Collin Sexton | The Young Bull

[I'mWithDan]

Yes, for sure. He needs a lot of work in a lot of areas, but you specifically said that his defense puts limits on his ceiling.

We have nowhere near enough information to start making claims about his ceiling. It’s still possible that he could bust and never improve all that much, or he could be the next Dipo/Westbrook. It’s WAY too early to tell.

So far, tho, we are seeing more positives than negatives, I think.

I agree with this. I also use BBREF to check how I keep rookie seasons in perspective.....as we all tend to have unrealistic expectations.....especially exiting a window of championship basketball. It's (BBREF) a nice bench mark to see how he grades out with his peers as the season presses forward.

Currently, he's 16% of the way through his rookie season.....in 26 minutes, he's putting up:

12 PPG, 2.6 REB, 2.3 AST, shooting 42.5% from the floor.

Since 2000, qualifying rookie guards who hit those marks (12/2/2/42%):

Jason Richardson
Dwayne Wade
Chris Paul
Brandon Roy
OJ Mayo
Eric Gordon
Derrick Rose
Darren Collison
Steph Curry
Damian Lillard
Devin Booker
Donnovan Mitchell

I mean......pretty decent list to be on. I have no idea if he develops in to someone as good as any of those guys but expectations just seem so unrealistic for him.

He also has put up really nice numbers in his small sample size as a starter (3 games):

17 PPG, 3.7 REB, 2.7 AST, 45.8% from the field.

It's encouraging that his PER 36 scoring rate has translated to that increased minutes load (it's even a tick above).

Collin is performing really well for a rookie NBA guard....but I think most judge him on a curve vs. established vets at the position. He's only 19....he's hardly what he will be 2, 3, 4, 5 years from now.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Yes, for sure. He needs a lot of work in a lot of areas, but you specifically said that his defense puts limits on his ceiling.

We have nowhere near enough information to start making claims about his ceiling. It’s still possible that he could bust and never improve all that much, or he could be the next Dipo/Westbrook. It’s WAY too early to tell.

So far, tho, we are seeing more positives than negatives, I think.

I really didn't say it puts a limit on his ceiling; I was more speculating whether it really puts a ceiling on him. We don't know shit after all. Like if we talk about what he can become, he is going to need to improve ALOT in those areas, and I was wondering if it is fixable, and if it is not, then how good does he need to become offensively to offset that. Got me, kinda?

His ability to handle screens is not set in stone. In theory it can be fixable. I was just wondering if his ablity to contest inside and on the perimeter was fixable because of his size and even his technique (which is more fixable compared to size).

We are definitely seeing improvements on the offensive end. No doubt.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I agree with this. I also use BBREF to check how I keep rookie seasons in perspective.....as we all tend to have unrealistic expectations.....especially exiting a window of championship basketball. It's (BBREF) a nice bench mark to see how he grades out with his peers as the season presses forward.

Currently, he's 16% of the way through his rookie season.....in 26 minutes, he's putting up:

12 PPG, 2.6 REB, 2.3 AST, shooting 42.5% from the floor.

Since 2000, qualifying rookie guards who hit those marks (12/2/2/42%):

Jason Richardson
Dwayne Wade
Chris Paul
Brandon Roy
OJ Mayo
Eric Gordon
Derrick Rose
Darren Collison
Steph Curry
Damian Lillard
Devin Booker
Donnovan Mitchell

I mean......pretty decent list to be on. I have no idea if he develops in to someone as good as any of those guys but expectations just seem so unrealistic for him.

He also has put up really nice numbers in his small sample size as a starter (3 games):

17 PPG, 3.7 REB, 2.7 AST, 45.8% from the field.

It's encouraging that his PER 36 scoring rate has translated to that increased minutes load (it's even a tick above).

Collin is performing really well for a rookie NBA guard....but I think most judge him on a curve vs. established vets at the position. He's only 19....he's hardly what he will be 2, 3, 4, 5 years from now.

