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This definitely had Cavs implications
NBA players reject salary cap smoothing, raising projected 2016 cap to more than $90M
By Louis Bien
@louisbien on Feb 13, 2015, 7:46p 2
Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Expect to see record-setting free agent contracts signed in 2016.
NBA players have rejected a proposal that would "smooth" the projected windfall from the new television deal that the league signed last October, setting up a substantial increase of the salary cap in 2016, according to reports. Per Tim Bontemps of the New York Post, the salary cap is expected jump above $90 million -- a nearly $27 million jump from the 2014-15 salary cap.
Smoothing would have eased a burden on NBA front offices, who will go into 2016 free agency suddenly well below the salary cap, setting up a feeding frenzy. Though smoothing technically wouldn't take any money out of the pockets of players, it was shot down in part, perhaps, because several players had structured their contracts so that they would become free agents in 2016, and they wanted to maximize their potential contracts.
Among the names expected to take advantage of skyrocketing pay rolls in 2016: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, Anthony Davis, and a whole mess of others. Other player unions, like the NFL, have actually argued for salary cap smoothing in the past because it is more fair to player who signed long-term deals before the cap increase. In the case of NBA players, however, more than half of NBPA membership expected is expected to hit free agency in 2016, as SB Nation's Tom Ziller pointed out last October.
The mechanism of smoothing is a little complex. Essentially, as Danny Schayes at Sheridan Hoops explains, the rise of the salary cap would be artificially slowed over the first several seasons of the new television deal. NBA players wouldn't lose any money, however. Players are guaranteed between 49 and 51 percent of total revenues, the other half of which goes to ownership. If the players' share falls below 49 percent (as it certainly would under smoothing), then the shortfall would then be given back to them by owners to be divided.
No matter what, players will be making a lot more money over the coming seasons.
NBA players reject salary cap smoothing, raising projected 2016 cap to more than $90M
By Louis Bien
@louisbien on Feb 13, 2015, 7:46p 2
Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Expect to see record-setting free agent contracts signed in 2016.
NBA players have rejected a proposal that would "smooth" the projected windfall from the new television deal that the league signed last October, setting up a substantial increase of the salary cap in 2016, according to reports. Per Tim Bontemps of the New York Post, the salary cap is expected jump above $90 million -- a nearly $27 million jump from the 2014-15 salary cap.
Smoothing would have eased a burden on NBA front offices, who will go into 2016 free agency suddenly well below the salary cap, setting up a feeding frenzy. Though smoothing technically wouldn't take any money out of the pockets of players, it was shot down in part, perhaps, because several players had structured their contracts so that they would become free agents in 2016, and they wanted to maximize their potential contracts.
Among the names expected to take advantage of skyrocketing pay rolls in 2016: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, Anthony Davis, and a whole mess of others. Other player unions, like the NFL, have actually argued for salary cap smoothing in the past because it is more fair to player who signed long-term deals before the cap increase. In the case of NBA players, however, more than half of NBPA membership expected is expected to hit free agency in 2016, as SB Nation's Tom Ziller pointed out last October.
The mechanism of smoothing is a little complex. Essentially, as Danny Schayes at Sheridan Hoops explains, the rise of the salary cap would be artificially slowed over the first several seasons of the new television deal. NBA players wouldn't lose any money, however. Players are guaranteed between 49 and 51 percent of total revenues, the other half of which goes to ownership. If the players' share falls below 49 percent (as it certainly would under smoothing), then the shortfall would then be given back to them by owners to be divided.
No matter what, players will be making a lot more money over the coming seasons.
TFIR
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Adam Silver
During a press conference at All-Star weekend, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said that he would like to reduce the amount of back-to back sets during the regular season, as well as potentially eliminating four games in five nights.
It's clear that Silver wants to see several changes in the coming years, and he went on to say that there's "nothing more important than the health and welfare of our players." A less grueling schedule would likely cut back on the amount of injuries that we see each year, while the quality of play would likely rise as well.
Other topics included taking a closer look at the playoff format due to the imbalance of the two conferences, increasing the minimum age limit for college players to 20, as well as eventually tweaking the draft lottery which currently incentivizes losing games to gain higher picks. The schedule will likely be the first priority for the NBA, but it's great to see Silver taking steps to improve upon the overall quality of the league.
During a press conference at All-Star weekend, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said that he would like to reduce the amount of back-to back sets during the regular season, as well as potentially eliminating four games in five nights.
It's clear that Silver wants to see several changes in the coming years, and he went on to say that there's "nothing more important than the health and welfare of our players." A less grueling schedule would likely cut back on the amount of injuries that we see each year, while the quality of play would likely rise as well.
Other topics included taking a closer look at the playoff format due to the imbalance of the two conferences, increasing the minimum age limit for college players to 20, as well as eventually tweaking the draft lottery which currently incentivizes losing games to gain higher picks. The schedule will likely be the first priority for the NBA, but it's great to see Silver taking steps to improve upon the overall quality of the league.
TFIR
In the Rotation
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BA Trade Deadline Primer: Mining for (Nuggets of) Gold
Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
NBA
February 16, 2015
by Zach Lowe
Don’t get your hopes up: This NBA trade deadline doesn’t promise major action, since so many teams on both sides of the buyer-seller divide got their business out of the way early.1 But surprise deals always pop up, and teams can chitchat with more certainty about the salary-cap environment after the players’ union smacked down the league’s smoothing proposal for future national TV money over All-Star Weekend.
Some corners of the league office are wary about the cap consequences of the league’s national TV take leaping from about $930 million in 2015-16 to $2.1 billion the following season. The cap level is tied to league revenue, and a mega-jump like that would send the cap skyrocketing from about $68 million next season to something like $90 million in 2016-17, according to various league and team projections.
As I’ve been writing since the summer, an unprecedented cap increase raises thorny complications — including the possibility that super-talented teams might luck into a random one-year blip of cap flexibility. Big-market sad sacks like the Knicks and Lakers could offer two or even three huge salary slots to the loaded class of 2016.
The league’s smoothing proposal meant that none of this was written in stone; teams weren’t sure what the cap would look like after this season and had to plan for several contingencies. The plotting got easier over the last few months, as Michele Roberts, the union’s new executive director, made it clear she was suspicious of any smoothing proposal from league headquarters. That suspicion morphed on Friday into an official rejection. The league and union can still negotiate, but time is running thin and a compromise seems unlikely.
In other words: Get ready for the cap bonanza of 2016. Teams know that it’s coming, and they can act with a hair more confidence over these final hours. Let’s spin around the biggest deadline-related questions as the madness unfolds.
How Crazy Will Denver Get?
The Nuggets are at the epicenter. They’ve been seeking multiple first-round picks for both Wilson Chandler and Arron Afflalo, talking with obvious contender types like the Blazers and ambulance-chasing with banged-up playoff teams like the Wizards. Snagging two firsts for Timofey Mozgov emboldened the Denver front office to chase big returns, and the rest of the league is waiting for Denver to step back as the deadline approaches. Anyone could have JaVale McGee for a fruit basket.
The more interesting questions surround Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried. Denver isn’t shopping those guys, but Jusuf Nurkic is the only true untouchable on the roster, per several league sources who have dealt with the Nuggets. The sense around the league is that you could land Lawson or Faried with a Godfather offer. They are gettable. Boston and Denver have had exploratory talks about Lawson, per several sources.
Lawson and Faried are also due a lot of future money in a league in which contracts are shorter than ever. Lawson will earn $12.4 million next season and $13.2 million in 2016-17. He’s an outstanding offensive player, and his shooting has rebounded after an icy start to this season. His ankle doesn’t appear to be bothering him much anymore. He’s something like the ninth-, 10th-, or 11th-best point guard in the league — a super-fast dynamo who can get into the lane at will, draw fouls, and dish a ton of dimes.
But he’ll be 28 at the start of next season, the ankle is worrisome, and he’s had some off-the court issues; he was arrested on suspicion of DUI a few weeks ago, and Brian Shaw famously toyed with eliminating daytime shootarounds because his players like the nightlife, baby. Shaw and Lawson have clashed at times this season, though that’s not necessarily a big issue. He’ll be 30 at the start of his next major contract, meaning the end of that deal could be a little ugly.
Dealing Lawson would leave Denver with a gaping hole at point guard, which is why it’s tempting to construct wild three-team trades in which they receive someone like Reggie Jackson or Goran Dragic from a third-party team.
As for Faried, his four-year, $50 million extension kicks in next season, and his development on both ends has plateaued. The salary-matching math is complicated with an extended player in the last season of his rookie deal, but there are paths around it.
But that’s where the league’s new cap environment becomes a factor. There is a feeling around the league that teams that aren’t free-agent destinations are coming to grips with their cap room being less valuable than ever. If free-agency behemoths have major room, the little guys will scrap for leftovers over the next few summers. Dealing for a player on an expiring contract, or even a guy with just one year left, holds less appeal than it used to. That guy can bolt almost immediately and enter a frothy marketplace of beaches, big cities, and friendly tax jurisdictions.
On the flip side, draft picks and rookie-scale contracts are fixed through the 2020-21 season2 at dollar amounts that won’t increase as quickly as the cap. Young players will get proportionally cheaper every season. So will veteran players locked up on contracts signed over the last couple of years — the pre-spike deals. Contracts that look pricey and long now aren’t so bad, especially if the guy attached can play.
Detroit’s use of the stretch provision to soften the blow of eating Josh Smith’s money sent shock waves through the league. Teams haven’t made much use of the new stretch rule, which allows them to spread dead money over many years as a way of minimizing the cap hurt in any single season. Cutting Smith was a bad cap move, but it reinforced the value of the stretch provision: If teams trade for a flawed player with a “bad” contract, the stretch provision is almost a get-out-of-jail-free card. Some of those players might be worth a shot.
Non-glamour teams are looking more at those guys as agreeable trade currency. Lawson and Faried aren’t perfect fits for this model of player, since Denver itself isn’t a traditional free-agency hot spot. But a guy whose contract looks even just a tad weighty might be more movable than it seems if any number of teams pivot in unexpected ways — Faried, Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin, Marcin Gortat, Channing Frye, Chris Bosh, Avery Bradley, Rudy Gay, and others fit the description to varying degrees.
