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Game Thread | Game #64 | Raptors @ Cavs | Feb. 26, 2023 | 6 p.m.

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Wham with the Right Hand

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Losers of three straight the Cavaliers return home to battle the Toronto Raptors, who they are 0-3 against this season. The game starts at 6:00 p.m. The Raptors are 30-31 overall and 11-18 on the road. They will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back after winning in Detroit yesterday 95-91. The Raptors have won seven of their last eight.

The Raptors traded for C Jakob Poeltl at the deadline. After losing in his first game they have won four straight with the 7’1” Poeltl, who finally gives them a large presence in the paint.

With Poeltl on board the Raptors are much bigger as they are starting three forwards, 6’8” Pascal Siakam, 6’8” Scottie Barnes and 6’7” O.G. Anunoby. Fred VanVleet is the point guard.

VanVleet, who is second on the team in scoring and assists, has missed the first two games since the break for “personal reasons” and is listed as questionable for tonight. If FVV isn’t playing that obviously would be a big boost for the Cavs. The backup point guard, Malachi Flynn, is shooting just 36% from the field.

The Raptors beat the Cavs 108-105 in the first game of the season, then won 100-88 on Nov. 28. Jarrett Allen was out and Donovan Mitchell was held to 8 points. Both games were in Toronto. On Dec. 23 the Raps won 118-107 in Cleveland as they scored 69 points in the first half and were up by 20 after three quarters. The Raptors were a blistering 19-for-37 on 3’s in that game.

Three-point shooting has been the difference in this series. For the season the Raptors are making only 33.5% of their 3’s - only three teams are worse. But in three games against the Cavaliers the Raptors are hitting 46.3% from deep. The NBA leader is at 39.4% so against the Cavs the Raptors go from being almost the worst 3-point team to the best by miles. It’s really astonishing.

The Cavaliers are the opposite. On the season the Cavs are shooting 36.2% from deep, but against Toronto they’re at 28.3%. Bottom line is the Raptors have made 44 threes to 28 for the Cavs - a difference of 16 points per game.

The question is what adjustments, if any, the Cavs are going to make. One game or even two might be a fluke, but allowing a poor outside shooting team to go 44-for-95 from deep indicates there is something wrong with how the Cavs are defending them. 95 shots is not that small a sample.

OG Anunoby is 12-for-20 on 3’s against the Cavs. VanVleet is 11-for-22. Gary Trent is 8-for-17. The numbers are ridiculous.
In each of the three games the Raptors outscored the Cavs on 3’s by more than the winning margin.

The Raptors are 11th in points per possession despite being awful shooters. They are 28th in effective field goal percentage, 25th in 3-point rate, and 27th in 3-point percentage. But they are above average offensively due to offensive rebounding (4th) and lack of turnovers (1st). That combination results in the 6th most field goal attempts per game, which compensates for the lack of accuracy. Throw up enough shots and something will go in. They are averaging 10 offensive rebounds per game against the Cavs versus 12.7 for the season, so the Cavs have done a decent job on the defensive glass.

The acquisition of Poeltl changes the equation a bit; he’s already had games of 21 and 30 points. But they only scored 95 in Detroit yesterday (with VanVleet out) and they averaged 109 against the Cavs in the first three games. It’s amazing that despite shooting over 46% on 3’s the Raptors have only averaged 109 points. They are shooting 44.7% on 2’s against the Cavs, so their percentage is actually higher on 3’s despite being one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. Go figure.

The other problem for the Cavs, in addition to getting torched from deep, is they only scored 105, 88, and 107 points. The Raptors have done a great job on Donovan Mitchell the last two games, holding him to 8 and 12 points on 7-for-27. Anunoby is possibly the best perimeter defender in the NBA and he and his mates have bottled up Mitchell after he scored 31 on them in the opener.

Donovan might be better off being more of a facilitator than a shooter tonight, or at least get switched onto somebody besides Anunoby if he’s going to shoot. Mitchell is just 4-for-17 on 3's in the two games since the break. Tonight would be a great time for him to get his outside game back on track.

The Raptors are giving up 112.4 points per game but 100.0 to the Cavs. So far they have figured out how to neutralize the Cavs’ offense.

The Raptors easily lead the NBA in steals at 9.3 per game which leads directly to their 2nd best ranking in fast break points per game. This is a very long, athletic team that plays the passing lanes very well, so the Cavs need to be careful with the ball. They can’t be predictable or sloppy with passes. The Raptors are very good at crowding the paint and stripping the ball so the shot has to go up quickly.

The Raptors are 4th in block percentage. However, they are second worst in opponents’ effective field goal percentage so if they don’t steal the ball or block the shot it’s pretty likely to go in. They don’t defend the 3-pointer well, ranking 27th in opponents’ 3-point percentage at 37.2%, but against Cleveland it’s been a different story altogether.

This will be the fourth and final chance for the Cavs to get a win against this team and they could really use one. They are coming off a humiliating beatdown by the Hawks in which they were clearly not ready to compete and the defensive effort was lacking. They need to come into this one with their game faces on from the opening tip. The Cavs are talking about this part of the season being “go time”. Well, tonight would be a great time to get going.

The Raptors are in 9th place, 2.5 games ahead of the Bulls for the last play-in spot. There are six teams battling for the four play-in spots, so every game is huge. They probably need this game more than the Cavs since the Cavs have a two-game lead on the fading Nets. This should be a pretty intense game with a playoff atmosphere since both teams have reasons to want this one bad.
 
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We owe them a good kicking. However I'm not confident given the lack of concentration and shooting recently
 
Not gonna watch this one. I need one stress-free day lol. Based on them owning us and them making a move at the deadline to get even bigger while we sat with our thumbs up our asses, I can pretty confidently predict the script on this one. On to the next……
 
IMO the Cavs need to modify their defense to get more pressure on the 3-point shooters. If Toronto continues to make 46% from deep the Cavs will not win. It's incomprehensible that a team shooting 33% for the season is making nearly 50% against the Cavs in 95 attempts.

They also won't win if Donovan Mitchell scores 8 or 12 points like the last two games against Toronto. Their formula has been to focus on stopping Mitchell while burying almost half of their 3's. The Cavs need to put a stop to both tonight.

Okoro has scored 7 points or less in seven straight games. Either he needs to get back to knocking down corner 3's and finishing on fast breaks or he needs to be replaced in the starting lineup.

With the 7'1" Poeltl at center plus three very active 6'7-6'8" forwards in the starting lineup the Raptors are set up to dominate the offensive glass and get lots of second chance points. The Cavs are going to really need to hit the defensive glass and not expect Allen or Mobley to get every rebound. Stevens is physical on the glass so I could see him getting some action. They may need to give Wade more minutes since he has a big body and the movement skills to contest 3's.

The Cavaliers' offense has been improved over their last 10 games, scoring 114.9 points per contest compared to the 111.8 they've averaged this year. And that's with Mitchell shooting just 33% on 3's over that period. If he gets back to his norm the Cavs should be a 118-120 ppg team.
 
I don't have much hope for this one. Their overall size is a problem for us and it only got worse with the addition of Poeltl. Their wings can easily shoot over our guards and Okoro and, conversely, Garland and Mitchell need space to shoot over their guys from outside. Probably just another game of us trying to force it inside for 2s while the opponent comfortably sits outside shooting easy 3s.
 
They’re gonna beat the brakes off us…
 
Raptors have cavs number. This will be a beat down especially how the cavs are playing post asb.
 
Think there will be a lot of internal frustration if the Cavs lose to these guys again.
 

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