Again, his offensive numbers are insignicant to me in this discussion. I was strictly talking about the other end of the floor.


Edit: Also, what happens if you add his low stl numbers to the equation?

 

[Cavatt]

Don't know. I think his defense is really bad even for a rookie.

Don't really understand the bad habits argument. Do you think it impacts his ability to get over screens and contest shot well( he contests shot, but it's ineffective)? He gives up a ton of room for players coming off screens...they find themselves wide open. Still, it's a better shot for us when you compare it to the ridiculous switching that we had before that led to easy post ups and corner 3's. I would gladly take an off the dribble/off-screen/spot up 3pt above the break shot. It's just that optimally I would want him to not be that bad at it because when we face good shooting teams we will get burned, and quickly.

I dunno. The only good rookie defenders I have seen are wings with length that were known for it in college. Kawhi was pretty good, Courtney Lee springs to mind with Magic in 09. Unless you came in as a touted defnder, which even those guys usually stink, rookies are routinely horrible and even cruddy vets eyes light up as they put up numbers on rookies.

Turnovers
Defense
and excessive fouling are areas most rookies who make it improve by leaps and bounds. Collin was especially horrible in Lues system and now he is just bad in Drew's.

Collin has the wingspan and reach of a taller guy. His extension on the scoop and missed oop were actually pretty impressive. He will be able to contest provided he works on it. I am slightly more worried about seeing him sort of let guys get a dunk instead of hustling back. I think he could get back on some outlets that he doesn't.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Again, his offensive numbers are insignicant to me in this discussion. I was strictly talking about the other end of the floor.

Edit: Also, what happens if you add his low stl numbers to the equation?

It's really hard to benchmark defense for rookie guards.....they are just all over the map.

The only guys on that list who have really excelled in those areas as rookies are Chris Paul and Steph (150+). And Mitchell was good (110+ steals).

Most other guys are in the 60-90 range....1 STL ish a game. Devin Booker was the outlier in the 40's....which is the pace Collin is on.

BLK + STL you see guys like Wade, Mitchell and Eric Gordon move up that list.

I think Collin can be an adequate defender at the next level just through good coaching. I just don't think we stress or rep coverages.....at least not to the degree necessary. But a guy who is athletic and competitive can be a good defender in the right system. He's never going to block shots but Chris Paul has 100 career blocks in 14 NBA seasons and has been a really good defender. I don't think Collin has CP defense in him (CP3 had great per 36 STL numbers) but he should be far better than he has been with a competent system and a little staff emphasis on it.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

I dunno. The only good rookie defenders I have seen are wings with length that were known for it in college. Kawhi was pretty good, Courtney Lee springs to mind with Magic in 09. Unless you came in as a touted defnder, which even those guys usually stink, rookies are routinely horrible and even cruddy vets eyes light up as they put up numbers on rookies.

Turnovers
Defense
and excessive fouling are areas most rookies who make it improve by leaps and bounds. Collin was especially horrible in Lues system and now he is just bad in Drew's.

Collin has the wingspan and reach of a taller guy. His extension on the scoop and missed oop were actually pretty impressive. He will be able to contest provided he works on it. I am slightly more worried about seeing him sort of let guys get a dunk instead of hustling back. I think he could get back on some outlets that he doesn't.

Collin has t he wingspan, but his reach is small. it's pretty apparent.

I mean, SGA is having a heck of a season defensively. He is a rookie.

What i'm really saying here is that length is really important for a guy that doesn't have the quick hands to generate high rate of steals(hasn't been in college and so far in the NBA). He is either going to need to limit his matchup/players he is up against to lower than their average FG%, or he is going to have to generate high rate of steals in order to be good, no?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Collin has t he wingspan, but his reach is small. it's pretty apparent.

I mean, SGA is having a heck of a season defensively. He is a rookie.

