2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Jim Bowden of The Athletic has a column of what to believe and not to believe about what has happened in baseball so far. One of the things not to believe is the Guardians' run differential, in his opinion.

The Guardians are tied for the major-league lead in run differential, but I’m not believing it. Yes, they are 19-9 with a run differential of +46, but they also won eight games against the White Sox and A’s, two of the league’s worst teams, which drove much of that run differential. The Guardians’ start has been impressive and they are a legit contender to win the AL Central, but I think it will be a four-team race to the end, with the White Sox being the only Central team without a chance. The reason I don’t believe in the Guardians’ run differential is not just their schedule, but also their offense. I like the top of their lineup as Steven Kwan and Andrés Giménez can provide traffic on the basepaths and José Ramírez and Josh Naylor can bang them home. However, I don’t think the bottom half of their lineup has enough juice to create the runs they’ll need to be among the leaders in run differential. On the pitching side, I like their young rotation and dominant bullpen, which will give them a chance to win the division. But I still think they need to trade for a right fielder, and think they’re a perfect match with the Orioles in a trade sending a top reliever to Baltimore for one of their right fielders.

Looking at the O's depth chart, I assume that would be Ryan O'Hearn, a 30-year-old left-handed hitter who is hitting .299/.926, with most of his at-bats coming as a DH. Their starting RF is Anthony Santander and the guy listed next on the depth chart is a 25-year-old with 35 career at-bats. That would be Heston Kjerstad, who Fangraphs ranks as the 26th best prospect in baseball. The Guardians' top guy is DeLauter at #31.

I assume the O's aren't giving up Kjerstad for a relief pitcher, but how about O'Hearn? Baltimore's bullpen is above average so I doubt they would trade him for a "top reliever". Besides, the only "top reliever" we have is Clase. What we have now are a bunch of unproven (Cade Smith, Herrin, Gaddis) and mediocre (Sandlin, Eli, Barlow, Beede) guys who are pitching above their norms or haven't been in the bigs long enough to establish norms.

But I wouldn't mind getting O'Hearn if it could be done. The O's are in a win now mode so I can't see them trading a DH that's over .900 for a "top reliever", even if we had one. I'm not giving up Clase for O'Hearn.

 

[Criznit]

It's May 1st - and the pressure is on.
It's on the FO I think.
Right now I see two issues that will need to be addressed by the FO soon.

1. We need another healthy SP - like yesterday. That could be Curry, or a veteran AAAA player that can battle and eat some innings. The other alternative would be to make a trade for a SP with a team that has had a poor start. I would be in favor of that option, depending on the names. I still think our 40-man is bloated and some players have earned a chance with some organization.

2. Speaking of opportunity,,, Kyle Manzardo is forcing the issue. Initially I thought we should wait for around Memorial Day, but I'm not so sure now. You can always use a good bat in the lineup. He's healthy, he's got confidence. Let's go.
He would have to share 1B/DH duties with Naylor. That's not too bad. But it also reduces the DH opportunities for Frye, Florial, and others. So, that's another reason to make a trade.

No Manzardo until the Super 2 hurdle is definitely cleared.

If Valera is doing anything, my gut tells me he is the guy they'll call up first. I think they will try to go with someone on the 40 man first, even if it is not Valera.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Jim Bowden of The Athletic has a column of what to believe and not to believe about what has happened in baseball so far. One of the things not to believe is the Guardians' run differential, in his opinion.

The Guardians are tied for the major-league lead in run differential, but I’m not believing it. Yes, they are 19-9 with a run differential of +46, but they also won eight games against the White Sox and A’s, two of the league’s worst teams, which drove much of that run differential. The Guardians’ start has been impressive and they are a legit contender to win the AL Central, but I think it will be a four-team race to the end, with the White Sox being the only Central team without a chance. The reason I don’t believe in the Guardians’ run differential is not just their schedule, but also their offense. I like the top of their lineup as Steven Kwan and Andrés Giménez can provide traffic on the basepaths and José Ramírez and Josh Naylor can bang them home. However, I don’t think the bottom half of their lineup has enough juice to create the runs they’ll need to be among the leaders in run differential. On the pitching side, I like their young rotation and dominant bullpen, which will give them a chance to win the division. But I still think they need to trade for a right fielder, and think they’re a perfect match with the Orioles in a trade sending a top reliever to Baltimore for one of their right fielders.

Gaddis is available.

 

[CDAV45]

Gaddis is available.

Or Clase. Depends on which "RFer" you're talking about. Do we even need a RFer? We might need a SP or a SS instead. What's Rengifo up to these days?

 

[PPark]

Same goes for Freeman.

League Average CF:

.225 .293 .360 with .277 BABIP and 38.1 Hard Hit %

Freeman

.205 .302 .361 with .222 BABIP and 51.5 Hard Hit%

Freeman expected #’s

.254 .335 .426

Again, with a little luck he’s better than league average in CF (which is essentially Myles Straw).

