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The 38-23 Cavaliers open the final quarter of the season at home against the West-leading Denver Nuggets, who roll in with a record of 41-19. The Nuggets have been all but unbeatable at home (27-4) and mediocre on the road (14-14). The Nuggets have lost four of their last six road games. In terms of point differential they rank 1st at home and 22nd on the road, where they are being outscored by 4.0 points per game.
Denver leads the NBA in scoring margin after the first quarter. They jump on you early. The Athletic ranks them 2nd behind Milwaukee in their current power poll.
The Nuggets dominate you at the beginning of games, and then you’re just desperately playing catch-up the rest of the night….Nikola Jokić is working on his third MVP, and the job he does closing down games in clutch situations just adds to the argument. Denver is the best team in the clutch, and…is running away with the No. 1 seed in the West.
These teams played in Denver on Jan. 6 with the Nuggets winning 121-108 thanks to scorching the nets from deep; they were 17-for-35 on 3-point shots. Also, the Cavs were an abysmal 18-for-32 at the free throw line. Just average free throw shooting by the Cavs and 3-point shooting by the Nuggets would have made an 18-point difference and a win for the Cavs.
The Cavs were without Donovan Mitchell that night and of course Wade and Rubio were also out and Danny Green had not been acquired yet, so the Cavs are gaining four new bodies. They lose Kevin Love, who was a -5 in 24 minutes.
The Nuggets are led by the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic. The website fivethirtyeight.com has this:
The two-time reigning MVP is now a pretty heavy favorite to capture the award for the third consecutive season…For context, the only players in history to win three MVPs in a row are Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird. Jokić is averaging a freaking triple-double…while shooting an absolutely outrageous (and career-best) 63.2 percent from the floor and 39.1 percent from deep. He is once again leading the NBA in PER, win shares per 48 minutes, Box Plus-Minus, Value Over Replacement Player, total RAPTOR, Estimated Plus-Minus and a whole lot more.
In the first game between these teams the Joker put up a line of 28/15/10 and was a +18.
PG Jamal Murray averages 20 points on 46% overall and 40% on 3’s. PF Aaron Gordon averages 17 points and 7 boards on 59% and 40%, but luckily he is out with a rib injury. SF Michael Porter Jr averages 17 points on 48% and 41% while SF Kentavious Caldwell-Pope averages 11 points on 47% and 45%. Sixth man Bruce Brown also averages 11 points on 49% and 39%. Obviously the shooting percentages pop out at you, especially the 3’s.
More from 538:
The Nuggets’ starters…[are] fifth-best at plus-16.6 (and the group with Brown in place of MPJ is 21st at plus-9.2 per 100). That sextet of players is going to make the Nuggets extremely scary come playoff time, where Jokić has consistently raised his game in his career to date.
So the key for the Cavs is to play even against their starters and outscore them when they go to their bench. With Gordon out that may be doable. In their loss to the Nuggets in Denver, the Cavs starters were all between -12 and -18 (except Mobley at -3), while four of the Nuggets’ starters were between +13 and +18. Since the Cavs lost by 13 it’s clear that their starters beat our starters and that was the difference.
However, two things have changed. We get Mitchell and Wade back while they lose Gordon. And this one is in Cleveland. The Nuggets are 16 points per game better at home. Must be the thin air.
The Nuggets lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, which is points scored per possession. But they’re 6th in scoring because they play slow, ranking 23rd in shot attempts per game. They are just like the Cavs, preferring to take their time and run plays that go deep into the shot clock.
The Nuggets lead the NBA in 3-point percentage but are 23rd in 3-point attempts per possession. It appears they only take the high percentage 3’s, but they make them (36.8% on the road). They also lead the NBA in assists. They had 28 against the Cavs with Jokic passing out 10 of them. The offense runs through him.
The only apparent weakness on offense is they are 24th in turnovers per possession. In the first game they had 12 turnovers to the Cavs 6. They also rank 27th in made free throws per game so they don't draw a lot of fouls. On the road they average 112 points per game. If the Cavs can hold them to 112 they have a great shot at a W.
Defensively the Nuggets are average, ranking 14th in efficiency. They are near the bottom at preventing points in the paint, ranking 25th. Jokic is big but he’s no leaper. They are above average in steals and are very good at defensive rebound percentage (6th), so you better make your first shot. They are much better defending the 3-point shot (8th) than the 2-pointer (21st), so the Cavs should attack the rim as much as possible and only shoot uncontested 3’s.
cleaningtheglass.com ranks the Nuggets 1st in offense and 14th in defense, which agrees with their NBA numbers. They rank the Nuggets 29th of 30 in defending shots taken at the rim, so that’s where to attack them.
In the first game the Cavs scored 108 points on the road without Mitchell and missing 14 free throws. At home, with Mitchell back, and with normal free throw shooting they should be able to push that number closer to 120, especially being well-rested from a week off. The Nuggets allow an average of 116.4 on the road.
The key for the Cavs is to attack the rim relentlessly on offense while not allowing the Nuggets to shoot 48.6% on 3’s like the last game. Another key will be to see how well the Cavs’ starters fare against the vaunted Denver starters, which rank as the 5th best five-man unit in the league and who dominated the Cavs’ starters (minus Mitchell) in Denver.
According to cleaningtheglass.com the Nuggets should have 38 wins based on their point differential but they have 41 - obviously due to being the NBA’s best team in late and close situations. OTOH, the Cavs are the opposite - they have 38 wins but should have 41. The stats indicate the Cavs are better than their record while the Nuggets are worse. If this one is tied coming down the stretch expect Jokic to take over and win the game.
I think the altitude in Denver affects visiting teams a lot. The Nuggets’ huge discrepancy between their home and road records suggest they’re not as good as their overall record suggests and get a huge advantage at home.
