ESPN Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

[AM24]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=4856310

If a mod wants to paste this into the FanHouse rankings, that is fine, I just think Keith Law's, and eventually Kevin Goldstein's from BP deserve their own thread.

Law was definitely more optomistic about the Tribe's prospects that FanHouse was. I'd hedge between the two and say Law was a little too optomistic while FanHouse was a little too pessimistic.

Santana at #3 seems way too high. I think he's a great prospect and likely a future star but to have Santana above Desmond Jennings and Buster Posey I don't quite agree with.

Indians:

#3 Carlos Santana

Santana could be the Victor Martinez who can actually catch -- a switch-hitter with legitimate plate discipline and power with good receiving skills and an above-average arm. Cleveland swiped Santana from the Dodgers in the Casey Blake deal because they were willing to send L.A. the $2 million required to pay Blake's salary the rest of the way; in other words, they paid roughly what the ninth or 10th pick in a typical Rule 4 draft gets and ended up with the third-best prospect in baseball, a return on investment that Indians GM Mark Shapiro probably would take eight days a week. At the plate, Santana does start his hands a little deep, but he uses that to create great leverage in his swing as he explodes from his loaded position to the ball, with both hard contact and good loft when he squares a pitch up -- something he does quite often with an approach one Cleveland executive called "selective-aggressive," meaning Santana works the count but is more than happy to jump on a pitch he can hit early in an at-bat. He's a good athlete and runs well for a backstop. Santana has good hands behind the plate and arm strength, and he has shown progress in the one deficiency in his catching, his ability to handle a staff and work with pitchers. Lou Marson might be the starting catcher this April in Cleveland, but the job should be Santana's by September.

#26 Lonnie Chisenhall

Chisenhall has one of the best swings in the minors, a classic left-hander's swing with good hip rotation and raw power to right and right-center, which was already on display in the 22 home runs he hit between high-A and Double-A in 2009. He played the entire year at the age of 20 and showed the ability to make contact and control the bat in and around the zone, while his walk rate, through not great, was adequate and also reflected the ease with which he makes contact. A miscast shortstop in college, Chisenhall has settled in at third base and made his body leaner, giving him a good chance to stay at the position and even end up a little above-average there. Chisenhall's history, for those who don't know it, includes expulsion from South Carolina for his involvement in a burglary, for which he pleaded guilty and received probation, but he's kept his nose clean since signing with Cleveland and looks like he'll move up the ladder quickly.

#51 Hector Rondon

Rondon arrived on the scene at the 2008 Futures Game and followed up that strong season with an even better one despite two promotions that brought him to the cusp of the big leagues. He won't turn 22 for another month, but he has already shown an unusual ability (for someone so young) to pitch with his fastball, commanding it in and around the zone; it's 91-94 mph with great life. His best off-speed pitch is his changeup, above-average at times at 83-84 with good action and arm speed. He's still working on his slider, which remains inconsistent and often has an early break. His control is superb -- he's walked 101 in 480 pro innings, and just 29 in a full minor league season in 2009. He's shown that even on nights when he doesn't have the consistent slider or his best changeup, he can pitch with his fastball. Pitchers without great breaking balls often have lower ceilings as starters, but Rondon's ability to throw strikes, soak up innings and command the fastball give him a chance to exceed that limitation.

#71 Michael Brantley

Brantley has some of the best bat control of anyone on this list, with an improving eye at the plate and above-average speed that all plays up because of his feel for the game. He keeps his hands back incredibly well, letting the ball travel and then ripping the bat through the zone and showing the ability to shoot an outside pitch down the left field line. He can run but, more importantly, is a very high-percentage base stealer who reads pitchers well, stealing on over 81 percent of attempts in his minor league career. He's a good center fielder who could probably play center every day for a number of teams, but won't get that chance in Cleveland unless Grady Sizemore gets hurt again. Brantley's main liability is lack of power, which may limit his ability to play in an outfield corner unless he hits and reaches base at the top end of his abilities -- which he might very well do given his instincts and ability to square up so many pitches.

