chiefwahoo
Golden State blew a 3-1 lead in the 2016 Finals
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New England @ Indianapolis, Sunday 6:30 PM on CBS
Manning vs. Brady
Dungy vs. Belichick
Vinatieri vs. his old team
This has all the makings of a great AFC Championship game so let's start the wagering. Most places have the Colts favored by 3 at home but I set it at 3.5 here since we don't like pushes.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/scouting?gameId=270121011
Manning vs. Brady
Dungy vs. Belichick
Vinatieri vs. his old team
This has all the makings of a great AFC Championship game so let's start the wagering. Most places have the Colts favored by 3 at home but I set it at 3.5 here since we don't like pushes.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/scouting?gameId=270121011
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Indy defense peaking at right time
Why To Watch:
After defeating the Ravens in Baltimore 15-6 on Saturday, the Colts will have an extra day to prepare for this championship game and mend what ails them. Although it is just one day, the Colts will need the rest as they prepare for their third playoff game. This is also New England's third playoff game, and it is a familiar matchup. The Colts played at New England in Week 9, winning 27-20, and these teams' playoff battles are well-chronicled.
The Patriots were outplayed for most of the game against the Chargers, but they showed great resilience to leave San Diego with a victory. Surprisingly, the Colts have allowed just 14 combined points in their two playoff victories. It certainly can be argued that the Colts have been winning in the playoffs in spite of QB Peyton Manning's performances, while Patriots QB Tom Brady is an absolutely amazing 12-1 in the playoffs for his career. This familiar matchup between the best quarterbacks in the game could be the defining game of Manning's career.
When the Patriots have the ball
Rushing: In a drastic contradiction from the regular season, Indianapolis' defense has allowed just 63.5 yards per game and 3.4 yards per rush in the playoffs. After a horrendous regular season stopping the run, the Colts' defense shut down Larry Johnson in the wild-card round and gave up just 83 rushing yards to the Ravens in the divisional round. Baltimore did have success on the ground but didn't stick with it; safety Bob Sanders had eight tackles and has clearly been a difference-maker in the playoffs since returning from a knee injury that sidelined him for much of the regular season. The Colts' defense funnels running backs in Sanders' direction, and he uses his outstanding tackling and playmaking skills to clean up. Rob Morris has also been a difference-maker against the run after being inserted as a starter at outside linebacker from his usual reserve role in the middle.
New England ran for only 51 yards in San Diego, but its two-headed attack of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney should provide plenty of problems for the Colts' interior run defense. The Patriots can attack a defense in many ways, but we expect them to hammer Indianapolis up the middle with both runners. When these teams met in November, the Patriots gashed Indianapolis for 148 yards on the ground. Although the Colts' defense deserves credit for its recent success, this area of the game favors New England. Look for the Patriots to exploit this advantage on the road to keep Manning watching from the sidelines.
Passing: The Colts play their Tampa 2 defense and do a great job of keeping everything in front of them. They are not exclusively a Cover 2 team, however, and will use a Cover 3 shell when they drop Sanders into the box in run support, which should happen often Sunday. Indianapolis also rarely brings pressure from the back seven and is not an overly complicated defensive team to diagnose. The Colts are designed to not allow big plays, and Brady will have to stay patient and not force the ball downfield. Indianapolis held the Ravens to just 173 yards through the air and picked QB Steve McNair off twice. Brady threw three interceptions in San Diego, but he was outstanding when it mattered most and led his team to victory in a big game once again.
Brady gets a ton out of his ordinary receiving corps. In San Diego, Jabar Gaffney caught 10 balls for 103 yards, but his longest reception went for just 17 yards. The week before, Gaffney caught eight passes for 104 yards. Gaffney caught only 11 passes in the regular season. The Patriots also will feature their tight ends more than usual in this matchup, and they could cause problems in the middle of the field. RDE Dwight Freeney has been outstanding in the playoffs. He wreaked havoc against the Chiefs and often demanded added attention from Baltimore, despite lining up against star LT Jonathan Ogden. Now Pats LOT Matt Light draws the assignment of slowing down Freeney. Light has been a major liability in pass coverage and has been manhandled by elite defensive linemen such as Jason Taylor.
When the Colts have the ball
Rushing: LaDainian Tomlinson racked up 123 yards on the ground against the Patriots, with most of that yardage coming on the edges. The Patriots' defense is difficult to run on up the middle. New England's front three are outstanding at controlling the line of scrimmage and dominating the trenches. It should overpower the Colts' offensive line for the most part and plug the middle of the field. Although that clearly works in New England's favor, the Colts' primary run is their stretch play, which is a slow-developing, wide running play that allows their ballcarriers to pick and choose their holes. Joseph Addai has become very effective and shows great patience with this play, and this perimeter run could expose the Patriots' greatest defensive weakness -- team speed.
Although the Ravens were all over Indianapolis' stretch play last week, we expect the Colts to have more success with it against New England. Addai is now the Colts' starting running back and he has done a fine job in that role, but Indianapolis has also gotten good production from Dominic Rhodes in relief. Indianapolis has shown impressive physicality in its running game of late, something it is rarely given credit for, but the Patriots are still more physical than the Colts.
Passing: Manning is a master at diagnosing what a defense is trying to take away and exploiting what is given to him. He makes everyone around him a better player and gets the ball in his playmakers' hands in a position to utilize their talents. In Week 9, Manning threw for 326 yards at New England. Manning threw two interceptions Saturday, and he has five in the two playoff games. He was just 15-of-30 for 170 yards but orchestrated the Colts' offense down the stretch efficiently. He will face an extremely well-coached 3-4 defense this week with a lot of moving parts, and he certainly cannot afford to turn the ball over. The Colts' pass protection, which led the league in sacks allowed for the season, allowed only one sack to a tough Baltimore defense. Manning helps this group by buying time in the pocket with precise movements to sidestep the rush, while getting the ball out of his hands quickly and decisively.
Of course, the Patriots will throw some blitz packages at Manning that he has not seen on film. CB Asante Samuel is having an outstanding season but will have his hands full with Marvin Harrison most of the day. New England's cornerbacks will need help with Harrison and Reggie Wayne -- the best duo of wideouts in football today. TE Dallas Clark and Addai benefit from all the attention the Colts' wide receivers receive on the outside. The Patriots have been susceptible to allowing big games receiving from running backs out of the backfield, and Addai is effective in this capacity. Manning is a master of selling play-action. If the Colts can establish a solid running game, expect him to use this skill along with pump fakes to take some shots deep downfield when they draw single coverage.