 

[Gson]

Putting Freeman in CF has loosened up the IF logjam to the point where everyone who plays on the dirt is getting opportunities to perform.. IF there is a trade (Arias or Rocchio) then Freeman can/should get a start or three in the middle infield.. it's in the best interest of the club to keep his versatility intact...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

From Zach Meisel:

Aside from Kwan, Naylor and Fry, no hitter has outperformed expectations, yet the club ranks fifth in the majors in runs per game.

I'm not sure what a reasonable expectation is for Kwan. He's currently hitting .350/.879. As a rookie he hit .298/.772. He's made some changes in his approach that are working really well, but I don't think anybody is a .350 hitter. But I think he's definitely a better hitter than he was as a rookie.

Last year Josh Naylor hit .308/.842. This year in the early going he's at .282/.915. I don't think he's outperforming expectations. He's 26 and his OPS has been climbing steadily for four years. In fact, it's crazy how consistent the increases have been.

2021 to 2022: +71 points
2022 to 2023: +71 points
2023 to 2024: +73 points

His OPS has gone from .700 to .771 to .842 to .915. He's still getting better.

David Fry is definitely over expectation at .311/.917; he hit .238/.734 last year. But as late as July 23 he was hitting .303/.827 before pulling a hamstring which kept him out a month. After returning he hit .176. He won't finish this year over .900 but I think he's much better than .238/.734, especially if he's spotted mostly against lefties.

I think it's extremely encouraging that the Guardians are 4th in runs per game (after last night) and nobody is really far over expectation and a lot of guys, including Jose, are actually well under.

 

[CDAV45]

I apologize. I won't say anything else about Floreal until he has another 837 at-bats. If all goes well I might be able to say something relevant late next year or in sometime in 2026.

I'm not sure what you meant by saying that looking at things from an analytical point of view eliminates superior players and favors mediocre players, but I'll defer to your superior wisdom on that.

The analytical comment wasn't aimed at you Wham, but there are several around here that show no patience with flawed, high upside players like Florial. They'd rather go with the lower ceiling player that is a safer bet. They use developmental data to draw conclusions which basically disregards the developmental part. There is some projection involved and I'm not sure that can be quantified accurately. That comes down to physical and mental attributes.

Florial is 26 yrs old. He's had exactly 163 ML AB over 5 seasons so yes, if he's going to be on the roster then some patience is due. Then again, that might not be the case if you favor players like Freeman, Brennan, Laureano and Rocchio over players like Florial and Arias. If that's the case then you probably prefer to just cut both of them. It's one or the other because they will not come close to their potential in part time roles and you cannot win with mediocre talent as has been amply demonstrated by this lineup for years now.

Bottomline, if we hope to compete with the better teams in the league come playoff time we'll need to be better. We need guys like Florial, Arias, Manzardo, DeLauter, Rodriguez, Martinez and Brito to reach their potential as players. We need some SP depth too, but that hasn't been a problem historically with this organization.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The analytical comment wasn't aimed at you Wham, but there are several around here that show no patience with flawed, high upside players like Florial. They'd rather go with the lower ceiling player that is a safer bet. They use developmental data to draw conclusions which basically disregards the developmental part. There is some projection involved and I'm not sure that can be quantified accurately. That comes down to physical and mental attributes.

Florial is 26 yrs old. He's had exactly 163 ML AB over 5 seasons so yes, if he's going to be on the roster then some patience is due. Then again, that might not be the case if you favor players like Freeman, Brennan, Laureano and Rocchio over players like Florial and Arias. If that's the case then you probably prefer to just cut both of them. It's one or the other because they will not come close to their potential in part time roles and you cannot win with mediocre talent as has been amply demonstrated by this lineup for years now.

Bottomline, if we hope to compete with the better teams in the league come playoff time we'll need to be better. We need guys like Florial, Arias, Manzardo, DeLauter, Rodriguez, Martinez and Brito to reach their potential as players. We need some SP depth too, but that hasn't been a problem historically with this organization.

Yes, I also believe in going with the high ceiling guys until they prove they can't get there. I'm starting to think players like Freeman, Brennan, and Rocchio are going to end up as mediocre major league players. Bimbo thinks Rocchio's deveopment has stalled and he isn't doing anything at the major league level.

Laureano has not been good since 2019 and he claims he's healthy now.

I agree Florial and Arias need to play as much as possible. I'm intrigued with Florial, but I'm not buying in yet. One, I'm skeptical that tall left-handed power hitters with a lot of swing and miss will ever be any good. Bradley Zimmer and Bobby Bradley did that to me along with Will Benson and Nolan Jones (currently hitting .214 and .170). Two, the Yankees gave Florial away for nothing after eight years in their system. I don't think the Yankees are stupid.