Those guys aren’t necessarily on the block; Bosh is a star on a team that loves him, and Gortat is a valuable two-way center — even if he somehow can’t get on the floor in fourth quarters. Bradley’s deal is fine. Frye hasn’t fit as well as expected in Orlando, and his four-year, $32 million contract looks fat as a result. But he can be a weapon on the right team, and if I were the Magic, so far from the playoffs, I’d at least sniff out what Frye might draw.
On the other hand, non-destination teams that might gamble on these guys are loath to trade away first-round picks. And teams with good players under medium-term contracts don’t like giving them away for bad picks and fringe prospects — unless they really need to cut money. It may be that all of these market trends won’t coalesce into a workable trade, but they’re worth monitoring. The league is always evolving; the value of various assets is always changing.
Denver isn’t dealing Lawson unless it gets a bounty in return. Three teams stand out as potential suitors should they decide to go all in:
Boston. The C’s have a thousand draft picks, two big trade exceptions, and a bushel of interesting young guys. It’s unclear how interested they really are, and dealing for Lawson now would bring the risk of a semi-unwanted playoff appearance. Boston will not include Marcus Smart in any Lawson deal.
Houston. The Rockets are the contender with the most bullets left in the chamber. They’re sitting on a potential lottery pick from the Pelicans, and Smith’s improved play of late makes it a bit more palatable to put Terrence Jones in a trade. They also have convenient salary-matching pieces in Jason Terry and Kostas Papanikolaou, plus their own future first-round picks.3
The Rockets are really good, but the West is a bloodbath and Dwight Howard’s knee troubles are worrisome. The Grizz, Mavs, and Thunder have already flipped future first-round picks for present-day upgrades, and the clock on Howard’s free agency is ticking.
Houston will have a hard time creating max-level cap space this summer, so landing a big fish now is enticing. The Rockets also trust their ability to retain players once they get them (and their Bird rights), so Houston is less fearful than a lot of teams about trading for an impending free agent like Dragic — a guy the Rockets are targeting, per ESPN.com’s Marc Stein. If the price for Dragic is friendlier, Houston may prefer that route.
Daryl Morey is always active, and he has cards to play.
Sacramento. The Kings don’t have as many cards, since they owe their first-round pick to the Bulls if it falls outside the top 10. Their free fall down the standings since canning Mike Malone has Sacto on pace to keep the pick this June, meaning the Kings could trade the player they select after the draft. That would obviously delay any big trade until the offseason.
But the Denver connections run deep here now, with George Karl onboard and Pete D’Alessandro in his second season as GM. The Kings don’t have much to offer, especially since Nik Stauskas has looked borderline helpless when he has been able to crack the rotation. Still: Never underestimate the possibility of Sacramento springing something funky.
Teams With Potentially Big Decisions
Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images
Oklahoma City
Ask team executives which teams beyond Denver will define the deadline, and two come up almost every time: Brooklyn and Oklahoma City, borderline playoff teams (for now) that nearly collaborated a month ago on a three-team whopper centered on Brook Lopez.
The Nets are as active as ever, but they appear united against dealing just for the sake of dealing. If they’re going to move Lopez or Joe Johnson, they’ll want at least some token future assets and salary relief that could open up the possibility of Brooklyn becoming a free-agency player this summer and in 2016.4 The Nets surely noticed Mitch McGary’s strong play before the All-Star break, and that Steven Adams is out a few weeks with a broken hand. Lopez isn’t the cleanest fit in Oklahoma City, but it’s workable, and the Thunder are under massive pressure to win now.
The Jackson situation means the Thunder could act as both buyers and sellers, unlocking three-team trades in which partners going in different directions all get something they like. Jackson is unhappy in a backup role, losing minutes to Dion Waiters, and set to hit free agency. The Thunder are just $2.2 million over the tax, and when you’re that close, you should at least try to get under — though the need is a bit less urgent given how tough it will be to reach the tax line, and trigger repeater penalties, once the cap spikes.
Still, an eight-figure deal for Jackson could take the Thunder over next year’s tax, and dealing him could be a way to recoup a first-round pick after ditching one for Waiters.
Jackson is a good player who has been valuable in the playoffs, and there is major risk in a would-be contender dealing such a player without getting a rotation cog in return. The Thunder also found a groove before the All-Star break, and McGary’s emergence decreases the need for Lopez. The offense ain’t pretty and the defense can get jumpy, but they’re tied with Phoenix in the loss column, and they’re still slaughtering people when Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Serge Ibaka share the floor.
(cont)
Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
NBA
February 16, 2015
by Zach Lowe
Don’t get your hopes up: This NBA trade deadline doesn’t promise major action, since so many teams on both sides of the buyer-seller divide got their business out of the way early.1 But surprise deals always pop up, and teams can chitchat with more certainty about the salary-cap environment after the players’ union smacked down the league’s smoothing proposal for future national TV money over All-Star Weekend.
Some corners of the league office are wary about the cap consequences of the league’s national TV take leaping from about $930 million in 2015-16 to $2.1 billion the following season. The cap level is tied to league revenue, and a mega-jump like that would send the cap skyrocketing from about $68 million next season to something like $90 million in 2016-17, according to various league and team projections.
As I’ve been writing since the summer, an unprecedented cap increase raises thorny complications — including the possibility that super-talented teams might luck into a random one-year blip of cap flexibility. Big-market sad sacks like the Knicks and Lakers could offer two or even three huge salary slots to the loaded class of 2016.
The league’s smoothing proposal meant that none of this was written in stone; teams weren’t sure what the cap would look like after this season and had to plan for several contingencies. The plotting got easier over the last few months, as Michele Roberts, the union’s new executive director, made it clear she was suspicious of any smoothing proposal from league headquarters. That suspicion morphed on Friday into an official rejection. The league and union can still negotiate, but time is running thin and a compromise seems unlikely.
In other words: Get ready for the cap bonanza of 2016. Teams know that it’s coming, and they can act with a hair more confidence over these final hours. Let’s spin around the biggest deadline-related questions as the madness unfolds.
How Crazy Will Denver Get?
The Nuggets are at the epicenter. They’ve been seeking multiple first-round picks for both Wilson Chandler and Arron Afflalo, talking with obvious contender types like the Blazers and ambulance-chasing with banged-up playoff teams like the Wizards. Snagging two firsts for Timofey Mozgov emboldened the Denver front office to chase big returns, and the rest of the league is waiting for Denver to step back as the deadline approaches. Anyone could have JaVale McGee for a fruit basket.
The more interesting questions surround Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried. Denver isn’t shopping those guys, but Jusuf Nurkic is the only true untouchable on the roster, per several league sources who have dealt with the Nuggets. The sense around the league is that you could land Lawson or Faried with a Godfather offer. They are gettable. Boston and Denver have had exploratory talks about Lawson, per several sources.
Lawson and Faried are also due a lot of future money in a league in which contracts are shorter than ever. Lawson will earn $12.4 million next season and $13.2 million in 2016-17. He’s an outstanding offensive player, and his shooting has rebounded after an icy start to this season. His ankle doesn’t appear to be bothering him much anymore. He’s something like the ninth-, 10th-, or 11th-best point guard in the league — a super-fast dynamo who can get into the lane at will, draw fouls, and dish a ton of dimes.
But he’ll be 28 at the start of next season, the ankle is worrisome, and he’s had some off-the court issues; he was arrested on suspicion of DUI a few weeks ago, and Brian Shaw famously toyed with eliminating daytime shootarounds because his players like the nightlife, baby. Shaw and Lawson have clashed at times this season, though that’s not necessarily a big issue. He’ll be 30 at the start of his next major contract, meaning the end of that deal could be a little ugly.
Dealing Lawson would leave Denver with a gaping hole at point guard, which is why it’s tempting to construct wild three-team trades in which they receive someone like Reggie Jackson or Goran Dragic from a third-party team.
As for Faried, his four-year, $50 million extension kicks in next season, and his development on both ends has plateaued. The salary-matching math is complicated with an extended player in the last season of his rookie deal, but there are paths around it.
But that’s where the league’s new cap environment becomes a factor. There is a feeling around the league that teams that aren’t free-agent destinations are coming to grips with their cap room being less valuable than ever. If free-agency behemoths have major room, the little guys will scrap for leftovers over the next few summers. Dealing for a player on an expiring contract, or even a guy with just one year left, holds less appeal than it used to. That guy can bolt almost immediately and enter a frothy marketplace of beaches, big cities, and friendly tax jurisdictions.
On the flip side, draft picks and rookie-scale contracts are fixed through the 2020-21 season2 at dollar amounts that won’t increase as quickly as the cap. Young players will get proportionally cheaper every season. So will veteran players locked up on contracts signed over the last couple of years — the pre-spike deals. Contracts that look pricey and long now aren’t so bad, especially if the guy attached can play.
Detroit’s use of the stretch provision to soften the blow of eating Josh Smith’s money sent shock waves through the league. Teams haven’t made much use of the new stretch rule, which allows them to spread dead money over many years as a way of minimizing the cap hurt in any single season. Cutting Smith was a bad cap move, but it reinforced the value of the stretch provision: If teams trade for a flawed player with a “bad” contract, the stretch provision is almost a get-out-of-jail-free card. Some of those players might be worth a shot.
Non-glamour teams are looking more at those guys as agreeable trade currency. Lawson and Faried aren’t perfect fits for this model of player, since Denver itself isn’t a traditional free-agency hot spot. But a guy whose contract looks even just a tad weighty might be more movable than it seems if any number of teams pivot in unexpected ways — Faried, Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin, Marcin Gortat, Channing Frye, Chris Bosh, Avery Bradley, Rudy Gay, and others fit the description to varying degrees.
Those guys aren’t necessarily on the block; Bosh is a star on a team that loves him, and Gortat is a valuable two-way center — even if he somehow can’t get on the floor in fourth quarters. Bradley’s deal is fine. Frye hasn’t fit as well as expected in Orlando, and his four-year, $32 million contract looks fat as a result. But he can be a weapon on the right team, and if I were the Magic, so far from the playoffs, I’d at least sniff out what Frye might draw.
