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After a Friday night game that started at 10 p.m. Eastern and finished after midnight the Cavs took a 1,000 mile red eye to Cleveland to play their fourth and final game against the Bulls, who were off yesterday. Huge scheduling advantage for the Bulls but what can you do?
This games features the only two teams in the Association who were completely happy with their rosters and did not make any moves at the deadline. The other 28 teams all did something to get better now, to get worse now but better later, or to cut payroll.
The Cavaliers are 3-0 against the Bulls, who are 26-29 overall and 10-18 on the road. The Bulls are pretty much the definition of mediocrity. They started 9-12 and have since gone 17-17, never winning or losing more than four games in a row. They are in 9th place and fighting for a play-in spot. However, they have lost six of their last seven road games, beating only Orlando.
Starting point guard Lonzo Ball has been out the entire season after playing just 35 games last year. The rest of the starters have been remarkably healthy; they’ve started 44, 51, 51, 54, and 55 of the Bulls’ 55 games.
The Cavs hammered the Bulls in the 3rd game of the season, but the back-to-back games on Dec. 31 and Jan. 2 were memorable. The Cavs won 103-102 in Chicago and two days later won 145-134 in OT in Cleveland. That was the Donovan Mitchell 71-point game which is the highlight of the Cavs season so far. The Cavs won both games despite Garland and Mobley being out and Kevin Love and Lamar Stevens starting.
Hopefully having Garland and Mobley back will make up for the fatigue the Cavs have to deal with thanks to the schedule makers.
The Bulls rank 20th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency. Cleaningtheglass.com, which throws out garbage time numbers, ranks them 22nd offensively and 6th defensively.
CTG has a stat called “win differential”, which calculates how many games teams should have won based on their point differential. These teams are two of the worst in that category. The Bulls rank 28th at -2.8 while the Cavs rank 29th at -3.5. The Cavaliers should have won 39.5 games but only have 36. (Cue the Bickerstaff critics).
The Bulls shoot fewer 3’s than any team in the Association, but they’re average in 3-point percentage so they probably should shoot more. They’re the most accurate team at the long mid-range shot (14 feet to the 3-point line), and that’s supposed to be the shot you want to avoid the most. But DeMar DeRozen likes that shot so the Bulls shoot a lot of them.
What holds the Bulls back offensively is the lack of 3-point shooting (second to last at only 10.5 made per game) and offensive rebounding, where they rank 28th at just under 9 per game. Against the Cavaliers the Bulls are averaging just 110.7 points in three games and are shooting an abysmal 28.9% on 3’s.
Defensively the Bulls do a nice job defending the 3-pointer, ranking 10th. The Bulls are only average at forcing missed shots but excel at defensive rebounding (3rd), so second chance points are tough to come by, as are 3-pointers.
With the Cavs having played a late game the night before followed by a long flight, I’m assuming their legs will be tired and the 3-point shots will be short. On top of that the Bulls defend that shot very well, so the Cavs should try to get to the rim. But that’s also tough to do with tired legs.
DeRozen averages 26/5/5 on 51% and gets to the line a lot. Zach LaVine has a line of 24/5/4 while Nikola Vucevic averages 18 points and 11 boards. Their other two starters, Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu, average 10 points. Backup point guard Coby White averages 8.5 and nobody else gets more than 6.6 points.
So the Bulls get 50 points from DeRo and LaVine out of the 114 they average as a team. If you can contain those two you have a good shot. In the overtime game against the Cavs, DeRozan had 44 points and their Big Three combined for 90 of the team’s 134 points.
I'm assuming the Cavs will put Okoro and DeRo and Mobley on LaVine.
The Cavs are 3-0 against this team and beat them twice without Mobley and Garland, so playing at home it would seem to be an easy win especially with the Bulls having lost 6 of their last 7 on the road. Also, over the last two weeks the Cavs lead the NBA in point differential at a whopping +23.9. The next closest teams are Milwaukee at +11.8 and Boston at +10.5.
So the Cavs are healthy, at home, and on a roll while the Bulls have been floundering on the road. But that late start against the Pelicans yesterday and the travel will have taken a lot out of the Cavs. In addition, the Cavs will be playing their 5th game in seven days, so they should be exhausted. I’m not real optimistic about this one.
On the positive side, Garland only played 23 minutes last night and Rubio did not play at all or even make the trip. Between those two plus Mitchell and LeVert the Cavs are in good shape in the backcourt. I’m wondering if they will rest Mitchell on the second night of a back-to-back.
I expect the Bulls will be looking to avoid getting swept, especially after Mitchell laid 71 points on them the last time these teams met. They will be looking to salvage some respect and I think they’ll come out very motivated to get a win against a road-weary team. The Cavs have won five straight by double-digits but the Bulls are very good defensively and with tired legs the points could be hard to come by.