 

[CDAV45]

Yes, I also believe in going with the high ceiling guys until they prove they can't get there. I'm starting to think players like Freeman, Brennan, and Rocchio are going to end up as mediocre major league players. Bimbo thinks Rocchio's deveopment has stalled and he isn't doing anything at the major league level.

Laureano has not been good since 2019 and he claims he's healthy now.

I agree Florial and Arias need to play as much as possible. I'm intrigued with Florial, but I'm not buying in yet. One, I'm skeptical that tall left-handed power hitters with a lot of swing and miss will ever be any good. Bradley Zimmer and Bobby Bradley did that to me along with Will Benson and Nolan Jones (currently hitting .214 and .170). Two, the Yankees gave Florial away for nothing after eight years in their system. I don't think the Yankees are stupid.

We're seeing eye to eye on this I'd say.

Laureano is of no use and neither is Hedges outside of leadership supposedly.

While I want to see guys like Florial and Arias given extended opportunities, I am by no means suggesting that they are sure things at all. I just want to make that clear to everyone.

Zimmer's chances dwindled with his injuries and Bradley couldn't beat the odds. Benson and Jones have gotten off to rough starts and there is a lot of baseball remaining. Turns out Jones is hurt so that might have contributed to his poor performance.

Do you think Florial would have been traded if they didn't pick up Soto? It's hard to compare what a team with unlimited monies does to a team with very little spending room. One can afford to be impatient and just sign the best players available while the other must develop their own and take chances on flawed players with upside. It's the nature of the beast.

 

[Anglefan]

move Josh back to RF, but with instructions to play deep and not to try to field any bloops.

Instructions that he would almost certainly not take headed of

 

[KluberSociety]

Two, the Yankees gave Florial away for nothing after eight years in their system. I don't think the Yankees are stupid.

Just a few months ago it felt like some at RCF were hopeful that Cody Morris could be a starter. This isn't directed at you, just the overall tendency to underestimate what it takes to be a successful MLB starter.

And a big HELL NO to Naylor in OF again. I don't think he's sure to injure himself or anything, but not only is he bad at it but he's become pretty good at 1B and we need his bat and health as much as possible.

 

[33Y0]

From Zach Meisel:

Aside from Kwan, Naylor and Fry, no hitter has outperformed expectations, yet the club ranks fifth in the majors in runs per game.

I'm not sure what a reasonable expectation is for Kwan. He's currently hitting .350/.879. As a rookie he hit .298/.772. He's made some changes in his approach that are working really well, but I don't think anybody is a .350 hitter. But I think he's definitely a better hitter than he was as a rookie.

Last year Josh Naylor hit .308/.842. This year in the early going he's at .282/.915. I don't think he's outperforming expectations. He's 26 and his OPS has been climbing steadily for four years. In fact, it's crazy how consistent the increases have been.

2021 to 2022: +71 points
2022 to 2023: +71 points
2023 to 2024: +73 points

His OPS has gone from .700 to .771 to .842 to .915. He's still getting better.

David Fry is definitely over expectation at .311/.917; he hit .238/.734 last year. But as late as July 23 he was hitting .303/.827 before pulling a hamstring which kept him out a month. After returning he hit .176. He won't finish this year over .900 but I think he's much better than .238/.734, especially if he's spotted mostly against lefties.

I think it's extremely encouraging that the Guardians are 4th in runs per game (after last night) and nobody is really far over expectation and a lot of guys, including Jose, are actually well under.

Jose has been the most frustrating to me to open the season. Right now, he's chasing a career high number of balls outside the zone (38.9%, previous high of 32.3% in 2022, career average 27.6%). He's also just swinging a lot more in general right now.. 53.0% (previous career high: 47.6% in 2014, career average 43.4%).

 

[Criznit]

Just a few months ago it felt like some at RCF were hopeful that Cody Morris could be a starter. This isn't directed at you, just the overall tendency to underestimate what it takes to be a successful MLB starter.

And a big HELL NO to Naylor in OF again. I don't think he's sure to injure himself or anything, but not only is he bad at it but he's become pretty good at 1B and we need his bat and health as much as possible.

Cody Morris is definitely not "nothing". Converted to relief by NYY we might have done the same thing. He's walking people a lot more the last couple years, but if he can get back on track/closer to previous results? I do not see why he couldn't make and perform in a MLB bullpen.

 

[CDAV45]

Just a few months ago it felt like some at RCF were hopeful that Cody Morris could be a starter. This isn't directed at you, just the overall tendency to underestimate what it takes to be a successful MLB starter.

And a big HELL NO to Naylor in OF again. I don't think he's sure to injure himself or anything, but not only is he bad at it but he's become pretty good at 1B and we need his bat and health as much as possible.

We also need Manzardo's bat in the lineup as well.

Having said that, Josh isn't going back to the OF. His body isn't prepared to do that, but if it were he can play a more than acceptable corner OF.