What i'm really saying here is that length is really important for a guy that doesn't have the quick hands to generate high rate of steals(hasn't been in college and so far in the NBA). He is either going to need to limit his matchup/players he is up against to lower than their average FG%, or he is going to have to generate high rate of steals in order to be good, no?

You can still be a low STL rate player and be a quality perimeter defender.

Most people would be shocked that Patrick Beverly (very similar profile) only has a career PER 36 STL rate of 1.6. He even came in to the league as a more mature guy physically (24) and took time to edge his steal rate consistently upward with his load increase. 1.6 isn't bad, most would deem it good.....but it's certainly not the 2+ you see from elite guys like Paul or prime Tony Allen.

Terry Rozier also has a pedestrian per 36 steal rate (0.9) but is a low + to neutral on the defensive end. Rozier might be the good comp for what Collin can be. He's still going to get bum hunted by elite scorers but if Collin progresses as an offensive player and can get in to the on-ball ballpark of someone like Rozier, that is a pretty damn good player.

 

[Cavatt]

You can still be a low STL rate player and be a quality perimeter defender.

Most people would be shocked that Patrick Beverly (very similar profile) only has a career PER 36 STL rate of 1.6. He even came in to the league as a more mature guy physically (24) and took time to edge his steal rate consistently upward with his load increase. 1.6 isn't bad, most would deem it good.....but it's certainly not the 2+ you see from elite guys like Paul or prime Tony Allen.

Terry Rozier also has a pedestrian per 36 steal rate (0.9) but is a low + to neutral on the defensive end. Rozier might be the good comp for what Collin can be. He's still going to get bum hunted by elite scorers but if Collin progresses as an offensive player and can get in to the on-ball ballpark of someone like Rozier, that is a pretty damn good player.

This is interesting. I saw once that Bev gets a lot of deflections. I have seen this from Collin too. He is decent at swarming the ball handler and coming up with the bobbled ball to go the other way. He isn't often credited with the steal because often someone else picks up the ball. I don't feel his hand's aren't quick like Sir Dom says.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

This is interesting. I saw once that Bev gets a lot of deflections. I have seen this from Collin too. He is decent at swarming the ball handler and coming up with the bobbled ball to go the other way. He isn't often credited with the steal because often someone else picks up the ball. I don't feel his hand's aren't quick like Sir Dom says.

disregard the quick hands. It's not entirely true.

The issue is probably more about the defensive IQ. He doesn't play the passing lanes and he doesn't understand angles very well.

 

[Cavatt]

disregard the quick hands. It's not entirely true.

The issue is probably more about the defensive IQ. He doesn't play the passing lanes and he doesn't understand angles very well.

That I agree with and it would help him driving to the basket too. I'll just keep saying the same thing. He is raw, he needs reps. I am very pleased that he is putting up good numbers starting and his decision making already looks a lot better.

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

That I agree with and it would help him driving to the basket too. I'll just keep saying the same thing. He is raw, he needs reps. I am very pleased that he is putting up good numbers starting and his decision making already looks a lot better.

He's definitely growing. There's no reason (besides injury) for him to not start for the rest of the year. He needs the minutes.

I get the concern on defense. He has the tools to be an above average defender. The question is will the IQ on D come along.

I think an underlying issue we have is the culture of defense. Kyrie also had all the tools to be a good or even great defender, yet things have never come together on that end.

Do we have the right teachers? Do we need a vet guard to come in to help teach Sexton (this is a place where getting a guy like Beverly would be a benefit as a mentor)? That really goes across the board on this team as it develops and as they add players over the next few years. We need a balanced offensive attack. We need to rebound. But we also need to play good D and aim to be in the upper half of the league on that front.

Sexton can potentially help on that side of the ball, but the Cavs need to be sure they have the right people around him to teach and encourage him. He's not a natural defender like some guys are, so he needs the right mentors on that side of the ball so he can grow into a good defender. He doesn't need to be the best in the league, but if he's above average at the position and is able to continue to grow his offensive skillset, he will be a very nice guy to have at the 1 long term.