On the other hand, non-destination teams that might gamble on these guys are loath to trade away first-round picks. And teams with good players under medium-term contracts don’t like giving them away for bad picks and fringe prospects — unless they really need to cut money. It may be that all of these market trends won’t coalesce into a workable trade, but they’re worth monitoring. The league is always evolving; the value of various assets is always changing.
Denver isn’t dealing Lawson unless it gets a bounty in return. Three teams stand out as potential suitors should they decide to go all in:
Boston. The C’s have a thousand draft picks, two big trade exceptions, and a bushel of interesting young guys. It’s unclear how interested they really are, and dealing for Lawson now would bring the risk of a semi-unwanted playoff appearance. Boston will not include Marcus Smart in any Lawson deal.
Houston. The Rockets are the contender with the most bullets left in the chamber. They’re sitting on a potential lottery pick from the Pelicans, and Smith’s improved play of late makes it a bit more palatable to put Terrence Jones in a trade. They also have convenient salary-matching pieces in Jason Terry and Kostas Papanikolaou, plus their own future first-round picks.3
The Rockets are really good, but the West is a bloodbath and Dwight Howard’s knee troubles are worrisome. The Grizz, Mavs, and Thunder have already flipped future first-round picks for present-day upgrades, and the clock on Howard’s free agency is ticking.
Houston will have a hard time creating max-level cap space this summer, so landing a big fish now is enticing. The Rockets also trust their ability to retain players once they get them (and their Bird rights), so Houston is less fearful than a lot of teams about trading for an impending free agent like Dragic — a guy the Rockets are targeting, per ESPN.com’s Marc Stein. If the price for Dragic is friendlier, Houston may prefer that route.
Daryl Morey is always active, and he has cards to play.
Sacramento. The Kings don’t have as many cards, since they owe their first-round pick to the Bulls if it falls outside the top 10. Their free fall down the standings since canning Mike Malone has Sacto on pace to keep the pick this June, meaning the Kings could trade the player they select after the draft. That would obviously delay any big trade until the offseason.
But the Denver connections run deep here now, with George Karl onboard and Pete D’Alessandro in his second season as GM. The Kings don’t have much to offer, especially since Nik Stauskas has looked borderline helpless when he has been able to crack the rotation. Still: Never underestimate the possibility of Sacramento springing something funky.
Teams With Potentially Big Decisions
Oklahoma City
Ask team executives which teams beyond Denver will define the deadline, and two come up almost every time: Brooklyn and Oklahoma City, borderline playoff teams (for now) that nearly collaborated a month ago on a three-team whopper centered on Brook Lopez.
The Nets are as active as ever, but they appear united against dealing just for the sake of dealing. If they’re going to move Lopez or Joe Johnson, they’ll want at least some token future assets and salary relief that could open up the possibility of Brooklyn becoming a free-agency player this summer and in 2016.4 The Nets surely noticed Mitch McGary’s strong play before the All-Star break, and that Steven Adams is out a few weeks with a broken hand. Lopez isn’t the cleanest fit in Oklahoma City, but it’s workable, and the Thunder are under massive pressure to win now.
The Jackson situation means the Thunder could act as both buyers and sellers, unlocking three-team trades in which partners going in different directions all get something they like. Jackson is unhappy in a backup role, losing minutes to Dion Waiters, and set to hit free agency. The Thunder are just $2.2 million over the tax, and when you’re that close, you should at least try to get under — though the need is a bit less urgent given how tough it will be to reach the tax line, and trigger repeater penalties, once the cap spikes.
Still, an eight-figure deal for Jackson could take the Thunder over next year’s tax, and dealing him could be a way to recoup a first-round pick after ditching one for Waiters.
Jackson is a good player who has been valuable in the playoffs, and there is major risk in a would-be contender dealing such a player without getting a rotation cog in return. The Thunder also found a groove before the All-Star break, and McGary’s emergence decreases the need for Lopez. The offense ain’t pretty and the defense can get jumpy, but they’re tied with Phoenix in the loss column, and they’re still slaughtering people when Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Serge Ibaka share the floor.
(cont)
TFIR
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Toronto
Masai Ujiri talked at length with me in late December about how hard it was just deciding whether the Raptors, as a strong team in a weak conference, are true title contenders or something more ambiguous, a notch or two below the elite. He vowed that he would not do any trade that sacrificed even a small piece of the future for a one-season upgrade.
The Raps blazed into the All-Star break, but their defense is shaky and they have two expendable expiring contracts in Landry Fields and Chuck Hayes. Those guys alone won’t get you anything, but the Raps have a couple of future assets that have declined enough in value that Ujiri might include them in the right deal: their own first-round pick and Terrence Ross. (The same doesn’t apply to the 2016 Knicks first-rounder Toronto owns thanks to the ridiculous Andrea Bargnani heist.) Their own pick is a lock to fall in the mid-20s, and though this front office could absolutely nail a pick that low, the odds are always against it.
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
Ross has been coming off the bench since mid-January, and though he can shoot, the rest of his game has stagnated — especially his defense. The Raps are listening to incoming offers on Ross, per several league sources, and a couple of power forwards on borderline playoff teams stand out as intriguing targets: David West and Kevin Garnett.
Garnett would have to waive his no-trade clause, and he does not enjoy change. West is an even trickier case. He has been available off and on in exchange for a first-round pick over the last couple of months, per several league sources, but Paul George’s potential mid-March return could change Indiana’s deadline stance. The Pacers are three games behind the no. 8 slot in the loss column, with a relatively easy and home-heavy schedule the rest of the way. If George really comes back on March 14 in Boston, as Marc Spears of Yahoo relayed over the weekend, Indy would have him for 18 of its final 28 games.
But it wouldn’t be getting peak George, and Indy has to jump over three teams — Boston, Detroit, and Brooklyn — just to get into the no. 9 slot. Trading West could accelerate a mini-rebuild, but West’s $12.6 million player option for next season is an unpleasant pill. Corey Brewer quietly declined his own player option to grease his trade to Houston, but West’s option is much bigger, and he can’t afford to close off any paths to money as he approaches 35. It’s unclear whether any team — Toronto, Charlotte, or someone else — is primed to surrender a first-round pick for West. If the Pacers can’t find a hungry taker, they might stay the course and settle for a smaller move.
West’s option could eat into Toronto’s cap room, though it won’t have any if it brings back both Amir Johnson and Lou Williams.5 It’s tempting to suggest a Utah-Toronto deal revolving around Ross and the ornery Enes Kanter, a swap that could in theory balance out both rosters in the right places. But Kanter’s representatives are a little nuts, and there aren’t many teams stoked to pay his next contract.
Kanter is a tweener who probably leans more toward the center spot but can’t protect the rim or do the other things on defense that teams need from centers. The power forward position is absolutely loaded around the league, and teams aren’t much interested in bigs who can’t shoot 3s or patrol the hoop. Kanter is a skilled player — a post-up bruiser with a nose for offensive rebounds and a sweet jumper. He has worked a bit harder on defense this year, though the results haven’t come — not shocking, since he’s just 22.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Kanter could follow Greg Monroe’s path to two-way respectability, but he’d have to earn many more free throws and improve his passing exponentially. Every path on Kanter’s decision tree points to “shoot” — he has just 26 assists all season, which is kind of laughable considering how much Quin Snyder has his bigs handling the ball around the elbows.
Finding a workable deal for Kanter is tough. Boston already has stretchy bigs who struggle with rim protection. The Kings don’t need another ball-dominant post guy next to Boogie. Kanter doesn’t fit Indy’s defense-first culture, and while Portland needs healthy bigs, it’d be reluctant to jeopardize its chemistry. The ever-active Hornets could view Kanter as an heir apparent to Al Jefferson, but they’re in a playoff chase, and Utah would throw the phone on the floor at the mere mention of Lance Stephenson. A Dragic-Kanter swap makes some theoretical sense given the roster needs of each team, but Utah is not the sort of market that can bank on retaining unrestricted free agents. The Lakers are intriguing but could chase Kanter in restricted free agency — a game the Lakers usually sit out.
Utah will seek out deals, and it has to be prepared to accept a little less than equal value given Kanter’s impending payday and reputation. The Jazz could also hope the market proves cooler than expected, and that they’ll be able to retain him at a reasonable price with an eye on dealing him later.
Toronto may have a bigger need on the wing than at power forward, where the combination of Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson, and James Johnson (in small lineups) is fine. James Johnson provides needed bulk on the wing, but with Ross’s future unclear, the Raps could use some true wing depth to beef up around Williams, Greivis Vasquez, and DeMar DeRozan. They could sniff around the Denver guys, but a lot of the other potentially available wings — including Gerald Green and Tim Hardaway Jr. — are even worse defenders than Ross.
Phoenix
The Suns are clinging to the no. 8 slot after losing five of six, including yet another rim-backboard-rim-basket heartbreaker at the buzzer. Ryan McDonough, the team’s GM, mentioned the need to balance out the roster in a recent radio interview, and we’ve already covered some of the Dragic possibilities. The Suns want to make the playoffs. Even if they’re afraid Dragic walks, they can’t afford to toss him away without getting a real player in return.
It’s very hard to find a good big man on a team that might be willing to deal for Dragic on an expiring contract. The Rockets loom, and while the Lakers always bank on the glitz of L.A., I’m not sure Jordan Hill cuts it as a frontcourt upgrade for Phoenix. As I reported in December, other teams have long felt that Phoenix would prefer dealing Isaiah Thomas; he has three years left on a contract that declines in value every season, and that opens up a broader trade market.
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
It also opens up the possibility of Phoenix dropping from three starting-caliber point guards to just one if Dragic leaves after a Thomas trade. But Phoenix in that scenario could pivot to cap space, and it’s still well stocked with future picks and young players. And Phoenix may well just shrug and dole out $35 million combined per season to keep all three point guards for now; it already plays two of them together for most of every game, and that $35 million doesn’t look so insane with the cap set to leap and Markieff Morris locked up on a knockout deal.
The Portland Dilemma
Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images
Portland faces a version of the dilemma Memphis resolved by sacrificing a protected future first-rounder for Jeff Green. The Blazers are getting bodies back, and they are a damn good team when they’re healthy. Meyers Leonard has shot lights-out in earning a rotation spot over the last five weeks, but the team’s other young bench guys are unproven and with uncertain upside.
