Cavs interested in Aldridge

[Tornicade]

That's uncalled for. As someone who looks to use statistics in arguments, you should not diminish your argument with ad hominems.



With respect, you are misusing the Wins Produced statistic. You are comparing two players with very different styles, on very different teams. You are comparing an offensively-gifted player in LaMarcus Aldridge who is a top scoring option on his team (@ 20PTS/38M) vs Tristan Thompson who is still trying to find an offensive game of his own.

However, the statistical flaw is that you are ignoring the input variables into the Wins Produced function. The components themselves demonstrate that the model is not applicable to your comparison. LMA's Per 48 stats compared to Tristan's aren't even close. Tristan gets you 2 additional rebounds at the cost of several turnovers, an assist, and 8 PTS. He has a higher FG%, but to suggest that would translate into 20+ PTS/48 misses the mark, I think.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, you're ignoring the team component to the metric, i.e., the strength (and more precisely, the needs) of the team as it relates to the player being measured. Tristan's Wins Produced will be higher on a #3 lottery seeded team than it would be on a mid-tier team. This can be evidenced anecodatally by looking at players who change teams with vastly different surrounding talent pools, as an example, LeBron James: his best year with respect to Wins Produced, was 08-09; however, after leaving Cleveland for Miami and playing with Wade and Bosh, even though his game has reached unprecedented levels, his Wins Produced has still not reached his 08-09 season. Why? Because he's playing with Wade and Bosh, who bring his share of wins down.

Concisely, if you swapped Tristan Thompson and LaMarcus Aldridge, Tristan's wins would decrease and LaMarcus' would increase. That is somewhat readily apparent, prima facie, by simply looking at the players actually play basketball, their individual (less abstract) statistical output, and their team performance.

Simply put, when you make a claim that Tristan is "better than LaMarcus Aldridge already..." you really need to dig a little deeper than quoting what amounts to a misused statistic. However, I would be willing to entertain an argument that Tristan will be better than LMA, because that is entirely possible. If that's what you meant, then I understand if you mispoke or were misunderstood.

Oh, and FWIW, I have a degree in Mathematics.

I agree. statistics and rating systems are tools for analysis not Analysis for tools

 

[gourimoko]

I agree. statistics and rating systems are tools for analysis not Analysis for tools

Yes, precisely.. I should've just said that. Brevity is not my strong suit.

 

[Cavatt]

I'd be more open to this trade than the Kevin Love one because I think Aldridge would play more in the system than Love, who I feel is a bit of a Chucker. Are there going to be enough touches for everyone? TT is going to be an elite rebounder, so he is going to contribute no matter how many touches he gets, and they will be able to run the offense through him very soon I think. He is passing out of the double, which alone was a big development. He also has good court vision which can be devastating when trying to guard a big man. This is an area of his game he should really focus on.

Aldridge on the other had gets you good rebounding and would be a deadly pick and roll/pop player with both Kyrie and Dion. I think his defense is suspect at times, but I think his potential in that area is much better than Love's.

 

[randymoss1881]

Portland will not trade LA period. There played great basketball when there lineup was together and it shows with there record being that good when you have a bench like they did. With cap space they are just gonna get a center and star filling in role players (3) for the bench and they become a top 6 team in the west