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Game Thread | Game #24 | Cavs @ Knicks | Dec. 4, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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The Cavaliers, winners of 7 of their last 9 (losing only to Milwaukee and Toronto on the road) head east to the Big Apple for a rematch with the 10-13 Knicks, who the Cavs beat in Cleveland on Oct. 30 by a 121-108 score. The Knicks were up by 9 after three quarters but Kevin Love hit five 3’s in the 4th and cavalanched the Knicks 37-15.

Darius Garland missed that game but Donovan Mitchell exploded for 38 points and 12 assists, Love had 29 points off the bench, Dean Wade had 22, and Okoro was a +24 in 22 minutes. Garland will be back but Wade and Allen are out.

The Knicks have the home court advantage but the Cavs were off yesterday while the Knicks lost at home to Dallas 121-100.

The Knicks have all their main guys available. The Knicks have three players averaging 19-21 points per game; PG Jalen Brunson, PF Julius Randle, and SG RJ Barrett. Nobody else averages in double figures.

Starting center Mitch Robinson and backup center and former Cav Isaiah Hartenstein combine for 14 points and 14 rebounds. Cam Reddish, Obi Toppin, Evan Fourier, Derrick Rose, and Immanuel Quickly average 6-9 points off the bench. The Knicks use a lot of players and got 42 of 108 points from their bench in the first game against the Cavs.

The Knicks rank 9th in points per game despite some pretty bad shooting. They are 27th in effective field goal percentage. But they are 9th in scoring because 1) they don’t turn the ball over, 2) they get a lot of offensive putbacks, and 3) they make a lot of free throws.

They lead the NBA in points in the paint per game and are last in 3-point shooting percentage at 32%. They simply attack the rim and take a lot of short mid-range shots, ranking 2nd in frequency of shots in the 4-14’ range.

The Knicks draw a lot of fouls, ranking 6th in made free throws per game. They will try to get into the paint for high percentage shots or to draw the shooting foul.

The key to limiting their scoring is to pack the paint, make them shoot 3’s, and above all don’t let them get second chance points. This will be more difficult with Allen out.

The Cavs match up well with Mobley and Allen defending the paint, but with Allen out against the league leader in points in the paint it will obviously benefit the Knicks.

Defensively, the Knicks rank 23rd in opponents’ points per game and allowed 121 to the Cavs in the first game. They’re not bad at forcing missed shots (11th in effective FG percentage) but they don’t force many turnovers, foul a lot, and give up a lot of offensive boards (4th worst in opponents’ second chance points). The Cavs should be able to get to the line a lot and also get second chance points.

Donovan Mitchell was 8-for-13 from deep in the first game so I expect the Knicks will try to double him and force him to give up the ball, especially after he torched the Magic for 34 on Friday night. If he can get the ball to Garland or LeVert when he gets doubled the Cavs should cash in consistently.

The Cavs won the first game by hitting 23 of 50 from deep. That won’t happen again, especially on the road, even with Garland back. OK, maybe. The Mavs made 24 threes compared to 10 for the Knicks yesterday - a 42 point advantage from deep.

Yesterday the Knicks scored only 100 points at home against the Mavericks. The Knicks took 77 shots against 100 for the Mavs. The Mavs had 14 offensive rebounds and the Knicks uncharacteristically committed 19 turnovers.

If you hit your 3’s and control the defensive glass you will usually beat the Knicks.
 
I don't love Mobley guarding Robinson or Randle. It could lead to foul trouble early
 
Feeling pretty good about this one. Love the hour early start as well.
 
I expect the guards to show up offensively in a big way at MSG tonight. I expect Mitchell will want to show them what they missed out on and (if all goes well here) will never have. Darius seems to like playing in the gaaaahhhhhhhhden as well.

This is another game where I feel like starting Diakite or playing him 20 mins would be helpful defensively. New york has some strength and physicality they play with offensively and they like to get to the rim. Mitchell may have to really step up and guard Brunson tonight. Honestly, this may actually be a game where we could use Okoro. Brunson is the kind of guard he has had quite a bit of success guarding in the past. Not a huge off-ball screen threat, relies on speed and strength which Okoro can match/beat.
 
Fortunately this is a game where Lopez should be playable.
 
Big time opportunities for Lamar Stevens and Mamadi Diakite.

Stevens has already started to settle into the starting lineup due to his toughness. If he keeps shooting with willingness from 3, he has a chance to put a lock on the job.

Maybe we see Diakite play a little big SF in certain stretches with Mobley/Allen in the next month.

This is a significant enough absence from Wade that if we are already scouring the globe for an available wing player on the trade market, that timeline to acquire one might be pushed from back burner to emergency.
 
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The Cavs got some problems to deal with but I'm good with this matchup.
 
Knicks will be desperate. Mitchell,Mobley red hot and Garland/LeVert are slumping. Bet the Knicks come out hot and then collapse.
 
Somehow I thought this one would be at home and we'd have an easy time. On the road, it'll be tougher. We can lose if we can't shoot from outside or if our defense collapses.

That said, I expect to win. We'll get lots of outside opportunities because they MUST double Mobley. Diakite/Love/Stevens/Okoro will all be open. Love should feast tonight. I expect at least 20 points from him. If Garland and Mitchell play their usual games, they'll get 50-60 points. If they're on fire, we may get 70 points from them.

Mobley should get at least 3 blocks and Diakite will get at least 1-2, depending upon how many minutes he gets. Our role players are unpredictable, but if LeVert or Osman get hot, it'll be all over for the Knicks.

I predict 115-99, Cavs. We have a 57% chance of winning, in my estimation.
 
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Okoro ready to let it rain in the Garden!

 

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