Twins and the Soxs aren't better on paper if everyone is healthy...
Everyone is not going to be healthy.. so depth is key.. and the depth is clearly one sided when it comes to evaluating the Guardians/CWSox/Twins.. in five discrete areas for both offensive and defensive play (Starting Pitchers, Top Five Relief Pitchers, Infielders including Starting Catcher) Outfield and Bench.. Doing a complete regression analysis against a full set of variables (DRS, OPS+, ERA, Ratios, Counting Stats, etc.. etc..), the results are pretty clear:
Guardians are just under 13 % better than the second place CWSox...
CWSox are just over 9 % better than than the Twins..
A few notes.. the combination of Cease, Lynn and Gio along with the rest of the CWSox starting pitching results in the CWSox being just over 11 % better than the Guardians Starting staff.
Both the CWSox and the Twins depth in their relief corps makes them virtually the same and significantly poorer than the Guardians bullpen.. pretty easily too..
The three infields of each of the three teams are virtually a draw.. Correa's inclusion on the Twins is largely responsible for the Twins being considered as highly as they are..
The Outfield would be the next closest area of the three teams.. The offensive profile of the Twins LF'er and the Guardians CF'er are what drag these two teams back to the middle..
The CWSox bench is slightly worse than either of the Twins and Guardians.. The CWSox bench players have too little versatility to be considered a strength..
What this means:
-Guardians with 7 more wins than the CWSox
-CWSox with 5 more wins than the Twins..
-12 games separate first to third in the AL Central..
Comments?..