LaMarcus Aldridge is gutting through a thumb injury, Chris Kaman has fallen off a cliff, and Nicolas Batum can’t put one good week together. The Blazers have their own first-round pick to trade, plus some handy expiring deals attached to Thomas Robinson and Dorell Wright. If GM Neil Olshey is willing to sweat it out until the deadline, he might be able to snag one of the Denver wings — Chandler or Afflalo — for that kind of price. Tayshaun Prince and Marcus Thornton are buyout candidates in Boston, but they’re not two-way players on the level of the Denver wings.
It’s easy to suggest that Portland deal its 2015 first-rounder for depth on the wing. It’s going to end up in the mid-20s, where the average return is a borderline rotation player. And while the Grizzlies had already dealt a first-rounder to Cleveland before flipping another for Green, the Blazers have all of their first-round picks going forward. With three starters set to hit free agency, Portland has every incentive to chase the ring now.
Adding a quality wing would boost Portland’s title odds, but by how much? Winning three series in the West is a brutal task, and the combination of health, luck, and matchups will play a larger role in determining Portland’s fate than the gap between Chandler and the rest of the Blazers’ bench wings.
Portland could also use some future depth. Both C.J. McCollum and Will Barton have shown flashes, but the Blazers can’t be sure at this point whether either has a big-time future on the team. McCollum has dealt with injuries, but he’s also going to be 24 before next season. Barton is a restricted free agent this summer and wants to play. Portland didn’t have a first-round pick in last year’s draft and has dealt away all of its second-rounders through 2018. Paul Allen’s money can buy back second-round picks, but teams don’t sell first-rounders anymore.
Portland’s 2015 first-rounder might be a long shot, but Olshey’s a smart GM, and it represents a precious chance to restock with a quality player on a cost-controlled rookie deal. It matters. It’s also fair to wonder what Barton and McCollum might be today had Terry Stotts, a wonderful coach, been a bit more willing to let them play through their mistakes. If the Hawks and Spurs have taught us anything, it’s that there is value in seeing what every guy on the roster can do. Aron Baynes starts in random intervals for San Antonio. Mike Budenholzer makes sure to play Elton Brand every week or so, just to keep him ready, and Kent Bazemore has slowly emerged as a legit rotation piece.
A few executives have mentioned the possibility that coaches could use the extra-long All-Star break to do even more film study, find some rotation space for fringe guys, and make some X’s-and-O’s tweaks. With just 25 or so games to go, perhaps that kind of thing has more potential to goose internal improvement than bringing in an outside part at this late stage.
There’s no right answer. Dealing their first-round pick might not be a monumental risk for the Blazers, but it would carry some cost. I bet they do it.
The Best of the Rest
Those are the big story lines, but there are little things to follow. Golden State will sniff out some David Lee tax relief deals, and it’d love to at least talk to Garnett about waiving his no-trade clause — provided the Nets can find enough salary relief elsewhere.
The Pelicans will look for a small forward, but they’re not trading Ryan Anderson for some run-of-the-mill wing player — especially with Quincy Pondexter giving them solid minutes. The Clips and Heat will try to turn nothing into something. The Hawks have freaking $4.9 million in cap room, which seems unfair. They could sign a free agent or absorb extra salary in a lopsided trade.
The Magic will look to move little side pieces like Andrew Nicholson and Maurice Harkless, though it wouldn’t be a shocker if a front office that might be in some danger searches for something juicier. The Bulls and Spurs have assets in the cupboard, but neither has much record of in-season go-for-it deals. I could see the Bucks trying to dump Ersan Ilyasova, even if he’s the only traditional power forward left on the roster.
The Sixers are still $13 million below the salary floor, though given the light penalties for coming in beneath that level, it’s unclear whether Philly even cares. They’ll try to wring assets from teams that need to dump money, but given how many future picks they already have, the Sixers may be content to stand pat if they don’t get a deal they love.
Bank on this: Something unexpected will happen. Embrace the craziness.
Masai Ujiri talked at length with me in late December about how hard it was just deciding whether the Raptors, as a strong team in a weak conference, are true title contenders or something more ambiguous, a notch or two below the elite. He vowed that he would not do any trade that sacrificed even a small piece of the future for a one-season upgrade.
The Raps blazed into the All-Star break, but their defense is shaky and they have two expendable expiring contracts in Landry Fields and Chuck Hayes. Those guys alone won’t get you anything, but the Raps have a couple of future assets that have declined enough in value that Ujiri might include them in the right deal: their own first-round pick and Terrence Ross. (The same doesn’t apply to the 2016 Knicks first-rounder Toronto owns thanks to the ridiculous Andrea Bargnani heist.) Their own pick is a lock to fall in the mid-20s, and though this front office could absolutely nail a pick that low, the odds are always against it.
Ross has been coming off the bench since mid-January, and though he can shoot, the rest of his game has stagnated — especially his defense. The Raps are listening to incoming offers on Ross, per several league sources, and a couple of power forwards on borderline playoff teams stand out as intriguing targets: David West and Kevin Garnett.
Garnett would have to waive his no-trade clause, and he does not enjoy change. West is an even trickier case. He has been available off and on in exchange for a first-round pick over the last couple of months, per several league sources, but Paul George’s potential mid-March return could change Indiana’s deadline stance. The Pacers are three games behind the no. 8 slot in the loss column, with a relatively easy and home-heavy schedule the rest of the way. If George really comes back on March 14 in Boston, as Marc Spears of Yahoo relayed over the weekend, Indy would have him for 18 of its final 28 games.
But it wouldn’t be getting peak George, and Indy has to jump over three teams — Boston, Detroit, and Brooklyn — just to get into the no. 9 slot. Trading West could accelerate a mini-rebuild, but West’s $12.6 million player option for next season is an unpleasant pill. Corey Brewer quietly declined his own player option to grease his trade to Houston, but West’s option is much bigger, and he can’t afford to close off any paths to money as he approaches 35. It’s unclear whether any team — Toronto, Charlotte, or someone else — is primed to surrender a first-round pick for West. If the Pacers can’t find a hungry taker, they might stay the course and settle for a smaller move.
West’s option could eat into Toronto’s cap room, though it won’t have any if it brings back both Amir Johnson and Lou Williams.5 It’s tempting to suggest a Utah-Toronto deal revolving around Ross and the ornery Enes Kanter, a swap that could in theory balance out both rosters in the right places. But Kanter’s representatives are a little nuts, and there aren’t many teams stoked to pay his next contract.
Kanter is a tweener who probably leans more toward the center spot but can’t protect the rim or do the other things on defense that teams need from centers. The power forward position is absolutely loaded around the league, and teams aren’t much interested in bigs who can’t shoot 3s or patrol the hoop. Kanter is a skilled player — a post-up bruiser with a nose for offensive rebounds and a sweet jumper. He has worked a bit harder on defense this year, though the results haven’t come — not shocking, since he’s just 22.
Kanter could follow Greg Monroe’s path to two-way respectability, but he’d have to earn many more free throws and improve his passing exponentially. Every path on Kanter’s decision tree points to “shoot” — he has just 26 assists all season, which is kind of laughable considering how much Quin Snyder has his bigs handling the ball around the elbows.
Finding a workable deal for Kanter is tough. Boston already has stretchy bigs who struggle with rim protection. The Kings don’t need another ball-dominant post guy next to Boogie. Kanter doesn’t fit Indy’s defense-first culture, and while Portland needs healthy bigs, it’d be reluctant to jeopardize its chemistry. The ever-active Hornets could view Kanter as an heir apparent to Al Jefferson, but they’re in a playoff chase, and Utah would throw the phone on the floor at the mere mention of Lance Stephenson. A Dragic-Kanter swap makes some theoretical sense given the roster needs of each team, but Utah is not the sort of market that can bank on retaining unrestricted free agents. The Lakers are intriguing but could chase Kanter in restricted free agency — a game the Lakers usually sit out.
Utah will seek out deals, and it has to be prepared to accept a little less than equal value given Kanter’s impending payday and reputation. The Jazz could also hope the market proves cooler than expected, and that they’ll be able to retain him at a reasonable price with an eye on dealing him later.
Toronto may have a bigger need on the wing than at power forward, where the combination of Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson, and James Johnson (in small lineups) is fine. James Johnson provides needed bulk on the wing, but with Ross’s future unclear, the Raps could use some true wing depth to beef up around Williams, Greivis Vasquez, and DeMar DeRozan. They could sniff around the Denver guys, but a lot of the other potentially available wings — including Gerald Green and Tim Hardaway Jr. — are even worse defenders than Ross.
Phoenix
The Suns are clinging to the no. 8 slot after losing five of six, including yet another rim-backboard-rim-basket heartbreaker at the buzzer. Ryan McDonough, the team’s GM, mentioned the need to balance out the roster in a recent radio interview, and we’ve already covered some of the Dragic possibilities. The Suns want to make the playoffs. Even if they’re afraid Dragic walks, they can’t afford to toss him away without getting a real player in return.
It’s very hard to find a good big man on a team that might be willing to deal for Dragic on an expiring contract. The Rockets loom, and while the Lakers always bank on the glitz of L.A., I’m not sure Jordan Hill cuts it as a frontcourt upgrade for Phoenix. As I reported in December, other teams have long felt that Phoenix would prefer dealing Isaiah Thomas; he has three years left on a contract that declines in value every season, and that opens up a broader trade market.
It also opens up the possibility of Phoenix dropping from three starting-caliber point guards to just one if Dragic leaves after a Thomas trade. But Phoenix in that scenario could pivot to cap space, and it’s still well stocked with future picks and young players. And Phoenix may well just shrug and dole out $35 million combined per season to keep all three point guards for now; it already plays two of them together for most of every game, and that $35 million doesn’t look so insane with the cap set to leap and Markieff Morris locked up on a knockout deal.
The Portland Dilemma
Portland faces a version of the dilemma Memphis resolved by sacrificing a protected future first-rounder for Jeff Green. The Blazers are getting bodies back, and they are a damn good team when they’re healthy. Meyers Leonard has shot lights-out in earning a rotation spot over the last five weeks, but the team’s other young bench guys are unproven and with uncertain upside.
