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Hoping to snap a three-game losing streak the Cavs return home from their first west coast trip to face the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wolves are 5-8 and have lost 6 of their last 7 games. So far they have played 9 of their 13 games at home, so their 5-8 record is even less impressive. They are 1-3 on the road.
However, the Wolves should not be taken lightly. Their losses were to Memphis (9-4), Phoenix twice (8-4), Milwaukee (10-2), Utah (10-3), and San Antonio twice (6-7). Their schedule has been brutal.
Their wins were against OKC twice (5-7), Houston (2-10), the Lakers (2-10), and San Antonio (6-7). So they’re very consistent - they lose to the good teams and beat the bad teams. They’ve already played San Antonio three times, losing twice. The Spurs are 4-6 in their other games.
The Wolves rank 13th in points per game. They are the opposite of the Warriors, who are a long range shooting team. The Wolves attack the bucket, ranking 7th in points in the paint and 9th in percentage of points from 2-point shots. They are 24th in percentage of points from 3’s so it’s clear they like to take it inside. They’re only 23rd in 3-point accuracy.
Normally this would be to the Cavs’ advantage since they have Allen and Mobley to defend the paint, but Allen is questionable for tonight and so is Dean Wade. If Allen can’t go it will be very difficult for the Cavs to win, just like it was at the end of last year after he broke his finger.
The Wolves, who feature Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, take 38% of their shots at the rim, 6th highest percentage in the league. They make 67% of those shots, ranking 9th.
Defensively they are 22nd in points allowed per game so their defense is below average but not bad. I think on the whole the Wolves are an average team and looking at their record opponent by opponent you can see that they are somewhere in the middle.
One area they are vulnerable defensively is rebounding where they only rank 24th in defensive rebound percentage. You can get second chances against these guys, which surprises me considering their size up front. My guess is that Towns and Gobert go for a lot of blocks, leaving openings for offensive rebounds when they don’t get the block. Despite all that length their block percentage is 14th, right about average.
Another weak point is they rank 23rd in opponents’ 3-point percentage. The key for the Cavs offensively is to hit a high percentage of 3’s in their home arena and get a lot of offensive rebounds when they miss. Three-point buckets and second chance points are the order of the day. The Wolves are good at defending the paint (11th) and preventing buckets at the rim (9th).
This is a game where Garland, Cedi, Love, and LeVert need to be hitting 3’s.
Donovan Mitchell and Jarett Allen are listed as questionable. So is Dean Wade. If Allen and Wade are out the Cavs will be short-handed on the front line while having to deal with KAT and Gobert. KAT is 6’11”, 248, Gobert is 7’1”, and starting forward Jaden McDaniels is 6’9” (but only 185 pounds!). This is not the game for Allen and Wade to be out.
I can see Robin Lopez getting a lot of minutes tonight.
Anthony Edwards, the former #1 overall pick, is their leading scorer at 21.8 points, shooting 46% overall and 35% from deep. Towns is right behind at 20.7 points, 9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on 50% shooting. Gobert averages 14 points and 13 rebounds on 63%. He must get a lot of lobs. He’s probably the top rim protector in the league.
Former Buckeye D’Angelo Russell averages 13 points but is only shooting 38% and 30%. At 26 years old he’s already in his 8th NBA season. His shooting averages are down from his career numbers.
Former Cavalier Taurean Prince comes off the bench to average 7.5 points on 42% from deep. He's one of those guys who can come in and hit three 3's in a row and all of a sudden your 8-point lead is gone.
As a team the Wolves are only hitting 29.1% of their 3’s on the road, so for the Cavs it’s all about defending the paint and if the Wolves want to launch from deep let them have at it.
IMO it’s going to come down to defending the paint on defense while forcing some turnovers (the Wolves are 23rd in turnover percentage) and hitting 3’s on offense and getting offensive rebounds off the misses.
If Mitchell, Allen, and Wade are out it’s going to be very tough against a team with a lot of size and talent up front. LeVert will probably get the assignment on Edwards and that will be another key. Mobley probably guards KAT, who will try to muscle him into the paint.
The Cavs’ bench has been outscored 71-32 the last two games. If we have multiple starters out tonight the bench needs to step up.
Mobley is going to be challenged whether he guards Towns or Gobert. They will try to push him around to get to the rim.
