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On a roll with five consecutive wins the Cavs stay home for a rematch of their wild 132-123 overtime win over the Celtics in Boston last Friday. Since that game the Cavs beat the Knicks by 13 and the Celtics beat the Wizards at home 112-94.
What has changed in five days? The venue for one - this game will be in Cleveland. Advantage Cavs. Also, backup power forward Grant Williams returns to the Celtics - he was suspended last week. Williams leads the NBA in points per shot attempt, hitting 75% of his 2’s and 66.7% of his 3’s. He doesn’t shoot that much (one shot every 5.3 minutes he’s on the floor) but he makes an extremely high percentage. He’s their Dean Wade.
So both teams should be a little better this time around. Darius Garland and Raul Neto (illness) are listed as game time decisions, but it appears Garland may make his first appearance since opening night.
The Celtics stifled Bradley Beal (4-for-16) and Kyle Kuzma (3-for-13) in their win over Washington Sunday. Obviously they are smarting from getting torched for 41 points from both Mitchell and LeVert last week and bounced back with a strong defensive effort against the Wizards. They will definitely have a game plan for DM and Vert this time around. It will be interesting to see if they double Mitchell and try to force him to give up the ball, and if so, how well it works.
When the Knicks tried that on Spider he got the ball to Kevin Love and Love buried it. Eight times.
One interesting stat is the Celtics’ scoring by quarters. They lead the NBA in first quarter scoring and it declines from there. Here are the numbers:
1st quarter: 32.8 points (1st)
2nd quarter: 30.0 points (11th)
3rd quarter: 29.0 points (16th)
4th quarter: 23.3 points (26th)
We saw that Friday when the Celtics scored 75 points in the first half, 39 in the second half, and 9 in OT. Against the Wizards Sunday they led by 19 after one quarter and played even the rest of the way, winning by 18.
My theory is that the Celtics are highly dependent on Tatum and Brown for their scoring. The two of them are averaging 56.1 points; the rest of the team put together averages 60.1. Tatum and Brown both play 36 minutes per game, so by the 4th quarter they are probably getting a little tired and the shots are rimming out. The Celtics only scored 15 points in the 4th quarter against us last week. Tatum only scored 8 points in the second half and overtime combined.
So one key to beating the Celtics is to not let them get out to a big lead in the first half. In their four wins they never trailed at halftime.
In their easy win over Washington on Sunday the Celtics other three starters (Horford, Smart, and White) combined for 17 points on 6-for-19 from the field. The key is to focus on making Brown and Tatum take tough, contested shots.
The Celtics take more 3’s than any team - just under 48% of their shots. They are third in 3-point percentage and 1st in effective field goal percentage. Surprisingly they are second-to-last in offensive rebound percentage despite all the three-point shots, which frequently result in long rebounds. If you can make them miss the first shot you’re in good shape. The Celts only had 5 offensive rebounds against the Cavs in the first game.
One important factor in the Cavs’ win Friday was the Celtics committed 19 turnovers. They average just under 14.
Defensively the Celtics are 23rd in points allowed per possession. Without Robert Williams III they are a below average team defensively.
Despite being fairly small they are 8th at points allowed in the paint. However, they are 24th in opponent’s 3-point percentage. I think it’s because they lack a big shot blocker and tend to swarm into the paint to defend penetration, leaving open shooters on the perimeter.
Last week the Cavs hit 16 three-pointers at 45.7% against them. LeVert and Mitchell were 11-for-17 from deep and I’m sure the Celtics are very aware of that and will be game planning to contest the 3’s better than in the first game. There could be more blow-by opportunities and back-door cuts available if the Celtics try to deny passes and crowd shooters on the perimeter.
This should be another barn burner. If the Cavs can stay close or tied going into the 4th quarter I like their chances. The Celtics scoring drops off badly in the 4th quarter and we saw that Friday. Both teams will have had two days off so I don’t think fatigue will be a huge factor but the Cavs have been a really good 4th quarter team the last two games so if they can stay close or even be ahead after three quarters they will be in position to get another W.
What will be really interesting is how both teams adjust. They will obviously study the film from Friday and make changes. The Celtics will not want to give up 16 3-pointers again or let LeVert go off for 41 points. The Cavaliers will not let the Celtics score 75 points in the first half again. I expect a lower scoring game than 114-114 after regulation. I don’t expect LeVert to go 6-for-8 from deep this time. The Celtics know he is struggling with his 2-point shots and will force him off the line.
Bonus coverage:
The Athletic’s latest power ranking has the Cavs 4th and Celtics 5th. Here’s part of their write-up on the Celts:
Cause for optimism: This is the best we’ve ever seen Jayson Tatum play. He was brilliant in the turnaround for the Boston Celtics last season, but he has found a new level of shot creation and comfort on the offensive end. There’s nothing you can do with him defensively. I guess you can hope to force a turnover if you swarm him or just pray he misses a shot. He’s getting to every spot he wants, and he’s lethal from all of those spots. When he gets into the middle of the floor, the defense is cooked. This is a special level of play, and if he can keep up a lot of this, it’s an MVP level of production and impact.
Cause for concern: The Celtics’ defense isn’t where it needs to be…This was the No. 1 team last season at preventing 3-point makes. They’re getting lit up right now, and they’re also not really forcing many turnovers. They need to tighten up because Robert Williams III won’t be there to anchor things for quite a while.
