects aDOT for these wide receivers. I personally think Cooper and DPJ are vertical threats but maybe they're not given the opportunity as much due to Stefanski's style of offense and Jacoby Brissett being the QB for most the year. Cooper is not necessarily a "burner" but he's a huge play machine and has done it his whole career. Even on vertical routes a guy's technique and timing with the QB is important.

It's really hard to find the burners who are also good at short/intermediate routes and have great hands, ball tracking skills, etc...

With Watson playing every game in 2023, we might see more opportunities and plays designed to go downfield. I do think we could use another guy in the room as you said and preferably someone with more speed. I'm probably absurdly high on Michael Woods and love his ability to catch and the aggressive way he runs after the catch. I'm higher on him than David Bell. I really hope we can give Woods an opportunity next year.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

To tack onto the DJ Chark conversation, if you don't think DPJ is a deep threat, why do you think DJ Chark is one?

Chark is DPJ if DPJ couldn't stay healthy. They're both big bodied guys with pretty good speed who make contested catches vertically downfield. They aren't going to set up the defender with their footwork and gain separation or accelerate away from people.

DPJ is stronger with his hands and has stayed healthy. Chark isn't as reliable of a hands guy and has been injured often.

 

[Real Deal]

 

[Smooth]

Grossi delving into analytics!