Hopefully Darius Garland is fully recovered from his west coast illness and can get back to playing at an All-Star level which we haven’t seen since he dropped 29 and 24 points on Boston and the Lakers over a week ago. The last two games he’s 6-for-28 from the field.
However, the Wolves should not be taken lightly. Their losses were to Memphis (9-4), Phoenix twice (8-4), Milwaukee (10-2), Utah (10-3), and San Antonio twice (6-7). Their schedule has been brutal.
Their wins were against OKC twice (5-7), Houston (2-10), the Lakers (2-10), and San Antonio (6-7). So they’re very consistent - they lose to the good teams and beat the bad teams. They’ve already played San Antonio three times, losing twice. The Spurs are 4-6 in their other games.
The Wolves rank 13th in points per game. They are the opposite of the Warriors, who are a long range shooting team. The Wolves attack the bucket, ranking 7th in points in the paint and 9th in percentage of points from 2-point shots. They are 24th in percentage of points from 3’s so it’s clear they like to take it inside. They’re only 23rd in 3-point accuracy.
Normally this would be to the Cavs’ advantage since they have Allen and Mobley to defend the paint, but Allen is questionable for tonight and so is Dean Wade. If Allen can’t go it will be very difficult for the Cavs to win, just like it was at the end of last year after he broke his finger.
The Wolves, who feature Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, take 38% of their shots at the rim, 6th highest percentage in the league. They make 67% of those shots, ranking 9th.
Defensively they are 22nd in points allowed per game so their defense is below average but not bad. I think on the whole the Wolves are an average team and looking at their record opponent by opponent you can see that they are somewhere in the middle.
One area they are vulnerable defensively is rebounding where they only rank 24th in defensive rebound percentage. You can get second chances against these guys, which surprises me considering their size up front. My guess is that Towns and Gobert go for a lot of blocks, leaving openings for offensive rebounds when they don’t get the block. Despite all that length their block percentage is 14th, right about average.
Another weak point is they rank 23rd in opponents’ 3-point percentage. The key for the Cavs offensively is to hit a high percentage of 3’s in their home arena and get a lot of offensive rebounds when they miss. Three-point buckets and second chance points are the order of the day. The Wolves are good at defending the paint (11th) and preventing buckets at the rim (9th).
This is a game where Garland, Cedi, Love, and LeVert need to be hitting 3’s.
Donovan Mitchell and Jarett Allen are listed as questionable. So is Dean Wade. If Allen and Wade are out the Cavs will be short-handed on the front line while having to deal with KAT and Gobert. KAT is 6’11”, 248, Gobert is 7’1”, and starting forward Jaden McDaniels is 6’9” (but only 185 pounds!). This is not the game for Allen and Wade to be out.
I can see Robin Lopez getting a lot of minutes tonight.
Anthony Edwards, the former #1 overall pick, is their leading scorer at 21.8 points, shooting 46% overall and 35% from deep. Towns is right behind at 20.7 points, 9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on 50% shooting. Gobert averages 14 points and 13 rebounds on 63%. He must get a lot of lobs. He’s probably the top rim protector in the league.
Former Buckeye D’Angelo Russell averages 13 points but is only shooting 38% and 30%. At 26 years old he’s already in his 8th NBA season. His shooting averages are down from his career numbers.
Former Cavalier Taurean Prince comes off the bench to average 7.5 points on 42% from deep. He's one of those guys who can come in and hit three 3's in a row and all of a sudden your 8-point lead is gone.
As a team the Wolves are only hitting 29.1% of their 3’s on the road, so for the Cavs it’s all about defending the paint and if the Wolves want to launch from deep let them have at it.
IMO it’s going to come down to defending the paint on defense while forcing some turnovers (the Wolves are 23rd in turnover percentage) and hitting 3’s on offense and getting offensive rebounds off the misses.
If Mitchell, Allen, and Wade are out it’s going to be very tough against a team with a lot of size and talent up front. LeVert will probably get the assignment on Edwards and that will be another key. Mobley probably guards KAT, who will try to muscle him into the paint.
The Cavs’ bench has been outscored 71-32 the last two games. If we have multiple starters out tonight the bench needs to step up.
Mobley is going to be challenged whether he guards Towns or Gobert. They will try to push him around to get to the rim.
Hopefully Darius Garland is fully recovered from his west coast illness and can get back to playing at an All-Star level which we haven’t seen since he dropped 29 and 24 points on Boston and the Lakers over a week ago. The last two games he’s 6-for-28 from the field.
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