 

[Cavatt]

He's definitely growing. There's no reason (besides injury) for him to not start for the rest of the year. He needs the minutes.

I get the concern on defense. He has the tools to be an above average defender. The question is will the IQ on D come along.

I think an underlying issue we have is the culture of defense. Kyrie also had all the tools to be a good or even great defender, yet things have never come together on that end.

Do we have the right teachers? Do we need a vet guard to come in to help teach Sexton (this is a place where getting a guy like Beverly would be a benefit as a mentor)? That really goes across the board on this team as it develops and as they add players over the next few years. We need a balanced offensive attack. We need to rebound. But we also need to play good D and aim to be in the upper half of the league on that front.

Sexton can potentially help on that side of the ball, but the Cavs need to be sure they have the right people around him to teach and encourage him. He's not a natural defender like some guys are, so he needs the right mentors on that side of the ball so he can grow into a good defender. He doesn't need to be the best in the league, but if he's above average at the position and is able to continue to grow his offensive skillset, he will be a very nice guy to have at the 1 long term.

Above average on d is something I would be really happy with. There are only really a handful of good pg defenders in the league, and most of them are wing sized.

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

Above average on d is something I would be really happy with. There are only really a handful of good pg defenders in the league, and most of them are wing sized.

Frankly, even average would be acceptable. I don't expect a guy that can switch 1-5. It'd be nice if he could switch off onto one of the wings and do a decent job, but I'm not counting on that.

For a guy like Sexton, a culture with a defensive mindset and proper mentorship through coaches and/or players is essential.

We never had that when Kyrie was picked and by the time 2014 rolled around, it was too late.

Sexton is 19. We've probably got about three seasons before he is what he is on D. The Cavs need to do everything they can to grow that D mentality and identify players that hunger to be successful on both sides of the ball.

I guess Nwaba can be a part of that and can help mentor Sexton on that side. Not a PG but he's a plus defender that understands the tricks to be a good defender. It's not always about measurables.

That's also why Nwaba needs to play A LOT and do so next to Sexton. Great thing is Nwaba made his own case last night. While his upside is certainly limited, effort guys like Nwaba can change the mindset of teams. Same goes for a guy like Delly - who really might be a good guy to think about bringing back to be Sexton's backup, even at his higher price. He can instill the mindset of effort and also show how a guy that is not the most gifted physically can be a real nuisance on D.

 

[avs2000]

Frankly, even average would be acceptable. I don't expect a guy that can switch 1-5. It'd be nice if he could switch off onto one of the wings and do a decent job, but I'm not counting on that.

For a guy like Sexton, a culture with a defensive mindset and proper mentorship through coaches and/or players is essential.

We never had that when Kyrie was picked and by the time 2014 rolled around, it was too late.

Sexton is 19. We've probably got about three seasons before he is what he is on D. The Cavs need to do everything they can to grow that D mentality and identify players that hunger to be successful on both sides of the ball.

I guess Nwaba can be a part of that and can help mentor Sexton on that side. Not a PG but he's a plus defender that understands the tricks to be a good defender. It's not always about measurables.

That's also why Nwaba needs to play A LOT and do so next to Sexton. Great thing is Nwaba made his own case last night. While his upside is certainly limited, effort guys like Nwaba can change the mindset of teams. Same goes for a guy like Delly - who really might be a good guy to think about bringing back to be Sexton's backup, even at his higher price. He can instill the mindset of effort and also show how a guy that is not the most gifted physically can be a real nuisance on D.

Would love to have delly and nwaba on this team

 

[Bulldog2Buckeye]

I feel like he’s been showing small, steady signs of improvement each game for the past two or so weeks. Obviously you’d hope and expect that to be the case for any rookie, but considering what we heard from the vets (aka Tristan and JR) it seemed like he might not care enough to improve