This games features the only two teams in the Association who were completely happy with their rosters and did not make any moves at the deadline. The other 28 teams all did something to get better now, to get worse now but better later, or to cut payroll.
The Cavaliers are 3-0 against the Bulls, who are 26-29 overall and 10-18 on the road. The Bulls are pretty much the definition of mediocrity. They started 9-12 and have since gone 17-17, never winning or losing more than four games in a row. They are in 9th place and fighting for a play-in spot. However, they have lost six of their last seven road games, beating only Orlando.
Starting point guard Lonzo Ball has been out the entire season after playing just 35 games last year. The rest of the starters have been remarkably healthy; they’ve started 44, 51, 51, 54, and 55 of the Bulls’ 55 games.
The Cavs hammered the Bulls in the 3rd game of the season, but the back-to-back games on Dec. 31 and Jan. 2 were memorable. The Cavs won 103-102 in Chicago and two days later won 145-134 in OT in Cleveland. That was the Donovan Mitchell 71-point game which is the highlight of the Cavs season so far. The Cavs won both games despite Garland and Mobley being out and Kevin Love and Lamar Stevens starting.
Hopefully having Garland and Mobley back will make up for the fatigue the Cavs have to deal with thanks to the schedule makers.
The Bulls rank 20th in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency. Cleaningtheglass.com, which throws out garbage time numbers, ranks them 22nd offensively and 6th defensively.
CTG has a stat called “win differential”, which calculates how many games teams should have won based on their point differential. These teams are two of the worst in that category. The Bulls rank 28th at -2.8 while the Cavs rank 29th at -3.5. The Cavaliers should have won 39.5 games but only have 36. (Cue the Bickerstaff critics).
The Bulls shoot fewer 3’s than any team in the Association, but they’re average in 3-point percentage so they probably should shoot more. They’re the most accurate team at the long mid-range shot (14 feet to the 3-point line), and that’s supposed to be the shot you want to avoid the most. But DeMar DeRozen likes that shot so the Bulls shoot a lot of them.
What holds the Bulls back offensively is the lack of 3-point shooting (second to last at only 10.5 made per game) and offensive rebounding, where they rank 28th at just under 9 per game. Against the Cavaliers the Bulls are averaging just 110.7 points in three games and are shooting an abysmal 28.9% on 3’s.
Defensively the Bulls do a nice job defending the 3-pointer, ranking 10th. The Bulls are only average at forcing missed shots but excel at defensive rebounding (3rd), so second chance points are tough to come by, as are 3-pointers.
With the Cavs having played a late game the night before followed by a long flight, I’m assuming their legs will be tired and the 3-point shots will be short. On top of that the Bulls defend that shot very well, so the Cavs should try to get to the rim. But that’s also tough to do with tired legs.
DeRozen averages 26/5/5 on 51% and gets to the line a lot. Zach LaVine has a line of 24/5/4 while Nikola Vucevic averages 18 points and 11 boards. Their other two starters, Patrick Williams and Ayo Dosunmu, average 10 points. Backup point guard Coby White averages 8.5 and nobody else gets more than 6.6 points.
So the Bulls get 50 points from DeRo and LaVine out of the 114 they average as a team. If you can contain those two you have a good shot. In the overtime game against the Cavs, DeRozan had 44 points and their Big Three combined for 90 of the team’s 134 points.
I'm assuming the Cavs will put Okoro and DeRo and Mobley on LaVine.
The Cavs are 3-0 against this team and beat them twice without Mobley and Garland, so playing at home it would seem to be an easy win especially with the Bulls having lost 6 of their last 7 on the road. Also, over the last two weeks the Cavs lead the NBA in point differential at a whopping +23.9. The next closest teams are Milwaukee at +11.8 and Boston at +10.5.
So the Cavs are healthy, at home, and on a roll while the Bulls have been floundering on the road. But that late start against the Pelicans yesterday and the travel will have taken a lot out of the Cavs. In addition, the Cavs will be playing their 5th game in seven days, so they should be exhausted. I’m not real optimistic about this one.
On the positive side, Garland only played 23 minutes last night and Rubio did not play at all or even make the trip. Between those two plus Mitchell and LeVert the Cavs are in good shape in the backcourt. I’m wondering if they will rest Mitchell on the second night of a back-to-back.
I expect the Bulls will be looking to avoid getting swept, especially after Mitchell laid 71 points on them the last time these teams met. They will be looking to salvage some respect and I think they’ll come out very motivated to get a win against a road-weary team. The Cavs have won five straight by double-digits but the Bulls are very good defensively and with tired legs the points could be hard to come by.