LaMarcus Aldridge is gutting through a thumb injury, Chris Kaman has fallen off a cliff, and Nicolas Batum can’t put one good week together. The Blazers have their own first-round pick to trade, plus some handy expiring deals attached to Thomas Robinson and Dorell Wright. If GM Neil Olshey is willing to sweat it out until the deadline, he might be able to snag one of the Denver wings — Chandler or Afflalo — for that kind of price. Tayshaun Prince and Marcus Thornton are buyout candidates in Boston, but they’re not two-way players on the level of the Denver wings.
It’s easy to suggest that Portland deal its 2015 first-rounder for depth on the wing. It’s going to end up in the mid-20s, where the average return is a borderline rotation player. And while the Grizzlies had already dealt a first-rounder to Cleveland before flipping another for Green, the Blazers have all of their first-round picks going forward. With three starters set to hit free agency, Portland has every incentive to chase the ring now.
Adding a quality wing would boost Portland’s title odds, but by how much? Winning three series in the West is a brutal task, and the combination of health, luck, and matchups will play a larger role in determining Portland’s fate than the gap between Chandler and the rest of the Blazers’ bench wings.
Portland could also use some future depth. Both C.J. McCollum and Will Barton have shown flashes, but the Blazers can’t be sure at this point whether either has a big-time future on the team. McCollum has dealt with injuries, but he’s also going to be 24 before next season. Barton is a restricted free agent this summer and wants to play. Portland didn’t have a first-round pick in last year’s draft and has dealt away all of its second-rounders through 2018. Paul Allen’s money can buy back second-round picks, but teams don’t sell first-rounders anymore.
Portland’s 2015 first-rounder might be a long shot, but Olshey’s a smart GM, and it represents a precious chance to restock with a quality player on a cost-controlled rookie deal. It matters. It’s also fair to wonder what Barton and McCollum might be today had Terry Stotts, a wonderful coach, been a bit more willing to let them play through their mistakes. If the Hawks and Spurs have taught us anything, it’s that there is value in seeing what every guy on the roster can do. Aron Baynes starts in random intervals for San Antonio. Mike Budenholzer makes sure to play Elton Brand every week or so, just to keep him ready, and Kent Bazemore has slowly emerged as a legit rotation piece.
A few executives have mentioned the possibility that coaches could use the extra-long All-Star break to do even more film study, find some rotation space for fringe guys, and make some X’s-and-O’s tweaks. With just 25 or so games to go, perhaps that kind of thing has more potential to goose internal improvement than bringing in an outside part at this late stage.
There’s no right answer. Dealing their first-round pick might not be a monumental risk for the Blazers, but it would carry some cost. I bet they do it.
The Best of the Rest
Those are the big story lines, but there are little things to follow. Golden State will sniff out some David Lee tax relief deals, and it’d love to at least talk to Garnett about waiving his no-trade clause — provided the Nets can find enough salary relief elsewhere.
The Pelicans will look for a small forward, but they’re not trading Ryan Anderson for some run-of-the-mill wing player — especially with Quincy Pondexter giving them solid minutes. The Clips and Heat will try to turn nothing into something. The Hawks have freaking $4.9 million in cap room, which seems unfair. They could sign a free agent or absorb extra salary in a lopsided trade.
The Magic will look to move little side pieces like Andrew Nicholson and Maurice Harkless, though it wouldn’t be a shocker if a front office that might be in some danger searches for something juicier. The Bulls and Spurs have assets in the cupboard, but neither has much record of in-season go-for-it deals. I could see the Bucks trying to dump Ersan Ilyasova, even if he’s the only traditional power forward left on the roster.
The Sixers are still $13 million below the salary floor, though given the light penalties for coming in beneath that level, it’s unclear whether Philly even cares. They’ll try to wring assets from teams that need to dump money, but given how many future picks they already have, the Sixers may be content to stand pat if they don’t get a deal they love.
Bank on this: Something unexpected will happen. Embrace the craziness.
TFIR
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Part of an article on the draft here. Goes to show that late first rounders are over-valued. In other words, we stole Mozgov. It lists the "expected" guy in a slot. Then, the ceiling, then the floor left to right.
D.R.A.F.T. Initiative: Pick-based analysis
Updated: June 2, 2009, 4:33 PM ET
If there is a guiding principle of the NBA draft, it's the notion of "upside." Teams envision the best-case scenario for every prospect; fans assume players will meet all expectations and comparisons.
Here at Insider, though, we're all about reality. And history has taught us that more often than not, draft picks don't exactly measure up to the hype, albeit not always on a Darko/Dirk scale. To determine what is realistic, then, we looked back at the past 20 drafts (beginning in 1989, when the NBA pared the draft to two rounds) and examined the value produced at each slot. The chart below shows the end result of a complicated process of number crunching.
Using John Hollinger's estimated wins added statistic, plus some nifty regression analysis, we were able to determine an expected value for every pick in the draft, independent of this year's specific teams or players. The next column shows the actual average EWA for each pick. We have included the best and worst players drafted at each slot, based on EWA -- think of this as a ceiling and a floor -- as well as the drafted player who comes closest to resembling the expected EWA for a given pick. That's the caliber of player you should expect your team to select.
From now through the draft, we'll expand on all of these concepts, and we'll also examine the best and worst breeding grounds of talent, team-based drafting tendencies and players' career arcs based on whether they entered the draft out of high school, college or the international ranks.
For now, familiarize yourself with the table below, as well as its team-based counterpart. And then recalibrate your expectations.
ROUND 1
No. eEWA EWA Expected Ceiling Floor
1 7.8 9.7 Chris Webber (10.2) LeBron James (24.1) M. Olowokandi (-0.2)
2 6.4 6.4 Marcus Camby (6.4) Gary Payton (12.3) Danny Ferry (0.5)
3 5.6 6.2 J. Stackhouse (5.9) Pau Gasol (13.9) Adam Morrison (-1.8)
4 5.0 6.1 Donyell Marshall (4.8) Chris Paul (20.6) Shaun Livingston (0.3)
5 4.5 6.1 Juwan Howard (4.5) Kevin Garnett (18.1) N. Tskitshvili (-0.8)
6 4.2 1.9 Tom Gugliotta (3.9) Brandon Roy (12.5) Dajuan Wagner (-0.2)
7 3.8 2.6 Jason Williams (3.6) Richard Hamilton (7.3) Corey Brewer (-1.2)
8 3.6 2.3 T.J. Ford (3.9) Andre Miller (9.9) Rafael Araujo (-0.7)
9 3.3 4.4 Rodney Rogers (2.5) Dirk Nowitzki (17.8) Eric Montross (-0.5)
10 3.1 3.7 Erick Dampier (2.9) Paul Pierce (13.8) Luke Jackson (-0.1)
11 2.9 2.1 Tyrone Hill (2.3) Terrell Brandon (6.2) Fran Vazquez (DNP)
12 2.8 1.2 Nick Collison (2.8) Mookie Blaylock (6.0) Alec Kessler (-0.5)
13 2.6 3.5 C. Williamson (2.6) Kobe Bryant (16.7) Sebastian Telfair (-0.4)
14 2.4 1.8 Al Thornton (2.0) Tim Hardaway (7.7) Mateen Cleaves (-0.3)
15 2.3 1.8 Kelvin Cato (1.5) Steve Nash (10.0) Anthony Avent (-0.5)
16 2.2 1.7 Terry Mills (2.0) Ron Artest (5.7) Bryce Drew (-0.5)
17 2.0 2.3 Bobby Sura (1.9) Shawn Kemp (7.9) Johnny Taylor (-0.1)
18 1.9 1.0 James Posey (1.9) David West (7.5) Jason Collins (-3.0)
19 1.8 0.8 Dee Brown (2.0) Zach Randolph (7.8) Quincy Lewis (-0.4)
20 1.7 1.0 R. Balkman (1.7) Z. Ilgauskas (6.5) Kareem Rush (-0.7)
21 1.6 1.9 Jon Barry (1.7) Rajon Rondo (5.8) Daequan Cook (-1.4)
22 1.5 0.5 Oliver Miller (1.6) Jarrett Jack (2.7) Casey Jacobsen (-0.7)
23 1.4 1.0 Wilson Chandler (1.4) Tayshaun Prince (5.2) Lee Mayberry (-0.3)
24 1.4 2.0 Nenad Krstic (1.4) Sam Cassell (8.4) Rodrick Rhodes (-0.2)
25 1.3 0.5 Tony Allen (1.3) Gerald Wallace (5.4) Johan Petro (-0.4)
26 1.2 1.4 Charlie Ward (1.3) Vlade Divac (7.5) Lance Blanks (-0.1)
27 1.1 0.7 Primoz Brezec (0.9) Elden Campbell (4.2) Arron Afflalo (-0.8)
28 1.0 1.0 Lucious Harris (0.9) Tony Parker (9.5) Donte Greene (-2.1)
29 1.0 0.9 D.J. White (0.6) Josh Howard (7.2) Trenton Hassell (-2.3)
30 0.9 0.9 O. Harrington (0.8) Gilbert Arenas (9.8) Maciej Lampe (-0.1)
D.R.A.F.T. Initiative: Pick-based analysis
Updated: June 2, 2009, 4:33 PM ET
If there is a guiding principle of the NBA draft, it's the notion of "upside." Teams envision the best-case scenario for every prospect; fans assume players will meet all expectations and comparisons.
Here at Insider, though, we're all about reality. And history has taught us that more often than not, draft picks don't exactly measure up to the hype, albeit not always on a Darko/Dirk scale. To determine what is realistic, then, we looked back at the past 20 drafts (beginning in 1989, when the NBA pared the draft to two rounds) and examined the value produced at each slot. The chart below shows the end result of a complicated process of number crunching.
Using John Hollinger's estimated wins added statistic, plus some nifty regression analysis, we were able to determine an expected value for every pick in the draft, independent of this year's specific teams or players. The next column shows the actual average EWA for each pick. We have included the best and worst players drafted at each slot, based on EWA -- think of this as a ceiling and a floor -- as well as the drafted player who comes closest to resembling the expected EWA for a given pick. That's the caliber of player you should expect your team to select.
From now through the draft, we'll expand on all of these concepts, and we'll also examine the best and worst breeding grounds of talent, team-based drafting tendencies and players' career arcs based on whether they entered the draft out of high school, college or the international ranks.