#100 Nick Hagadone

Hagadone had an eventful year in 2009, coming back from Tommy John surgery only to find himself traded 25 innings into his return in the Victor Martinez deal. He has an electric arm, sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper 90s with good life, and his slider is above-average to plus. Left-handed hitters are just 12-for-71 off Hagadone in pro ball, with no extra-base hits, and he's been a strong ground-ball pitcher across his three partial seasons in the minors. He drops in the rankings from last year because the probability of him holding up as a starter seems a lot lower now than it did last year, when he was still recovering from the surgery and we could talk about best-case scenarios for the recovery. In relief, however, a lefty with two plus pitches and a usable changeup is a potentially dominant weapon in any inning because of his ability to miss left-handed bats without a major platoon split.

 

[macbdog]

Desmond Jennings and Buster Posey are piles of puke compared to Carlos Santana. Suckiest bunch of sucks, frankly.:chuckles:

OK, my homerism is showing. I'm curious to see what he had to say regarding Posey, too. To me they are kind of a tossup- Posey gets more press b/c he was a college star and a high draft pick while Santana was a relatively late bloomer.

I'm glad someone once again pointed out the awesomeness of some of Brantley's #s. Yes, he still has that Juan Pierre potential due to his slap swing, but the clean walk rate and his outstanding SB %s still have me excited. If only Acta can convince Grady to move to LF...

 

[Chris]

Interesting to read, especially the position players.

 

[PIP]

I've got such a hard on for Mike Stanton.. I wish the Yankees could somehow get this guy and throw him in the outfield somewhere...

 

[AM24]

I'm curious to see what he had to say regarding Posey, too.

#4 Buster Posey

Posey reached the majors less than 14 months after signing his first pro contract on the strength of his bat and his advanced feel for catching, amazing for someone who only became a full-time catcher in 2007. Posey has a short, compact stroke with excellent bat control and sprays the field with line drives. He doesn't have much raw power on account of his size and the presence of just a little loft in his swing, but he makes up for it with good plate discipline, and he should post good on-base percentages in the majors. As a catcher, he has soft hands and good athleticism behind the dish with a plus arm, unsurprising for someone who was a part-time reliever in college. There's some concern about Posey's trouble catching better fastballs -- and Giants pitchers do bring the heat -- when he reached the majors, but it's possible that was merely exhaustion from Posey's first full pro season and rust from the fact that San Francisco brought him up only to have Bruce Bochy let him rot on the bench for three weeks. He could catch every day for the Giants right now if they weren't too busy throwing money at the likes of Bengie Molina.

I didn't mean the Posey comment as a knock on Santana. They're both great prospects, but I did think all analysts considered Posey a better prospect.

 

[AZ_]

I've got such a hard on for Mike Stanton.. I wish the Yankees could somehow get this guy and throw him in the outfield somewhere...

Trade them Randy Winn and a PTBNL, that seems fair to the average Yankee fan.

 

[Soda]

Only if we can actually keep these guys...

 

[Real Deal]

These guys will be future Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, in the near future. Or until we at least develop them into a stud ball player. You know were good for that. God i HATE the MLB.

 

[Real Deal]

I've got such a hard on for Mike Stanton.. I wish the Yankees could somehow get this guy and throw him in the outfield somewhere...

Lmao what more could a Yankee fan ask for? You only have 27 titles and a stud at every position on the field.

 

[7foot3]

If only Acta can convince Grady to move to LF...

Why would we want that? Sizemore, when healthy, is one of the better defensive CF-ers in the game, and more importantly, the best on this team.

 

[Damage]

Heyward is going to be a fucking stud. First time I'm seen him ranked #1 overall. Well worth it.

 

[Chris]

Why would we want that? Sizemore, when healthy, is one of the better defensive CF-ers in the game, and more importantly, the best on this team.

One of the best in the game.