What has changed in five days? The venue for one - this game will be in Cleveland. Advantage Cavs. Also, backup power forward Grant Williams returns to the Celtics - he was suspended last week. Williams leads the NBA in points per shot attempt, hitting 75% of his 2’s and 66.7% of his 3’s. He doesn’t shoot that much (one shot every 5.3 minutes he’s on the floor) but he makes an extremely high percentage. He’s their Dean Wade.
So both teams should be a little better this time around. Darius Garland and Raul Neto (illness) are listed as game time decisions, but it appears Garland may make his first appearance since opening night.
The Celtics stifled Bradley Beal (4-for-16) and Kyle Kuzma (3-for-13) in their win over Washington Sunday. Obviously they are smarting from getting torched for 41 points from both Mitchell and LeVert last week and bounced back with a strong defensive effort against the Wizards. They will definitely have a game plan for DM and Vert this time around. It will be interesting to see if they double Mitchell and try to force him to give up the ball, and if so, how well it works.
When the Knicks tried that on Spider he got the ball to Kevin Love and Love buried it. Eight times.
One interesting stat is the Celtics’ scoring by quarters. They lead the NBA in first quarter scoring and it declines from there. Here are the numbers:
1st quarter: 32.8 points (1st)
2nd quarter: 30.0 points (11th)
3rd quarter: 29.0 points (16th)
4th quarter: 23.3 points (26th)
We saw that Friday when the Celtics scored 75 points in the first half, 39 in the second half, and 9 in OT. Against the Wizards Sunday they led by 19 after one quarter and played even the rest of the way, winning by 18.
My theory is that the Celtics are highly dependent on Tatum and Brown for their scoring. The two of them are averaging 56.1 points; the rest of the team put together averages 60.1. Tatum and Brown both play 36 minutes per game, so by the 4th quarter they are probably getting a little tired and the shots are rimming out. The Celtics only scored 15 points in the 4th quarter against us last week. Tatum only scored 8 points in the second half and overtime combined.
So one key to beating the Celtics is to not let them get out to a big lead in the first half. In their four wins they never trailed at halftime.
In their easy win over Washington on Sunday the Celtics other three starters (Horford, Smart, and White) combined for 17 points on 6-for-19 from the field. The key is to focus on making Brown and Tatum take tough, contested shots.
The Celtics take more 3’s than any team - just under 48% of their shots. They are third in 3-point percentage and 1st in effective field goal percentage. Surprisingly they are second-to-last in offensive rebound percentage despite all the three-point shots, which frequently result in long rebounds. If you can make them miss the first shot you’re in good shape. The Celts only had 5 offensive rebounds against the Cavs in the first game.
One important factor in the Cavs’ win Friday was the Celtics committed 19 turnovers. They average just under 14.
Defensively the Celtics are 23rd in points allowed per possession. Without Robert Williams III they are a below average team defensively.
Despite being fairly small they are 8th at points allowed in the paint. However, they are 24th in opponent’s 3-point percentage. I think it’s because they lack a big shot blocker and tend to swarm into the paint to defend penetration, leaving open shooters on the perimeter.
Last week the Cavs hit 16 three-pointers at 45.7% against them. LeVert and Mitchell were 11-for-17 from deep and I’m sure the Celtics are very aware of that and will be game planning to contest the 3’s better than in the first game. There could be more blow-by opportunities and back-door cuts available if the Celtics try to deny passes and crowd shooters on the perimeter.
This should be another barn burner. If the Cavs can stay close or tied going into the 4th quarter I like their chances. The Celtics scoring drops off badly in the 4th quarter and we saw that Friday. Both teams will have had two days off so I don’t think fatigue will be a huge factor but the Cavs have been a really good 4th quarter team the last two games so if they can stay close or even be ahead after three quarters they will be in position to get another W.
What will be really interesting is how both teams adjust. They will obviously study the film from Friday and make changes. The Celtics will not want to give up 16 3-pointers again or let LeVert go off for 41 points. The Cavaliers will not let the Celtics score 75 points in the first half again. I expect a lower scoring game than 114-114 after regulation. I don’t expect LeVert to go 6-for-8 from deep this time. The Celtics know he is struggling with his 2-point shots and will force him off the line.
Bonus coverage:
The Athletic’s latest power ranking has the Cavs 4th and Celtics 5th. Here’s part of their write-up on the Celts:
Cause for optimism: This is the best we’ve ever seen Jayson Tatum play. He was brilliant in the turnaround for the Boston Celtics last season, but he has found a new level of shot creation and comfort on the offensive end. There’s nothing you can do with him defensively. I guess you can hope to force a turnover if you swarm him or just pray he misses a shot. He’s getting to every spot he wants, and he’s lethal from all of those spots. When he gets into the middle of the floor, the defense is cooked. This is a special level of play, and if he can keep up a lot of this, it’s an MVP level of production and impact.
Cause for concern: The Celtics’ defense isn’t where it needs to be…This was the No. 1 team last season at preventing 3-point makes. They’re getting lit up right now, and they’re also not really forcing many turnovers. They need to tighten up because Robert Williams III won’t be there to anchor things for quite a while.
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