For now, familiarize yourself with the table below, as well as its team-based counterpart. And then recalibrate your expectations.
ROUND 1
No. eEWA EWA Expected Ceiling Floor
1 7.8 9.7 Chris Webber (10.2) LeBron James (24.1) M. Olowokandi (-0.2)
2 6.4 6.4 Marcus Camby (6.4) Gary Payton (12.3) Danny Ferry (0.5)
3 5.6 6.2 J. Stackhouse (5.9) Pau Gasol (13.9) Adam Morrison (-1.8)
4 5.0 6.1 Donyell Marshall (4.8) Chris Paul (20.6) Shaun Livingston (0.3)
5 4.5 6.1 Juwan Howard (4.5) Kevin Garnett (18.1) N. Tskitshvili (-0.8)
6 4.2 1.9 Tom Gugliotta (3.9) Brandon Roy (12.5) Dajuan Wagner (-0.2)
7 3.8 2.6 Jason Williams (3.6) Richard Hamilton (7.3) Corey Brewer (-1.2)
8 3.6 2.3 T.J. Ford (3.9) Andre Miller (9.9) Rafael Araujo (-0.7)
9 3.3 4.4 Rodney Rogers (2.5) Dirk Nowitzki (17.8) Eric Montross (-0.5)
10 3.1 3.7 Erick Dampier (2.9) Paul Pierce (13.8) Luke Jackson (-0.1)
11 2.9 2.1 Tyrone Hill (2.3) Terrell Brandon (6.2) Fran Vazquez (DNP)
12 2.8 1.2 Nick Collison (2.8) Mookie Blaylock (6.0) Alec Kessler (-0.5)
13 2.6 3.5 C. Williamson (2.6) Kobe Bryant (16.7) Sebastian Telfair (-0.4)
14 2.4 1.8 Al Thornton (2.0) Tim Hardaway (7.7) Mateen Cleaves (-0.3)
15 2.3 1.8 Kelvin Cato (1.5) Steve Nash (10.0) Anthony Avent (-0.5)
16 2.2 1.7 Terry Mills (2.0) Ron Artest (5.7) Bryce Drew (-0.5)
17 2.0 2.3 Bobby Sura (1.9) Shawn Kemp (7.9) Johnny Taylor (-0.1)
18 1.9 1.0 James Posey (1.9) David West (7.5) Jason Collins (-3.0)
19 1.8 0.8 Dee Brown (2.0) Zach Randolph (7.8) Quincy Lewis (-0.4)
20 1.7 1.0 R. Balkman (1.7) Z. Ilgauskas (6.5) Kareem Rush (-0.7)
21 1.6 1.9 Jon Barry (1.7) Rajon Rondo (5.8) Daequan Cook (-1.4)
22 1.5 0.5 Oliver Miller (1.6) Jarrett Jack (2.7) Casey Jacobsen (-0.7)
23 1.4 1.0 Wilson Chandler (1.4) Tayshaun Prince (5.2) Lee Mayberry (-0.3)
24 1.4 2.0 Nenad Krstic (1.4) Sam Cassell (8.4) Rodrick Rhodes (-0.2)
25 1.3 0.5 Tony Allen (1.3) Gerald Wallace (5.4) Johan Petro (-0.4)
26 1.2 1.4 Charlie Ward (1.3) Vlade Divac (7.5) Lance Blanks (-0.1)
27 1.1 0.7 Primoz Brezec (0.9) Elden Campbell (4.2) Arron Afflalo (-0.8)
28 1.0 1.0 Lucious Harris (0.9) Tony Parker (9.5) Donte Greene (-2.1)
29 1.0 0.9 D.J. White (0.6) Josh Howard (7.2) Trenton Hassell (-2.3)
30 0.9 0.9 O. Harrington (0.8) Gilbert Arenas (9.8) Maciej Lampe (-0.1)
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FiveThirtyEight - Every NBA Team’s Chance Of Winning In Every Minute Across Every Game
The 3Q has always seemed to be a weak spot for the Lebron James lead Cavs. The Bulls and Heat are interesting as the switch over the 50% line.
Interactive Chart
The 3Q has always seemed to be a weak spot for the Lebron James lead Cavs. The Bulls and Heat are interesting as the switch over the 50% line.
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This really surprised me. That Utah virtually GAVE Kanter away.
Monson: Jazz need more than what they got for Enes Kanter
By GORDON MONSON | Tribune Columnist
First Published Feb 19 2015 08:03PM • Updated 8 hours ago
Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin, left, defends Utah Jazz center Enes Kanter during the fourth quarter of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2015, in Salt Lake City. The Clippers won 94-89. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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"The present screams while the future whispers, but the future always comes due."
— Dennis Lindsey, Jazz general manager
On Thursday, the present did its share of screaming around the Utah Jazz and the future was barely heard. Every Jazz fan is left to patiently or impatiently hear and envision what that future will eventually bring.
The team that has openly hurled itself into a rebuild sent one of its growing prospects into the arms of a Western Conference rival, for it to develop moving forward.
Enes Kanter, as of last week the Jazz's wild child, was traded, along with Steve Novak, by the team shortly before the NBA trade deadline for … what exactly? Kendrick Perkins, who will be bought out, and a protected first-round pick from Oklahoma City and a second-round pick from Detroit, as well as OKC's rights to a large-bodied German named Tibor Pleiss who once played for the Cologne 99ers and 21-year-old Grant Jerrett who played for the Tulsa 66ers.
Lindsey called that return a "significant haul."
It amounts to a salary dump and a first-round selection that could well be outside the lottery. In other words, the Jazz get cash, two picks that are crapshoots, and a 7-foot center that tore up the German League before joining FC Barcelona and an unproven 6-10 forward who supposedly can shoot.
Man.
What the Jazz need is something, someone, to help them win. Not five years from now, no, in two or three. You know, while we're young.
This season and next are still about growth and development. That's understandable and understood. But the Jazz can't keep dumping salaries and letting No. 3 picks in the draft walk away, the present making all kinds of noise, for some vague promise about a brighter far-off future with all its whispers.
The fan base has to have something to believe in now. Something it can see and grab ahold of and hang onto, even as the team goes on bouncing through undulations that test the loyalties of even a reasonable group of fans. At some point, the whole not-skipping-steps thing has to take real steps forward. Not just through the growth of players already on board, which is nice and all, but via valuable, useful additions from the outside, positive movements brought forth by Lindsey and company.
When asked on Thursday why the Jazz made this deal, Lindsey said the progress of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward all factored in. He said the added financial flexibility, with the trading of Kanter and Novak, would give the Jazz more room to pay other players at some juncture: "The salary-cap flexibility we had, we were able to increase that."
He added: "In the short-term, we lost a skilled player [Kanter] today … but our goals are long-term. It's a long, arduous process to raise a young team."
One thing that would make that process less arduous and more palatable for everyone around here would be news of a wink-wink deal that, say, Paul Millsap, a free agent at season's end, will rejoin the Jazz by way of the money the club has saved.
Now, that would mean something.
If not Paul, then, somebody.
That might be what this is all about. Gaining those resources for convenience under future cap space. Novak's deal alone was worth $4 million.
Monson: Jazz need more than what they got for Enes Kanter
By GORDON MONSON | Tribune Columnist
First Published Feb 19 2015 08:03PM • Updated 8 hours ago
Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin, left, defends Utah Jazz center Enes Kanter during the fourth quarter of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2015, in Salt Lake City. The Clippers won 94-89. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Single pageShare This Article
"The present screams while the future whispers, but the future always comes due."
— Dennis Lindsey, Jazz general manager
On Thursday, the present did its share of screaming around the Utah Jazz and the future was barely heard. Every Jazz fan is left to patiently or impatiently hear and envision what that future will eventually bring.
The team that has openly hurled itself into a rebuild sent one of its growing prospects into the arms of a Western Conference rival, for it to develop moving forward.
Enes Kanter, as of last week the Jazz's wild child, was traded, along with Steve Novak, by the team shortly before the NBA trade deadline for … what exactly? Kendrick Perkins, who will be bought out, and a protected first-round pick from Oklahoma City and a second-round pick from Detroit, as well as OKC's rights to a large-bodied German named Tibor Pleiss who once played for the Cologne 99ers and 21-year-old Grant Jerrett who played for the Tulsa 66ers.
Lindsey called that return a "significant haul."
It amounts to a salary dump and a first-round selection that could well be outside the lottery. In other words, the Jazz get cash, two picks that are crapshoots, and a 7-foot center that tore up the German League before joining FC Barcelona and an unproven 6-10 forward who supposedly can shoot.
Man.
What the Jazz need is something, someone, to help them win. Not five years from now, no, in two or three. You know, while we're young.
This season and next are still about growth and development. That's understandable and understood. But the Jazz can't keep dumping salaries and letting No. 3 picks in the draft walk away, the present making all kinds of noise, for some vague promise about a brighter far-off future with all its whispers.
The fan base has to have something to believe in now. Something it can see and grab ahold of and hang onto, even as the team goes on bouncing through undulations that test the loyalties of even a reasonable group of fans. At some point, the whole not-skipping-steps thing has to take real steps forward. Not just through the growth of players already on board, which is nice and all, but via valuable, useful additions from the outside, positive movements brought forth by Lindsey and company.
When asked on Thursday why the Jazz made this deal, Lindsey said the progress of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward all factored in. He said the added financial flexibility, with the trading of Kanter and Novak, would give the Jazz more room to pay other players at some juncture: "The salary-cap flexibility we had, we were able to increase that."
He added: "In the short-term, we lost a skilled player [Kanter] today … but our goals are long-term. It's a long, arduous process to raise a young team."
One thing that would make that process less arduous and more palatable for everyone around here would be news of a wink-wink deal that, say, Paul Millsap, a free agent at season's end, will rejoin the Jazz by way of the money the club has saved.
Now, that would mean something.
If not Paul, then, somebody.
That might be what this is all about. Gaining those resources for convenience under future cap space. Novak's deal alone was worth $4 million.
TFIR
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Jason Kidd finds his long-armed pupil in Michael Carter-Williams
By Ricky O'Donnell
@SBN_Ricky on Feb 19, 2015, 8:48p 12
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Jason Kidd surely sees a version of himself in Michael Carter-Williams. Now, it's his job to develop the long-armed youngster and build the scariest modern defense in the league.