Ricky Rubio will be held out since the Cavs play Friday night in Atlanta and they prefer to have him for that game.
Denver leads the NBA in scoring margin after the first quarter. They jump on you early. The Athletic ranks them 2nd behind Milwaukee in their current power poll.
The Nuggets dominate you at the beginning of games, and then you’re just desperately playing catch-up the rest of the night….Nikola Jokić is working on his third MVP, and the job he does closing down games in clutch situations just adds to the argument. Denver is the best team in the clutch, and…is running away with the No. 1 seed in the West.
These teams played in Denver on Jan. 6 with the Nuggets winning 121-108 thanks to scorching the nets from deep; they were 17-for-35 on 3-point shots. Also, the Cavs were an abysmal 18-for-32 at the free throw line. Just average free throw shooting by the Cavs and 3-point shooting by the Nuggets would have made an 18-point difference and a win for the Cavs.
The Cavs were without Donovan Mitchell that night and of course Wade and Rubio were also out and Danny Green had not been acquired yet, so the Cavs are gaining four new bodies. They lose Kevin Love, who was a -5 in 24 minutes.
The Nuggets are led by the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic. The website fivethirtyeight.com has this:
The two-time reigning MVP is now a pretty heavy favorite to capture the award for the third consecutive season…For context, the only players in history to win three MVPs in a row are Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird. Jokić is averaging a freaking triple-double…while shooting an absolutely outrageous (and career-best) 63.2 percent from the floor and 39.1 percent from deep. He is once again leading the NBA in PER, win shares per 48 minutes, Box Plus-Minus, Value Over Replacement Player, total RAPTOR, Estimated Plus-Minus and a whole lot more.
In the first game between these teams the Joker put up a line of 28/15/10 and was a +18.
PG Jamal Murray averages 20 points on 46% overall and 40% on 3’s. PF Aaron Gordon averages 17 points and 7 boards on 59% and 40%, but luckily he is out with a rib injury. SF Michael Porter Jr averages 17 points on 48% and 41% while SF Kentavious Caldwell-Pope averages 11 points on 47% and 45%. Sixth man Bruce Brown also averages 11 points on 49% and 39%. Obviously the shooting percentages pop out at you, especially the 3’s.
More from 538:
The Nuggets’ starters…[are] fifth-best at plus-16.6 (and the group with Brown in place of MPJ is 21st at plus-9.2 per 100). That sextet of players is going to make the Nuggets extremely scary come playoff time, where Jokić has consistently raised his game in his career to date.
So the key for the Cavs is to play even against their starters and outscore them when they go to their bench. With Gordon out that may be doable. In their loss to the Nuggets in Denver, the Cavs starters were all between -12 and -18 (except Mobley at -3), while four of the Nuggets’ starters were between +13 and +18. Since the Cavs lost by 13 it’s clear that their starters beat our starters and that was the difference.
However, two things have changed. We get Mitchell and Wade back while they lose Gordon. And this one is in Cleveland. The Nuggets are 16 points per game better at home. Must be the thin air.
The Nuggets lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, which is points scored per possession. But they’re 6th in scoring because they play slow, ranking 23rd in shot attempts per game. They are just like the Cavs, preferring to take their time and run plays that go deep into the shot clock.
The Nuggets lead the NBA in 3-point percentage but are 23rd in 3-point attempts per possession. It appears they only take the high percentage 3’s, but they make them (36.8% on the road). They also lead the NBA in assists. They had 28 against the Cavs with Jokic passing out 10 of them. The offense runs through him.
The only apparent weakness on offense is they are 24th in turnovers per possession. In the first game they had 12 turnovers to the Cavs 6. They also rank 27th in made free throws per game so they don't draw a lot of fouls. On the road they average 112 points per game. If the Cavs can hold them to 112 they have a great shot at a W.
Defensively the Nuggets are average, ranking 14th in efficiency. They are near the bottom at preventing points in the paint, ranking 25th. Jokic is big but he’s no leaper. They are above average in steals and are very good at defensive rebound percentage (6th), so you better make your first shot. They are much better defending the 3-point shot (8th) than the 2-pointer (21st), so the Cavs should attack the rim as much as possible and only shoot uncontested 3’s.
cleaningtheglass.com ranks the Nuggets 1st in offense and 14th in defense, which agrees with their NBA numbers. They rank the Nuggets 29th of 30 in defending shots taken at the rim, so that’s where to attack them.
In the first game the Cavs scored 108 points on the road without Mitchell and missing 14 free throws. At home, with Mitchell back, and with normal free throw shooting they should be able to push that number closer to 120, especially being well-rested from a week off. The Nuggets allow an average of 116.4 on the road.
The key for the Cavs is to attack the rim relentlessly on offense while not allowing the Nuggets to shoot 48.6% on 3’s like the last game. Another key will be to see how well the Cavs’ starters fare against the vaunted Denver starters, which rank as the 5th best five-man unit in the league and who dominated the Cavs’ starters (minus Mitchell) in Denver.
According to cleaningtheglass.com the Nuggets should have 38 wins based on their point differential but they have 41 - obviously due to being the NBA’s best team in late and close situations. OTOH, the Cavs are the opposite - they have 38 wins but should have 41. The stats indicate the Cavs are better than their record while the Nuggets are worse. If this one is tied coming down the stretch expect Jokic to take over and win the game.
I think the altitude in Denver affects visiting teams a lot. The Nuggets’ huge discrepancy between their home and road records suggest they’re not as good as their overall record suggests and get a huge advantage at home.
Ricky Rubio will be held out since the Cavs play Friday night in Atlanta and they prefer to have him for that game.
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