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Game Thread | Game #16 | Heat @ Cavs | Nov. 20, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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Back on the winning track the Cavaliers stay home for a game against the 7-9 Miami Heat. Actually, it’s more like what’s left of the Heat. This team has been so ravaged by injury that they only suited up seven players Friday against Washington. Naturally the game went to overtime with the Heat losing 107-106. The score of the overtime period was Washington 3, Miami 2.

Those seven Heat players must have been exhausted, especially 36-year-old Kyle Lowry, who played 51 minutes. Then they had to fly to Cleveland yesterday.

The Heat are 1-5 on the road. Their All-Star forward, Jimmy Butler, is out. He was averaging 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. Huge loss. Starting guard Tyler Herro (20 points, 6 assists) is out. Those are their two leading scorers. Victor Oladipo, another starter, has not played this year.

In addition they have five more players listed as questionable, including Bam Adebayo (19 points, 9 rebounds). If Bam can’t play they are missing their top three scorers and rebounders, plus two of their top three assist leaders.

The Cavs have their own issues as Kevin Love and Dean Wade are out, leaving Evan Mobley as the only healthy power forward. He’s going to have to play a lot of minutes.

The Cavs are extremely lucky with Butler being out right after LaMelo Ball was out for Charlotte on Friday.

I don’t see the point in getting into the numbers too much. Butler has played in 13 of their 16 games so their stats reflect his presence in the lineup. Adebayo has played 14 games and Herro 10, so the Heat team we see tonight may bear little resemblance to their actual team.

That being said, the Heat rank 17th in point differential with the Cavs ranking 4th. In terms of offensive and defensive efficiency the Heat rank 15th and 12th, respectively. Even with Butler, Herro, and Adebayo playing they’ve been an average team.

On Friday their two bench players were both undrafted rookies. But those two combined for 50 minutes, 18 points, and 13 rebounds. The Wizards had all their top players and were at home and the game still went to overtime even without Butler, Adebayo, Herro, Vincent, and Duncan Robinson. Just a tremendous gutsy performance by the seven available Heat players, only two of whom are regular starters. They just ran out of gas, scoring 18 points in the 4th quarter and overtime combined.

On paper the Cavs’ starting lineup is far superior even if Bam can play. But the same could be said for two nights ago when the Wizards had Bradley Beal, Porzingus, Kuzma, Morris, Avdija, and Hachimura. I’m sure the Wizards, playing at home against basically the Miami bench, came in overconfident. The Heat no-names scored 69 points in the first half and were up by 12 at halftime. Sound familiar?

I’m sure Bickerstaff will point that out as the Cavs try to continue their transition from fat cats back to junkyard dogs.

My game plan would be for Garland to try and run Lowry off his feet. The guy is 36 and played 51 minutes two nights ago. Make him constantly fight his way over screens and never let him rest. He was 8-for-23 against the Wizards but had 15 assists. They don’t have another point guard.

However, looking at the Heat-Wizards highlights it looks like the Heat played zone defense the entire game. I would, too, if I only had seven guys. This could be a great game for Garland, Mitchell, and Cedi to knock down a lot of 3’s. Beating the zone involves getting the ball to Allen or Mobley at the free throw line where they can shoot, drive, or distribute. I expect some high-low between Mobley and Allen tonight, especially since the Heat will only have one player over 6'7" on the floor at any time.

Against the zone the Cavs need to pass the ball a lot and force the undermanned Wizards to move continually. We stand and pass while they chase the ball back and forth.

With Butler and Herro out the Cavs have the personnel advantage. If Bam is also out then it’s just a matter of executing and not getting complacent. But the Cavs might not be able to run their normal pick-and-roll plays against a zone so they are going to have to play completely different on offense in a way they’re not used to. This would be a good game to have Kevin Love.

Defensively the Heat’s normal lineup is 27th in effective field goal percentage - you can make shots on them. But they’re 9th in points per game because they don’t foul (1st in opponents’ free throw rate), force turnovers (4th in turnover percentage), and defend the paint (5th in points per game in the paint).

The Heat’s starting lineup Friday consisted of:

Nikola Jovic, age 19, a 6’11” rookie picked #27. He had 18 points and was a +6 in his first NBA start.

Haywood Highsmith, 6’7”, a second year undrafted forward shooting 31% so far in his career. He was physical on the glass with 14 rebounds.

Caleb Martin, age 27, 6’5” small forward, with a career scoring average of 7.3 points.

Max Strus, 6’5”, averaging 9.7 points in his third season but 16.8 in his last 10 games. He hit 41% of his 3’s last year.

Kyle Lowry, 6’1", age 36, averaging 14 points and 6 assists on 41% overall and 36% on 3’s.

I can’t believe a 19-year-old rookie taken late in the first round can handle Jarrett Allen, or that a 6’7” undrafted player can contain Evan Mobley. Or that ancient Kyle Lowry can keep up with Garland. I guess we’ll find out.

By the way, Mobley averaged 6.0 rebounds per game in October but he’s up to 9.7 in November and 12.8 in the last four games. He’s really starting to attack the glass on both ends. He’s coming on strong after missing a big chunk of training camp and getting off to a rather pedestrian start.
 
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The Cavs must come out focused, put their foot on the Heat’s neck and not let them up.
AND PLEEEEEEEEEASE DEFEND THE THREE POINT LINE ;(
 
Butler being out is huge. We haven’t looked good at all lately, but I don’t see how Miami wins this game. That would be very concerning if we somehow manage to drop this one.
 
Hypothetically, this should be similar to pistons game except we have Darius and Donovan, and Kev’s out, but undersized opponent where we should be able to bully them. But the Heat are well-coached and have pride. We should be embarsssed if this game is close in late third quarter.
 
The Cavs need to come out strong in the first quarter and jump on their throats. The Wizards apparently were overconfident with Butler, Bam, Herro, and others out and came out overconfident. The Heat scored 69 in the first half and were up by 7 points going into the 4th quarter. The Wizards were lucky to win that game.

It's not unusual to see hungry young players who have been stuck to the bench play great when injuries give them an opportunity.

With Love and Wade out we need Cedi and Stevens to step up.

My guess is the Heat will use a zone to try and defend Allen and Mobley in the paint and hope the Cavs have a bad day from the 3-point line.
 
Darius over 23.5 over 2.5 3s +140 is very tempting given the zone. Have to think on that one.
 
Please have extended bench tonight and going forward. Neto and Lopez should be getting some minutes - they were part of the contributions we were 8-1 in that stretch. We should let Diakite get some minutes too.
 
This could be a trap game. These guys almost beat wash with the same roster. Spo is the best coach in the game.
 
Gonna be another ugly win purely because of the talent gap.

Spo is otherwise going to coach circles around JBB tonight.
 

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