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Jason Kidd's departure from the Brooklyn Nets was painted with a variety of different words all rooted in the same tone. If Kidd wasn't outwardly called selfish for manufacturing his way out of Brooklyn and into Milwaukee, the idea was strongly suggested.
Kidd made a power play, plain and simple, by trying to overthrow his boss, Billy King. It was a ploy depicted as egomaniacal and maybe even a little crazy. Kidd had just finished his first year as a head coach, but he was still shameless enough to channel one of the great minds from another sport. Much like Bill Parcells, if Kidd was cooking the meal, he'd like to be able to buy the groceries, too.
Seven months later, it appears that Kidd wasn't self-absorbed as much as he was forward-thinking. While the Nets have traded away every future draft pick for an aging roster that wasn't good enough to get past the second round of the playoffs in the East, the Bucks have an appealing young foundation. After finishing 15-67 a year ago, Milwaukee now sits in sixth place in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Kidd has quickly built the Bucks in his image.
It was a transition that continued on Thursday when Milwaukee shoehorned its way into a buzzer-beating deal to land the team a new point guard. Brandon Knight is out and Michael Carter-Williams is in.
Knight was having a fine season for the Bucks, but his impending restricted free agency meant he was about to see a hefty pay raise. Milwaukee saw an opportunity to make a move when Goran Dragic's trade demand set off an explosion of activity around the league and jumped at the chance to swap essentially swap Knight for the second-year point-guard from the Philadelphia 76ers, some frontcourt depth in Miles Plumlee and prospect Tyler Ennis.
The acquisition of Carter-Williams is the continuation of a trend Milwaukee has been developing since Kidd's arrival. Carter-Williams is another long, rangy athlete capable of defending multiple positions. He'll fit right in with Kidd's Bucks.
The defensive evolution of the Bucks under Kidd has been nothing short of remarkable. This was a team that finished as the second-worst defense in the NBA last year. This season, they're second best. Carter-Williams arrives with the second-best defense regularized adjusted plus minus among point guards in the NBA (Knight was No. 39). Much like the rest of Milwaukee's roster, he has long arms and forces a ton of turnovers.
Just how long are the Bucks? Here's a look at length of the players Kidd can throw out:
Name Height Wingspan Age
Michael Carter-Williams 6'6 6'7 23
Giannis Antetokounmpo 6'11 7'5 20
Khris Middleton 6'8 6'11 23
Jabari Parker 6'8.5 6'11.5 19
John Henson 6'10.5 7'5 24
The construction of this roster might remind you of the only team ahead of Milwaukee in defensive efficiency right now: the Golden State Warriors. Golden State made its own jump up the defensive rankings by placing an emphasis on wingspan and athleticism over pure height. David Lee was out, Draymond Green was in. At 6'7, Green is woefully undersized to defend NBA power forwards, but he has a 7'1 wingspan, bountiful athleticism and a fearlessness that belies his lack of height.
Golden State is the closest a team has come to achieving the fever dream of the modern NBA: a squad that can switch every assignment defensively and smother the opposition with long arms reaching from every part of the court. Milwaukee is just taking that one step further.
Of course, there's one major difference between Golden State and Milwaukee. The Warriors have the Splash Brothers, the Bucks have Middleton and a lot of unproven shooters around him. Carter-Williams fits right in there, too. For all of his gifts as a playmaker and defender, he's the type of point guard other teams will bait into taking deep jump shots.
Something about that must be endearing to Kidd. For the first few years of his career, Kidd picked up an unflattering nickname: Ason Kidd, because he had no J. By the end of his playing days, Kidd was a knockdown shooter and is now No. 5 on the NBA's all-time list of three-pointers made. That's the type of transformation Carter-Williams needs to make. The master has found his apprentice.
Philadelphia was seven points per 100 possessions better defensively with Carter-Williams on the floor, though it gave some of that back on the other end. With his help, the Sixers climbed into the top half of the league in defensive efficiency, ahead of even a normal juggernaut like the Chicago Bulls. The arrival of Carter-Williams is only going to make the Bucks better on that end. With a thoroughbred athlete like Antetokounmpo in the mix, it's easy to see the Bucks turning defense to offense in a hurry.
As a player, that was Kidd's M.O. as well. He has the second most steals of any player in NBA history. He spent years as an unreliable shooter, but no one was better at probing a defense for holes with the ball in his hands or pressing ball handlers defensively. Carter-Williams admittedly has a long way to go as a player, but under Kidd's tutelage and within the Bucks' forest of length, there's a better chance for development in Milwaukee than inside of Philadelphia's wretched ecosystem.
If Kidd can do this much this fast with the Bucks defense, it's scary to think how the future could unfold. Imagine Parker as the prodigious scorer, Antetokounmpo as the swiss army knife and Middleton as the prototypical three-and-D guy with Carter-Williams running the show and everyone causing havoc defensively.
Wingspan might not be a market inefficiency for long, but the Bucks just laid a foundation based on length and youth that could be a problem in the East for years
By Ricky O'Donnell
@SBN_Ricky on Feb 19, 2015, 8:48p 12
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Jason Kidd surely sees a version of himself in Michael Carter-Williams. Now, it's his job to develop the long-armed youngster and build the scariest modern defense in the league.
Tweet (67) Share (379)
Pin
Jason Kidd's departure from the Brooklyn Nets was painted with a variety of different words all rooted in the same tone. If Kidd wasn't outwardly called selfish for manufacturing his way out of Brooklyn and into Milwaukee, the idea was strongly suggested.
Kidd made a power play, plain and simple, by trying to overthrow his boss, Billy King. It was a ploy depicted as egomaniacal and maybe even a little crazy. Kidd had just finished his first year as a head coach, but he was still shameless enough to channel one of the great minds from another sport. Much like Bill Parcells, if Kidd was cooking the meal, he'd like to be able to buy the groceries, too.
Seven months later, it appears that Kidd wasn't self-absorbed as much as he was forward-thinking. While the Nets have traded away every future draft pick for an aging roster that wasn't good enough to get past the second round of the playoffs in the East, the Bucks have an appealing young foundation. After finishing 15-67 a year ago, Milwaukee now sits in sixth place in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Kidd has quickly built the Bucks in his image.
It was a transition that continued on Thursday when Milwaukee shoehorned its way into a buzzer-beating deal to land the team a new point guard. Brandon Knight is out and Michael Carter-Williams is in.
Knight was having a fine season for the Bucks, but his impending restricted free agency meant he was about to see a hefty pay raise. Milwaukee saw an opportunity to make a move when Goran Dragic's trade demand set off an explosion of activity around the league and jumped at the chance to swap essentially swap Knight for the second-year point-guard from the Philadelphia 76ers, some frontcourt depth in Miles Plumlee and prospect Tyler Ennis.
The acquisition of Carter-Williams is the continuation of a trend Milwaukee has been developing since Kidd's arrival. Carter-Williams is another long, rangy athlete capable of defending multiple positions. He'll fit right in with Kidd's Bucks.
The defensive evolution of the Bucks under Kidd has been nothing short of remarkable. This was a team that finished as the second-worst defense in the NBA last year. This season, they're second best. Carter-Williams arrives with the second-best defense regularized adjusted plus minus among point guards in the NBA (Knight was No. 39). Much like the rest of Milwaukee's roster, he has long arms and forces a ton of turnovers.
Just how long are the Bucks? Here's a look at length of the players Kidd can throw out:
Name Height Wingspan Age
Michael Carter-Williams 6'6 6'7 23
Giannis Antetokounmpo 6'11 7'5 20
Khris Middleton 6'8 6'11 23
Jabari Parker 6'8.5 6'11.5 19
John Henson 6'10.5 7'5 24
The construction of this roster might remind you of the only team ahead of Milwaukee in defensive efficiency right now: the Golden State Warriors. Golden State made its own jump up the defensive rankings by placing an emphasis on wingspan and athleticism over pure height. David Lee was out, Draymond Green was in. At 6'7, Green is woefully undersized to defend NBA power forwards, but he has a 7'1 wingspan, bountiful athleticism and a fearlessness that belies his lack of height.
Golden State is the closest a team has come to achieving the fever dream of the modern NBA: a squad that can switch every assignment defensively and smother the opposition with long arms reaching from every part of the court. Milwaukee is just taking that one step further.
Of course, there's one major difference between Golden State and Milwaukee. The Warriors have the Splash Brothers, the Bucks have Middleton and a lot of unproven shooters around him. Carter-Williams fits right in there, too. For all of his gifts as a playmaker and defender, he's the type of point guard other teams will bait into taking deep jump shots.
Something about that must be endearing to Kidd. For the first few years of his career, Kidd picked up an unflattering nickname: Ason Kidd, because he had no J. By the end of his playing days, Kidd was a knockdown shooter and is now No. 5 on the NBA's all-time list of three-pointers made. That's the type of transformation Carter-Williams needs to make. The master has found his apprentice.
Philadelphia was seven points per 100 possessions better defensively with Carter-Williams on the floor, though it gave some of that back on the other end. With his help, the Sixers climbed into the top half of the league in defensive efficiency, ahead of even a normal juggernaut like the Chicago Bulls. The arrival of Carter-Williams is only going to make the Bucks better on that end. With a thoroughbred athlete like Antetokounmpo in the mix, it's easy to see the Bucks turning defense to offense in a hurry.
As a player, that was Kidd's M.O. as well. He has the second most steals of any player in NBA history. He spent years as an unreliable shooter, but no one was better at probing a defense for holes with the ball in his hands or pressing ball handlers defensively. Carter-Williams admittedly has a long way to go as a player, but under Kidd's tutelage and within the Bucks' forest of length, there's a better chance for development in Milwaukee than inside of Philadelphia's wretched ecosystem.
If Kidd can do this much this fast with the Bucks defense, it's scary to think how the future could unfold. Imagine Parker as the prodigious scorer, Antetokounmpo as the swiss army knife and Middleton as the prototypical three-and-D guy with Carter-Williams running the show and everyone causing havoc defensively.
