I keep saying I’m not going to by into this team anymore....but here we are again. Damnit!!
10-6 and we are a wildcard team.
When's the last time a team has gone 10-6 and made the playoffs with a bottom-five defense? Our D was 24th overall last year. With some personnel loses and injuries they've likely gotten worse.
There were no playoff teams below the Browns in the ratings. Seattle (21), Houston (22), and Tennessee (18). For these three teams offensively, Seattle was #4, Tennessee was #5, and Houston #17.
For the rest of the playoff teams defensively: NE (1), SF (2), MIN (4), BAL (5), BUF (7), NO (8), PHI (12), KC (14), GB (15).
It's pretty clear that to make the playoffs in the first place, you have to have a top half of the league defense. Seattle and Tennessee compensated by having elite offenses. Houston is seemingly a total aberration and with below league average defense and offense. If either the defense or the offense finished in the top 16 overall, that would be a huge shock and massive improvement overall. I think the offense can do it, but unless they make a leap into the top 5, it's likely not going to be enough to put the Browns in the playoffs.
Looking at the schedule, I have a tough time getting to 10 wins. I'd say the Browns have to go 4-2 in the division to have a chance. That would likely mean splitting with BAL and PIT and sweeping CIN.
Out of the rest of the schedule, while I don't think there are many games that stand out as being a definite loss, there also aren't many pushover games either. Grouped teams based on abilities to help make things easier (predicted record in parenthesis):
- Definite loses: TEN (0-1)
- Probable loses: PHI, HOU, DAL, IND (1-3)
- Even Matchups: NYJ, LV, NYG (2-1)
- Should win: JAX, WSH (1-1)
So if they go 4-2 in the division, with this scenario they go 8-8 overall. Seems about right to me. I also think they'll be 3-3 in the division and not 4-2, which would have them at 7-9.
Browns have major questions at the two most important positions on offense, QB and LT, a new coach, and a third new offensive scheme in as many years.
The defense was not very good last year, has a new coach, is dealing with some pretty key injuries, and have what is likely the worst linebacking core in the league. There's just too many question marks to put this team over .500. Even if the answers to all of those questions are positive, there's a very good chance the teams still doesn't get past .500.