The Cavs take on the 3-1 Celtics in the Gahden in what should be an interesting matchup between two of the better teams in the East so far. The Celtics represented the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals last year, losing 4-2. They had a very odd season, starting 25-25 before finishing 26-6 and advancing to the Finals. It’s like a switch was flipped after 50 games.
This year they are one of the favorites and started out 3-0 despite not having starting center Robert Williams III, who will be out for a while. Williams started 15 of their 17 playoff games and averaged 27 minutes.
Their three wins to start this season were against teams with a 2-10 combined record; 2-7 against other opponents. The Celtics then lost their fourth game at Chicago, 120-102, on the same court where the Cavs spanked the Bulls by 32 points two nights earlier. The Celtics were down by 21 points after three quarters as the Bulls took it to them.
The Celtics have not looked all that impressive this year, IMHO. They beat the 0-5 Magic by only six points. The Cavs played their worst game of the season and won by 11.
The Celtics are an extremely top heavy team - really dependent on their two stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Between them they average 56 points per game, nearly 50% of the team’s total. No one else averages over 12 points per game.
In their loss to the Bulls the Celtics’ bench was destroyed; Malcolm Brogdon was -24 in 22 minutes, Grant Williams -26 in 18 minutes, Vonleh -16 in 12, and Hauser -11 in 11. The Bulls’ bench had players at +29, +21, +21, and +16. The benches were the difference in the 18-point loss.
Last year the best five-man unit in the league was the Celtics’ grouping of Tatum, Horford, Smart, White, and Brown at +24.3 points per 100 possessions. That is their current starting lineup. In the playoffs there are no back-to-back games and starters play extended minutes, so it favors teams with great starting fives like the Celtics. But during the regular season when depth is more important, I think the Celtics will have some problems.
Al Horford, 6’9”, who is starting at center until Robert Williams III gets back, is 36 years old. He’s averaging 27 minutes. His backup is 6’10” journeyman Noah Vonleh, averaging 2.5 points in 15 minutes.
Jayson Tatum is their main man, averaging 32.5 points and 8.3 rebounds on 55.6% from the field and 37.5% on 3’s. Jaylen Brown averages 24.0 points. Those two play 37 and 36 minutes a night.
The Celtics are a rather small team; White and Smart are both 6’4”, Brown is 6’6”, Tatum 6’8”, and Horford 6’9”. Off the bench Brogdon is 6’4” and Grant Williams 6’6”.
Nobody shoots more 3’s than the Celtics - just under 47% of their field goal attempts are 3’s. They’re pretty accurate, too, ranking 8th in 3-point percentage at 37.3%. Conversely, they are 29th in percentage of points on 2’s and 27th in points in the paint, so they live or die with the long ball.
Grant Williams leads their bench players in minutes at 25 per game and is shooting 70.6% from the field, but he has been suspended for making contact with a referee. We got lucky - he serves his suspension against the Cavs.
Considering that the Cavs defend the paint very well and the Celtics score from the paint less than almost anybody, the key for the Cavs will be to defend the perimeter and not let the Celtics get going from deep. Contest the 3-point shots and if the shooter gets by count on Mobley or Allen to deny the layup.
Defensively the Celtics are on the low end of average, ranking 19th in scoring. Last year they were 1st, but that was with Robert Williams manning the middle (more on that from John Hollinger below).
The Cavs should attack the rim. The Bulls took 29 foul shots to 12 for the Celtics in their win. Get the ball to Allen and Mobley in the post and let them back it down against shorter defenders. Mitchell and LeVert should slash to the rim to try to get the Celts in foul trouble. With both Williams’s out they don’t have much of a bench and they can’t afford to foul too much.
In fact, the Celtics have been going with a seven player rotation with Vonleh as the 8th player at 15 minutes per game. With Grant Williams suspended they will be down to six rotation players.
Mobley on Jayson Tatum will be a great matchup to watch. Also Levert on Jaylen Brown and Mitchell on Marcus Smart.
I’m looking for the Cavs’ bench, which has been outstanding so far, to dominate the Celtics’ bench like the Bulls did on Monday, especially with Grant Williams out. However, the Celtics have had three days off and have another day off at home tomorrow, so their starters, except for Horford, will be able to play 40 minutes if the game is close.
Jarrett Allen is coming off a great game and will be guarded (I assume) by Horford and Vonleh. The Cavs should try and get him the ball a lot.
Darius Garland may be back for the Cavs but having been out for over a week I doubt he will see a lot of minutes. I’m expecting Donovan Mitchell to have a bounce back game but if DPOY Marcus Smart is guarding him it will be quite a battle.
John Hollinger had some interesting comments in his season preview.
And then there are the 2022-23 Boston Celtics. They left August [2022] as a favorite to win the NBA championship, with a still-young team that lost in six games in the NBA Finals, a hot coach entering his second season and a reloaded roster that added knockdown shooters Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari.
Then September happened, when the Celtics:
Lost Gallinari to a season-ending knee injury at EuroBasket.
Lost Robert Williams III for the start of this season (at least) to a second knee surgery.
Lost coach Ime Udoka after he was suspended for the 2022-23 season for “violations of team policies.”
I can’t recall a team having three losses of this magnitude in September like this; it felt like a retaliatory karmic curse for the Pierce-Garnett trade, or maybe for continually playing Neil Diamond in the arena….
Williams and Udoka were the two keys to the biggest change Boston made last season. Udoka shifted the Celtics to a much more switch-based approach on defense that suffocated opponents throughout the second half of the season, while Williams was the mainstay of said defense. When healthy, he was a more valuable piece even than Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart…
The Celtics shouldn’t panic: Even without Williams, their seven best players are better than yours. They still have two All-Star-caliber wings in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown and shored up the backcourt rotation with an elite shooter in Brogdon. In addition to Smart, they have top-tier role players such as Horford, Grant Williams and Derrick White. The trade for White at midseason was a master stroke that solidified the rotation, with Boston zipping to a 28-7 finish to the season…
The problem is that you can’t get through a season with seven players….For a championship contender, the Celtics are bizarrely lacking in quality after their top seven players.
The good news … holy hell, are those seven players good. Every key Celtic is on the good side of 30 except Horford, and they all can shoot and defend. Good luck finding the weak link to attack on this team in crunchtime…
The Celtics will win a bunch of games regardless, but things may get trickier deeper into spring. The interesting thing for Boston is that it built its championship run on world-class defense, but that part didn’t hold up in the finals: Curry and the Warriors smoked them to the tune of a 110.8 offensive rating.
In particular, it didn’t hold up without Robert Williams on the floor. The Celtics were plus-30 in the finals with Williams on the court and minus-54 in just 130 minutes without him…
What’s crazy is that he was clearly diminished from his March meniscus surgery, which the Celtics rushed him back from in just four weeks, yet was still so impactful that he nearly was the difference in their winning a championship.
This analysis underscores both the upside and downside for the Celtics this coming season: With the peak version of Robert Williams, they’re a defensive juggernaut with enough scoring to hang with anybody … but if he’s absent or limited, that premise evaporates against the league’s elite teams…
Maybe none of it matters, especially if the core players stay mostly healthy; the Celtics have that much talent. However, it seems to me that Boston’s losses, and its lethargy in filling out the back of the roster, have left it just vulnerable enough to open the door for another team to squeeze through in the East.
Like….Cleveland?