Wingspan might not be a market inefficiency for long, but the Bucks just laid a foundation based on length and youth that could be a problem in the East for years
TFIR
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Kupchak: Lakers ready to turn page on Kobe era amid 'prudent' rebuild
Feb. 20, 2015
Updated 9:23 p.m.
BY BILL ORAM / STAFF WRITER
GM Mitch Kupchak said the Lakers can't afford to make Kobe Bryant the focus of their rebuilding effort. 'This team primarily has been Kobe's team now for almost 18 or 20 years,' Kupchak said. 'At some point we have to start a new run.' JONATHAN BACHMAN, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
EL SEGUNDO – The days of the Lakers building a roster to satisfy the needs, and complement the style, of Kobe Bryant are gone.
Just three years removed from the blockbuster summer that brought Steve Nash and Dwight Howard to Los Angeles, one of the Lakers’ top basketball executives said circumstances have dictated that the organization change course.
“This team primarily has been Kobe’s team now for almost 18 or 20 years,” General Manager Mitch Kupchak said in a wide-ranging interview with media, “and we’re much closer to the end of those 18, 20 years than we are to the middle or the beginning. So at some point we have to start a new run."
And while that will presumably include a 37-year-old Bryant next season, the Lakers are not simply planning on reloading this summer to make one more playoff push for the future Hall of Famer’s swan song.
“To jeopardize the next five or seven years,” Kupchak said, “bring in old veterans that make a lot of money, just to win one more year, because that’s Kobe’s last year or could be his last year, I’m not sure that fits into doing it the right way.”
Bryant is out for the season after rotator cuff surgery, which brought an abrupt end to his 19th season 35 games into it. It’s the third straight year Bryant’s season has been ended by injury. Over the past two years he has played in just 41 games, or 25 percent.
The Lakers have won 40 games in that span, and do not appear to be on a course leading to a quick turnaround.
The Lakers were one of the few teams at the bottom of the standings not to make a trade before Thursday’s deadline, although Kupchak said there was “activity” and that management was “ready to do a couple things if it progressed, but it did not.”
Instead, Kupchak talked about being “prudent” and not jeopardizing financial flexibility or draft picks.
“We’re going to look to do this the right way,” Kupchak said, “which is to try to make prudent decisions about youth and veterans and making commitments to players under the existing rules. I’d love to be able to put together a young team that can win 55 games next year, but it’s not that easy.”
Kupchak’s patience does not quite align with comments Bryant made to GQ’s Chuck Klosterman this week. In an extensive Q&A, Bryant made it clear he’s counting on the Lakers to get him back to the playoffs.
“I know what Mitch tells me,” Bryant said. “I know what Jim and Jeanie (Buss) tell me. I know that they are hell-bent about having a championship caliber team next season, as am I.”
To reporters, however, Kupchak was far from militant in pulling off what would amount in the NBA to an overnight transformation.
“It can turn quickly,” he said. “A lot of it’s out of our control, but I do know, if you have picks and you have a lot of financial flexibility there are a lot of ways to improve your team quickly.”
Still, on Thursday coach Byron Scott expressed hope Bryant will play beyond his current contract, which expires after next season. Bryant has maintained throughout the last year, including in the GQ interview, that he has no intention to do so.
Kupchak said it is not a topic he has discussed with the superstar.
“At this point,” he said, “it’s really not something that you would talk about. He just had a very complex surgery and he’s under contract for another year, so he has to get back where he feels he can perform at a high level. That’s like months and months down the road. So to really look beyond that from our point of view is not realistic.”
Feb. 20, 2015
Updated 9:23 p.m.
BY BILL ORAM / STAFF WRITER
GM Mitch Kupchak said the Lakers can't afford to make Kobe Bryant the focus of their rebuilding effort. 'This team primarily has been Kobe's team now for almost 18 or 20 years,' Kupchak said. 'At some point we have to start a new run.' JONATHAN BACHMAN, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
EL SEGUNDO – The days of the Lakers building a roster to satisfy the needs, and complement the style, of Kobe Bryant are gone.
Just three years removed from the blockbuster summer that brought Steve Nash and Dwight Howard to Los Angeles, one of the Lakers’ top basketball executives said circumstances have dictated that the organization change course.
“This team primarily has been Kobe’s team now for almost 18 or 20 years,” General Manager Mitch Kupchak said in a wide-ranging interview with media, “and we’re much closer to the end of those 18, 20 years than we are to the middle or the beginning. So at some point we have to start a new run."
And while that will presumably include a 37-year-old Bryant next season, the Lakers are not simply planning on reloading this summer to make one more playoff push for the future Hall of Famer’s swan song.
“To jeopardize the next five or seven years,” Kupchak said, “bring in old veterans that make a lot of money, just to win one more year, because that’s Kobe’s last year or could be his last year, I’m not sure that fits into doing it the right way.”
Bryant is out for the season after rotator cuff surgery, which brought an abrupt end to his 19th season 35 games into it. It’s the third straight year Bryant’s season has been ended by injury. Over the past two years he has played in just 41 games, or 25 percent.
The Lakers have won 40 games in that span, and do not appear to be on a course leading to a quick turnaround.
The Lakers were one of the few teams at the bottom of the standings not to make a trade before Thursday’s deadline, although Kupchak said there was “activity” and that management was “ready to do a couple things if it progressed, but it did not.”
Instead, Kupchak talked about being “prudent” and not jeopardizing financial flexibility or draft picks.
“We’re going to look to do this the right way,” Kupchak said, “which is to try to make prudent decisions about youth and veterans and making commitments to players under the existing rules. I’d love to be able to put together a young team that can win 55 games next year, but it’s not that easy.”
Kupchak’s patience does not quite align with comments Bryant made to GQ’s Chuck Klosterman this week. In an extensive Q&A, Bryant made it clear he’s counting on the Lakers to get him back to the playoffs.
“I know what Mitch tells me,” Bryant said. “I know what Jim and Jeanie (Buss) tell me. I know that they are hell-bent about having a championship caliber team next season, as am I.”
To reporters, however, Kupchak was far from militant in pulling off what would amount in the NBA to an overnight transformation.
“It can turn quickly,” he said. “A lot of it’s out of our control, but I do know, if you have picks and you have a lot of financial flexibility there are a lot of ways to improve your team quickly.”
Still, on Thursday coach Byron Scott expressed hope Bryant will play beyond his current contract, which expires after next season. Bryant has maintained throughout the last year, including in the GQ interview, that he has no intention to do so.
Kupchak said it is not a topic he has discussed with the superstar.
“At this point,” he said, “it’s really not something that you would talk about. He just had a very complex surgery and he’s under contract for another year, so he has to get back where he feels he can perform at a high level. That’s like months and months down the road. So to really look beyond that from our point of view is not realistic.”
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Funniest headline in years... the bolded part is golden.
JaVale McGee wants to be a mentor for younger Sixers
By James Herbert | NBA writer
February 23, 2015 7:16 pm ET
JaVale McGee isn't trying to get out of Philly. (USATSI)
JaVale McGee doesn't want a buyout. He wants to stay with the Philadelphia 76ers and -- you're going to love this -- help mentor their young big men. From the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey:
"I don't want to get bought out," said McGee, a 27-year-old in his seventh NBA season. "That's not a positive thing. When you think about it, you don't get all of your money when you get bought out.
"So it doesn't make sense why someone would want to get bought out unless they are older - older and they want to go to a contender or something. I'm not that old. I just want to play basketball."
McGee also sees this as an opportunity to mentor rookie centers Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid. In addition to backing up Noel, McGee said he can help with the young players' confidence.
"When I was with the Wizards, I think it was my sophomore year, we won like 19 games," he said. "So I've been in the same situation. I've just definitely got to get these young guys' heads into it where they stay positive, keep playing hard, just look for wins and [learn] how to win."
McGee was traded to Philadelphia by the Denver Nuggets at last Thursday's trade deadline. The Sixers received a first-round pick for taking on his deal. It was widely assumed that they would buy him out, but that hasn't happened. It looks like they'll give him a chance to play, and this is actually a great chance for him. He logged 11 minutes on Friday against Indiana and 13 on Sunday in Orlando.
Philly head coach Brett Brown told reporters that the team has an open mind about McGee and he told him to take advantage of this opportunity. He fell out of favor in Denver and is certainly not looked at as the high-ceiling player he was when he signed his four-year, $44 million deal in 2012. McGee likely doesn't have a long-term future in Philadelphia, but if he wants to get his career back on track, he needs to leave a good impression there.
Smash cut to all the Sixers fans...
JaVale McGee wants to be a mentor for younger Sixers
By James Herbert | NBA writer
February 23, 2015 7:16 pm ET
JaVale McGee isn't trying to get out of Philly. (USATSI)
JaVale McGee doesn't want a buyout. He wants to stay with the Philadelphia 76ers and -- you're going to love this -- help mentor their young big men. From the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey:
"I don't want to get bought out," said McGee, a 27-year-old in his seventh NBA season. "That's not a positive thing. When you think about it, you don't get all of your money when you get bought out.
"So it doesn't make sense why someone would want to get bought out unless they are older - older and they want to go to a contender or something. I'm not that old. I just want to play basketball."
McGee also sees this as an opportunity to mentor rookie centers Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid. In addition to backing up Noel, McGee said he can help with the young players' confidence.
"When I was with the Wizards, I think it was my sophomore year, we won like 19 games," he said. "So I've been in the same situation. I've just definitely got to get these young guys' heads into it where they stay positive, keep playing hard, just look for wins and [learn] how to win."
McGee was traded to Philadelphia by the Denver Nuggets at last Thursday's trade deadline. The Sixers received a first-round pick for taking on his deal. It was widely assumed that they would buy him out, but that hasn't happened. It looks like they'll give him a chance to play, and this is actually a great chance for him. He logged 11 minutes on Friday against Indiana and 13 on Sunday in Orlando.
Philly head coach Brett Brown told reporters that the team has an open mind about McGee and he told him to take advantage of this opportunity. He fell out of favor in Denver and is certainly not looked at as the high-ceiling player he was when he signed his four-year, $44 million deal in 2012. McGee likely doesn't have a long-term future in Philadelphia, but if he wants to get his career back on track, he needs to leave a good impression there.
Smash cut to all the Sixers fans...